jday
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Imagine, if you will, a counter-balance. And if your imagination fails you…
If ever there was an image that aptly expresses this year’s iteration of the Dallas Cowboys, this is it folks. Whether you’re discussing the balance between good news and bad, the balance between youth and veterans, or the balance in attack on both sides of the ball, the Dallas Cowboys will be walking a tight-rope in 2018, I think we can all agree, regardless of your net balance opinion. By the way, when you take all the good feelings you have and subtract from that all the bad feelings you have as it pertains to the Cowboys, the result is your net balance opinion.
For example, my net balance opinion is that the Cowboys will at the very least be entertaining in the 2018 NFL season. For many of you reading this right now, that’s not saying a whole lot; especially if you follow my work…I have said that quite a few times in the last couple of months. But that really is the most honest forecast I can offer at the moment. I both see how this team could be dominant and how they could plummet into the abyss of mediocrity once again. I believe they have all the ingredients necessary to dominate the league, but I also recognize that at all times they will be one play away from total and complete collapse.
We all saw what happened when certain players were injured or suspended last year; the entire complexion of the team changed from one play to the next. It was abrupt and finalized in a matter of seconds. The moment Sean Lee was out of the lineup the Cowboys defense went from top 10 consideration to bottom 5. When Tyron Smith played injured and/or left the lineup, the Cowboys morphed from 30 points per game to trying to win games with a collection of Field Goals. When Zeke was suspended, Rod Smith and Alfred Morris made a valiant effort replacing him, but ultimately defenses did not fear them and were subsequently able to devote more resources to clogging up passing lanes as opposed to running lanes, making life impossible to improbable for one Dak Prescott.
This is just a hindsight hunch, but losing those three players from the lineup was the difference between what happened and a deep run into the playoffs. The fascinating aspect of that reality is without Sean Lee/Tyron Smith’s perspective injuries and Zeke’s suspension happening, our collective perspective going into 2018 would be completely different and on a whole, pretty positive even if the Cowboys hadn’t been able to snag a championship (or two) and the following members of the organization would not be walking a tightrope of their own:
Jason Garrett:
If the Dallas Cowboys were a murder weapon, Garrett would be locked away for a long time; his finger prints are all over this team. That, in itself, is a very important consideration when deciding your net balance opinion of him. Speaking for myself (and Me and I), I love this team’s roster given its current construction. Perhaps one of the greatest indicators you will find of good leadership is when you see the players parroting the coach. From that you can glean a number of things but most importantly that the message is being received and sinking in; the players have bought in to what Garrett is selling.
Where the wheels tend to fall off for Garrett has been in-game time management (though, it has been awhile since one of these gaffes have come to light), implementation of an effective game plan, and in-game adjustments (one report indicating that he is quite stubborn about sticking to the script even when the opposition is reading along). However, were it not for the aforementioned injuries and suspension, Garrett would likely be safe beyond 2018. As it is, he is very much on the hot seat and I suspect his cronies Linehan/Marinelli will be following him out the door if 2018 is a continuation of what we saw at the end of 2017.
The tight rope he walks hinges on a few things (much of which I’ve outlined in greater detail already this offseason): Will he get out of his own way and discontinue trying to fit his players into the scheme as opposed to fitting his scheme around his players? Will he steal a page out of Doug Pederson’s book and take more chances in 2018? Will he remain stubborn and hard headed in the face of losses and continually refuse to make adjustments?
Garrett controls his own destiny. If he makes it across this wire, the results from this season could carry him far into his coaching career. But, if he doesn’t watch his step, the fall could be devastating to his chances at future coaching jobs, especially as a head coach.
Dak Prescott:
What a difference a year can make, eh? Last year at this same time Dak was actually drawing Brady comparisons. A year ago Dak Prescott was labeled #14 in all the NFL.com annual top 100 list; a list compiled using the opinion of Dak’s peers. This year, were there a bottom 100, you could bet Dak might just be a member, were it not for the inflated view of starting quarterbacks, in general.
For those of us who have watched Dak closely, we all know that last year was not a sophomore slump. Dak actually played fairly well up until the Atlanta Falcon game, where he was abused to the tune of 10 sacks and consequently was not the same to close out the season. But, at the same time, even before the Atlanta game, something did seem off as compared to his 2016 campaign where he took the world by storm. I won’t hazard a guess as to what was off, but I do think it is safe to say his issues were mental, not physical, which is an important distinction to make when deciding what he will be in 2018.
