Very Good Breakdown of Cowboys Recent Signings

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Are the Cowboys still a team pushing guaranteed money into the back ends of contracts, dooming future salary caps to bloated contracts and cap penalties, or are they now a team oriented toward the future--sensibly structuring deals that allow them to cut ties with little obligation? By analyzing some of the Cowboys recent signings, we'll learn the answers to these and other questions.

First, we'll take a look at the contract that had Cowboys nation talking: the Scandrick deal.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2012...have-they-learned-from-past-contract-blunders

 

[Idgit]

Give us a few minutes to find something to get upset about.

 

[sureletsrace]

Give us a few minutes to find something to get upset about.

Post of the Millenium. Board closed. You sir have won the internet.

 

[tomson75]

Give us a few minutes to find something to get upset about.

:laugh2:

Although you have severely underestimated the realists. Their qualms are built-in to any topic. Quite convenient, really.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Give us a few minutes to find something to get upset about.

I intentionally did not mention who was responsible or what the conclusion of the piece was. If i do i bet I can drum up some response. Shall we try?

 

[Eskimo]

The structure of the contracts does look much better but my issue is the valuation of the starters and the continual refusal to sign young players to extensions early in their deals at a bargain valuation in exchange for the player's financial security. We don't do it and most other top contenders do so they don't expose their core to FA where they get massive valuations.

The other thing that drives me crazy is huge contracts to declining veterans - we gave a really dumb one to Ratliff last year when he had 2 years left on his existing deal and was coming off a down year. Well he went out and had an even worse year as a pass rusher and now we're on the hook for a few more years. I think the deal for Sensy was reasonable but he really overpaid a JAG in Scandrick because he looked good in TC - well he was still a JAG during the season. He is also a zone corner playing in a man defensive scheme.

I'll forgive him if his scouts can keep finding Sean Lees, Tyron Smiths, Dez Bryants and Demarco Murrays like he has done the past 2 drafts but we have to get better at the FA and extension game if we want to be able to keep the nucleus intact at a manageable cost.

 

[Apollo Creed]

Awesome article. Really gives perspective on how we view these guys as 'stop-gaps' and are hell bent on churning the bottom of the roster. We really aren't in near as bad as shape as I thought we were in before reading that article. Those contracts are all structured with the idea that these guys will be replaced in a year or two. And if they produce, they can be signed at a managable and reasonable rate. Either way, no more years of having 30 mil in dead money being paid to guys that are no loner in the league. Props to whomever quarterbacked this whole offseason, seems they had a plan and executed.

Give us a few minutes to find something to get upset about.

Winning.

 

[theogt]

That is a very good breakdown. The bar charts are a nice visualization of the impact of the contract.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The structure of the contracts does look much better but my issue is the valuation of the starters and the continual refusal to sign young players to extensions early in their deals at a bargain valuation in exchange for the player's financial security. We don't do it and most other top contenders do so they don't expose their core to FA where they get massive valuations.

The other thing that drives me crazy is huge contracts to declining veterans - we gave a really dumb one to Ratliff last year when he had 2 years left on his existing deal and was coming off a down year. Well he went out and had an even worse year as a pass rusher and now we're on the hook for a few more years. I think the deal for Sensy was reasonable but he really overpaid a JAG in Scandrick because he looked good in TC - well he was still a JAG during the season. He is also a zone corner playing in a man defensive scheme.

I'll forgive him if his scouts can keep finding Sean Lees, Tyron Smiths, Dez Bryants and Demarco Murrays like he has done the past 2 drafts but we have to get better at the FA and extension game if we want to be able to keep the nucleus intact at a manageable cost.

It would be nice to see them sign up Lee and Lissemore but who do you have in mind that thye could have done that with? The only people of significance that meet that criteria now are Jenkins, Jones and Spencer. I can understand the reluctance to commitment there.

