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AIKMAN COMMENTARY – Week 5
We’ve received emails from readers who noted that in our Week 4 commentary we said teams with a higher Aikman Game Rating went 13-1 that week – which may have been confusing since up until now you haven’t had access to these ratings.
Some of you thought we were referring to the season-long Aikman Combined Ratings that reflected play through the first three weeks. And it was there that things weren’t so good for the higher-rated teams in an upset-riddled Week 4. The higher-ranked teams in those AERs went only 6-8 as clubs like Cleveland, Buffalo and the Giants showed better form than they had previously.
The Aikman Game Ratings – much like the NFL QB ratings do with QBs – helps show who played better in a specific game – and we have evidence that it does a better job of identifying winning traits than just who gained the most yards. But when a team that previously had been doing the things necessary to win starts turning the ball over (like Green Bay did last week), their higher Aikman Combined isn’t going to help them win that specific game.
The NFL measures offense and defense strictly by how many yards a team gains. In declaring a team to be the number one offense in the league nothing else – not turnovers, not third down conversions, not even points – matters.
While the team that gains the most yards wins about 69% of the time – that still means out gained teams win nearly one-third of all games.
We have found the Aikman Game Ratings more often mirror the actual result of the game – usually to a tune of nearly 85%. We think this is an important indicator that the AERs – which measure seven different categories – are a better standard for true offensive and defensive efficiency.
Here are the numbers since the start of 2005
These numbers are however, like any stat, reflective in that they look backwards.
Now, let us look at Week 5’s GAME RATINGS:
What this shows is that the AERs agree with the NFL and yards in that the Chargers had the best offensive game in the league in Week 5 in that category. However, and having been there I think this is justified, the Steelers who scored “only” 21 points and had the 13th-highest yards gained total had the third-highest rating of the week. Pittsburgh made zero turnovers, converted 53.5% of its third downs and scored all three times in the red zone.
Conversely, if you flip the ratings, Pittsburgh had the best defensive effort of the week against the Seahawks.
Last week, the teams with the higher Aikman Game Ratings went 12-2 (as did the teams with more yards gained). The games where the AER was “incorrect” included a virtual ratings tie between the Dolphins and Texans that was decided on a last second 57-yard FG and the three-point Rams-Cardinals game – both close calls.
On the other hand, the Bears win over the Packers is correctly reflected despite Green Bay out gaining Chicago, 439 to 285. Green Bay had five turnovers, Chicago just one – and it made the difference.
So the AER Combined Ratings would have “predicted” a Green Bay win since the Packers had a 159.0 Combined Rating while the Bears were just 136.0. But when Green Bay started turning the ball over its Game Rating plunged despite all the yards they gained.
Now as far as predicting games in the future, here are the current Aikman Combined Ratings for a couple of this week’s matchups.
Minnesota (154.0) at Chicago (142.7)
Even if you give Chicago 10 AER points for a home field advantage, you still have Minnesota favored. I think the Vikings have a fine defense (82.5) and understand how this comes out. But, Chicago’s rating reflects an offense that was ineffective for three games with Rex Grossman at QB. Brian Griese may have improved the Bears attack – we will see – so it wouldn’t surprise me if Chicago won despite what the AERs seem to indicate.
New England (177.7) at Dallas (178.4)
Sometimes the AERs confirm your opinion of a team – and sometimes they don’t. I’ve been as impressed as anyone with the Patriots’ hot start, but the AERs don’t confer greatness on them just yet. It should be noted that their five victims have a combined 7-16 record and only San Diego ranks in the top half of our Combined AERs. I expect this to be a great game and think the Cowboys could win and will almost surely end New England’s streak of victories by 17-plus points.
We’ve received emails from readers who noted that in our Week 4 commentary we said teams with a higher Aikman Game Rating went 13-1 that week – which may have been confusing since up until now you haven’t had access to these ratings.
Some of you thought we were referring to the season-long Aikman Combined Ratings that reflected play through the first three weeks. And it was there that things weren’t so good for the higher-rated teams in an upset-riddled Week 4. The higher-ranked teams in those AERs went only 6-8 as clubs like Cleveland, Buffalo and the Giants showed better form than they had previously.
The Aikman Game Ratings – much like the NFL QB ratings do with QBs – helps show who played better in a specific game – and we have evidence that it does a better job of identifying winning traits than just who gained the most yards. But when a team that previously had been doing the things necessary to win starts turning the ball over (like Green Bay did last week), their higher Aikman Combined isn’t going to help them win that specific game.
The NFL measures offense and defense strictly by how many yards a team gains. In declaring a team to be the number one offense in the league nothing else – not turnovers, not third down conversions, not even points – matters.
While the team that gains the most yards wins about 69% of the time – that still means out gained teams win nearly one-third of all games.
We have found the Aikman Game Ratings more often mirror the actual result of the game – usually to a tune of nearly 85%. We think this is an important indicator that the AERs – which measure seven different categories – are a better standard for true offensive and defensive efficiency.
Here are the numbers since the start of 2005
These numbers are however, like any stat, reflective in that they look backwards.
Now, let us look at Week 5’s GAME RATINGS:
What this shows is that the AERs agree with the NFL and yards in that the Chargers had the best offensive game in the league in Week 5 in that category. However, and having been there I think this is justified, the Steelers who scored “only” 21 points and had the 13th-highest yards gained total had the third-highest rating of the week. Pittsburgh made zero turnovers, converted 53.5% of its third downs and scored all three times in the red zone.
Conversely, if you flip the ratings, Pittsburgh had the best defensive effort of the week against the Seahawks.
Last week, the teams with the higher Aikman Game Ratings went 12-2 (as did the teams with more yards gained). The games where the AER was “incorrect” included a virtual ratings tie between the Dolphins and Texans that was decided on a last second 57-yard FG and the three-point Rams-Cardinals game – both close calls.
On the other hand, the Bears win over the Packers is correctly reflected despite Green Bay out gaining Chicago, 439 to 285. Green Bay had five turnovers, Chicago just one – and it made the difference.
So the AER Combined Ratings would have “predicted” a Green Bay win since the Packers had a 159.0 Combined Rating while the Bears were just 136.0. But when Green Bay started turning the ball over its Game Rating plunged despite all the yards they gained.
Now as far as predicting games in the future, here are the current Aikman Combined Ratings for a couple of this week’s matchups.
Minnesota (154.0) at Chicago (142.7)
Even if you give Chicago 10 AER points for a home field advantage, you still have Minnesota favored. I think the Vikings have a fine defense (82.5) and understand how this comes out. But, Chicago’s rating reflects an offense that was ineffective for three games with Rex Grossman at QB. Brian Griese may have improved the Bears attack – we will see – so it wouldn’t surprise me if Chicago won despite what the AERs seem to indicate.
New England (177.7) at Dallas (178.4)
Sometimes the AERs confirm your opinion of a team – and sometimes they don’t. I’ve been as impressed as anyone with the Patriots’ hot start, but the AERs don’t confer greatness on them just yet. It should be noted that their five victims have a combined 7-16 record and only San Diego ranks in the top half of our Combined AERs. I expect this to be a great game and think the Cowboys could win and will almost surely end New England’s streak of victories by 17-plus points.
