What are the chances a 6th round QB becomes a starter?

[BoyzBlaster]

Tom Brady 6
Roger Staubach 10
Bart Starr 17
Joe Theismann 4
Mark Rypien 6
Matt Hasselbeck 6
Brad Johnson 9
Rich Gannon 4
Mark Brunell 5
Marc Bulger 6
Kurt Warner FA
Tony Romo FA
Dak Prescott 4
Brock Purdy 7
Johnny Unitas 9
Warren Moon FA

Kind of makes Bob's point when you have to go back.......80 years. Or maybe this is trolling?

 

[jaythecowboy]

The craziest part of the op was less than 50% of 1st round qbs start for two seasons. I would have thought that was way higher.

 

[FVSTONE]

Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?

• According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
• Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
• Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.

Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:

• 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
• 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
• 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
• 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
• 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
• 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
• 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
• 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)

That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”

If our current overpaid, over hyped and less than mediocre 4th rounder can become our starter, skies the limit for Joey.............

 

[BoyzBlaster]

Another who cant win in the playoffs if he can even get there.

This fan base is so delusional. It's like they actually think Dak and Romo won multiple super bowls.

 

[blueblood70]

We just need that dual threat back under center. Every major QB in the playoffs outside of Stafford, Goff, and Burrow can move. Dak can’t do that anymore.

First of all, I somewhat agree with you,

but at the same time, you basically show 3 of the better quarterbacks right now in the NFL that don't move well...

so, teams can win that way as long as you get them what,

a backfield and an offensive line that can move for them, if you block well and you open holes you have a strong run game your quarterback doesn't need to be mobile that's a bonus that's why guys like Russell Wilson and Prescott when he could move they didn't run a lot they run when they needed to they just needed to be mobile enough that is what Patrick Mahomes does he's not Lamar Jackson he does not want to run and for good reason you get hurt more when you run...

That's nice to have a mobile quarterback but having a running quarterback that tends to run when he doesn't need to runs too much I don't want that just because some of these young guns came in here early in their career and ran hard doesn't mean they'll keep doing it not well and just efficiently when they get comfortable in the pocket they should be doing it less as their career progresses and only use it when necessary not as your primary tool.... That's why back in the day some of those guys didn't make it like Tim Tebow they they weren't patient enough with those guys to build an offense around them but you can't lean on that as your primary you're not a running back your quarterback so you need to be able to throw better than you can run and when it's the opposite that's not a good thing either...​

I think the irony here is a guy like Troy Aikman wasn't a runner at all matter fact he got beat up because of it but he never was asked to carry this team by himself, not in the playoffs, not even in the regular season, he had what one of the best offensive lines in the best backfields to ever play the game(ES22, Moose) one of the best defenses....

Roger Staubach was mobile but he was also never asked to make that why they were winning, the reason they were winning was what a Hall of Fame backfield and offensive line and a defense that created names, yes a real defense, a team that showed up in the playoffs, with a coaching staff that was also for both of those players far better than anything Romo or Prescott ever had..

That's how you win in this league ,

is you have to be great at more than one position asking your quarterback to carry your team just because he makes the most money is a big part of the nonsense Prescott doesn't even have a good primary #2 to throw to, I remember some great tight ends and some solid number twos that showed up for Aikman and Roger.

The argument is so tired of just blaming the quarterbacks from the last two decades, when really in the playoffs I don't care what they had the regular season,

I don't care if they sporadically had a dangerous running back or a solid offensive line, they didn't have it when it counted, the coaching staff the practices the game plans the adjustments for some strange reason there never was a really good run game in all these losses.. go look at the losses, either that or the offensive line couldn't block long enough or well enough or they got a bunch of penalties and then the defense is big a big problem...

 

[rags747]

Give me a qb with a cannon for an arm and I’m willing to take my chances with him, add in 6’5” 240lbs who can run and that’s better yet. Go big or go home. Much rather go down in flames than another 9-8 season.

Some people just always see the glass as half full, it’s always cloudy, I never have any luck. There is medication for that people!

 

[rguido]

If your just looking for a starter, get a vet, but I would like a superbowl winning qb, and how many of them got drafted past the 6th rd. Staubach was drafted low because he had to finish military service before joining the nfl, otherwise he would of been taken much higher.

 

[ChronicCowboy]

Both late round picks who have done well that don’t have near the physical traits that Milton has.


I can’t believe I had to spell that out for you but hope that helps.

By physical traits, do you mean his raw strength? Because he’s never shown an ability to run or pass at an elite level. You’re clearly overrating him because you like how he looks.

