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Life is good ... the NFL is back
11:55 AM Wed, Sep 09, 2009 | Permalink
Ted Madden
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I love the NFL.
It begins again Thursday night with the Steelers-Titans game (what a great opener). Let's talk a little about the league as we head into the 2009 season.
First of all, after looking at all the teams and studying for my fantasy football draft and reading the Sports Illustrated preview issue and doing other assorted NFL reading, I've decided that the following teams will suck: Cleveland, Denver, Detroit, Oakland.
These teams might suck: Buffalo, Kansas City, NY Jets, and Tampa Bay. Of course, there are several other teams that can and will plummet depending on injuries (in my opinion, the most underrated factor that determines whether a team is good or bad. Sure, everyone says injuries can kill a team, but once they do, everyone forgets about the injuries and just points at the team and says, That team sucks).
Random thoughts about these 8 teams. Cleveland's new coach has decided on a starting quarterback, but he's told only the quarterbacks. Weird situation. Denver is going to be terrible - as a Bears fan who watched Kyle Orton, you can take that to the bank. And their brand new 32-year-old coach has gone scortched earth since arriving - probably not a good sign.
Tampa, Kansas City, and Buffalo all dumped their offensive coordinators last week - an even worse sign. I put the NY Jets into the "might" suck group (up from the "going to suck" group) because I watched Marc Sanchez's one series in that last pre-season game, and he looked good. If they get anything out of him, anything near what Baltimore got out of Flacco last year, the Jets could be around .500.
Teams like Cincinnati, San Francisco, and St. Louis will probably not be very good, but I don't want to rule them out. The thing is, when trying to predict how the upcoming season will be, we tend to think about how last season ended. And with the NFL, that's a good way to make bad predictions, because it changes every year.
I think the NFC East and the NFC Central will both be very tough - with the East a little tougher just because Detroit isn't in that division. Washington went 8-8 and finished last in the East, and if Jason Campbell improves and gets line protection (which completely failed him in the 2nd half of 2008), there's no reason they can't make a run. And I really like all three of the top teams in the East: Dallas, Philly and the NY Giants. Same with the Central, I like all three of their top teams (Chicago, Minnesota, and Green Bay) and can see any one of them winning that division.
Seattle will be a lot better (as long as Hasselback stays healthy), Arizona should be good (as long as Warner can stay healthy for the whole season), and I think St. Louis has a chance to bounce back too, behind (a healthy?) Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson. And I'm not sure what to make of San Francisco.
In the NFC South, Atlanta will come back to earth some, just because they play such a tough schedule. New Orleans is very one-sided, and it's hard to see them putting together a really big season, like 12-4 or 11-5. Carolina is interesting - they were 12-4 last year, but DeAngelo Williams can't have the same enormous year he had last year (can he?). Plus, his backup Jonathan Stewart has been banged up through OTA's and training camp, so it's hard to see him being the "2" in that 1-2 punch Carolina had last year and wants this year. And Jake Delhomme should be interesting to watch; apparently after that incredible 6 turnover performance against Arizona in the playoffs last year, he immediately went to the team headquarters and actually watched tape of that game. That says something about his determination to turn that awful game into something positive.
On to the AFC .... the South should be the toughest division in that conference. A lot of people like Houston to be one of those new playoff teams that the NFL has every year. Their offense should be fantastic, IF Matt Schaub is healthy. How bad was it to see him hurt his ankle against Minnesota in the 3rd preseason game? That's been his problem since joining the Texans, and that was a really bad sign. Especially considering Rex Grossman is his backup. There's no reason to think Tennessee and Indianapolis can't win at least 10 games again this year. I'm curious to see the coaching change has any affect on the Colts. They did go 12-4 last year despite a running game that ranked 2nd-worst, and that should get better this year. And that leaves Jacksonville as probably the last place team, but there's really no reason to think that the Jaguars can't approach the 11-win season they had 2 years ago ... if they stay healthy.
The AFC West is clearly the worst division in football. Stick Denver, Oakland, or Kansas City in the NFC East, NFC Central, or the AFC South, and they are winning 2-3 games (although KC has some hope if Matt Cassel plays like he did last year). But those three teams can beat up on each other a little bit and end up with a couple extra wins that way. San Diego should be very good this year, despite their head coach.
The AFC North has two of the toughest teams in football - Pittsburgh and Baltimore. It should be interesting to see if the Ravens defense suffers the loss of Rex Ryan (new head coach of the Jets). I am interested to watch Cincinnati this year; remember, Carson Palmer is a top 5ish quarterback when healthy. Cleveland will suck (I think I've already mentioned this...).
The AFC East is a question mark, with the exception of New England. I expect Miami to be one of those teams that goes down in this up-and-down league. I'm starting to talk myself into the NY Jets a little bit - but I can't take them out of the "might suck" group because they are starting a rookie quarterback. But with Rex Ryan bringing a new attitude to that franchise, one that will be edgy and probably a little dirty, they might surprise some people. Buffalo appears to be a mess - their no-huddle experiment has been a dud so far and their offensive coordinator was fired. And they just cut the starting left tackle 6 days before their first game.
I have to say ... this little blog entry ended up a lot longer than I thought it would be, but I obviously have a lot of thoughts on the upcoming season. If you were looking for concrete predictions from me, look elsewhere. I think predictions are pointless - a better word for them would be "guesses," because you never know when a starting quarterback is going to get knocked out for 6 weeks. Or a starting left tackle. Or a 16-sack defensive end. Or if a running back will hurt his toe, maybe miss only one game, but be affected by that toe for the rest of the season. And that has as much affect on a team's chances as anything else. How about I just predict ..... awesomeness!
