What Really Happened

percyhoward

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The single most devastating event was not the injury to Tony Romo, it was not resigning DeMarco Murray.
The main reasons we went 4-12 were 1) our inability to pass and 2) our inability to stop the pass. Our offense's passer rating ranked 30th, while our defense ranked 20th. That put our differential at 29th.

Since 2004, which is as far back as I can find information on passer rating differential, no team that ranked in the bottom 5 has had a winning record. That's zero winning records out of sixty teams. So there's a very strong correlation between ranking very low in PRD and losing, regardless of what the running backs do. And Dallas' running game this past season was obviously much, much better than its pass offense or pass defense anyway.
 

plasticman

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The cowboys would have gone 10-6 without the Romo and Dez injuries.....

It took a major miracle to win game #1. It was a game the Cowboys would have lost 4 out of 5 times. Not many opponents will assist by imploding at just the right time.

Against the Eagles, the offense scored six points until the 4th quarter. Were it not for the 4th quarter bomb from Weeden in the 4th quarter, the offense would have been outscores by its own defense.

The offense was dysfunctional before Romo's injury.
 

plasticman

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In the seasons of 2011 through 2013 the Cowboys posted three consecutive 8-8 records. They were a combined 24-24 during those three years.

They were 13-5 whenever DeMarco Murray had 15 or more carries. They were 11-19 when he didn’t.

Murray averaged 5.7 yards a carry for the combined carries in the five losses.

All five losses occurred in 2012, a year in which the Cowboys started all five offensive linemen at positions they had never played before as a Cowboy. DeMarco averaged 4.12 yards a carry, the exact same average Randle had in 2015 behind an offensive line with three Pro Bowlers.

When Murray carried the ball 20 or more times in those mediocre seasons, the Cowboys were an undefeated 11-0.

This was before the great season of 2014.

This was before his “one season wonder”, Cowboy record breaking, All Pro performance of 2014.

This was before the Cowboy’s elite offensive line, the one capable of producing similar numbers for any other “average” back.


In 2010, the season prior to Murray’s arrival in 2011, Tony Romo was injured and played in only 6 games. From 2011 to 2014, Murray’s four seasons with the team, Romo missed a total of 2 games. Last season Romo played in only 4 games.

DeMarco Murray was the Cowboy’s 3rd leading receiver in the combined seasons of 2100-2014, averaging 42 catches a game. He was noted for being an excellent pass blocker.

Tony Romo was a better, more efficient, and much healthier quarterback when DeMarco Murray was a Dallas Cowboy.

The offensive line was a more dominating, inspired, and cohesive unit.

The receivers were more open and capable of bigger plays.

In this four year period, the Cowboys were ranked 10th in turnover margin. Last season, they were dead last. They were ranked #6 in time of possession, #3 in average yards per offensive play in the combined 2011-2015 seasons.

Let me make this clear….and read this twice if you have to:

It’s not DeMarco Murray’s individual performance that made this team better and begin winning in the four years he was here. It’s the way in which his presence improved the performance of his teammates that enabled the team to improve.

The numbers only tell part of the story. The rest would include his leadership, determination, and attitude. He gave this offense a sense of swagger.

DeMarco Murray was the right kind of player.

The meager contract offer and subsequent stance that this team could run the ball and win without him was the wrong kind of decision.

But then, what would you expect?

“Emmitt Smith is a luxury, not a necessity” - Jerry Jones, 1993,
...........on his decision to allow Emmitt to sit out the first two games of the 1993 season in a contract dispute. The Cowboys went 0-2. After relenting, the Cowboys went 12-2 the rest of the way in the regular season, repeated as Super Bowl champions, Emmitt Smith was the Super Bowl MVP.
 

blindzebra

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In the seasons of 2011 through 2013 the Cowboys posted three consecutive 8-8 records. They were a combined 24-24 during those three years.

They were 13-5 whenever DeMarco Murray had 15 or more carries. They were 11-19 when he didn’t.

Murray averaged 5.7 yards a carry for the combined carries in the five losses.

All five losses occurred in 2012, a year in which the Cowboys started all five offensive linemen at positions they had never played before as a Cowboy. DeMarco averaged 4.12 yards a carry, the exact same average Randle had in 2015 behind an offensive line with three Pro Bowlers.

