Ware oh Ware is DeMarcus in this draft?

[robert70x7]

From reading this forum, it seems that the majority of people think that we need to find a pass rusher that is capable of getting 10+ sacks a year, regardless of other value that they may provide in other areas (run support, coverage, etc.) I've spent the past couple of days watching some game film of Upshaw and Ingram to see how they compared to Ware, or to see if they are more like Spencer (which I have been saying for over a month).

Ware was 6'4 260 lbs coming out of college, and was not a bulky player. In fact, scouts were concerned about his lack of bulk and the possible impact it could have on his effectiveness as an 3 down defensive end. What he lacked for in bulk, he made up for in speed and agility. Lets look at his combine results from 2005...

40-Yard Dash: 4.56 (1st out of DE)
3-Cone Drill: 6.85 (1st out of DE)
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.07 (1st out of DE)
Bench Press: 27
Vertical: 38.5
Broad Jump: 122

Until we see the results from Upshaw and Ingram, we won't know how they compare. But, when I watch highlights from these guys, neither really sticks out as a great pass rusher. For comparison sake, lets look at what Spencer did for his combine workouts. Weighed in at 6'3 261.

40-Yard Dash: 4.7 (8th out of DE)
3-Cone Drill: 7.14 (no rankings)
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.43 (no rankings)
Bench Press: 30
Vertical: 32.5
Broad Jump: 112

Based on their combine results, there are huge differences between these two players. I honestly feel that Upshaw and Ingram will be closer to Spencer than Ware and from what I have seen on film, there isn't a much difference in terms of production over their careers and measureables (although based on personality I would rather have Ingram who compares himself to Ray Lewis).

From what I've read, scouts like to see DE in the 4.6 range for the 40 if they want to switch to OLB in a 3-4.

Right now, NFL Draft Scout has these ranges for both Upshaw and Ingram

Upshaw: 4.65-4.85
Ingram: 4.72-4.94

I'd have to agree with these numbers after watching film. They are just thick-bodied and look slow. However, there are other pass rushers that are borderline first rounders that could be there in the 2nd as well.

Chandler Jones: 4.64-4.87
Nick Perry: 4.52-4.76
Bruce Irvin: 4.43-4.65
Vinny Curry: 4.63-4.85
Whitney Mercilus: 4.58-4.79
Ronnell Lewis: 4.52-4.75

I just wanted to give some numbers that we can look for once the combine rolls around. I'm sure I'll hear that the NFL combine isn't worth a damn, but as of right now, I just wanted to give some objective information that we can use to compare the players and evaluate what we really want from an OLB position if Spencer is gone.

Have any suggestions, I'm always open to hear 'em!

 

[Zimmy Lives]

I think it will be difficult to find a difference maker like Ware in this draft at 14. I'm not sure why it hasn't been discussed much but wouldn't it make sense to go after Mario Williams in free agency if pass rusher was the greatest need?

Some might argue that a guard should be a priority in free agency but I think it should be someone who is proven as a pass rusher and can take some of the pressure off Ware. The Cowboys can address the guard position in the draft.

 

[jnday]

From reading this forum, it seems that the majority of people think that we need to find a pass rusher that is capable of getting 10+ sacks a year, regardless of other value that they may provide in other areas (run support, coverage, etc.) I've spent the past couple of days watching some game film of Upshaw and Ingram to see how they compared to Ware, or to see if they are more like Spencer (which I have been saying for over a month).

Ware was 6'4 260 lbs coming out of college, and was not a bulky player. In fact, scouts were concerned about his lack of bulk and the possible impact it could have on his effectiveness as an 3 down defensive end. What he lacked for in bulk, he made up for in speed and agility. Lets look at his combine results from 2005...

