What are the real world chances of finding a QB after round one?

I said less than 50/50 and narrowed it down for you. Anything under 50% isn’t good because every time you swing and miss it sets you back at the very least 2-3 years. You can’t keep wasting picks on QBs in the first round and build a great team. Glad you don’t run the team.
These posters want to waste the current rosters careers, even the good players. They will throw away picks until they find a good QB. Then, while the guy is on his rookie contract, the team sucks because they have so many holes to fill because they threw away so many picks, now they have wasted the rookie contract window and must pay their good QB market value, hampering the team. It's Dak all over again.

This board is scraping for excuses these days. All the gaslighting is non effective, now the excuses are running thin.

It needs to hate, but is struggling to make sense on how to acquire a QB high up in the draft and what to do if they keep whiffing. It doesn't want to talk about how many whiffs before it abandons the plan
 
Those aren’t just my numbers. Those are the odds many who cover the NFL give for landing a franchise QB in the first round. Drafting a QB is a crapshoot in the top 10. Go through the first round of the draft, primarily the top 10 and see all the first round QB busts.
You are right..

but you aren't telling me how else to go about it?.. go for the crap shoot in the top 10 or go for the crap shoot after round 1?
 
These posters want to waste the current rosters careers, even the good players. They will throw away picks until they find a good QB. Then, while the guy is on his rookie contract, the team sucks because they have so many holes to fill because they threw away so many picks, now they have wasted the rookie contract window and must pay their good QB market value, hampering the team. It's Dak all over again.

This board is scraping for excuses these days. All the gaslighting is non effective, now the excuses are running thin.

It needs to hate, but is struggling to make sense on how to acquire a QB high up in the draft and what to do if they keep whiffing. It doesn't want to talk about how many whiffs before it abandons the plan
Speaking of gaslighting.................

I never said anything like that.. Im just interested in KJJ's numbers.. if they are correct.. I want a round 1 QB before Dak retires.
 
You are right..

but you aren't telling me how else to go about it?.. go for the crap shoot in the top 10 or go for the crap shoot after round 1?
The way you go about it out it depends on how desperate you are at QB. When you use a first round pick on a QB especially in the top 10 you have to give them at least 3 seasons to develop. If you’ve lost hope then you have no choice but to take your chances on another one. Every time you miss it’s a blow to your franchise. Washington spent 3 decades trying to land a great QB and it appears they’ve finally hit on one. Cleveland is still looking after 3 decades of futility at the position. Hard to build a good team wasting first round picks every few seasons on a QB that flames out.
 
The way you go about it out it depends on how desperate you are at QB. When you use a first round pick on a QB especially in the top 10 you have to give them at least 3 seasons to develop. If you’ve lost hope then you have no choice but to take your chances on another one. Every time you miss it’s a blow to your franchise. Washington spent 3 decades trying to land a great QB and it appears they’ve finally hit on one. Cleveland is still looking after 3 decades of futility at the position. Hard to build a solid team wasting first round picks every few seasons on a QB that flames out.
Im about over this now.. lol

if there is a 40% chance of drafting a franchise QB.. you draft 3 years in a row you should have one going by those numbers.

Im too lazy to look.. but I bet that if you looked at all QB's drafted in the 1st round.. the "hit" rate would be lower than 40%.

However.. it would be nice if the Cowboys actually TRIED to draft a decent QB and not just living in hope that they accidently land on one.

that's me.. ciao
 
if there is a 40% chance of drafting a franchise QB.. you draft 3 years in a row you should have one going by those numbers.

Im too lazy to look.. but I bet that if you looked at all QB's drafted in the 1st round.. the "hit" rate would be lower than 40%.
I said 30-40%.
 
Those aren’t just my numbers. Those are the odds many who cover the NFL give for landing a franchise QB in the first round. Drafting a QB is a crapshoot in the top 10. Go through the first round of the draft, primarily the top 10 and see all the first round QB busts.
But the odds become considerably worse the deeper into the draft. This is beyond dispute.
 