When Murray carried the ball 20 or more times in those mediocre seasons, the Cowboys were an undefeated 11-0.

This was before the great season of 2014.

This was before his “one season wonder”, Cowboy record breaking, All Pro performance of 2014.

This was before the Cowboy’s elite offensive line, the one capable of producing similar numbers for any other “average” back.


In 2010, the season prior to Murray’s arrival in 2011, Tony Romo was injured and played in only 6 games. From 2011 to 2014, Murray’s four seasons with the team, Romo missed a total of 2 games. Last season Romo played in only 4 games.

DeMarco Murray was the Cowboy’s 3rd leading receiver in the combined seasons of 2100-2014, averaging 42 catches a game. He was noted for being an excellent pass blocker.

Tony Romo was a better, more efficient, and much healthier quarterback when DeMarco Murray was a Dallas Cowboy.

The offensive line was a more dominating, inspired, and cohesive unit.

The receivers were more open and capable of bigger plays.

In this four year period, the Cowboys were ranked 10th in turnover margin. Last season, they were dead last. They were ranked #6 in time of possession, #3 in average yards per offensive play in the combined 2011-2015 seasons.

Let me make this clear….and read this twice if you have to:

It’s not DeMarco Murray’s individual performance that made this team better and begin winning in the four years he was here. It’s the way in which his presence improved the performance of his teammates that enabled the team to improve.

The numbers only tell part of the story. The rest would include his leadership, determination, and attitude. He gave this offense a sense of swagger.

DeMarco Murray was the right kind of player.

The meager contract offer and subsequent stance that this team could run the ball and win without him was the wrong kind of decision.

But then, what would you expect?

“Emmitt Smith is a luxury, not a necessity” - Jerry Jones, 1993,
...........on his decision to allow Emmitt to sit out the first two games of the 1993 season in a contract dispute. The Cowboys went 0-2. After relenting, the Cowboys went 12-2 the rest of the way in the regular season, repeated as Super Bowl champions, Emmitt Smith was the Super Bowl MVP.

I love the old cause and effect stat to try to prove a point.

We did not win because he got 20 carries, he got 20 carries because we were winning.

One more time, we would not have won one more game with Murray, not one.
 

Gameover

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Top 7-12 qb got hurt and Cassel played as bad as any I've seen.

Didn't help that D didn't start to play good enough until after patriots game.
 

percyhoward

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In the seasons of 2011 through 2013 the Cowboys posted three consecutive 8-8 records. They were a combined 24-24 during those three years.

They were 13-5 whenever DeMarco Murray had 15 or more carries. They were 11-19 when he didn’t.

When Murray carried the ball 20 or more times in those mediocre seasons, the Cowboys were an undefeated 11-0.
As BZ already said, you're confusing cause and effect. Murray got more carries in the wins because teams run more when they're ahead late in games. "15 carries" and "20 carries" are technically whole-game numbers, but they're really based on 2nd-half play calling as a reaction to having leads.

From 2011-13, Dallas had the following ratios based on scoring margin in the 2nd half of games:

when leading
pass 50%
run 50%

when trailing
pass 75%
run 25%

In those three seasons, Murray averaged 17 carries in the wins, and 12 carries in the losses. But when you break down his carries by half, it looks like this.

Murray's 1st-half rushes/game
in wins 8
in losses 8

Murray's 2nd-half rushes/game
in wins 9
in losses 4

When we were winning, we ran more in the 2nd half. When we were losing, we ran less. The 2nd half is where your "whole-game" numbers come from -- there was no difference in the 1st half. The same pattern carries over to 2014, by the way.
In this four year period, the Cowboys were ranked 10th in turnover margin. Last season, they were dead last. They were ranked #6 in time of possession, #3 in average yards per offensive play in the combined 2011-2014 seasons.
In these categories that you mention, Murray's seasons don't show any significant difference.

Yards per play (NFL rank)
2006-09 5.9 (2nd)
2010 5.6 (9th)
2011-14 5.8 (3rd)
2015 5.5 (13th)

Time of Avg Possession
2006-09 2:43 (8th)
2010 2:48 (9th)
2011-14 2:48 (5th)
2015 2:59 (3rd)

Turnover Margin (avg rank)
2006-09 17th
2010 13th
2011-14 13th
2015 32nd

Passer rating would correlate to wins more than any of the above stats.
2006-09 7th
2010 12th
2011-14 6th
2015 30th

So would touchdown percentage.
2006-09 5th
2010 11th
2011-14 5th
2015 29th
 

CCBoy

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Percy, Looking at those indicators, one would surmise that 2015 was the anomaly...and we all should know why.