40-Yard Dash: 4.56 (1st out of DE)
3-Cone Drill: 6.85 (1st out of DE)
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.07 (1st out of DE)
Bench Press: 27
Vertical: 38.5
Broad Jump: 122

Until we see the results from Upshaw and Ingram, we won't know how they compare. But, when I watch highlights from these guys, neither really sticks out as a great pass rusher. For comparison sake, lets look at what Spencer did for his combine workouts. Weighed in at 6'3 261.

40-Yard Dash: 4.7 (8th out of DE)
3-Cone Drill: 7.14 (no rankings)
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.43 (no rankings)
Bench Press: 30
Vertical: 32.5
Broad Jump: 112

Based on their combine results, there are huge differences between these two players. I honestly feel that Upshaw and Ingram will be closer to Spencer than Ware and from what I have seen on film, there isn't a much difference in terms of production over their careers and measureables (although based on personality I would rather have Ingram who compares himself to Ray Lewis).

From what I've read, scouts like to see DE in the 4.6 range for the 40 if they want to switch to OLB in a 3-4.

Right now, NFL Draft Scout has these ranges for both Upshaw and Ingram

Upshaw: 4.65-4.85
Ingram: 4.72-4.94

I'd have to agree with these numbers after watching film. They are just thick-bodied and look slow. However, there are other pass rushers that are borderline first rounders that could be there in the 2nd as well.

Chandler Jones: 4.64-4.87
Nick Perry: 4.52-4.76
Bruce Irvin: 4.43-4.65
Vinny Curry: 4.63-4.85
Whitney Mercilus: 4.58-4.79
Ronnell Lewis: 4.52-4.75

I just wanted to give some numbers that we can look for once the combine rolls around. I'm sure I'll hear that the NFL combine isn't worth a damn, but as of right now, I just wanted to give some objective information that we can use to compare the players and evaluate what we really want from an OLB position if Spencer is gone.

Have any suggestions, I'm always open to hear 'em!

IMO , If Spencer walks , they should let Butler start and draft someone like Curry to rotate in until he learns the position . Curry is just an example , there are several others that would be good prospects . There is just not an elite pass rusher at the position this year . Thanks for the info .

 

[robert70x7]

IMO , If Spencer walks , they should let Butler start and draft someone like Curry to rotate in until he learns the position . Curry is just an example , there are several others that would be good prospects . There is just not an elite pass rusher at the position this year . Thanks for the info .

I completely agree with you, but a lot of people on this board thinks that Ingram or Upshaw will come in and be a difference maker. To me, I don't see it.

 

[Oh_Canada]

I love Ronnell Lewis, but not sure if he's big enough to be a three down olb in the NFL.

Nick Perry is growing on me. I got to see USC twice this year and both times I though he looked a little stiff to be an elite pass rusher. However, you can't ignore his skill set...the guy could be poison on the opposite side of Ware. I can see him charging up draft boards if he tests really well at the combine.

Having said that, I think Ingram is going to suprise you with his athletic ability.

 

[robert70x7]

Having said that, I think Ingram is going to suprise you with his athletic ability.

I hope so, just so the Cowboys can have more options to draft when the dominoes start to fall. I just think it's funny that people want to replace what they perceive as a mediocre player with another mediocre player. We already have someone ready to step in, why waste a pick like #14 when you can get someone elite at another position that happens to be a need as well?

The good thing is, all of the positions where we should be targeting early (G, CB, DE/LB), are deep within the first 3 rounds. There will be value there at all of these positions within the first two days.

 

[burmafrd]

when Spencer was drafted there were more than a couple out there questioning his speed and quickness. As time has gone by its clear that he is just not quite quick enough; why we call him almost Anthony. He comes within half a step of getting the QB too often.

Not his fault; just plain lack of vital physical ability.


I do not see any of the ones talked about that are any better.

 

[Phrozen Phil]

I hope so, just so the Cowboys can have more options to draft when the dominoes start to fall. I just think it's funny that people want to replace what they perceive as a mediocre player with another mediocre player. We already have someone ready to step in, why waste a pick like #14 when you can get someone elite at another position that happens to be a need as well?