I feel by this point we should know he can make all the throws; albeit some throws are not as consistent or accurate as we would like, such as the back-shoulder fade. He can hang in the pocket with excellent poise, keeping his eyes down field and off of the passrush. He can manufacture time with his feet and even tuck and run on occasion, having excellent spatial awareness that allows him to create room to run despite not being particularly fast. And we know he is a leader of men, which similar to the Head Coach position, is more than half of the battle for a franchise leading quarterback.
Where Dak has struggled predominantly is maintaining good feet position upon throwing the football, feeling the rush and (especially towards the end), he rushed his throws due to what I believe was a loss of faith in his protection. The end result was inaccuracy, being sacked a whole bunch, more than double the interceptions from a year ago, and a dink & dunk offense that bore a striking resemblance to the offense when Brandon Weeden was behind center in 2015.
Again, the downfall of Dak a year ago I still believe to be mostly mental and highlights my concern for the upcoming season; can he regain that eye of the tiger he had in 2016? I haven’t the foggiest, but until he answers that question, 2018 will be a tightrope that decides if he is the face of the franchise for the foreseeable future or yet another Cowboys quarterback cautionary tale.
Sean Lee:
It boils down to whether or not Sean Lee can stay healthy. Nationally and locally Sean Lee is recognized as easily a top 10 linebacker when he is actually on the field. But he is perennially denied this recognition due to his lack of overall availability.
Where it not for a career marred by constantly being injured, Sean Lee would absolutely be in the conversation for best Dallas Cowboys linebacker ever. I say that without hesitation because as sad as last year was to watch in his absence, I can’t ignore the fact that unlike anything I’ve ever seen before in my history of watching football, Sean was the difference between the Cowboys defense being considered dominant and being regarded as a wet paper sack. Teams averaged under 20 points when Lee started and over 30 points in his absence. That, ladies and gentlemen, is a staggering difference without parallel available in my recent memory. Can anyone recall a player meaning that much to one side of the ball?
And yet, he is now over 30 and I suspect as far as the front office is concerned they are fed up with being held hostage by Humpty Dumpty and his many great falls. The tightrope Sean Lee walks, at a guess, lies between remaining healthy for at least 14 games or retiring and donning a coach’s whistle on the sideline where he most likely belongs.
Ezekiel Elliott:
Where to begin? There are a couple of tightropes Zeke walks concurrently. One is of course the dark cloud that will forever follow his career like an unwanted ugly lost puppy; one more Domestic Violence case could end his career…and as we all witnessed in 2017, being actually guilty as defined by the laws of this land is not necessary to seal that deal. All it takes is pissing off the wrong woman; something I’ve managed to do without even trying plenty of times in my 40 years and almost every day for the last 12.
The other issue, like his good buddy Dak, is mental. Last year we all noted the pictures of him to begin training camp…he was clearly out of shape. At the time I dismissed it because I knew that over the course of training camp he would shed the weight and to be honest felt that the extra padding was likely by design. After all, if he had shown up to training camp cut and defined, all the work he would put in going forward would burn muscle not fat, which is the last thing you want for a guy whose best attribute is getting that inch when all you need is an inch.
But when the season began, he still seemed heavy and it showed. He was not nearly as fast getting to his top speed as he demonstrated at various times in 2016 (60 yard run vs Bengals / 83 yard screen vs Steelers). As the 2017 season progressed, he slowly regained his speed, but unfortunately just as he was beginning to hit his stride, the suspension was enforced. While he did return in great physical shape after serving that suspension, he still wasn’t the same player we were hoping for; particularly against the Seahawks when the Cowboys were fighting to keep their playoff chances alive.
Following the upcoming mini-camp, the true black hole of the offseason begins. Aside from the lack of NFL-related news making this period one of the worst stretches for a football fan in the offseason, this is also the time of the year where player stupidity tends to run rampant. Thus far, Zeke has for the most part remained out of the lime-light. But the true test is coming: Can he stay out of trouble and in shape to be ready for training camp?
