What are the chances a 6th round QB becomes a starter?

Bobhaze said:
For those who didn’t bother to read the OP, here are some of the many things I DID NOT say in this thread:
  • I never said it was a bad trade.
  • I never said I didn’t want it to work out well for the team.
  • I never said it is impossible for a QB drafted as a 6th round pick to EVER be any good.
  • I never said I don’t like Joe Milton’s skill set.
  • I never said I’m a big “Dak fan” or that I’m not ready for someone new at QB. I am.
What I did do is share factual information about the odds of Joe Milton becoming a long term starter here in Big D:
  • There have been 99 QBs drafted since 2010.
  • The chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
So if you want to hope that Joe Milton is the guy who will rescue this franchise, be my guest. This is an opinion forum. Now you have the facts.
Click to expand...
A lack of understanding of probabilities and statistics hinders the vast majority of people, which is why lotteries and casinos are so popular.
 
Bobhaze said:
For those who didn’t bother to read the OP, here are some of the many things I DID NOT say in this thread:
  • I never said it was a bad trade.
  • I never said I didn’t want it to work out well for the team.
  • I never said it is impossible for a QB drafted as a 6th round pick to EVER be any good.
  • I never said I don’t like Joe Milton’s skill set.
  • I never said I’m a big “Dak fan” or that I’m not ready for someone new at QB. I am.
What I did do is share factual information about the odds of Joe Milton becoming a long term starter here in Big D:
  • There have been 99 QBs drafted since 2010.
  • The chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
So if you want to hope that Joe Milton is the guy who will rescue this franchise, be my guest. This is an opinion forum. Now you have the facts.
Click to expand...
thank you bobby. good stuff. I just find the trade to be insignificant. If he makes the team, great. If they cut him, we're out a 5th. Who cares? I don't. I def woulda rolled the dice and made this trade.
 
Bobhaze said:
Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?
  • According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:
  • 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
  • 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
  • 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
  • 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
  • 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
  • 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
  • 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
  • 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)
That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
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if you really want to succeed with him at quarterback. You need to switch to an RPO based offense meaning it’s a read option to throw the ball deep him, scrambling using his athleticism all of those things. Think Lamar Jackson with the ravens when they were running all those read option place.
 
Reality hurts. Make it go away!

As much as I enjoy bathing in the naive optimism, the probability of Joe Milton taking over the starting position at any point in time is fractional.

Even drafting a QB in the1st round after the 5th overall pick is a 50-50 proposition.

QBs like Purdy, Dak, Romo and Cousins receive accolades precisely because they are an extreme rarity.

Again, the closest we can get to a sure thing is the top 5 selections in a draft. Even then, it's no sure thing.
 
dupree89 said:
thank you bobby. good stuff. I just find the trade to be insignificant. If he makes the team, great. If they cut him, we're out a 5th. Who cares? I don't. I def woulda rolled the dice and made this trade.
Click to expand...
They aren't cutting him. His upside and physical traits will have him on this team.
 
So many of the very PHYSICALLY talented players do not make it in the NFL because all the way through High School and college they had a definite edge that way.
Once they get to the NFL, that is no longer enough.
John Elway was tremendously talented physically and then he worked hard to refine it. One of the reasons he is a HOF and on many lists as an all time great.
Roger was the same way.
Troy also

Will Milton join that very small group? Not likely but not impossible.
 
I did a calculation and it turns out to be about 1.31176%.

I used a number of different variables but the most important one was:

1. Pulled it out of my ***.
 
rambo2 said:
They aren't cutting him. His upside and physical traits will have him on this team.
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I tend to agree. My point really was that I feel too many people are fretting over losing a 5th round pick. You really gotta take this chance. Risk vs reward.
 
Bobhaze said:
Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?
  • According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:
  • 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
  • 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
  • 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
  • 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
  • 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
  • 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
  • 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
  • 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)
That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
Click to expand...
I think the question Bob is what is the likelihood it happens here in Dallas where DAk and Romo were both unlikely guys to start as NFL quarterbacks but got the chance here in Dallas.

They might not have got the chance somewhere else Jerry likes to take these chances and play these games with players that are not the most likely to succeed because if he hits on it it makes him look like an NFL genius.
I believe it's why we take injured linebackers in the second round pass rushers with drug problems and head cases tight ends that we don't need and all the other unorthodox things we do because it's Jerry's toy and he wants to do it his way.