I would also counter that with Ratliff's contract. I know you disapprove of the recent value because its more than the value of his second contract but hes been paid under market value his entire career.

 

[theogt]

The structure of the contracts does look much better but my issue is the valuation of the starters and the continual refusal to sign young players to extensions early in their deals at a bargain valuation in exchange for the player's financial security. We don't do it and most other top contenders do so they don't expose their core to FA where they get massive valuations.

The other thing that drives me crazy is huge contracts to declining veterans - we gave a really dumb one to Ratliff last year when he had 2 years left on his existing deal and was coming off a down year. Well he went out and had an even worse year as a pass rusher and now we're on the hook for a few more years. I think the deal for Sensy was reasonable but he really overpaid a JAG in Scandrick because he looked good in TC - well he was still a JAG during the season. He is also a zone corner playing in a man defensive scheme.

I'll forgive him if his scouts can keep finding Sean Lees, Tyron Smiths, Dez Bryants and Demarco Murrays like he has done the past 2 drafts but we have to get better at the FA and extension game if we want to be able to keep the nucleus intact at a manageable cost.

Damn. A 4 sack/26 pressure season is a "down year" for a 3-4 NT? Sheesh, that's some lofty expectations.

I'm curious. You said "declining veterans", as in plural. How many other "declining veterans" have been signed to big contracts by Jerry recently?

 

[big dog cowboy]

Great article.

 

[Bluestang]

I absolutely loved this article when I read a few hours ago. It clearly breaks down the contract in a easy graphical representation so the average person can see the value.

Another thing that this article does is back up what some of us were saying about the FA aquisitions after there were a few threads started concerning the amount of money they were guaranteed. Most of the money is given upfront so that the front office can essentially cut bait early on if they underperform.

 

[CowboyMike]

Give us a few minutes to find something to get upset about.

 

[Eskimo]

It would be nice to see them sign up Lee and Lissemore but who do you have in mind that thye could have done that with? The only people of significance that meet that criteria now are Jenkins, Jones and Spencer. I can understand the reluctance to commitment there.

I would also counter that with Ratliff's contract. I know you disapprove of the recent value because its more than the value of his second contract but hes been paid under market value his entire career.

Well of those 3 I would certainly try to re-sign Felix but we need to do it now and not during the season to get the savings and keep him out of the market.

With Jenkins we got caught here. He played bad in 2010 but otherwise that would have been the time. Then 2011 he was great but injured the whole year and then had reconstructive surgery so we need him to re-establish his health. In all honesty, I'm not crazy about re-signing him for $11M/yr because I don't think you should have two such highly paid CBs on one team as it robs from all the other roster positions. I"m okay with one premium CB but not two. If we hadn't signed Carr and Jenkins weren't injured last year and we wanted to keep him he should have been re-signed in the last half of last year.

As for Spencer, this has been a colossal mistake. He is not a premium player and we should not have franchised him. Thankfully he has not yet signed the tender. He is not the player we need at that position in this defense so it is a waste to overpay him when we need to be looking for a catalytic player to play the spot. We have been distracted by the fact that "he is okay" and have taken our eye off the ball of creating a good defense. So instead of locking Spencer up early we should have been looking for his replacement. We still have the opportunity to do the right thing and draft his replacement and then release him before the tender is signed. I'd like Ingram if he falls but otherwise I'd trade back and take Whitney, Branch or McClellin in the mid-20s or if we're daring and a tonne are on the board dropping into the late 20s or even early 30s. Part of that decision will depend on who we think can fall and how we value them.

As for Ratliff being underpaid for much of his career - that is how you build a quality roster. He is one of the few whose contract we have handled properly. We should have let him play out his deal and then let him compete in the free market next offseason. If we wanted him back we probably could have signed him for $3M/yr next offseason after he shows his pass rusher burst is all but gone this season. He is still a decent player and a good presence on the team because of his intensity but he is now way overpaid and has a bunch of guaranteed money. If Jerry wanted to reward him for being underpaid, he can pay him $20M out of his pocket once Rat is retired from the game or give him some cushy job at $5M/yr. Just don't waste our cap dollars on a declining vet.