The good thing is, all of the positions where we should be targeting early (G, CB, DE/LB), are deep within

the first 3 rounds

. There will be value there at all of these positions within the first two days.

Here's hoping we can get value beyond those rounds as well. We've had occasional success in round 4 in the past.

 

[jnday]

I completely agree with you, but a lot of people on this board thinks that Ingram or Upshaw will come in and be a difference maker. To me, I don't see it.

They will not be an upgrade . Why use the 14th pick on a player that will be no better than Spencer ? That just doesn't make sense .

 

[tm1119]

Good luck finding another Ware, in any draft. I was going to point out JPP as the closest to Ware in recent memory, but even he doesnt compare...

JPP 40 time- 4.64
Bench Reps- 19
3 Cone- 7.18
20 yard shuttle- 4.67

Hell, his #'s are right on par with Spencer's. The combine #'s arent everything. Hopefully 1 day people will realize this. Until you find another freak like Ware that absolutely blows the combine up, the #'s should only be a small part of analyzing a prospect.

 

[cobra]

I've been saying this repeatedly on this board that those who think Ingram or Upshaw would be an upgrade over Spencer are simply clueless. There seems to be some problem with people assuming that "top outside OLB prospect" necessarily means "another Ware." One does not need to spend anything more than a brief while looking at performance and physical attributes to realize that neither Ingram or Upshaw will be anything more than another Spencer, at best.

It would be extreme foolishness to believe that this defense would get better by letting Spencer walk than drafting either of these two at #14. If the Cowboys do that, this defense will be worse off next year and we'll have lost the chance to improve elsewhere with that pick.

I am just dumbfounded by the number of people who continue to think that Ingram or Upshaw offer us any improvement value at #14.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

I am just dumbfounded by the number of people who continue to think that Ingram or Upshaw offer us any improvement value at #14.

It's because they aren't being rational. They're mad at Spencer so they want someone, anyone, else in his spot.

So many people criticize Jerry for being impatient and emotional in his player evaluation and selection -- some of which is deserved -- but then they do the same thing themselves. The same thing is happening with Decastro IMO.

Anyway, back to topic, there isn't a Ware in this draft, especially at #14. If there were, people woudn't be talking about players like Blackmon going #2 overall.

 

[realtick]

There really aren't any D.Ware-types in this draft. Ironically, you have a lot of guys that are similar to Anthony Spencer, especially Courtney Upshaw.

The one guy that has an explosive element to his game is Bruce Irvin. The problem with Irvin is that he was basically a one-trick pony at W. Virginia whose sole responsibility was rushing the passer. I think he can make the transition but he's not a day-one starter type. He could be brought in as a pass rush specialist, or be utilized the way Denver uses Von Miller.

 

[Aven8]

I don't want a Ware. I'll take an Aldon Smith and be as happy as a cheeseburger with extra bacon!

 

[robert70x7]

I don't want a Ware. I'll take an Aldon Smith and be as happy as a cheeseburger with extra bacon!

Aldon Smith is in Ware's position for San Francisco. The reason he gets so many sacks is because the majority of his rushes come from the blind side and Ahmad Brooks is more like Spencer.

Aldon Smith wouldn't produce much more than Spencer in the same role in my opinion.

 

[Oh_Canada]

I've been saying this repeatedly on this board that those who think Ingram or Upshaw would be an upgrade over Spencer are simply clueless. There seems to be some problem with people assuming that "top outside OLB prospect" necessarily means "another Ware." One does not need to spend anything more than a brief while looking at performance and physical attributes to realize that neither Ingram or Upshaw will be anything more than another Spencer, at best.

It would be extreme foolishness to believe that this defense would get better by letting Spencer walk than drafting either of these two at #14. If the Cowboys do that, this defense will be worse off next year and we'll have lost the chance to improve elsewhere with that pick.

