What "hit rate" would define the Cowboys draft

[Woods]

as a success in your mind (a couple years down the line)?

In other words, we have 11 picks going into tomorrow.

Of course, JJ will likely trade around quite a bit.

But regardless, we initially have 11 picks, what type of success rate would you like to see?

Obviously, we aren't going to hit on every pick.

Personally, I'd like to come away with 6 solid football players this weekend, regardless if we trade down to get more picks or up (and only end up with 7 picks) or whatever. That would be my definition of a successful draft.

In my mind, whether we use 11 picks to get the 6 players or only use 7 draft picks to get the 6 players, I don't care either way.

And by hitting on a player, I mean drafting a solid role player and/or starter. For example, I'd consider Choice a hit rather than a miss even though he's not a starter.

 

[big dog cowboy]

My guess we end up with 7 or 8 players with half being solid contributors. So my answer is 50%. That is at a minimum.

 

[cowboyjoe]

to be successful for the cowboys with this draft, i think that the cowboys need to hit at least 7 picks no matter what

last year we had 5 solid hits,
so i say now we need at least 7 hits
we need a NT, backup young QB, OLB, ILB, OT or OG, FB or FB/TE, Wr with speed. Thats at least 7 positions, granted the linebacker you might be able to hit at least with one, and use other one on a big DE.

 

[Woods]

to be successful for the cowboys with this draft, i think that the cowboys need to hit at least 7 picks no matter what

last year we had 5 solid hits,
so i say now we need at least 7 hits
we need a NT, backup young QB, OLB, ILB, OT or OG, FB or FB/TE, Wr with speed. Thats at least 7 positions, granted the linebacker you might be able to hit at least with one, and use other one on a big DE.

That would be nice. About a 64% success rate.

I think that would definitely be acceptable to most franchises as a good draft.

 

[MONT17]

all I want is 1 OL who can make the coaches I mean Jerry consider letting go a starter!


that will give me a little faith that the scouting dept. has some ability to rebuild this line!

 

[CF74]

45% or better is good or at least 4 solid players, 5 would be spectacular...

 

[DFWJC]

I we come away with 4-5 solid contributors and at least 2 eventual starters, I would be ahppy.

 

[arglebargle]

The flame out rate for draft picks is very high, even in this 'play-em-now' era. Stats I have seen show around a 25% rate of success with 2nd rounders, with decreasing odds further down. Last year's selections were phenomanal.

Realistically, 4 or 5 guys producing on the field this year would represent tremendously good drafting. Once again.

Injuries, of course, may give guys chances to shine, and I am all in favor of taking lots of shots in the draft, as it gives you more chances to hit on someone. Jimmie Johnson's technique. If we have 5-7 major injuries, as we did last year, we may be needing those guys pretty quick.

 

[Ceasaleo88]

The flame out rate for draft picks is very high, even in this 'play-em-now' era. Stats I have seen show around a 25% rate of success with 2nd rounders, with decreasing odds further down. Last year's selections were phenomanal.

Realistically, 4 or 5 guys producing on the field this year would represent tremendously good drafting. Once again.

Injuries, of course, may give guys chances to shine, and I am all in favor of taking lots of shots in the draft, as it gives you more chances to hit on someone. Jimmie Johnson's technique. If we have 5-7 major injuries, as we did last year, we may be needing those guys pretty quick.

The greatest thing about our front office is that we clearly we have a plan. We know who we're going to sign and not sign in FA, and plug any holes. And go into the draft, truly being able to pick the BPA. They said we did that last year and look what happened. And we know that we're just looking for ballers, letting the numbers take a backseat to what they see on tape (THANK GOODNESS!!!)

I say we can get 6 solid guys out this draft. The draft philosophy we're developing is pretty tough.

 

[Disturbed]

I have seen this information somewhere...don't remember where. They have the success rates by draft round and position.

Success rate declines by round...and some positions higher success rate than others....QB & WR are the lowest...don't remember offensive lineman results.

Does anyone have this information? If so, please post.

 

[Verdict]

The "hit rate" can be a little bit deceiving unless you include rookie UDFA's in the draft class. It really doesn't matter if a player was drafted or not, for the most part if they "stick" on the roster and have some "meaningful contribution". For example I would consider Romo to be part of the rookie class of the year he was signed, even though he went undrafted. His selection and acquisition reflect how well the scouting department, coach and GM are doing in one of the most important team functions, which is the task of "acquiring talent".

 

[yentl911]

Four solid starters would be a great draft by anyone's standards. if we could get three starters, and a couple special teams head hunters I would be happy.

 

[Woods]

The "hit rate" can be a little bit deceiving unless you include rookie UDFA's in the draft class. It really doesn't matter if a player was drafted or not, for the most part if they "stick" on the roster and have some "meaningful contribution". For example I would consider Romo to be part of the rookie class of the year he was signed, even though he went undrafted. His selection and acquisition reflect how well the scouting department, coach and GM are doing in one of the most important team functions, which is the task of "acquiring talent".

I agree.

So how many in total would you need to consider the draft and UDFA period a success?

 

[Canadian BoyzFan]

I'd like 4 GOOD players.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

If you can ge two starters out of a draft then its a solid draft. When you start hitting in the late rounds and get 4 ro more starters then its an excellent draft.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

If you can ge two starters out of a draft then its a solid draft. When you start hitting in the late rounds and get 4 ro more starters then its an excellent draft.

as long as we don't draft a receiver with our 1st pick, right?

 

[Verdict]

I agree.

So how many in total would you need to consider the draft and UDFA period a success?

I think it depends on how solid your roster is relative to how many you need to stick. This year, I think we need the following:

1. One Interior OL (G/C Rotational Quality- Eventual Starter)
2. One Offensive Tackle (Rotational Quality-Eventual Starter)
3. One safety (Starting Quality)
4. One 3/4 defensive end (should be able to replace Spears next year)
5. Long Snapper (replace Ladoucier) he is getting long in the tooth and his cap hit is disproprtionately high
6. One inside linebacker
7. One outside linebacker (pass rusher-rotational quality-spot starter)
8. One corner that is capable of spot starting duty this year
9. One tight end caple of being the third tight end/ hybrid tweener possible
10. Backup developmental QB

I think #1, #2, #3, #4, #6, #7 and #10 are pretty much "must haves" if we are going to continue to improve or maintain our current level of play. If you don't think the receivers we have on the roster are good enough you could add a receiver to this list if you like.

So I think we need a minimum of 7 to contribute this year, except the 3rd QB would just need to develop and stick, not necessarily play. I think there is room on the roster for another 3 to make the roster and make an immediate impact.