LIttle effective passing due to injury to both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.
 

percyhoward

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Percy, Looking at those indicators, one would surmise that 2015 was the anomaly...and we all should know why.
We should. But when you operate under a false assumption (that Murray was the main reason for the offense's 2014 success), it leads to faulty conclusions (that Murray's absence was the main reason for failure in 2015).

Romo on 2nd down, 2014
When 1st-down play gained 3-9 yards

51 of 75 500 yd 8 td 0 int 6.7 ypa 122.1 rating (NFL avg 94.9)
43.2% converted (NFL avg 45.4%)
When 1st-down play gained between -2 and +2 yards
65 of 81 811 yd 6 td 1 in 10.0 ypa 127.9 rating (NFL avg 87.4)
45.3% converted (NFL avg 30.1%)

In 2014, Romo was actually better passing on 2nd down after an unsuccessful 1st-down play.
 

CCBoy

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Thanks Percy...I'm like the computer on Short Circuit: 'More imput, more imput...'
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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We should. But when you operate under a false assumption (that Murray was the main reason for the offense's 2014 success), it leads to faulty conclusions (that Murray's absence was the main reason for failure in 2015).

Romo on 2nd down, 2014
When 1st-down play gained 3-9 yards

51 of 75 500 yd 8 td 0 int 6.7 ypa 122.1 rating (NFL avg 94.9)
43.2% converted (NFL avg 45.4%)
When 1st-down play gained between -2 and +2 yards
65 of 81 811 yd 6 td 1 in 10.0 ypa 127.9 rating (NFL avg 87.4)
45.3% converted (NFL avg 30.1%)

In 2014, Romo was actually better passing on 2nd down after an unsuccessful 1st-down play.

Main reason seems besides the point to me. I think Murray was dramatically overrated as was born out by his experience in Philly but I think it remiss to say he was not a reason.

Really when it comes down to it, the personnel options we have real opportunity for upgrade on offense are at WR2 and RB1. Would upgrading Williams to a top WR help more than upgrading DMC to a top RB? I just cannot help but think a gamebreaking back like Henry or Elliott would help at least as much or more. I am not advocating Elliott in the first mind you.
 

percyhoward

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I think Murray was dramatically overrated, but I think it remiss to say he was not a reason.
It would be remiss to say we absolutely couldn't have won another game or two if we'd had Murray, but it would hard to take it any further than that.
 

Bleu Star

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What happened last season to the Dallas Cowboys can be summarized by a single Tom Landry quote:

“Setting a goal is not the main thing. It is deciding how you will go about achieving it and staying with that plan.”


The Dallas Cowboys did not stay with their plan. You remember “The Plan”, don’t you? It was completely described, detail by detail, by the new Head Coach Jason Garrett back in the spring of 2011:

Achieve stronger, more tight knit squads by assigning playing time according to competition among players for starting positions. This pushes the starter to work harder to keep his job, backups no longer felt trapped by circumstances such as playing behind a guy with a huge contract. According to Jason Garrett, a players salary was irrelevant, it all came down to who was playing the best.

Maintain value in your draft position by never reaching for a need, instead draft the BPA. This would insure that the team didn’t sacrifice better talent at one position by focusing specifically on another, even if the former squad was perceived as not needing such an upgrade. Jasson Garrett explained that the idea of a squad not needing addition elite talent was flawed as was the philosophy of “filling a need”

First of all, if a team needs to fill a need, that is, they feel as though there is a “hole” at a specific position, then the team didn’t need one player, they need at least two. It had been obvious in the past, especially in 2010, that if you feel that you have filled a hole by acquiring and paying for a very good player then you failed to account for the fact that the average starter each NFL season misses from 3-5 games a year. That is, you could sign the next Bob Lilly at DT next year but you will still be one play away from exactly where you were before. And “before” used to be using your backup, 7th round rookie, or an undrafted career backup, or emergency stop gap player though trade or the street.

