What's Our Window?

[rcaldw]

This is always a difficult one to answer, but I thought it would be interesting to get some of your opinions on this.

What made me think about this was the possibility that someone mentioned of us winning 1 playoff game and then being done. Would we be satisfied? They asked. Someone else said we would be right back at 2007.

So, here is my question for you. How many years does this current core of players have to get a Super Bowl accomplished? If we just get 1 playoff win this year, does that window argue for keeping Wade and trying not to blow it up too much? Or, does that window argue for trying to get someone else (assuming that scenario), and getting to the big game while there is time?

I think we are a fairly young team at most positions, so that may argue for a larger window, though Romo turns 30 next season.

Your opinion?

 

[SibannacRex]

The only way Wade stays is if we win a playoff game. Therefore...

* If we get to at least the NFC championship game, Wade stays.

* If we get to the divisional round (after winning the WC game) and we play well, Wade stays

* If we win a WC game, then get blown out in the divisional round, I think there is a 75% chance Wade will be fired


Anything less than a WC game win, Wade will be fired.

Some people might say that if we win the division, get a home game in the playoffs, he is safe. I disagree, an NFC east crown means we get a home game in the WC round (at a minimum). If we lose that game, Wade will be fired.

 

[DEZBRYANT x88x]

nevermind.

 

[rcaldw]

The only way Wade stays is if we win a playoff game. Therefore...

* If we get to at least the NFC championship game, Wade stays.

* If we get to the divisional round (after winning the WC game) and we play well, Wade stays

* If we win a WC game, then get blown out in the divisional round, I think there is a 75% chance Wade will be fired


Anything less than a WC game win, Wade will be fired.

Some people might say that if we win the division, get a home game in the playoffs, he is safe. I disagree, an NFC east crown means we get a home game in the WC round (at a minimum). If we lose that game, Wade will be fired.

I don't disagree with you on any of this that I can tell, but what about the main part of my question.... how many years do you think our current cast of core players (Romo, Witten, Dware, etc.), have before our window of championship opportunity closes? I know it is just a guess on all or our part, but Jerry has to be thinking that way, at least a bit, and I think it will figure into his plans with Wade one way or another.

 

[rcaldw]

I'll offer my opinion. I think we have until 2013 and then Jerry will have to start thinking about filling some major spots on the roster. I think we all underestimate how much we take for granted on this team right now.

QB spot - Solved
TE spot - Solved
RB spot - Solved (and thankfully we are very young at this spot)
DL - I think we are very strong here


etc.

But in 4 years
QB - Romo -33 years old
TE - Witten - 31
Dware - 31

I think by 2013 Jerry will have to be thinking replacements (at least getting them ready), and that means (if I was right) that we have about a 5 year window INCLUDING this season.

 

[SibannacRex]

I don't disagree with you on any of this that I can tell, but what about the main part of my question.... how many years do you think our current cast of core players (Romo, Witten, Dware, etc.), have before our window of championship opportunity closes? I know it is just a guess on all or our part, but Jerry has to be thinking that way, at least a bit, and I think it will figure into his plans with Wade one way or another.

Forgot to address this part in my initial post- but I think as long as Romo is healthy, we will always have a chance at a Super Bowl (ala Peyton).

But with the core of skill players, Austin, Romo, Felix, Ware, Jenkins, Spencer, etc, I think we have a good 3-4 years after this year.

If we draft well and fill in gaps where needed, and as long as Romo is healthy, I think we have a good 6 years to ride this wave. A good QB goes a long way, just look at the Colts, Saints, Chargers, Pats, and even the Vikings with Favre. The key is to draft well and keep your good players.

 

[RainMan]

I think this team has another four legitimate years to be considered in its prime. The skill position guys -- Austin, Felix, Choice, Roy -- will just be turning 30 by then. Witten won't be much over 30. Romo's the oldest, but he has the least wear and tear. Compare 29-year-old Romo to the 29-year-old Aikman, who had already won three Super Bowls at this age yet quickly spiraled downward because of the beatings he took over the years.

Defensively, we mostly fall in this window as well. Ware, Ratliff, Jenkins, James, Spencer, Scandrick are all young.