Did I mention, I love the NFL?
11:55 AM Wed, Sep 09, 2009 | Permalink
Ted Madden
I love the NFL.
It begins again Thursday night with the Steelers-Titans game (what a great opener). Let's talk a little about the league as we head into the 2009 season.
First of all, after looking at all the teams and studying for my fantasy football draft and reading the Sports Illustrated preview issue and doing other assorted NFL reading, I've decided that the following teams will suck: Cleveland, Denver, Detroit, Oakland.
These teams might suck: Buffalo, Kansas City, NY Jets, and Tampa Bay. Of course, there are several other teams that can and will plummet depending on injuries (in my opinion, the most underrated factor that determines whether a team is good or bad. Sure, everyone says injuries can kill a team, but once they do, everyone forgets about the injuries and just points at the team and says, That team sucks).
Random thoughts about these 8 teams. Cleveland's new coach has decided on a starting quarterback, but he's told only the quarterbacks. Weird situation. Denver is going to be terrible - as a Bears fan who watched Kyle Orton, you can take that to the bank. And their brand new 32-year-old coach has gone scortched earth since arriving - probably not a good sign.
Tampa, Kansas City, and Buffalo all dumped their offensive coordinators last week - an even worse sign. I put the NY Jets into the "might" suck group (up from the "going to suck" group) because I watched Marc Sanchez's one series in that last pre-season game, and he looked good. If they get anything out of him, anything near what Baltimore got out of Flacco last year, the Jets could be around .500.
Teams like Cincinnati, San Francisco, and St. Louis will probably not be very good, but I don't want to rule them out. The thing is, when trying to predict how the upcoming season will be, we tend to think about how last season ended. And with the NFL, that's a good way to make bad predictions, because it changes every year.
I think the NFC East and the NFC Central will both be very tough - with the East a little tougher just because Detroit isn't in that division. Washington went 8-8 and finished last in the East, and if Jason Campbell improves and gets line protection (which completely failed him in the 2nd half of 2008), there's no reason they can't make a run. And I really like all three of the top teams in the East: Dallas, Philly and the NY Giants. Same with the Central, I like all three of their top teams (Chicago, Minnesota, and Green Bay) and can see any one of them winning that division.
Seattle will be a lot better (as long as Hasselback stays healthy), Arizona should be good (as long as Warner can stay healthy for the whole season), and I think St. Louis has a chance to bounce back too, behind (a healthy?) Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson. And I'm not sure what to make of San Francisco.
In the NFC South, Atlanta will come back to earth some, just because they play such a tough schedule. New Orleans is very one-sided, and it's hard to see them putting together a really big season, like 12-4 or 11-5. Carolina is interesting - they were 12-4 last year, but DeAngelo Williams can't have the same enormous year he had last year (can he?). Plus, his backup Jonathan Stewart has been banged up through OTA's and training camp, so it's hard to see him being the "2" in that 1-2 punch Carolina had last year and wants this year. And Jake Delhomme should be interesting to watch; apparently after that incredible 6 turnover performance against Arizona in the playoffs last year, he immediately went to the team headquarters and actually watched tape of that game. That says something about his determination to turn that awful game into something positive.
On to the AFC .... the South should be the toughest division in that conference. A lot of people like Houston to be one of those new playoff teams that the NFL has every year. Their offense should be fantastic, IF Matt Schaub is healthy. How bad was it to see him hurt his ankle against Minnesota in the 3rd preseason game? That's been his problem since joining the Texans, and that was a really bad sign. Especially considering Rex Grossman is his backup. There's no reason to think Tennessee and Indianapolis can't win at least 10 games again this year. I'm curious to see the coaching change has any affect on the Colts. They did go 12-4 last year despite a running game that ranked 2nd-worst, and that should get better this year. And that leaves Jacksonville as probably the last place team, but there's really no reason to think that the Jaguars can't approach the 11-win season they had 2 years ago ... if they stay healthy.
The AFC West is clearly the worst division in football. Stick Denver, Oakland, or Kansas City in the NFC East, NFC Central, or the AFC South, and they are winning 2-3 games (although KC has some hope if Matt Cassel plays like he did last year). But those three teams can beat up on each other a little bit and end up with a couple extra wins that way. San Diego should be very good this year, despite their head coach.
The AFC North has two of the toughest teams in football - Pittsburgh and Baltimore. It should be interesting to see if the Ravens defense suffers the loss of Rex Ryan (new head coach of the Jets). I am interested to watch Cincinnati this year; remember, Carson Palmer is a top 5ish quarterback when healthy. Cleveland will suck (I think I've already mentioned this...).
The AFC East is a question mark, with the exception of New England. I expect Miami to be one of those teams that goes down in this up-and-down league. I'm starting to talk myself into the NY Jets a little bit - but I can't take them out of the "might suck" group because they are starting a rookie quarterback. But with Rex Ryan bringing a new attitude to that franchise, one that will be edgy and probably a little dirty, they might surprise some people. Buffalo appears to be a mess - their no-huddle experiment has been a dud so far and their offensive coordinator was fired. And they just cut the starting left tackle 6 days before their first game.
I have to say ... this little blog entry ended up a lot longer than I thought it would be, but I obviously have a lot of thoughts on the upcoming season. If you were looking for concrete predictions from me, look elsewhere. I think predictions are pointless - a better word for them would be "guesses," because you never know when a starting quarterback is going to get knocked out for 6 weeks. Or a starting left tackle. Or a 16-sack defensive end. Or if a running back will hurt his toe, maybe miss only one game, but be affected by that toe for the rest of the season. And that has as much affect on a team's chances as anything else. How about I just predict ..... awesomeness!
Did I mention, I love the NFL?