What are the chances a 6th round QB becomes a starter?

[Typhus]

Washington is trying to catch Philadelphia. The Cowboys are trying to “catch lightening in a bottle”. That sums up the Dallas Cowboys.

We have our division rivals right where we want em.

 

[Bobhaze]

Well, Romo was undrafted, so I guess anything is always possible.

Sure. It’s possible. The facts are that it is very unlikely.

But hey, that’s what makes sports great. Sometimes a long shot breaks through. It just happens about 2 times in 100.

 

[Typhus]

Sure. It’s possible. The facts are that it is very unlikely.

But hey, that’s what makes sports great. Sometimes a long shot breaks through. It just happens about 2 times in 100.

Just the other night I thought it was going to rain, but it ended up snowing instead.
Just saying that's probably a lot better odds than 2 -100.
You are correct, but I prefer throwing some darts every chance you get at anything that could resemble a future QB talent.

 

[ArtClink]

Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?

• According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
• Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
• Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.

Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:

• 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
• 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
• 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
• 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
• 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
• 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
• 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
• 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)

That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”

Joe Milton is a great piece to add, but Will Grier is our future.

 

[pitt33]

He was acquired from NE as a future backup.

Don’t expect more than that.

 

[Bobhaze]

Joe Milton is a great piece to add, but Will Grier is our future.

Art with the steal.

 

[Diehardblues]

Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?

• According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
• Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
• Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.

Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:

• 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
• 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
• 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
• 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
• 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
• 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
• 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
• 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)

That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”

Very slim. Milton closer to a Practice Squad guy than starter.

My bigger concern is does this mean we aren’t drafting a QB. Ewers was supposed to be coming for a visit. He could be there in 3rd round .

 

[Typhus]

Joe Milton is a great piece to add, but Will Grier is our future.

That thought made me shake for a bit.

 

[ArtClink]

That thought made me shake for a bit.

lol!

 

[Catpappy]

It’s not sorry I’m excited about talent behind Dak. Rush was smart but lacked any kind of athleticism. I want a first round Aikman like quarterback but man they don’t draft like that around here anymore. I hope he gets a chance and makes the best of it. What has Dak won exactly? I think hope is all we have left.

 

[eromeopolk]

Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?

• According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
• Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
• Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.

Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:

• 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
• 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
• 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
• 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
• 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
• 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
• 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
• 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)

That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”

I am late to this but was not Tom Brady a 6th round QB?

Hassleback and Rypien did OK.

Also, Dak had no NFL starts before going 13-3 as a starting NFL QB. A lot of people taught he was 6th round talent taken too early.

It is about will, determination, and effort to be the best.

 

[thunderpimp91]

I am late to this but was not Tom Brady a 6th round QB?

Hassleback and Rypien did OK.

Also, Dak had no NFL starts before going 13-3 as a starting NFL QB. A lot of people taught he was 6th round talent taken too early.

It is about will, determination, and effort to be the best.

No one is saying it can't happen, hes simply saying the odds are not very good. Historically if you draft 100 QBs with a day 3 pick only about 3 of those will turn out to be starting caliber QBs. Brady is just part of the 3% club.

 

[kskboys]

Extremely low.

 

[CATCH17]

By physical traits, do you mean his raw strength? Because he’s never shown an ability to run or pass at an elite level. You’re clearly overrating him because you like how he looks.

Better runner, better athlete, bigger arm.

 

[CATCH17]

New England will win more games than Dallas this season. I know that’s not saying much, but it’s something. Whatever their plan is going forward it’s better than the Cowboys’. They were most aware of Milton’s skills and based on what they knew they got rid of him.

They’re similar.

Dallas is a little better unless Maye is significantly better.

 

[MikeT22]

I am late to this but was not Tom Brady a 6th round QB?

Hassleback and Rypien did OK.

Also, Dak had no NFL starts before going 13-3 as a starting NFL QB. A lot of people taught he was 6th round talent taken too early.

It is about will, determination, and effort to be the best.

