superpunk said:
I see stuff like this, then I see articles posted by skins fans on another forum that shows reasonable ways to get about 10 mil under for the Skins. I don't know which to believe. Every year I think Danny boy is gonna have to pay for his sins, and every year they find some way around it.
I've been having an argument with PCinOz (the author of the piece that claims they'll be able to get 12.7 million under the cap, then outlines the moves that do so) on this very subject... it has been a civil argument, but I have pointed out that his numbers are a little out of whack:
1) For openers, his projection only accounts for 48 salaries, and in the offseason the rule of 51 applies-- the cap is calculated using the top 51 salaries on the team... thus, he needs to factor in 3 more contracts, all of which will be at or near minimum wage... add another million to the cap, leaving them at 11.7 million...
2) He projects the release of Walt Harris and Matt Bowens, moves which he says would save the Skins 4 million... but if the Skins cut both of them, that would leave them with all of six experienced DBs (assuming Sean Taylor stays out of jail this offseason), so if they DO cut both of them, they'd have to spend at least that much just to replace them... there goes another 4 million of cap savings, leaving them at 7.7 million...
3) Most important of all, he doesn't factor in money to re-sign their OWN free agents, guys like Ryan Clark, or to pay their rookie draft picks... I don't know how many Skins are up for new deals, but I do know that Gibbs has said that keeping this team together will be his top priority this offseason, so SOME money will most assuredly go toward keeping them...
Bottom line, IF the Skins made all the moves suggested in his analysis, they'd be at most a couple-three million under the cap... and of course, he blithely assumes that all those Skins will be WILLING to renegotiate their deals, and in some cases that might prove problematic... in particular, I'm thinking of Chris Samuels, who wasn't real happy the last time he renegotiated...
Bottom line, there ain't a snowball's chance in Hades that the Skins will be 10-12 million under the cap... interestingly, PC didn't choose to dispute most of my argument... they MIGHT have the room to pursue 2 or 3 lesser free agents, or one semi-"name" free agent... don't look for them to be any more active than they were last offseason (when their big ticket FA acquisition was Cory Raymer)...