The problem is that many QBs rated as first rd picks are not

Milroe is one and no way should he be

the trick is finding the guy
Green Bay has done pretty well at that
Actually so has Dallas just not since Jethro took over as we got flat out lucky twice
Cleveland on the other hand has set an all time record for QB failures
clevlands ability to fail is of inter galactic caliber
 
But the odds become considerably worse the deeper into the draft. This is beyond dispute.
I think you and the school of thought that is relying on the "you have to spend to move up to get one, only the QBs picked high up in first round have a good chance to work out" are side stepping the cost to the organization and team by relying on a flimsy excuse to throw away solid picks chasing a QB.

I guess in debate you have to clutch onto something.

Final point is, football will turn into a 6 teams being able to compete while every other team is trashing their chances to compete looking for a QB by throwing away solid picks until they land a QB.

I think the mentality of "find a QB first and then build around him" as some serious side effects to the game.

No one wants to pay QBs on this board, yet they talk about how you have to have a good one to win.

The posters that agree with your stance won't give a timeline on how many drafts you go through with busts at QB and throwing away picks before you abandon that ideology. And, what about locker room pressure. Star non-QBs will start asking out of your organization because your fielding bad, unfun teams to play for pursuing a QB you don't even want to pay lol.
 
I think you and the school of thought that is relying on the "you have to spend to move up to get one, only the QBs picked high up in first round have a good chance to work out" are side stepping the cost to the organization and team by relying on a flimsy excuse to throw away solid picks chasing a QB.

I guess in debate you have to clutch onto something.

Final point is, football will turn into a 6 teams being able to compete while every other team is trashing their chances to compete looking for a QB by throwing away solid picks until they land a QB.

I think the mentality of "find a QB first and then build around him" as some serious side effects to the game.

No one wants to pay QBs on this board, yet they talk about how you have to have a good one to win.

The posters that agree with your stance won't give a timeline on how many drafts you go through with busts at QB and throwing away picks before you abandon that ideology. And, what about locker room pressure. Star non-QBs will start asking out of your organization because your fielding bad, unfun teams to play for pursuing a QB you don't even want to pay lol.
I didn't say a thing about moving up anywhere in the draft to get a QB. I merely stated a fact born out by statistics.
 
But the odds become considerably worse the deeper into the draft. This is beyond dispute.
I said that earlier. It’s very obvious the chances get much worse later in the draft but if you miss it doesn’t set you back near as much as missing on a first round QB especially one taken in the top 10.
 
I didn't say a thing about moving up anywhere in the draft to get a QB. I merely stated a fact born out by statistics.
Everyone knows that fact/stat, and we are debating the ramifications of pursuing that fact/stat. yet you brought up the stat again.

Are you just stating facts just to state them?

You are leaning towards facts without wanting to discuss ramifications for pursuing that fact.

Play the ChatGPT role and only state facts with no bias....we are discussing the ramifications of pursuing that factual Stat.

Does that make sense? Discuss the ramifications.
 
I think you and the school of thought that is relying on the "you have to spend to move up to get one, only the QBs picked high up in first round have a good chance to work out" are side stepping the cost to the organization and team by relying on a flimsy excuse to throw away solid picks chasing a QB.

I guess in debate you have to clutch onto something.

Final point is, football will turn into a 6 teams being able to compete while every other team is trashing their chances to compete looking for a QB by throwing away solid picks until they land a QB.

I think the mentality of "find a QB first and then build around him" as some serious side effects to the game.

No one wants to pay QBs on this board, yet they talk about how you have to have a good one to win.