That said Joe Milton might get his chance here just because Jerry is curious to see what would happen Jerry might like the measurables and just want to see how they play out on the field.

It doesn't mean it's the right thing to do or make sense but in Jerry's world it's how he gets his gambling fix by trying unorthodox things and playing with the team.

That said I wouldn't mind a 6 ft 5 240 lb mobile quarterback with a rocket arm that hasn't been beat to hell in 10 NFL seasons to come out and give it a shot after some proper coaching.

Why not we have seen the best and worst of Dak Prescott we know what we have there.

I got no problem seeing if we can catch lightning in a bottle there's no possible way this guy can embarrass this team anymore than any of the other people have embarrassed it I say if he gets a chance to play I'm all for it
 
rags747 said:
Give me a qb with a cannon for an arm and I’m willing to take my chances with him, add in 6’5” 240lbs who can run and that’s better yet. Go big or go home. Much rather go down in flames than another 9-8 season.

Some people just always see the glass as half full, it’s always cloudy, I never have any luck. There is medication for that people!
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Im a lifelong VOLS fan. Good luck with this. Its not about being negative. Ive seen him play.
 
Blackrain said:
I think the question Bob is what is the likelihood it happens here in Dallas where DAk and Romo were both unlikely guys to start as NFL quarterbacks but got the chance here in Dallas.

They might not have got the chance somewhere else Jerry likes to take these chances and play these games with players that are not the most likely to succeed because if he hits on it it makes him look like an NFL genius.
I believe it's why we take injured linebackers in the second round pass rushers with drug problems and head cases tight ends that we don't need and all the other unorthodox things we do because it's Jerry's toy and he wants to do it his way.

That said Joe Milton might get his chance here just because Jerry is curious to see what would happen Jerry might like the measurables and just want to see how they play out on the field.

It doesn't mean it's the right thing to do or make sense but in Jerry's world it's how he gets his gambling fix by trying unorthodox things and playing with the team.

That said I wouldn't mind a 6 ft 5 240 lb mobile quarterback with a rocket arm that hasn't been beat to hell in 10 NFL seasons to come out and give it a shot after some proper coaching.

Why not we have seen the best and worst of Dak Prescott we know what we have there.

I got no problem seeing if we can catch lightning in a bottle there's no possible way this guy can embarrass this team anymore than any of the other people have embarrassed it I say if he gets a chance to play I'm all for it
Click to expand...
Washington is trying to catch Philadelphia. The Cowboys are trying to “catch lightening in a bottle”. That sums up the Dallas Cowboys.
 
Blackrain said:
I think the question Bob is what is the likelihood it happens here in Dallas where DAk and Romo were both unlikely guys to start as NFL quarterbacks but got the chance here in Dallas.

They might not have got the chance somewhere else Jerry likes to take these chances and play these games with players that are not the most likely to succeed because if he hits on it it makes him look like an NFL genius.
I believe it's why we take injured linebackers in the second round pass rushers with drug problems and head cases tight ends that we don't need and all the other unorthodox things we do because it's Jerry's toy and he wants to do it his way.

That said Joe Milton might get his chance here just because Jerry is curious to see what would happen Jerry might like the measurables and just want to see how they play out on the field.

It doesn't mean it's the right thing to do or make sense but in Jerry's world it's how he gets his gambling fix by trying unorthodox things and playing with the team.

That said I wouldn't mind a 6 ft 5 240 lb mobile quarterback with a rocket arm that hasn't been beat to hell in 10 NFL seasons to come out and give it a shot after some proper coaching.

Why not we have seen the best and worst of Dak Prescott we know what we have there.

I got no problem seeing if we can catch lightning in a bottle there's no possible way this guy can embarrass this team anymore than any of the other people have embarrassed it I say if he gets a chance to play I'm all for it
Click to expand...
While I was no real fan, how much of a chance did Trey get here with Jethro and company?
 
Bobhaze said:
Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?
  • According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:
  • 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
  • 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
  • 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
  • 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
  • 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
  • 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
  • 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
  • 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)
That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
Click to expand...
Well, Romo was undrafted, so I guess anything is always possible.
 
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