A single player does not fill to need, a squad of highly motivated, highly competitive players do that.

Jason Garrett was also adamantly opposed to trading future picks for players. Value was sacrificed , you could almost think of it as a cradit card. The Cowboys would get better talent now but lesser talent in the future. The greatest issue with this is that there is never any guarantee such a sacrifice would contribute to achieving the goal, in fact it rarely does. Remember the WR’s Joey Galloway and Roy Williams?

Jason Garrett wanted the “right kind of players” which he described as hard workers who loved to play the game and would constantly strive to get better and help make the team better. They were good citizens. They were guys that had worked hard in college and has achieved a high level of production.

You may not have noticed that the vast majority of draftees were 4 year college players who graduated. The rare exceptions were mostly top 1st round talent, such as Tyron Smith.

The majority of offensive players drafted from 2011 to 2014 were team captains but another attribute went generally unnoticed. Most were All Academic. Jason Garrett liked intelligent offensive players because they could learn and improve quicker.

The team would work hard, become cohesive because they knew that a great team isn’t built of elite players, it is one built with the type of players that build an elite team. Talent is important , of course, but familiarity, teamwork , and playing for each other are also critical components.

A greatly improved team is not usually the result of the previous off-season’s diligence in finding a few new players that contribute through their productivity. It has far more to do with an increase in the unity of the current players. They have practiced another full season together, they become more familiar with each other’s nuances on the field. They go through practice plays so many times that they become far more successful anticipating what each other is going to do in particular circumstances. They become synced. A runningback knows how to attack a hole at a specific angle because he is instinctively aware of his lineman’s physical presence. For example, he may have a guy with a larger than typical girth, i, e. Nate Newton. He will automatically make a different type of shift to navigate around his lineman to avoid getting bottled up.

A RB can look pretty ridiculous when he doesn’t know his lineman, he trips over them, he runs into them, A quarterback unfamiliar with his RB can create poor hand-offs, poor blocking by that RB, even turnovers.

It is impossible to separate the individual talents of players from what their team does or does not do for them as a result of being in sync. It should be no secret that successful teams didn’t just appear one particular season out of the blue. I can guarantee that in almost every instance, there was stability in the coaching staff, the offensive and defensive systems, and in the players themselves. There will be a core of players that begin their success several seasons prior by playing and practicing togeher and developing chemistry. When you look back at 95% of the championship teams you can find 3 or 4 offensive linemen that had been playing together for several years, likewise with several other of the squads, the secondary would be another great example.

However, I say again, a critical component is to acquire talent that fits your scheme and players that want to be team guys and work hard to get better and be good leaders.

This is the reason why so many posts about getting this player or getting that player is irrelevant. It is one of the many major flaws in Jerry Jones’s ability to be a successful GM. You simply cannot take the “plug and play “ approach to acquiring talent. The new players will not know the system, they will not know the players, they will not play with the confidence that their teammates will react a specific way on a play leaving him free to make more aggressive moves that create big plays.

This is the single greatest reason for the lack of turnovers last season. Defenders had to play tentatively, more cautiously because there were so many lineup changes due to suspensions and injury. There was far too much dependence on the performance of players that were not with the team the previous years, particularly along the defensive line. The season ending injury to Scandrick, the nagging injuries to Lee, and the injuries along the defensive line resulted in conditions that limited the risk taking of going for a INT instead of defending it or trying to create turnovers by attacking the ball and not the ball carrier.

This is also why the single most devastating event was not the injury to Tony Romo, it was not resigning
DeMarco Murray. Forget perceived talent level, forget individual accomplishments, this team was far far better with him than without, period. Demarco’s Cowboys career was perfectly aligned along the entire rebuilding of the offensive line. He came in with Tyron in 2011. He suffered through 2012, a season in which all five O-line starters had never played their position previously for the Cowboys. Smith and Free were switched and the interior was brand new.

DeMarco started in both seasons that our other 2 1st round picks started on the line their rookie seasons. He knew them. They knew him, in fact, pretty much, only him. They could develop a rhythm that created a superior running game, consistently relieving Romo from the pressure of having to make a play to keep them alive. You remember the benefits to his results that year. It was no wonder then how he almost instantly began to lament the departure of Murray while diplomatically making it sound less than a criticism of that decision.