 

[rambo2]

If our current overpaid, over hyped and less than mediocre 4th rounder can become our starter, skies the limit for Joey.............

Less than mediocre? Lol

 

[Chasing6]

BULLET!!!
Bruh, Romo went undrafted and Dak was a 4th rounder. In DAL, this cat has all the makings of our next starter.

They both played significantly and had a lot of success in college.

 

[Chasing6]

Some fans see any quarterback not named Dak Prescott and think he's the answer to three decades of postseason futility.

Same fans felt the same about Romo.

For some reason they can't see GM Jethro is the problem and he has no idea on how to build a competitive team.

 

[Chasing6]

Yeah, and that so called 6th round QB couldn't beat out Drew Henson (also a 6th rd. pick) and had to share snaps with him while at Michigan . Players develop at different rates, and you just never really know what you have until it's proven.

Drafting a player in the 6th round is different than trading for one, drafted in the 6th round.

Obviously the drafting team, seen enough to get trade him.

 

[gtb1943]

Tom Brady 6
Roger Staubach 10
Bart Starr 17
Joe Theismann 4
Mark Rypien 6
Matt Hasselbeck 6
Brad Johnson 9
Rich Gannon 4
Mark Brunell 5
Marc Bulger 6
Kurt Warner FA
Tony Romo FA
Dak Prescott 4
Brock Purdy 7
Johnny Unitas 9
Warren Moon FA

Kind of trolling as of those names how many came in the last twenty years?
as much as the game has changed so has the needs of a QB.
Staubach's draft spot is very misleading as he had his four years of Navy Duty before he could become a Pro. He would have been a first rd otherwise.
And putting in people like Brad Johnson and Marc Bulger further dilutes the point.

 

[Chasing6]

Tom Brady 6
Roger Staubach 10
Bart Starr 17
Joe Theismann 4
Mark Rypien 6
Matt Hasselbeck 6
Brad Johnson 9
Rich Gannon 4
Mark Brunell 5
Marc Bulger 6
Kurt Warner FA
Tony Romo FA
Dak Prescott 4
Brock Purdy 7
Johnny Unitas 9
Warren Moon FA

How many were traded after year 1?

 

[MonsterD]

Warner and Romo are the only UDFA's I know of that made pro bowl. Might be others maybe.

Jeff Garcia? I think, he definitely made the pro-bowl but undrafted, I thought he was not drafted.

 

[KingCorcoran]

TOM BRADY Romo UDFA , Brock Purdy MR Irrelevant more recent 7th rounder It CAN happen.

I know it's a little different but why is the other positions that can be undrafted or going low rounds, it turned to be starters or hall of farmers.... A big deal seems to be made around here Cowboys trading away ward, who was undrafted act like it was huge mistake. Just maybe NE just made that same mistake..;p

New England will win more games than Dallas this season. I know that’s not saying much, but it’s something. Whatever their plan is going forward it’s better than the Cowboys’. They were most aware of Milton’s skills and based on what they knew they got rid of him.

 

[BoyzBlaster]

New England will win more games than Dallas this season. I know that’s not saying much, but it’s something. Whatever their plan is going forward it’s better than the Cowboys’. They were most aware of Milton’s skills and based on what they knew they got rid of him.

I live in Patriot territory. You can feel the excitement because they are at least trying (drafting a QB with a premium pick).

 

[TasteMyScythe]

Drafting a player in the 6th round is different than trading for one, drafted in the 6th round.

Obviously the drafting team, seen enough to get trade him.

Teams trade players for different reasons, not just because they think the player is a bust, especially after only one season.

 

[gtb1943]

Jeff Garcia? I think, he definitely made the pro-bowl but undrafted, I thought he was not drafted.

Undrafted and went to the CFL and became a star; then to the 49rs where he was very good.

 

[Bobhaze]

For those who didn’t bother to read the OP, here are some of the many things I DID NOT say in this thread:

• I never said it was a bad trade.
• I never said I didn’t want it to work out well for the team.
• I never said it is impossible for a QB drafted as a 6th round pick to EVER be any good.
• I never said I don’t like Joe Milton’s skill set.
• I never said I’m a big “Dak fan” or that I’m not ready for someone new at QB. I am.

What I did do is share factual information about the odds of Joe Milton becoming a long term starter here in Big D:

• There have been 99 QBs drafted since 2010.
• The chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
• Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.

So if you want to hope that Joe Milton is the guy who will rescue this franchise, be my guest. This is an opinion forum. Now you have the facts.