The Witten deal is very borderline to me as well. He definitely slowed down a bunch last year. I think we're about to see that he isn't an offensive force anymore this year. His blocking has also fallen off a cliff. He has taken too much abuse, I'm afraid. I'm still hoping he uses his grit and gives us 3 more productive years using his smarts and body to shield off defenders and make tough catches. We probably should start looking for a receiving TE in this draft in case a good one drops to us and represents value. What I don't want is another blocking TE in the second round.

Jones has to think about the players as a business and not get so personal with them. When he isn't getting full value from them he has to be ready to step away. He has to structure contracts so we haven't wasted too much money in the frontload with big roster bonuses just so that we can cut them later - it is still wasted money no matter whether it is wasted at the start or at the end in dead money. The key is getting good value and not paying aged players without a major discount built in for expected decline in skills - don't pay for past performance.

 

[cowboy_ron]

Give us a few minutes to find something to get upset about.

:laugh2:

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Spencer's tender has no impact beyond this season. As for long term roster building it has no impact. Ratliff makes $8m AAV now and top DT make over $10m like Ngata, Seymour and lesser players like McCoy.

I get what you are saying but we are never going to approach things like SD and we are not mindless spenders like Washington.

The only 'bad' deal that i can agree with currently considering what FA prices are is Austin and that is only a negative if Mara's punishment holds up.

 

[28 Joker]

The overrated and overvaluing of players like Orlando Scandrick is beyond frustrating as a fan. I have a hard time believing that a player like Scandrick could bag $ 10 million guaranteed on the open market. I don't get the justification there. I would have let him test the market and dared someone to overpay him.

Joselio Hanson was a more accomplished nickel player with the Eagles (on the field) when he signed his deal, and he received a deal like this:

5 Years
$ 21 million dollars
$ 6.4 million guaranteed
$ 2.275 SB

The Eagles cut him after two years and re-signed him after they acquired more CBs. Hanson signed his deal in 2009.

Giving Jay Ratliff almost $ 20 million guaranteed after the team received 3 bargain years (2007, 2008, and 2009) was a head scratching move, too. Ratliff was coming off a significant decline in his play (2010). Ratliff will turn 31 this year, and being under-sized at NT, appears to have clearly caught up with him. He's clearly not the player that he was in 2008 and 2009, and his recent pro bowl status is a mirage. I can see why the Cowboys want a young, impact defensive linemen like Michael Brockers or Fletcher Cox.

Courtney Upshaw looks better and better when I see Anthony Spencer about to bag $ 8.8 million dollars for one season. I wouldn't be upset with Upshaw at this point. Jason Garrett stated that he was moving around really good at his pro day by the way. The dude is mean, too.

The fiasco that was the Roy E. Williams trade (lost draft picks) and huge contract just keeps on giving (see Miles Austin overvalued and overpaid and woefully under-performing with the NFC East on the line).

Why didn't the Cowboys allow Doug Free to replace Marc Colombo? When Free stepped in at RT (during 2009), he was clearly ready to play and played well. Colombo wasn't above being replaced if a younger, cheaper, more athletic player was waiting in the wings (a 4th round pick). Instead, Colombo received a $ 22 million dollar deal ($ 11 million guaranteed). The Eagles drove Free's price up on Dallas.

The Cowboys have made some big mistakes during the past four years, and we shall see how they respond during this draft and before the season starts. The team is clearly re-building on the run, and a wildcard could be tough to get in the NFC East.

