What are the chances a 6th round QB becomes a starter?

jazzcat22 said:
NE lasted draft some QB in the 6th round, many years ago. So is it safe to say, NE has a knack for finding QB steals in the 6th round.
History may repeat itself, only it moves from NE's find, to Dallas this time. We may have lucked out.
Props to Jerry.
:laugh:
:thumbup::popcorn:
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Yeah, and that so called 6th round QB couldn't beat out Drew Henson (also a 6th rd. pick) and had to share snaps with him while at Michigan . Players develop at different rates, and you just never really know what you have until it's proven.
 
Bobhaze said:
Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?
  • According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:
  • 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
  • 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
  • 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
  • 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
  • 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
  • 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
  • 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
  • 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)
That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
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Some fans see any quarterback not named Dak Prescott and think he's the answer to three decades of postseason futility.
 
I’ll put it this way Bob. In one start Joe Milton has not proven to me that he doesn’t belong in the league. There’s a lot of QB’s who after one start I honestly already get a strong feeling they aren’t going to make it. So, making a reasonable trade with a low price tag for a QB who I can’t dismiss as a potential starter after one game played is actually pretty good. But yes, as you have pointed out, miles and miles to go. I don’t expect him to become QB1, but if Dak goes down again, I will be intrigued by how Milton might perform.
 
ChronicCowboy said:
Is Milton better than a late round QB in this upcoming draft? I’d say that’s questionable. Will Howard or Dillon Gabriel may drop to the 5th round and that would have been a better prospect.
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And because we still have 10 picks in the draft, I'd have no problem drafting one. Hedge your bets on finding a quality backup/future starter.
 
Pentagruel said:
I’ll put it this way Bob. In one start Joe Milton has not proven to me that he doesn’t belong in the league. There’s a lot of QB’s who after one start I honestly already get a strong feeling they aren’t going to make it. So, making a reasonable trade with a low price tag for a QB who I can’t dismiss as a potential starter after one game played is actually pretty good. But yes, as you have pointed out, miles and miles to go. I don’t expect him to become QB1, but if Dak goes down again, I will be intrigued by how Milton might perform.
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That's a decent way to look at it. There are some players that we've picked up this offseason, former first-round picks, that I don't know if we can say that about.
 
gimmesix said:
And because we still have 10 picks in the draft, I'd have no problem drafting one. Hedge your bets on finding a quality backup/future starter.
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They don't really need to draft another one with the picks that they have. It looks to me that Grier and Milton are sufficient going into training camp this year.
 
rambo2 said:
They don't really need to draft another one with the picks that they have. It looks to me that Grier and Milton are sufficient going into training camp this year.
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There is nothing wrong with trying to find young talent. Grier has been in the league going on six years and we know what he is at this point. It isn't like anyone is going, "We're good because we've got Grier."
 
Bobhaze said:
Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?
  • According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:
  • 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
  • 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
  • 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
  • 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
  • 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
  • 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
  • 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
  • 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)
That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
Click to expand...
I think it was a good move and excited to see where this goes but look any reasonable fan has to temper expectations a bit. He played in 1 game, against mostly backups and now he's a future star? That would be awesome if that were the case, but I'm starting off with the hope he will atleast be a good back and then taking it from there.
 
ChronicCowboy said:
Is Milton better than a late round QB in this upcoming draft? I’d say that’s questionable. Will Howard or Dillon Gabriel may drop to the 5th round and that would have been a better prospect.
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That's the thing this doesn't stop you from using a fifth round pick, we have two more I believe, and getting one of those guys because that would make sense you can't have too many in the end you cut will grier, you still need 3 quarterbacks...

How many times did New England pick two different quarterbacks in the same draft? I remember Washington did it with RG3 and Kirk cousins it turns out they were smart because RG3 couldn't stay healthy, and cousins did and he at the 4th rounder ends up being better...

That's what's good about this trade they used a comp pick a fifth round which we had extras it will not hurt anything if one of these dudes if will Howard Gabriel or even with yours I heard Slough, is one of those romo types, he could end up being a steal in the fifth round or later.
 
It will ultimately depend on Joe himself
If he would get w coaches or a offseason consultant and work on accuracy..

If he grinds on tape, reads, progression off 1st read
Defences strategy to disguise

He has the physical tools... no doubt

Joe gonna have to surround himself with people that help him progress

Had a 1st rd pik in Ariz, they had to put it ib his contract... that approach wont work
 
ChronicCowboy said:
What? Both of those guys were way better than Milton in college.
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Both late round picks who have done well that don’t have near the physical traits that Milton has.


I can’t believe I had to spell that out for you but hope that helps.
 
Bobhaze said:
Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?
  • According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:
  • 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
  • 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
  • 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
  • 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
  • 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
  • 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
  • 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
  • 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)
That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
Click to expand...
lol Brad Kaaya.

A certain poster here said he was more pro ready than Mahomes.
 
We just need that dual threat back under center. Every major QB in the playoffs outside of Stafford, Goff, and Burrow can move. Dak can’t do that anymore.
 
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