Do you remember the talk early in the season on how the offensive line was playing so poorly, how they might have been overrated? No that was never the issue. They didn’t work any less harder, they just could not benefit from that work because their RB’s didn’t know where the linemen would be and the linemen wasn’t familiar with their RB’s tendencies. You don’t pick that up in one off-season. How many RB’s since 2000 that were Pro Bowlers played up to that level the first season on a new team?

It’s funny how, by the end of the season, some fans were disappointed that Mcfadden didn’t start earlier in the year, how things ,may have been different. It wouldn’t have been different, you saw those late result because McFadden and the O-line were slowly developing that familiarity during the season. The more they played together the better McFadden looked, the better the O-line looked. It was that simple. A great part of the reason Randle struggled was due to this lack of cohesiveness, he was never even close to the sufficient reps necessary to establish that bond. He was only successful in the first drive, when they most likely featured the plays he was most familiar with. As the game progressed and they called less familiar plays, it was chaos on the line, there was that tentativeness, the lack of familiarity. Forget the meat on the bone, Randle couldn’t find the diner plate after the 1st quarter.

This also explains Murray’s lack of production for the Eagles, particularly in the 1st half of the season. He was dealing, not only with a completely new line, but a new coach, new system, new quarterback, and a new role. Small wonder why he may be actively campaigning for a release because guess what happens in Phillie next season. New coach, new system, new role, quite possibly a new quarterback. There are only so many years in a RB career and he can’t afford another learning season.

And now back to my point about the “plug and play” mentality for many fans and our illustrious GM. We have all seen this before, and what we are seeing is the lack of a critical component in “the Plan”. That would be patience. It takes patience to wait for players to get better, to wait for a team to get better, particularly if you believe that the team is very close to reaching the goal associated with this plan. Therein lies another great trap. A team doesn’t have to be “close” to a goal to miss out on it. A team can be right on top of it. They can be, hands down, the best performing team of the regular season and still not achieve the goal of a Super Bowl. There are too many outside variables, too many “what if’s” for any team to think that they can focus on a specific season and make decisions that pertain to winning in a specific year while sacrificing resources for a future year.

Over 50% of the time, the best NFL teams in terms of comparing the combined indicators like won-loss, offesnive and defensive rankings, power rankings etc, that team fails. There are examples throughout NFL history. The Vikings going all out on the Walker trade is the best example but the Vikings were also the very best team in 1975 and probably should have won the Super Bowl except for a prayer and a throw by one Roger Staubach. The Rams have been the best twice in the 1970’s only to exit in the divisional round. The 49es were the best, stat-wise in both 1992 and 1995, two Cowboy Super Bowl years. The Cowbosy were the best in 1994.

To summarize, putting all your NFL eggs in one basket is foolhardy and history confirms it. However, that won’t stop Jerry Jones, the direct source of the “impatience factor”. The signing of Hardy, the commitment to Randle and the devastating decision making we are about to witness in a month will be further proof that Jerry Jones could be a GM for a thousand years and he still would not comprehend the true reason for the team’s demise this past season.

It’s not just Murray, of course. It included his impatience with the Cowboys results with Weeden (bck to that unfamiliarity factor), It included rushing Romo back too early. It included overpaying for average alent on the veteran free agent market, none more obvious that Brandon Carr…..at least this month.

How do the Cowboys right the ship? They must recommit to the plan, and stick with it. With that said, there is nothing wrong with the possibility that the BPA at #4 will be a RB. If so, the Cowboys should take him in 2016 so he will be a factor in 2017 and beyond. The same is also true in the 2nd round as it pertains to the position of QB. If this team was capable of grooming an undrafted rookie for three years then it should be more than capable of doing the same for a 2nd round pick while finding an intelligent choice of a veteran backup.

They should refocus on the “right kind of players” while rejecting any notion that the “wrong kind of player” is worth the risk, talent-wise. It is not the failure to deliver results that is the primary risk, it is his infiltration and corruption of the team chemistry, the team unity, the real and primary reason for the success of all those great teams of the past.

Bravo
 

plasticman

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Cause and effect?

Greatly overrated?