Brooking, Newman and Flozell are really the only older players we rely on.

 

[rcaldw]

I think this team has another four legitimate years to be considered in its prime. The skill position guys -- Austin, Felix, Choice, Roy -- will just be turning 30 by then. Witten won't be much over 30. Romo's the oldest, but he has the least wear and tear. Compare 29-year-old Romo to the 29-year-old Aikman, who had already won three Super Bowls at this age yet quickly spiraled downward because of the beatings he took over the years.

Defensively, we mostly fall in this window as well. Ware, Ratliff, Jenkins, James, Spencer, Scandrick are all young.

Brooking, Newman and Flozell are really the only older players we rely on.

I agree with you. Now, if you are the Owner/GM, does a 4-5 year window, if you end up with 1 playoff win this year, make you want to keep the head coach and try to build on that (continuity) or does it make you want to bring in someone else (jump start what you have)?

We have seen it happen both ways.

Cowher stayed in place for a long time and eventually got it done.
Gruden jump started the Buccaneers after Dungy

 

[RainMan]

The only way Wade stays is if we win a playoff game. Therefore...

* If we get to at least the NFC championship game, Wade stays.

* If we get to the divisional round (after winning the WC game) and we play well, Wade stays

* If we win a WC game, then get blown out in the divisional round, I think there is a 75% chance Wade will be fired


Anything less than a WC game win, Wade will be fired.

Some people might say that if we win the division, get a home game in the playoffs, he is safe. I disagree, an NFC east crown means we get a home game in the WC round (at a minimum). If we lose that game, Wade will be fired.

I was fuming when we decided to keep Wade this offseason, but I have since come to believe that Jerry was dumb-like-a-fox smart. Barring a complete collapse over the next two games, I think Wade is back -- even if we don't win a playoff game.

Look, I think Jerry swallowed his ego and changed his approach more than we thought by what he did this offseason. He took what appeared to be a puppet in Wade and gave him Parcellsian say over personnel and the coaching staff. In come Friends of Wade in Brooking, Olshansky and DeCamillis, plus a Friends of Wade cousin in Sensabaugh. Out go the Jerry projects -- Owens, Pacman and Tank -- whom Jerry hoped would debunk the chemistry theory and work.

In doing that, Jerry fully entrenched this team in Wade's hands. This isn't, IMO, a team that necessarily be easily taken over by someone else without any hiccups. There will be a learning curve, perhaps severe.

This defense is all Wade. We saw what some of these same players looked like under Zimmer and Parcells. We see what the Giants now look like without Spags. Replacing Phillips' defensive prowess won't be easy.

And unless we promote Garrett to head coach -- which is a scenario that baffles me (if we want a change in direction, change the direction; don't hire someone off what you're calling a failed staff IMO) -- our offense could go in an entirely new direction.

Entering the season, I didn't necessarily think Wade was handed a Super Bowl team. I thought he was handed a borderline playoff contender without the explosiveness T.O. brought. Wade has delivered us that, and a little more already.

If we happen to be outplayed in the playoffs by, gulp, a better team, I don't necessarily find that to be a fireable offense. Now, if we see a repeat of 44-6, yeah, it's time for Wade to go. But if we look like we belong -- win or lose -- I think Wade has deserved another year and beyond.

Just my two cents. I've bagged on Wade all offseason and many a time throughout the year, but in the end I think he delivered a fine season. The team believes in him and, somehow, he has this franchise headed in the right direction.

Admittedly, I thought that was impossible.

 

[SibannacRex]

I was fuming when we decided to keep Wade this offseason, but I have since come to believe that Jerry was dumb-like-a-fox smart. Barring a complete collapse over the next two games, I think Wade is back -- even if we don't win a playoff game.

Look, I think Jerry swallowed his ego and changed his approach more than we thought by what he did this offseason. He took what appeared to be a puppet in Wade and gave him Parcellsian say over personnel and the coaching staff. In come Friends of Wade in Brooking, Olshansky and DeCamillis, plus a Friends of Wade cousin in Sensabaugh. Out go the Jerry projects -- Owens, Pacman and Tank -- whom Jerry hoped would debunk the chemistry theory and work.