On the flip side, I really like the Mackenzy Bernadeau and Nate Livings signings. I think Bernadeau has a really good chance to be a good player at LG. I'd love to see Peter Konz drafted, but it looks bleak. Tyron Smith is now the 21 year old, blue-chip cornerstone of the offensive line, and he will probably be Dallas' best player very soon. Smith's birthday is in late December, too. The offensive line looks good. Doug Free should be able to return to RT and do a good job. Center is still a concern, though. Another guard in the pipe-line wouldn't hurt (behind Livings), either. You couldn't ask for a better player than Tyron Smith to build your offensive line on, so I'm very pleased about Tyron wearing that star. Furthermore, I'm looking forward to seeing Tyron dominate the NFL for many years to come. Can't wait for Felix Jones to run behind Tyron on that left side.

Obviously, DeMarcus Ware is worth every penny that he gets, and the Cowboys took care of him pretty recently. Jason Witten is worth $ 19 million guaranteed to me.

You know, I look at some of the names which I have high-lighted above, and I think about December 11, 2011. Where were some of those high-priced players which I have high-lighted above?

New York Giants @ Dallas

NFC East on the line...By far, the biggest game of the year for Dallas...a real opportunity lost..One of the worst losses that I've ever seen....

Felix Jones exploded and delivered the goods to Jason Garrett when it mattered the most, once again. If the FB executes a fundamental trap block on Jason Pierre-Paul, Jones puts that game on ice. There is no telling how far Jones runs. The Giants are not winning the Super Bowl. The effort by the fullback was very, very poor. Jones gained 5 yards (inside) on the same zone bend running play (on the previous play). John Phillips made a decent trap block on Pierre-Paul on that play. Felix Jones was able to stiff-arm Pierre-Paul through the hole (earlier in the game) and gain 10 yards, because John Phillips had a decent enough trap block on Pierre-Paul (bend-x).

16-106 (6.6 YPC)

22 Touches 137 Total Yards

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Dare I ask how much guaranteed you think Felix is worth, Joker? I also think you oerstate the impact that the signing bonus have. As the article points out the deal is not prohibitive. The Cowboys have a monetary advantage but the only was of using it is by guaranteeing more money of the first few years. Frontloading.

 

[CF74]

Sensabaugh may be a goner soon...:laugh2:

 

[Eskimo]

Damn. A 4 sack/26 pressure season is a "down year" for a 3-4 NT? Sheesh, that's some lofty expectations.

I'm curious. You said "declining veterans", as in plural. How many other "declining veterans" have been signed to big contracts by Jerry recently?

There is a trend of decreasing production, though. I also don't see Rat routinely being disruptive anymore. He also gets a large chunk of his pass rush production out of his DT role in the nickel where he acts more as a 3-tech DT so you have to discout a good chunk of the "NT" pass rush production.

He also gives something up as a plugger up the middle compared to most 3-4 NTs so he has to make it up on the pass rush end of things. He was much worse this past year in this regard than prior years. We got gashed up the middle quite a few times.

The other vet who has started to decline is Witten but his decline really only started after the extension so he is only a partial inclusion. I don't think Witten is overpaid at present but I do worry about how far he appeared to drop off last year compared to previous seasons. He made 3 big plays so this markedly skews his ypc but he was not the same threat down the field on the intermediate depth routes as in the past. This is a large part about what had made him special as a receiving TE and I worry that part of his game may be gone now. His blocking was also at best average so he is not a major asset in that regard anymore in the all-around game.

Sensy got a fair deal. I don't have any major complaints with that one. He plays all the downs, covers the TEs, tackles, plays special teams. He has been very durable and dependable. $4.5M/yr is a fair deal for him.

Scandrick was overpaid and doesn't fit the scheme and his deal was a mistake. It was also a big mistake to leave Josh Thomas exposed on the PS last year as he could have been challenging for that role this year. Instead we kept Allen Ball and signed Frank Walker who have no future with us.

This FO has to do better with bringing in value on the contract end of things. The FA signings last year were good. The contract extensions were a bit of a miss overall. The Spencer situation has been bungled on multiple levels.