What are the chances a 6th round QB becomes a starter?

[Chasing6]

Is this a trick question ? I could see Quincy Carter being off target .

The 90 QB's on the roster of NFL teams last year.

 

[Chasing6]

It was a broken play.

I thought athletic QB's were supposed to excel on broken plays.

 

[Doomsday77]

Kind of makes Bob's point when you have to go back.......80 years. Or maybe this is trolling?

Especially when the OP clearly states, "since 2010..." I didn't realize Staubach played in the 2000's

 

[75boyz]

Kind of makes Bob's point when you have to go back.......80 years. Or maybe this is trolling?

Yeah, no doubt a weak troll job.
It's a very clear and accurate OP.
Clearly states 3 "in the last 15 years" (since 2010)so as to discourage all the contrarians trying to bring up every other single QB in history who may have started otherwise.

But of course the infamous failed CZ reading comprehension lives on.

Then they play dumb when called out.
Or maybe theyre not playing at all.

 

[jrumann59]

Tom Brady 6
Roger Staubach 10
Bart Starr 17
Joe Theismann 4
Mark Rypien 6
Matt Hasselbeck 6
Brad Johnson 9
Rich Gannon 4
Mark Brunell 5
Marc Bulger 6
Kurt Warner FA
Tony Romo FA
Dak Prescott 4
Brock Purdy 7
Johnny Unitas 9
Warren Moon FA

While this is a nice list, and I do not know the answer to my next question, how many QBs were taken in the 1st round of each respective QBs draft class and went on to have long successful not necessarily championship careers.

 

[cmoney23]

Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?

• According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
• Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
• Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.

Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:

• 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
• 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
• 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
• 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
• 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
• 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
• 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
• 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)

That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”

Great write-up... thanks for sharing!!

I really agree with you when you say "I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB." I was happy we didn't over pay in this trade for a player but I would imagine the same people clamoring for Trey Lance to be the starter are the same ones pining for Milton here.


I would add this piece of context as a Michigan fan. He has more than miles to go. He has all the talent in the world, but he can't play the position. He's like the anti-Tom Brady. LOL (Brady lacked the physical tools but mastered the position)

 

[dogberry]

Ourlads has Grier throwing a football 58-59 mph.

 

[RonWashington]

The 90 QB's on the roster of NFL teams last year.

Tommy DeVito Drew Lock

 

[KingCorcoran]

Didn't he already start a game?

No.