I expect he has learned his lesson, but with Dez ousted and Witten preparing to enter the booth, Zeke is without question the last offensive star standing here in Dallas, so his presence is now critical. The Cowboys team as a whole will likely go as he goes and if he’s not on the field, they will struggle.
Byron Jones:
Dependent on what Byron is being asked to do, he is both regarded as a stud and a dud. Those who have grown to hate him forget what life before him was like for the Cowboys. There was a time the Cowboys had zero answers for the pass-catching TE and as such, they were routinely gashed by that brand of player. Since the addition of Byron, the pass-catching TE tends to disappear.
Where Byron has struggled is the role of enforcer in run support. Missed tackles, poor angles taken to the ball, and an occasional inability to get off blocks have reared their ugly head an embarrassing number of times and as a result the Cowboys are moving him back to corner where he should excel; it stands to reason that if the best thing he does is cover and moving to corner means doing more of what he does best then he should be just fine. Add to that the Cowboys picked up his 5th year option, therefore, he likely has at least 2 years left to prove he still belongs, despite the position change.
The high line he walks is unique. If he can’t nail down either the #1 or #2 corner spots in training camp / preseason, he will likely be buried on the depth chart behind Chidobe Awuzie, Jourdan Lewis, and Anthony Brown. They may consider moving him back to safety, but based on what I know so far of Kris Richard, he may get buried there as well behind Jeff Heath, Xavier Woods (who is a big reason behind Byron’s switch from FS to Corner in the first place) and Kavon Frazier. Either way, despite having his fifth year option picked up, Byron is clearly walking a tight rope between potential NFL stardom and forgotten special teams contributor.
Allen Hurns:
I’d say it’s rare for a guy with his limited credentials to come into a team and immediately be expected to be the #1 wide receiver; he has one year of demonstrating #1 caliber stats on his resume that is 2 years in his rearview. The last 2 years have been marked by constant injury (sound familiar?). Early indications from OTA’s suggest while he may not completely replace Dez, he should at the very least be solid in his efforts. However, like Byron Jones, there are several hopefuls behind him that would like nothing better than to contribute to him being buried on the depth chart.
The potential pitfalls for Hurns are similar to that of Byron because if he is unable to claim the starting #1 or #2 positions, he will likely fall to the fifth position because both Beasley and Austin likely have the slot locked up. Unlike Byron, if he fails to claim the #1 or #2, there is a chance (albeit ridiculously small) he doesn’t make the team. While I seriously doubt there is a receiver capable of stealing his mantle as it stands, he certainly is not above and immune to being Wally-Pipped. Dependent on the seriousness of the injury and their confidence in the players behind him, a settlement may very well follow.
Demarcus Lawrence:
For three years prior to last year we listened to Marinelli gush about Demarcus Lawrence. He was proclaimed to be by far the best passrusher on the team. In the aftermath of each season we were treated to the various excuses as to why he had not reached his potential; playing through injuries being chief among them.
Last year we finally were treated to a demonstration of what Marinelli has been talking about. Demarcus “Tank” Lawrence finally earned his nickname, garnering 14.5 sacks, 58 tackles 23 of which were assist. Tank went from marginally solid to unstoppable and relentless pressure player almost overnight. The problem for the front office was they had one year of elite level play exercised in a contract year balanced against 3 years of simply not doing enough to be considered for a second contract.
Currently signed under the Franchise tag ($ 17 million) with an opportunity to prove his worthyness, I have wondered throughout the offseason if Demarcus Lawrence will continue to work like he hasn’t got paid yet. The tight rope he walks offers up two potential fall offs: he can either stopping working like he’s already got paid or the injury-bug that plagued his first 3 years of professional football will rear its ugly head again and likely end any chance of the long-term deal he is likely pursuing.
Wrap It Up
I’m sure most of you realize I could have kept on going; at a guess, every player currently on the 90-man roster feels as though they are on a tight rope. In a matter of months, 37 players will be released and once again searching for a job; several of which may even abandon their dream to play in the NFL and join the depressed ranks of the working class like you and me. So, like I said, I very easily could have wrote a book, but due to size limitations on this site, I narrowed my focal points down to a few potentially key players to the end of the year results.
Dependent on the reception of the above, I may opt to continue this as a series touching on various players and coaches for the remainder of the offseason…so let me know if that type of dialogue would interest you.
