What defensive statistic is the best measure of a defense

[Melonfeud]

* no brainier, blindfolded : key backbreaking $tops on crucial crunch time 3&4th down plays,,,&,,,Opportunist snatch/ snagged& plain ol' TAKE-AWAYS in an straight, true & professional seamlessly streamlined happenstance of artful fashion,,,oh,yeah! BABY!!!

 

[Canada180]

According to the 20 year profile of SB champions the most important stat is turnovers.

There have been some pretty pedestrian defenses on championship teams in terms of points and yardage. However, they make iup for it in the ability to create game changing plays like turnovers. This stops an opponent drive and often gives the offense excellent field position.

The Giants defense was ranked 25th in points, 27th in yardage but 5th in turnovers.

The Saints were ranked 20th in points, 25th in yardage but 2nd in turnovers

Agreed...but isnt it more important that those high turnover rates occur IN the Super Bowl. That would be the surest indicator of success

 

[kskboys]

how can it be anything else? points ultimately become the final arbiter of winning or losing...

Because we're evaluating the effectiveness of the D. That's how. Points allowed seldom gives you an accurate representation as there are too many factors involved such as starting field position, type of O, TO's, ST's. Every yard given up by the D was given up by the D. Points allowed is often a poor representation of how a D fared.

 

[kskboys]

The eye test tells it all. You know if a defense is any good, or if it's good enough to win with.

What does a good ranking mean if you didnt win, or a bad one if you did?

Garbage time skews too many numbers, even points allowed.

But yeah points allowed is a better indicator than yardage if it has to be something

No, it's not.

There is no ranking that by itself truly defines a D. Yards per play/game is prolly the closest.

 

[kskboys]

Because points can be conceded in other phases of the game.

Man, Dan, I'm going to steal that!!!!!!!!!!!! I've been trying to explain to these guys, and you put it awesomely!!!

 

[Whirlwin]

Turnover ratio, takeaways are game changers. Additional possessions for you, fewer possessions for them. Plus that, turnovers are demoralizing.

Points allowed doesn't take into consideration points differential. A team could be top 10 in scoring D and still miss the playoffs. The record isn't devised by the points a team allowed but the differential in scoring.

I agree with you to a point. That’s more of an individual achievement I think though. Turnovers interceptions

 

[Whirlwin]

Its turnovers. Most of the time you can guess who wins a game just by the turnover #'s

I agree but isn’t that more or less an individual accomplishments

 

[sean10mm]

Points allowed. Hot Take: the point differential decides the game.

Belichick's defenses often concede yards between the 20s but are often near the top in the red zone.

Look at it from the opposite POV: an offense that puts up yards between the 20s but not points is seen as the loser.

 

[kskboys]

Points allowed. Hot Take: the point differential decides the game.

Belichick's defenses often concede yards between the 20s but are often near the top in the red zone.

Look at it from the opposite POV: an offense that puts up yards between the 20s but not points is seen as the loser.

Hotter point: You can't score w/o moving the ball.

Seriously, you're looking at the end game and disregarding all the factors that got you there.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Its best to factor them all in. However which one stat would you say is the best indicator as to the quality of a defense

And if use an advanced statistic, then fully explain the formula

obviously points allowed, but some of the others that will lead to that

• 3rd down conversion
• 1st downs per offensive drive
• sacks
• interceptions

kind of all of them tied in together.....one leading to the other....I think sacks, is probably one of the most important....sacks, and QB pressures usually go hand in hand....QB pressures and interceptions usually go hand in hand....3rd down conversion and pressure usually go hand in hand...and all of them together translate to points allowed.

so if we are not where we need to be on points allowed, then you start to dig into why....like garrett's defenses didn't get a lot of interceptions, allowing too many second chances, leading to 3rd down conversions...longer drives, poorer field positions.....although there were years we had good number of sacks and pressure.... our pass pressure was inconsistent (high deviation)…..

 

[kskboys]

obviously points allowed, but some of the others that will lead to that

• 3rd down conversion
• 1st downs per offensive drive
• sacks
• interceptions

kind of all of them tied in together.....one leading to the other....I think sacks, is probably one of the most important....sacks, and QB pressures usually go hand in hand....QB pressures and interceptions usually go hand in hand....3rd down conversion and pressure usually go hand in hand...and all of them together translate to points allowed.

so if we are not where we need to be on points allowed, then you start to dig into why....like garrett's defenses didn't get a lot of interceptions, allowing too many second chances, leading to 3rd down conversions...longer drives, poorer field positions.....although there were years we had good number of sacks and pressure.... our pass pressure was inconsistent (high deviation)…..

It's not obvious. Too many factors involved in points scored to use it as a standalone stat. I'd say the opposite is true, it's obvious it's not points allowed.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

Defensive DVOA
Points per drive allowed
Yards per drive allowed
TO % per drive
Pressure %

Some of the worst:
Points per game
Total rushing yards allowed

 

[cern]

I agree but isn’t that more or less an individual accomplishments

not really. a fierce pass rush pressures the qb into making mistakes and throwing picks.

 

[Brax]

So you're saying the offense has been carrying the defense?

He's saying neither O or D was worth much thus 8-8. For a D you are right in most cases turn overs is most likely the best barometer of a defense.

 

[fivetwos]

No, it's not.

There is no ranking that by itself truly defines a D. Yards per play/game is prolly the closest.

YARDS allowed?

In a sport where you trade exactly that for time when the scoreboard dictates?

Disagree

 

[Whirlwin]

not really. a fierce pass rush pressures the qb into making mistakes and throwing picks.

Yeah I know that. But tell that to Dion

 

[plasticman]

The question is are those examples consistent, or are the outliers?

From my perspective, the defense that allows the fewest points gives your team the best opportunity to win.

And the offense that scores the most points gives your team the best chance to win. That's rather obvious. But how do you get your defense to allow the fewest points and your offense to score more points simultaneously?

You want something that ends their drive and gives you an extra offensive drive, sometimes with excellent field position.

That would be defensive turnovers.

 

[DallasInDC]

And the offense that scores the most points gives your team the best chance to win. That's rather obvious. But how do you get your defense to allow the fewest points and your offense to score more points simultaneously?

You want something that ends their drive and gives you an extra offensive drive, sometimes with excellent field position.

That would be defensive turnovers.

Or three and outs. A team can drive the length of the field and the defense creates a turnover inside their redzone. Compare that with offense gets the ball at their own 25 and you stop them with a three and out at inside the 35 yard line. Which would you rather have?

 

[WillieBeamen]

And the offense that scores the most points gives your team the best chance to win. That's rather obvious. But how do you get your defense to allow the fewest points and your offense to score more points simultaneously?

You want something that ends their drive and gives you an extra offensive drive, sometimes with excellent field position.

That would be defensive turnovers.

The Cowboys were 2nd in the league in takeaways in 2014


The Cowboys were 21st in the league in takeaways in 2018



Off memory, which defense do you think was better?

 

[Bobhaze]

Its best to factor them all in. However which one stat would you say is the best indicator as to the quality of a defense

And if use an advanced statistic, then fully explain the formula

Point differential is huge. And although it’s a stat reflecting both sides of the ball, obviously to have a +150 point differential, you have to be a really good team overall. The ravens, chiefs and niners had the 3 best point differentials last year, but we were still in the top ten with +113, which had us ranked 7th.
BUT....we were the ONLY team in the top ten of point differential that did not have a winning record. That’s bad coaching.