2011....The Cowboys begin the season 2-3, Romo has a QB rating of 91.7. Then Murray starts and rushes for over 700 yards in his first 7 starts. During this time, Romo's rating climbs to 102.1. The Cowboys go 5-2 in those games. After he is injured in the Giants game, the Cowboys finish the final four games 1-3.

2014....Murray breaks a 40 year old record for consecutive 100 yards games to begin a season. He breaks Emmitt Smith's season record, Tony Romo throws an average of 29 passes a game, a career low. He becomes the #1 rated passer in the league as the Cowboys go to the playoffs for the first time in 5 seasons.

2014.....with Murray....12-4

2015......without Murray.....4-12

How's that for "cause and effect"

Murray could run the ball because they were winning?

In 2012 Murray averaged 4 yards a carry when the Cowboys won. He averaged 4.2 yards a carry when they lost.

In 2013 Murray averaged 5.2 yards a carry in games they won. He averaged 5.2 yards a carry in games they lost.

In 2014 Murray averaged 4.7 yards a carry in games the Cowboys won. He averaged 5.1 yards a carry in games they lost.

So much for only being able to run the ball when they were winning.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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It would be remiss to say we absolutely couldn't have won another game or two if we'd had Murray, but it would hard to take it any further than that.

Given that there are only the barest notions of actual mechanics, certainty is impossible. Stats at this point should help more to intuit the mechanics as opposed to seek predictions particularly given different conditions.

I don't want Murray. I want a Gayle Sayers game breaking type or a fearsome power/speed combinations like AP. Murray was a jack of all trades master of none.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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You guys should look into feedback systems. It's likely there is a reciprocity instead of it being one way or the other.
 

blindzebra

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Cause and effect?

Greatly overrated?

2011....The Cowboys begin the season 2-3, Romo has a QB rating of 91.7. Then Murray starts and rushes for over 700 yards in his first 7 starts. During this time, Romo's rating climbs to 102.1. The Cowboys go 5-2 in those games. After he is injured in the Giants game, the Cowboys finish the final four games 1-3.

2014....Murray breaks a 40 year old record for consecutive 100 yards games to begin a season. He breaks Emmitt Smith's season record, Tony Romo throws an average of 29 passes a game, a career low. He becomes the #1 rated passer in the league as the Cowboys go to the playoffs for the first time in 5 seasons.

2014.....with Murray....12-4

2015......without Murray.....4-12

How's that for "cause and effect"

Murray could run the ball because they were winning?

In 2012 Murray averaged 4 yards a carry when the Cowboys won. He averaged 4.2 yards a carry when they lost.

In 2013 Murray averaged 5.2 yards a carry in games they won. He averaged 5.2 yards a carry in games they lost.

In 2014 Murray averaged 4.7 yards a carry in games the Cowboys won. He averaged 5.1 yards a carry in games they lost.

So much for only being able to run the ball when they were winning.

LOL, cherry pick much?

Who said anything about YPC? You are the one bringing up that stupid 20 carries equals a win nonsense. Percy clearly pointed out that when we were ahead...usually through the passing game...we ran more in the second half. In other words he got to 20 carries in most of those games because we were ahead and he got more carries because of it. That is a fact and you are making it sound like we gained the lead on each magical 20th carry.
 

plasticman

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LOL, cherry pick much?

Who said anything about YPC? You are the one bringing up that stupid 20 carries equals a win nonsense. Percy clearly pointed out that when we were ahead...usually through the passing game...we ran more in the second half. In other words he got to 20 carries in most of those games because we were ahead and he got more carries because of it. That is a fact and you are making it sound like we gained the lead on each magical 20th carry.

Nope...

If Murray got 20 carries because the Cowboys were winning instead of the Cowboys winning because Murray for 20 carries then wouldn't that be true of all NFL RB's?

Well, wouldn't it?

From 2011 to 2013 there were 16 RB's with at least ten games in which they carried the ball at least 20 times.

Want to guess how many went undefeated when that occured?

One.
 

percyhoward

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If Murray got 20 carries because the Cowboys were winning instead of the Cowboys winning because Murray for 20 carries then wouldn't that be true of all NFL RB's?
It would, and it is.

Total Rushing Attempts, 2011-13
winning team 31.2
losing team 23.1


Attempts in 1st half
winning team 13.7
losing team 12.8


Attempts in 2nd half
winning team 17.5
losing team 10.3
 
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