Thoughts?
If ever there was an image that aptly expresses this year’s iteration of the Dallas Cowboys, this is it folks. Whether you’re discussing the balance between good news and bad, the balance between youth and veterans, or the balance in attack on both sides of the ball, the Dallas Cowboys will be walking a tight-rope in 2018, I think we can all agree, regardless of your net balance opinion. By the way, when you take all the good feelings you have and subtract from that all the bad feelings you have as it pertains to the Cowboys, the result is your net balance opinion.
For example, my net balance opinion is that the Cowboys will at the very least be entertaining in the 2018 NFL season. For many of you reading this right now, that’s not saying a whole lot; especially if you follow my work…I have said that quite a few times in the last couple of months. But that really is the most honest forecast I can offer at the moment. I both see how this team could be dominant and how they could plummet into the abyss of mediocrity once again. I believe they have all the ingredients necessary to dominate the league, but I also recognize that at all times they will be one play away from total and complete collapse.
We all saw what happened when certain players were injured or suspended last year; the entire complexion of the team changed from one play to the next. It was abrupt and finalized in a matter of seconds. The moment Sean Lee was out of the lineup the Cowboys defense went from top 10 consideration to bottom 5. When Tyron Smith played injured and/or left the lineup, the Cowboys morphed from 30 points per game to trying to win games with a collection of Field Goals. When Zeke was suspended, Rod Smith and Alfred Morris made a valiant effort replacing him, but ultimately defenses did not fear them and were subsequently able to devote more resources to clogging up passing lanes as opposed to running lanes, making life impossible to improbable for one Dak Prescott.
This is just a hindsight hunch, but losing those three players from the lineup was the difference between what happened and a deep run into the playoffs. The fascinating aspect of that reality is without Sean Lee/Tyron Smith’s perspective injuries and Zeke’s suspension happening, our collective perspective going into 2018 would be completely different and on a whole, pretty positive even if the Cowboys hadn’t been able to snag a championship (or two) and the following members of the organization would not be walking a tightrope of their own:
Jason Garrett:
If the Dallas Cowboys were a murder weapon, Garrett would be locked away for a long time; his finger prints are all over this team. That, in itself, is a very important consideration when deciding your net balance opinion of him. Speaking for myself (and Me and I), I love this team’s roster given its current construction. Perhaps one of the greatest indicators you will find of good leadership is when you see the players parroting the coach. From that you can glean a number of things but most importantly that the message is being received and sinking in; the players have bought in to what Garrett is selling.
Where the wheels tend to fall off for Garrett has been in-game time management (though, it has been awhile since one of these gaffes have come to light), implementation of an effective game plan, and in-game adjustments (one report indicating that he is quite stubborn about sticking to the script even when the opposition is reading along). However, were it not for the aforementioned injuries and suspension, Garrett would likely be safe beyond 2018. As it is, he is very much on the hot seat and I suspect his cronies Linehan/Marinelli will be following him out the door if 2018 is a continuation of what we saw at the end of 2017.
The tight rope he walks hinges on a few things (much of which I’ve outlined in greater detail already this offseason): Will he get out of his own way and discontinue trying to fit his players into the scheme as opposed to fitting his scheme around his players? Will he steal a page out of Doug Pederson’s book and take more chances in 2018? Will he remain stubborn and hard headed in the face of losses and continually refuse to make adjustments?
Garrett controls his own destiny. If he makes it across this wire, the results from this season could carry him far into his coaching career. But, if he doesn’t watch his step, the fall could be devastating to his chances at future coaching jobs, especially as a head coach.
Dak Prescott:
What a difference a year can make, eh? Last year at this same time Dak was actually drawing Brady comparisons. A year ago Dak Prescott was labeled #14 in all the NFL.com annual top 100 list; a list compiled using the opinion of Dak’s peers. This year, were there a bottom 100, you could bet Dak might just be a member, were it not for the inflated view of starting quarterbacks, in general.
For those of us who have watched Dak closely, we all know that last year was not a sophomore slump. Dak actually played fairly well up until the Atlanta Falcon game, where he was abused to the tune of 10 sacks and consequently was not the same to close out the season. But, at the same time, even before the Atlanta game, something did seem off as compared to his 2016 campaign where he took the world by storm. I won’t hazard a guess as to what was off, but I do think it is safe to say his issues were mental, not physical, which is an important distinction to make when deciding what he will be in 2018.