The posters that agree with your stance won't give a timeline on how many drafts you go through with busts at QB and throwing away picks before you abandon that ideology. And, what about locker room pressure. Star non-QBs will start asking out of your organization because your fielding bad, unfun teams to play for pursuing a QB you don't even want to pay lol.
So you are basically saying give up on getting a top QB?
 
what is just as bad as missing on a QB pick is over paying for QBs

there is so much evidence of that everywhere in the NFL
 
@KJJ @Wildcat711 @FanofJerry

QBpostulate.png


2024-02-29_Finding-Franchise-QBs-Round-1_Inline_Since-1970.jpg


https://www.foxsports.com/stories/n...alyzing-54-years-of-history-by-draft-position

2024-02-29_Finding-Franchise-QBs-Round-1_Inline_Since-2000.jpg


For the percentage lovers, that’s a 37% chance your first-round selection will pan out to be a solid starter or better, 23% they are your franchise’s future, and less than 7% they will perform at a hall of fame level.

Take this a step further.

Of those 43 quarterbacks, Only nine have made a conference championship appearance. Only four of those quarterbacks have taken their team to the Super Bowl. Only one has a Super Bowl ring…

As it stands since 2010, you the reader have a better chance of winning some form of a lottery prize than an NFL team does of their first-round quarterback taking them to a Super Bowl championship (2.86% vs 2.33%.)
https://sports.yahoo.com/article/first-round-qb-pick-gamble-010000150.html


Using data from Pro-Football-Reference, here are the numbers of quarterbacks to make a Pro Bowl by round since 1994:


Of the quarterbacks taken in the first round, 40% earned at least one Pro Bowl nod. Not great, but far better than any other round.


It seems like every year a team finds a diamond in the rough, a quarterback taken after the first round who turns into a Pro Bowler. The Cowboys got Dak Prescott in the fourth round in 2016, the Raiders selected Derek Carr in the second round of the 2014 draft and the Seahawks nabbed Russell Wilson in the third round in 2012. Those are the exceptions to the rule. If a team wants to draft a Pro Bowler, its best chance of finding a franchise quarterback is in the first round.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/find-pro-bowl-quarterbacks-first-round-nfl-draft





This is from 2010-23.

Totals​

Future Hall of Famers: 3
Franchise QBs: 7
Solid starters: 6
Low-end pro careers: 7
Disappointments: 18
Incomplete: 2

That’s 16 out of 43 drafted quarterbacks currently in the ‘solid starter’ or above category, a hit rate of 37.2%. If you are looking for Hall of Fame or absolute franchise quarterback as your standard, that’s 10 of 43, or 23.3%.

The disappointments category has 18 names or 41.8%. Combine that with the seven quarterbacks in the ‘low-end’ category and that is 58.1% who did not or have not yet given teams what they hoped to get out of a first-round quarterback.

This means the historical expectation would be that if five quarterbacks are taken in Round 1, only two will have careers justifying the draft capital used on them.

Barnwell summed up what teams needing or wanting a quarterback should do, and what they should expect, this way:

In the big picture, what we think of as the typical first-round quarterback is a lot more impressive than what teams actually project to land, especially after adjusting for where they’re being selected. As we approach the 2024 draft and what might be an unprecedented run of quarterbacks from Nos. 1 to 4, history tells us it would be a pleasant surprise if two of them turned into franchise-caliber passers. We’re more likely to see two players who wash out of the league than two future Hall of Famers.
And yet, at the same time, knowing history shouldn’t stop teams from drafting quarterbacks. Taking a quarterback in Round 1 is more valuable now than it has ever been, arguably, in the history of the game. If the Bears, Commanders, Patriots or any of the other teams linked to signal-callers have a quarterback they love in the first round, they should do what they need to do to land them. Just have a healthy expectation for what might happen next.
I can’t argue. If you have a need and a chance, you have to take the swing. Odds are, though, that you are going to get it wrong.

https://www.bigblueview.com/2024/4/11/24103804/how-successful-are-quarterbacks-drafted-in-round-1
 
Many posters would like to start drafting QB's every other year or so. And we should do so. There should always be a healthy competition to keep the position fresh, just like all other positions. A team will probably find a decent backup in a later round, or even get lucky and find a starter. How likely is this scenario?

