We are a 6 1/2 - 7 point underdog!

[Boyzmamacita]

In the immortal words of Rick James, it don't matter.

 

[Tabascocat]

Our losses have been by 1, 11, 3 and 1 point. That's an average of 4 points difference per loss. Which is skewed somewhat by the Chargers result. Those teams have a winning record of 25-9, a winning percentage of 73.5% which compares quite well to the Saints 75%

Why,pray tell, would the Saints be favored "much higher"?

By basic capping skills, it should be NO -10 or so. The reason it is a bit lower is due to their strength of schedule to this point. Also, add in the equation of the Cowboys narrow losses. Mixed in with a NO questionable defense and a sporadic Dallas offense, you get a line of -7, give or take. This line is where it should be, it gets action on both sides.

 

[windward]

By basic capping skills, it should be NO -10 or so. The reason it is a bit lower is due to their strength of schedule to this point. Also, add in the equation of the Cowboys narrow losses. Mixed in with a NO questionable defense and a sporadic Dallas offense, you get a line of -7, give or take. This line is where it should be, it gets action on both sides.

Oh I agree. The line is about where it should be at, factoring everything you just said. T-RO left some of that out in his analysis.

 

[T-RO]

Our losses have been by 1, 11, 3 and 1 point. That's an average of 4 points difference per loss. Which is skewed somewhat by the Chargers result. Those teams have a winning record of 25-9, a winning percentage of 73.5% which compares quite well to the Saints 75%

Why,pray tell, would the Saints be favored "much higher"?

Playing in that Dome is a 7 pt plus advantage.
The emotional and tactical advantage Ryan brings...throw in another 5 points
Drew versus our D...how is that not another 400 yards?

Our one great hope is injuries and limitations along the Saint's o-line...along with DeMarcus' return permits us to bring serious heat. Without it this game could get ugly.

 

[windward]

Playing in that Dome is a 7 pt plus advantage.
The emotional and tactical advantage Ryan brings...throw in another 5 points
Drew versus our D...how is that not another 400 yards?

Our one great hope is injuries and limitations along the Saint's o-line...along with DeMarcus' return permits us to bring serious heat. Without it this game could get ugly.

Now you're just making up numbers.

 

[ElGatoGrande]

They opened the week at 11pt underdogs,,,, betting against the spread contributed to much of the drop,,,, I think,,,, dont know much about point spreads but the odds makers adjust the spread based on thebets that roll in to cover themselves,,,, right?

 

[Tabascocat]

They opened the week at 11pt underdogs,,,, betting against the spread contributed to much of the drop,,,, I think,,,, dont know much about point spreads but the odds makers adjust the spread based on thebets that roll in to cover themselves,,,, right?

They try to set it to induce as close to equal money on each side and collect the juice(usually 10% on a win). They don't care who wins or loses as long as they get their 10% fee.

 

[T-RO]

Now you're just making up numbers.

No. I'm estimating numbers. Smartly.

 

[TimHortons]

The odds are on their side. But they still have to play the game. We will likely need 2-3 turnovers IMO.

It's not necessarily the number of turnovers that's important, it's the turnover differential. We'll have to be +3 at least

 

[Fredd]

They opened the week at 11pt underdogs,,,, betting against the spread contributed to much of the drop,,,, I think,,,, dont know much about point spreads but the odds makers adjust the spread based on thebets that roll in to cover themselves,,,, right?

I looked Tuesday morning and the line was @ 7

 

[jobberone]

It's not necessarily the number of turnovers that's important, it's the turnover differential. We'll have to be +3 at least

That's implied.

 

[Bungarian]

Garrett does not win against teams who are over 500. That is the one thing he is consistent with.

 

[Sarge]

our pass D vs. their pass O plus they're the home team... sounds about right, actually the line should probably be higher

This.

 

[ElGatoGrande]

It might have been OU/Baylor then,,,,

I looked Tuesday morning and the line was @ 7

 

[CowboyFan4Eva]

We are going to go in there, and get a ******* win!!!!!!!

 

[CowboyFan4Eva]

We are going to go in there, and get a ****ing win!!!!!!!

I'm sorry, it's game day !!!!

 

[juck]

They are hard to beat in that dome.

But fwiw, they have only one win all year vs a team with a winning record.
Hopefully it stays that way.

We havent beaten one winning team

 

[DFWJC]

We havent beaten one winning team

That's what I was responding to. He said that, and I said, well, they've only beaten one.

 

[5Stars]

The odds are on their side. But they still have to play the game. We will likely need 2-3 turnovers IMO.

This no name defense just might get them too! For as may players on this defense that I cannot name as of now, they are playing their butts off.

 

[jobberone]

Our losses have been by 1, 11, 3 and 1 point. That's an average of 4 points difference per loss. Which is skewed somewhat by the Chargers result. Those teams have a winning record of 25-9, a winning percentage of 73.5% which compares quite well to the Saints 75%

Why,pray tell, would the Saints be favored "much higher"?

good points but they are tough in the dome some of which is the crowd/noise.