I feel by this point we should know he can make all the throws; albeit some throws are not as consistent or accurate as we would like, such as the back-shoulder fade. He can hang in the pocket with excellent poise, keeping his eyes down field and off of the passrush. He can manufacture time with his feet and even tuck and run on occasion, having excellent spatial awareness that allows him to create room to run despite not being particularly fast. And we know he is a leader of men, which similar to the Head Coach position, is more than half of the battle for a franchise leading quarterback.
Where Dak has struggled predominantly is maintaining good feet position upon throwing the football, feeling the rush and (especially towards the end), he rushed his throws due to what I believe was a loss of faith in his protection. The end result was inaccuracy, being sacked a whole bunch, more than double the interceptions from a year ago, and a dink & dunk offense that bore a striking resemblance to the offense when Brandon Weeden was behind center in 2015.
Again, the downfall of Dak a year ago I still believe to be mostly mental and highlights my concern for the upcoming season; can he regain that eye of the tiger he had in 2016? I haven’t the foggiest, but until he answers that question, 2018 will be a tightrope that decides if he is the face of the franchise for the foreseeable future or yet another Cowboys quarterback cautionary tale.
Sean Lee:
It boils down to whether or not Sean Lee can stay healthy. Nationally and locally Sean Lee is recognized as easily a top 10 linebacker when he is actually on the field. But he is perennially denied this recognition due to his lack of overall availability.
Where it not for a career marred by constantly being injured, Sean Lee would absolutely be in the conversation for best Dallas Cowboys linebacker ever. I say that without hesitation because as sad as last year was to watch in his absence, I can’t ignore the fact that unlike anything I’ve ever seen before in my history of watching football, Sean was the difference between the Cowboys defense being considered dominant and being regarded as a wet paper sack. Teams averaged under 20 points when Lee started and over 30 points in his absence. That, ladies and gentlemen, is a staggering difference without parallel available in my recent memory. Can anyone recall a player meaning that much to one side of the ball?
And yet, he is now over 30 and I suspect as far as the front office is concerned they are fed up with being held hostage by Humpty Dumpty and his many great falls. The tightrope Sean Lee walks, at a guess, lies between remaining healthy for at least 14 games or retiring and donning a coach’s whistle on the sideline where he most likely belongs.
Ezekiel Elliott:
Where to begin? There are a couple of tightropes Zeke walks concurrently. One is of course the dark cloud that will forever follow his career like an unwanted ugly lost puppy; one more Domestic Violence case could end his career…and as we all witnessed in 2017, being actually guilty as defined by the laws of this land is not necessary to seal that deal. All it takes is pissing off the wrong woman; something I’ve managed to do without even trying plenty of times in my 40 years and almost every day for the last 12.
The other issue, like his good buddy Dak, is mental. Last year we all noted the pictures of him to begin training camp…he was clearly out of shape. At the time I dismissed it because I knew that over the course of training camp he would shed the weight and to be honest felt that the extra padding was likely by design. After all, if he had shown up to training camp cut and defined, all the work he would put in going forward would burn muscle not fat, which is the last thing you want for a guy whose best attribute is getting that inch when all you need is an inch.
But when the season began, he still seemed heavy and it showed. He was not nearly as fast getting to his top speed as he demonstrated at various times in 2016 (60 yard run vs Bengals / 83 yard screen vs Steelers). As the 2017 season progressed, he slowly regained his speed, but unfortunately just as he was beginning to hit his stride, the suspension was enforced. While he did return in great physical shape after serving that suspension, he still wasn’t the same player we were hoping for; particularly against the Seahawks when the Cowboys were fighting to keep their playoff chances alive.
Following the upcoming mini-camp, the true black hole of the offseason begins. Aside from the lack of NFL-related news making this period one of the worst stretches for a football fan in the offseason, this is also the time of the year where player stupidity tends to run rampant. Thus far, Zeke has for the most part remained out of the lime-light. But the true test is coming: Can he stay out of trouble and in shape to be ready for training camp?
