Waldo and Twitch look at some players: DE's

Macnalty

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Very simplistic formula making some bold predictions. Perfect fodder while we wait for the draft in 7 weeks and two days.

You can read about it here. http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=439601

Generally, elite athletic position players are broken down into 2 prototypes.

  • Explosive - This player is big, heavy and does exceptional in vert/broad.

  • Twitch - This player is usually not as big and heavy, but does exceptional in 3 cone (< 7sec) and in shuttle and 10 yard split.
Players that excel in either have a fantastic chance of success in the NFL. Almost guaranteed pro bowl success rate for elite explosive and 70% pro bowl success for elite twitch.

Anyone with a 1.05 or higher "explosive power" score (which basically uses Vert and broad jump, compared to Weight/Height to gauge a player's explosive power), have had an extremely good chance (~80%) of not only succeeding in the NFL but being a pro bowl or > quality player. This number is pretty much a threshold, either your above 1.05, or you're not in the same group.

Another player type that has nearly as great chance of success that has very low risk value is someone that both has a twitch score of under 1.1, and has a sub-7.0s 3 cone time.

Players with Explosive Power rating > 1.05:

  • Myles Garrett 1.13
  • Larry Ogunjobi 1.071
  • Elijah Qualls 1.066
  • D.J. Jones 1.054
Near misses and next best:

  • Solomon Thomas 1.045
  • Jordan Willis 1.013
Players with a Twitch Score < 1.1 and 3 cone < 7 seconds:

  • Pita Taumoepenu 1.07, 6.91
  • Solomon Thomas 1.02, 6.95
  • **Jordan Willis 7.36, 6.85
Near misses, next best:

  • **Haason Reddick 7.55, 7.01
  • Trey Hendrickson 1.01, 7.03
  • Deatrich Wise 1.06, 7.07
  • Taco Charlton 1.06, 7.17
  • Garrett Sickels 1.09, 7.21
  • Daeshon Hall 1.11, 7.03
  • Jordan Willis 1.14, 6.85

  • Derek Barnett 1.14, 6.96

  • Dawuane Smoot 1.11, 7.18

  • Carroll Phillips 1.13, 7.06
With these guys twitch next best guys, your chances of getting a decent starter or back is pretty good, but that is overwhelmingly their likely ceiling. Trey Henderson is very close though.

Some thoughts

  • Garrett is as advertised and worthy of a #1 pick.

  • Solomon Thomas barely misses out on the explosive elite and makes the twitch elite with a VERY good twitch score. Extremely good, given his weight. I'd put him 2nd to Garrett and then daylight to Taumoepenu. Then a bit more daylight after.

  • Derek Barnett was sick. If he was healthy how much better could he have done? His 3 cone was good enough for a healthy guy. He was let down by his 20 ss, where to make the grade, he'd have to run .15 faster than his 4.45 20 ss. Is this possible? Maybe? I'd guess it would be close and he might just get there, depending on how badly it affected him.

  • This year there is no one really close enough on Explosive Power rating this year, where given their height, if they put on a little more weight, they'd make the grade. Last year, we had Leonard Floyd who fit that category. After a year, he seems to be at a more effective weight, so watch out for him this year!

  • Jordan Willis** is probably too far away with his explosive rating. But did a very good 3 cone (6.85). It looks like he breaks the twitch rating. Him and very nearly Reddick can move to the top twitch group ratings.
 

rkell87

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How are most guys around 1 or less but 2 guys are at 7
 

Macnalty

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Big, strong powerful guys (explosive rating) and agile guys (twitch rating).
 

Macnalty

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Do not take these ratings too seriously it is just for guys into the draft talking at 4 in the morning.
 

gmoney112

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thats_cool_burn_after_reading.gif
 

Deep_Freeze

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Wise shows up on there, wonder if the Pats will dig for that like they did Trey Flowers.
 

BAT

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Looks like Pita Taumoepenu is the hidden gem. But what is the first number (explosive rating) really supposed to be by the way for Reddick?

  • **Haason Reddick 7.55, 7.01
 

gmoney112

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Hoping Barnett finds a way to 28.

There's only a couple of guys i'd say are worth a pick at 28 over trading down to try and get mo' picks in this draft
 
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