Tell us more about this Tom Brady guy

 

[plymkr]

Yeah, and that so called 6th round QB couldn't beat out Drew Henson (also a 6th rd. pick) and had to share snaps with him while at Michigan . Players develop at different rates, and you just never really know what you have until it's proven.

I’m glad someone brought this up. Drew Henson kept Brady on the bench at Michigan. Patriots got Brady and we got Henson. Patriots won 6 Super Bowls and we won 2 WC games.

I’m not buying that Milton will be a bust because of his college performances. So far he’s shown good on film in the preseason and against the Bills, albeit that was almost a preseason game.

But the point is true, you never know how someone will develop in the NFL. Hopefully he’s closer to Brady than Henson

 

[jaythecowboy]

First of all, I somewhat agree with you,

but at the same time, you basically show 3 of the better quarterbacks right now in the NFL that don't move well...

so, teams can win that way as long as you get them what,

a backfield and an offensive line that can move for them, if you block well and you open holes you have a strong run game your quarterback doesn't need to be mobile that's a bonus that's why guys like Russell Wilson and Prescott when he could move they didn't run a lot they run when they needed to they just needed to be mobile enough that is what Patrick Mahomes does he's not Lamar Jackson he does not want to run and for good reason you get hurt more when you run...

That's nice to have a mobile quarterback but having a running quarterback that tends to run when he doesn't need to runs too much I don't want that just because some of these young guns came in here early in their career and ran hard doesn't mean they'll keep doing it not well and just efficiently when they get comfortable in the pocket they should be doing it less as their career progresses and only use it when necessary not as your primary tool.... That's why back in the day some of those guys didn't make it like Tim Tebow they they weren't patient enough with those guys to build an offense around them but you can't lean on that as your primary you're not a running back your quarterback so you need to be able to throw better than you can run and when it's the opposite that's not a good thing either...​

I think the irony here is a guy like Troy Aikman wasn't a runner at all matter fact he got beat up because of it but he never was asked to carry this team by himself, not in the playoffs, not even in the regular season, he had what one of the best offensive lines in the best backfields to ever play the game(ES22, Moose) one of the best defenses....

Roger Staubach was mobile but he was also never asked to make that why they were winning, the reason they were winning was what a Hall of Fame backfield and offensive line and a defense that created names, yes a real defense, a team that showed up in the playoffs, with a coaching staff that was also for both of those players far better than anything Romo or Prescott ever had..

That's how you win in this league ,

is you have to be great at more than one position asking your quarterback to carry your team just because he makes the most money is a big part of the nonsense Prescott doesn't even have a good primary #2 to throw to, I remember some great tight ends and some solid number twos that showed up for Aikman and Roger.

The argument is so tired of just blaming the quarterbacks from the last two decades, when really in the playoffs I don't care what they had the regular season,

I don't care if they sporadically had a dangerous running back or a solid offensive line, they didn't have it when it counted, the coaching staff the practices the game plans the adjustments for some strange reason there never was a really good run game in all these losses.. go look at the losses, either that or the offensive line couldn't block long enough or well enough or they got a bunch of penalties and then the defense is big a big problem...

Exactly the only playoff game Dak had a productive run game to help him was his rookie year vs the Packers.

 

[Canada180]

Better chance a 6th becomes a starter than Dak winning anything of note

 

[TasteMyScythe]

I’m glad someone brought this up. Drew Henson kept Brady on the bench at Michigan. Patriots got Brady and we got Henson. Patriots won 6 Super Bowls and we won 2 WC games.

I’m not buying that Milton will be a bust because of his college performances. So far he’s shown good on film in the preseason and against the Bills, albeit that was almost a preseason game.

But the point is true, you never know how someone will develop in the NFL. Hopefully he’s closer to Brady than Henson

Milton has the tools but what matters most is what he has between the ears. And of course, the people who claim he'll be a bust just based on where he was drafted are truly the ones lacking between the ears. Brady was able to overcome all of his physical short comings on just how intelligent he was, and the same can be said about Montana. Probably the two best QB's to ever play the game.