I expect he has learned his lesson, but with Dez ousted and Witten preparing to enter the booth, Zeke is without question the last offensive star standing here in Dallas, so his presence is now critical. The Cowboys team as a whole will likely go as he goes and if he’s not on the field, they will struggle.
Byron Jones:
Dependent on what Byron is being asked to do, he is both regarded as a stud and a dud. Those who have grown to hate him forget what life before him was like for the Cowboys. There was a time the Cowboys had zero answers for the pass-catching TE and as such, they were routinely gashed by that brand of player. Since the addition of Byron, the pass-catching TE tends to disappear.
Where Byron has struggled is the role of enforcer in run support. Missed tackles, poor angles taken to the ball, and an occasional inability to get off blocks have reared their ugly head an embarrassing number of times and as a result the Cowboys are moving him back to corner where he should excel; it stands to reason that if the best thing he does is cover and moving to corner means doing more of what he does best then he should be just fine. Add to that the Cowboys picked up his 5th year option, therefore, he likely has at least 2 years left to prove he still belongs, despite the position change.
The high line he walks is unique. If he can’t nail down either the #1 or #2 corner spots in training camp / preseason, he will likely be buried on the depth chart behind Chidobe Awuzie, Jourdan Lewis, and Anthony Brown. They may consider moving him back to safety, but based on what I know so far of Kris Richard, he may get buried there as well behind Jeff Heath, Xavier Woods (who is a big reason behind Byron’s switch from FS to Corner in the first place) and Kavon Frazier. Either way, despite having his fifth year option picked up, Byron is clearly walking a tight rope between potential NFL stardom and forgotten special teams contributor.
Allen Hurns:
I’d say it’s rare for a guy with his limited credentials to come into a team and immediately be expected to be the #1 wide receiver; he has one year of demonstrating #1 caliber stats on his resume that is 2 years in his rearview. The last 2 years have been marked by constant injury (sound familiar?). Early indications from OTA’s suggest while he may not completely replace Dez, he should at the very least be solid in his efforts. However, like Byron Jones, there are several hopefuls behind him that would like nothing better than to contribute to him being buried on the depth chart.
The potential pitfalls for Hurns are similar to that of Byron because if he is unable to claim the starting #1 or #2 positions, he will likely fall to the fifth position because both Beasley and Austin likely have the slot locked up. Unlike Byron, if he fails to claim the #1 or #2, there is a chance (albeit ridiculously small) he doesn’t make the team. While I seriously doubt there is a receiver capable of stealing his mantle as it stands, he certainly is not above and immune to being Wally-Pipped. Dependent on the seriousness of the injury and their confidence in the players behind him, a settlement may very well follow.
Demarcus Lawrence:
For three years prior to last year we listened to Marinelli gush about Demarcus Lawrence. He was proclaimed to be by far the best passrusher on the team. In the aftermath of each season we were treated to the various excuses as to why he had not reached his potential; playing through injuries being chief among them.
Last year we finally were treated to a demonstration of what Marinelli has been talking about. Demarcus “Tank” Lawrence finally earned his nickname, garnering 14.5 sacks, 58 tackles 23 of which were assist. Tank went from marginally solid to unstoppable and relentless pressure player almost overnight. The problem for the front office was they had one year of elite level play exercised in a contract year balanced against 3 years of simply not doing enough to be considered for a second contract.
Currently signed under the Franchise tag ($ 17 million) with an opportunity to prove his worthyness, I have wondered throughout the offseason if Demarcus Lawrence will continue to work like he hasn’t got paid yet. The tight rope he walks offers up two potential fall offs: he can either stopping working like he’s already got paid or the injury-bug that plagued his first 3 years of professional football will rear its ugly head again and likely end any chance of the long-term deal he is likely pursuing.
Wrap It Up
I’m sure most of you realize I could have kept on going; at a guess, every player currently on the 90-man roster feels as though they are on a tight rope. In a matter of months, 37 players will be released and once again searching for a job; several of which may even abandon their dream to play in the NFL and join the depressed ranks of the working class like you and me. So, like I said, I very easily could have wrote a book, but due to size limitations on this site, I narrowed my focal points down to a few potentially key players to the end of the year results.
Dependent on the reception of the above, I may opt to continue this as a series touching on various players and coaches for the remainder of the offseason…so let me know if that type of dialogue would interest you.
Thoughts?
