What are the chances a 6th round QB becomes a starter?

BoyzBlaster said:
Kind of makes Bob's point when you have to go back.......80 years. Or maybe this is trolling?
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Yeah, no doubt a weak troll job.
It's a very clear and accurate OP.
Clearly states 3 "in the last 15 years" (since 2010)so as to discourage all the contrarians trying to bring up every other single QB in history who may have started otherwise.

But of course the infamous failed CZ reading comprehension lives on.

Then they play dumb when called out.
Or maybe theyre not playing at all.
 
speedkilz88 said:
Tom Brady 6
Roger Staubach 10
Bart Starr 17
Joe Theismann 4
Mark Rypien 6
Matt Hasselbeck 6
Brad Johnson 9
Rich Gannon 4
Mark Brunell 5
Marc Bulger 6
Kurt Warner FA
Tony Romo FA
Dak Prescott 4
Brock Purdy 7
Johnny Unitas 9
Warren Moon FA
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While this is a nice list, and I do not know the answer to my next question, how many QBs were taken in the 1st round of each respective QBs draft class and went on to have long successful not necessarily championship careers.
 
Bobhaze said:
Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?
  • According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:
  • 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
  • 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
  • 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
  • 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
  • 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
  • 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
  • 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
  • 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)
That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
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Great write-up... thanks for sharing!!

I really agree with you when you say "I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB." I was happy we didn't over pay in this trade for a player but I would imagine the same people clamoring for Trey Lance to be the starter are the same ones pining for Milton here.


I would add this piece of context as a Michigan fan. He has more than miles to go. He has all the talent in the world, but he can't play the position. He's like the anti-Tom Brady. LOL (Brady lacked the physical tools but mastered the position)
 
thunderpimp91 said:
No one is saying it can't happen, hes simply saying the odds are not very good. Historically if you draft 100 QBs with a day 3 pick only about 3 of those will turn out to be starting caliber QBs. Brady is just part of the 3% club.
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Agree. I Just stated 6th round QBs have not been bad when you add the ones pointed out.

1st round QBs are going to get more opportunities to succeed or fail.

Check this attempt to sort this out:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/52...-bowl-quarterbacks-history-free-agency-draft/
 
jrumann59 said:
While this is a nice list, and I do not know the answer to my next question, how many QBs were taken in the 1st round of each respective QBs draft class and went on to have long successful not necessarily championship careers.
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Off the top of my head, for the year Brady was drafted, only one QB was taken in the 1st (Chad Pennington) and none in the second. Outside of Brady, it is easily the worst QB draft of the 2000's.

Edit: Went back and looked. What a dog of a QB class except for Brady.
 
Bobhaze said:
Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?
  • According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:
  • 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
  • 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
  • 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
  • 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
  • 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
  • 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
  • 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
  • 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)
That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
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Sure odds of becoming a starter are low, but if he can even become a quality backup that's worth the cost. Of course, even that is far from certain, but swapping a 5th round pick for a 7th round pick isn't a big price to take a shot on a guy with the kind of physical skills Milton has. And he's a lot more salary cap friendly than Lance was.
 
CowboyFrog said:
Roger in the 10th man what a steal...thats a little misleading to say the least.
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Some context on Roger Staubach’s draft position. If Roger had not had that Navy obligation he would have certainly been a first round pick.

He was drafted in 1964 in the 10th round as what was then called a “future” pick. Because in those days players from a military academy had to fulfill their 5 year commitment to the military before being able to play in the NFL. For that reason most NFL teams did not draft players from the military academies unless it was a late round pick.

So Roger didn’t start playing for the Cowboys until training camp 1969. He was literally a 27 year old rookie. Imagine his career numbers if he had been able to play starting at 22 instead of 27. Might of had another SB.
 
Bobhaze said:
Some context on Roger Staubach’s draft position. If Roger had not been had that Navy obligation he would have certainly been a first round pick.

He was drafted in 1964 in the 10th round as what was then called a “future” pick. Because in those days players from a military academy had to fulfill their 5 year commitment to the military before being able to play in the NFL. For that reason most NFL teams did not draft players from the military academies unless it was a late round pick.

So Roger didn’t start playing for the Cowboys until training camp 1969. He was literally a 27 year old rookie. Imagine his career numbers if he had been able to play starting at 22 instead of 27. Might of had another SB.
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right chances are high with a natty appearance (well he played the polled champion in the bowl anyway) and hiesman he goes alot sooner im thinking.
 
OGSixshooter said:
Great post. Appreciate the research.

The thing about QBs picked after round 2 is that there is usually a flaw that limits the QBs game: Inability to run, lack of experience under center, weak arm, slow processing...whatever...there's a big red flag or an unknown that is too risky despite the other good skills. With Tom Brady it was # of games (he was always fighting for playing time at Michigan), lack of mobility and athleticism ...things which he obviously mitigated and overcame. But why? Because Belichick gave him basically 1st round investment. He kept 4 QBs, gave him more and more playing time and then gave him the damn keys to the car in his 2nd year. Most 6th rounders never get the sun/water they need to flower and grow. I think that is changing based on the carousel at the QB position...so while these are undeniably long shot odds...I would say they are slightly better than the previous history of 6th round QBs.
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Most aren't good enough to handle the sun/water!!!!
 
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