Here are all the QB's selected on Day Two of the draft since 2016 (Dak's draft year):

Day 2 QB's
2023: Will Levis, Hendon Hooker
2022: Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Corrall
2021: Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills
2020: Jalen Hurts
2019: Drew Lock, Will Grier
2018: Mason Rudolph
2017: Desone Kizer, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard
2016: Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler

A rather sobering list. The Eagles obviously hit big with Hurts. Every other QB is a JAG, backup or out of the league. Hit rate for starter? 1 out of 18.

What happened in the 3rd and 4th round since 2016? Other than Dak and Purdy, nothing but JAG's and players out of the league. 50 QB's, two starters.

Adding this up, that means since 2016, only three QB's out of 68 drafted after the first round became solid starters: Dak, Purdy, and Hurts. Two have been to a Super Bowl, and only one has won the big game. You might get lucky and find a UDFA (Romo). If you want to include 1999 for UDFA, add Warner.

Going back to 2000, Brady, Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, and Jalen Hurts are the only non-1st round QB's to win a Super Bowl. The 1st rounders that did win are Big Ben, Manning, Rodgers, Flacco, Mahomes, and Stafford.

It's hard to find a QB in this league. If you're not signing a FA or trading for a QB, a team must draft and take their shot probably no less than once every two years.
Well we're are not looking for one.

So I would say Zero.
 
We talking SB winning QBs...everyone else is a loser according to this very board.

All-Pro don't mean you lifting Lombardy.

None of yall want to discuss how many years in a row you should throw picks away chasing a QB...or tall about the locker room. You want to talk about chasing a QB you don't want to pay.

"I want him so bad, but I don't want to pay him"

I posted a better stat that got ghosted by this board months ago because its a lame psy-op trying to condition you...it went against your narrative...

Since 2000 there has been 800 attempts by QBs to win a SB and only 9 have gotten done. Only 9 different ones in 800 attempts. That's like 1% of QBs have gotten SBs.

Your gaslighting attempt to move the goalposts to All-Pro is lazy.
 
Everyone knows that fact/stat, and we are debating the ramifications of pursuing that fact/stat. yet you brought up the stat again.

Are you just stating facts just to state them?

You are leaning towards facts without wanting to discuss ramifications for pursuing that fact.

Play the ChatGPT role and only state facts with no bias....we are discussing the ramifications of pursuing that factual Stat.

Does that make sense? Discuss the ramifications.
You want draft ramifications? (Said in my best Jack Nicholson voice)

One: Wallow in QB hell and not even try to find a QB. Bad choice. This usually leads to failure.

Two: If a QB the team believes can be the future is in the draft, get him whether the rest of the team is ready to win or not. This requires a coaching staff/owner to be willing to let said QB go through growing pains as the rest of the pieces are assembled for a team not ready to compete. This is not a bad option if one believes the GM can get the right players and the coaching staff is good enough to get the team on the right track. The Commanders with Jayden Daniels is a good example of this, as is Bo Nix. Dan Snyder selling the team helped a lot!

Three: Assemble the pieces first, than get the QB. Having a ready-made team for a QB is ideal, but risky. First, the QB talent may suddenly not be there to draft. Secondly, the team may not be bad enough to get a top pick, so draft capital would have to be expended to move up and take "The Guy." But if the team is ready, may very well be worth the risk. Windows are short for most teams in this league given contract lengths.

Four: Try to do everything at the same time with team building and QB. This is very difficult, but KC and Philly have pulled this off in recent years. Detroit and Baltimore are trying to do the same. Teams that pull this off successfully or at least are in the game for years are teams that have strong ownership, seasoned GM's with some degree of freedom, and experienced coaches. KC had the framework of a great team in the making when Reid pulled the trade up for Mahomes. Philly was going through a bit of turmoil with the eventual dumping of Wentz, but let Hurts grow into the role with a team that had a bucket full of vet leadership (Kelce, Johnson, Cox, Graham). Both KC and Philly have the GM's to get the job done. I believe Detroit and Baltimore are knocking on the Super Bowl door.

Five: I suppose one could just stay the course and hope for the best. Most likely that's also a failure.
 

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
464,914
Messages
13,838,515
Members
23,782
Latest member
Cowboyfan4ver
Back
Top