I am just dumbfounded by the number of people who continue to think that Ingram or Upshaw offer us any improvement value at #14.

No I think people are being very rational- that Spencer might not be re-signed if his price becomes too high. So if you're happy with Butler being the only player on the current roster with a sack going into the draft than have fun with drafting a guard while the defense gets smoked again.

 

[cobra]

No I think people are being very rational- that Spencer might not be re-signed if his price becomes too high.

This the opposite of rational.

Here is the rational approach:

1. Spencer needs to be resigned.
a. Can we improve him at or for a lesser price in free agency? No.
b. Can we improve upon him in the draft? No.

2. Therefore have three options:
a. Resign Spencer and use #14 to improve OL/CB.
b. Let Spencer walk, overpay for a replacement to try to duplicate his worth by signing Avril or Williams who may or may not be as good, use #14 to improve OL/CB.
c. Let Spencer walk, draft his replacement at #14 who will be worse, then overpay to improve OL/CB in Free Agency.

Option A is by far the more rational move. You have a known, solid player at OLB and improve at either OL or CB.

Option B makes no sense; you are paying more money than Spencer for an unknown quantity who may or may not be better than Spencer. This is the failed Commanders model.

Option C is likely to be more expensive than A. The difference is that Option C improves 1 position (OL/CB) while getting worse at OLB. Option A improves 1 position (OL/CB) and keeps a solid OLB.

In short, in resigning Spencer you HAVE to factor in (1) the cost of replacing him; (2) whether he can be improved upon in the draft or FA [no to the draft; unlikely in FA]; and the opportunity cost of losing out on drafting your OL or CB and having to pay a premium to get one in FA. You cannot put blinders on and say "Spencer only got 6 sacks so he isn't worth more than X million." That is not rational because you have to also consider opportunity costs and replacement costs.

 

[jterrell]

This the opposite of rational.

Here is the rational approach:

1. Spencer needs to be resigned.
a. Can we improve him at or for a lesser price in free agency? No.
b. Can we improve upon him in the draft? No.

2. Therefore have three options:
a. Resign Spencer and use #14 to improve OL/CB.
b. Let Spencer walk, overpay for a replacement to try to duplicate his worth by signing Avril or Williams who may or may not be as good, use #14 to improve OL/CB.
c. Let Spencer walk, draft his replacement at #14 who will be worse, then overpay to improve OL/CB in Free Agency.

Option A is by far the more rational move. You have a known, solid player at OLB and improve at either OL or CB.

Option B makes no sense; you are paying more money than Spencer for an unknown quantity who may or may not be better than Spencer. This is the failed Commanders model.

Option C is likely to be more expensive than A. The difference is that Option C improves 1 position (OL/CB) while getting worse at OLB. Option A improves 1 position (OL/CB) and keeps a solid OLB.

In short, in resigning Spencer you HAVE to factor in (1) the cost of replacing him; (2) whether he can be improved upon in the draft or FA [no to the draft; unlikely in FA]; and the opportunity cost of losing out on drafting your OL or CB and having to pay a premium to get one in FA. You cannot put blinders on and say "Spencer only got 6 sacks so he isn't worth more than X million." That is not rational because you have to also consider opportunity costs and replacement costs.

ROFL. Talk about wack logic.

You start with the conclusion: i.e. Spencer needs to be resigned.

Spencer was barely adequate opposite Ware. He did NOT set a high bar. He was a solid player but not more than that. You CAN draft better than solid players at 14 every year.

Demarcus Ware wasn't yet "DEMARCUS WARE" when we drafted him. Plenty of mocks had him going well below us. Had they known what he'd become he would have been a top 3 pick.

I think Nick Perry is the best athlete out of the potential 3-4 OLBs. But I have no idea if he is ready to start next year. I believe Ingram and Upshaw both are ready to start but may well be limited to 7-8 sack a year guys. I would gladly take that. Spencer was a 6 sack a year guy.

Spencer will try to find a place he can be the primary pass rusher. If he can that's who will pay him the most and where he will most want to be.

The Cowboys are just as likely to overpay to keep Spencer as they'd be to get in someone else to do the same job. Free agents are free agents and all are equally likely to get overpaid.

 

[cobra]

ROFL. Talk about wack logic.

You start with the conclusion: i.e. Spencer needs to be resigned.

Meaning he is not under contract. So you start from the premise you would need to resign him if he is an option. It is not the conclusion; it's the state of the facts.

Spencer was barely adequate opposite Ware. He did NOT set a high bar. He was a solid player but not more than that.

Solid? True. Barely adequate? False.

You CAN draft better than solid players at 14 every year.

Well, except for this year of course. There is no one in this draft that would be better at SOLB next year than Spencer.

I think Nick Perry is the best athlete out of the potential 3-4 OLBs.

Him or Irvin. I agree.

I believe Ingram and Upshaw both are ready to start but may well be limited to 7-8 sack a year guys. I would gladly take that.

So guys who are not very productive in college, without elite or plus pass rushing skills, and without elite or plus athleticism are suddenly going to become more productive in the NFL where the talent is better on the OL and they have more responsibilities as a SOLB? Interesting theory.

If these guys were going to be pass rushing machine, they might have actually shown that at some point.

Spencer was a 6 sack a year guy.

Not as a prospect. He was far more productive in college and had better physical attributes and explosion off the ball than either Ingram or Upshaw have. Yet in the role of SOLB, you think these guys are suddenly going to become more productive with all the responsibilities that have held back Spencer? That's illogical. That's pure blind hope. There is no objective reason to believe they will be more productive than Spencer.

Spencer will try to find a place he can be the primary pass rusher. If he can that's who will pay him the most and where he will most want to be.

Ok. So your view is that Spencer was "barely adequate", 6 sack a year guy that can be easily replaced. But some team will over-pay for him to come in and be a primary pass rusher?

The Cowboys are just as likely to overpay to keep Spencer as they'd be to get in someone else to do the same job. Free agents are free agents and all are equally likely to get overpaid.

No idea what that means. But let me ask you this, how has it worked out for the Commanders to let their guys walk (Ryan Clark, Antonio Pierce, etc.) and then overpay for FA replacements? That a successful model in your mind?

 

[DeaconBlues]

This the opposite of rational.

Here is the rational approach:

1. Spencer needs to be resigned.
a. Can we improve him at or for a lesser price in free agency? No.
b. Can we improve upon him in the draft? No.

2. Therefore have three options:
a. Resign Spencer and use #14 to improve OL/CB.
b. Let Spencer walk, overpay for a replacement to try to duplicate his worth by signing Avril or Williams who may or may not be as good, use #14 to improve OL/CB.
c. Let Spencer walk, draft his replacement at #14 who will be worse, then overpay to improve OL/CB in Free Agency.

Option A is by far the more rational move. You have a known, solid player at OLB and improve at either OL or CB.

Option B makes no sense; you are paying more money than Spencer for an unknown quantity who may or may not be better than Spencer. This is the failed Commanders model.

Option C is likely to be more expensive than A. The difference is that Option C improves 1 position (OL/CB) while getting worse at OLB. Option A improves 1 position (OL/CB) and keeps a solid OLB.

In short, in resigning Spencer you HAVE to factor in (1) the cost of replacing him; (2) whether he can be improved upon in the draft or FA [no to the draft; unlikely in FA]; and the opportunity cost of losing out on drafting your OL or CB and having to pay a premium to get one in FA. You cannot put blinders on and say "Spencer only got 6 sacks so he isn't worth more than X million." That is not rational because you have to also consider opportunity costs and replacement costs.

This. I don't see any OLB in the draft better (or with more potential) than Spencer. The only OLB FA that could be better is Mario Williams, who would command a much bigger contract.

This is simply a bad year to replace Spencer. Very bad.