In doing that, Jerry fully entrenched this team in Wade's hands. This isn't, IMO, a team that necessarily be easily taken over by someone else without any hiccups. There will be a learning curve, perhaps severe.

This defense is all Wade. We saw what some of these same players looked like under Zimmer and Parcells. We see what the Giants now look like without Spags. Replacing Phillips' defensive prowess won't be easy.

And unless we promote Garrett to head coach -- which is a scenario that baffles me (if we want a change in direction, change the direction; don't hire someone off what you're calling a failed staff IMO) -- our offense could go in an entirely new direction.

Entering the season, I didn't necessarily think Wade was handed a Super Bowl team. I thought he was handed a borderline playoff contender without the explosiveness T.O. brought. Wade has delivered us that, and a little more already.

If we happen to be outplayed in the playoffs by, gulp, a better team, I don't necessarily find that to be a fireable offense. Now, if we see a repeat of 44-6, yeah, it's time for Wade to go. But if we look like we belong -- win or lose -- I think Wade has deserved another year and beyond.

Just my two cents. I've bagged on Wade all offseason and many a time throughout the year, but in the end I think he delivered a fine season. The team believes in him and, somehow, he has this franchise headed in the right direction.

Admittedly, I thought that was impossible.

I agree with you about how Wade has taken control of this team and put his stamp on it. HOWEVER, do you really believe that if one of the following happens, Wade will still be the coach:

* We lose to Philly, then lose in the WC game to whomever
* We beat Philly, then lose at home in either the WC game or the divisional round

To me, if either of those scenarios happen, I think Wade is gone. I wouldn't agree with it, but I think he'd be out.

 

[RainMan]

I agree with you. Now, if you are the Owner/GM, does a 4-5 year window, if you end up with 1 playoff win this year, make you want to keep the head coach and try to build on that (continuity) or does it make you want to bring in someone else (jump start what you have)?

We have seen it happen both ways.

Cowher stayed in place for a long time and eventually got it done.
Grudem jump started the Buccaneers after Dungy

I didn't see your post before replying above, but I think that retort pretty much covers how I feel.

If our team looks like it doesn't belong over the next two games, I'm all for firing Wade and hiring Gruden, or someone of his ilk. If we play well but happen to fall a little short, I think Wade has earned another shot.

I hate staying status quo and accepting mediocrity. By no means do I want the Quincy Carter of head coaches. But I think Wade is showing he's much more than a 72-QB-rating type of a coach. He's among the top defensive minds in the league, and has like the second-best winning percentage of head coaches during his time here. Yeah, he hasn't gotten it done on the biggest of stages, but I'm starting to think it's more of a matter if "when" as opposed to "if" with Wade.

Again, I never thought I'd say that. I thought he was a dunce. But look at Norv out in San Diego, and how he's doing despite everyone thinking he was a craptastic head coach. I think Wade is starting to have that kind of effect as the head man here.

 

[rcaldw]

I was fuming when we decided to keep Wade this offseason, but I have since come to believe that Jerry was dumb-like-a-fox smart. Barring a complete collapse over the next two games, I think Wade is back -- even if we don't win a playoff game.

Look, I think Jerry swallowed his ego and changed his approach more than we thought by what he did this offseason. He took what appeared to be a puppet in Wade and gave him Parcellsian say over personnel and the coaching staff. In come Friends of Wade in Brooking, Olshansky and DeCamillis, plus a Friends of Wade cousin in Sensabaugh. Out go the Jerry projects -- Owens, Pacman and Tank -- whom Jerry hoped would debunk the chemistry theory and work.

In doing that, Jerry fully entrenched this team in Wade's hands. This isn't, IMO, a team that necessarily be easily taken over by someone else without any hiccups. There will be a learning curve, perhaps severe.

This defense is all Wade. We saw what some of these same players looked like under Zimmer and Parcells. We see what the Giants now look like without Spags. Replacing Phillips' defensive prowess won't be easy.

And unless we promote Garrett to head coach -- which is a scenario that baffles me (if we want a change in direction, change the direction; don't hire someone off what you're calling a failed staff IMO) -- our offense could go in an entirely new direction.

Entering the season, I didn't necessarily think Wade was handed a Super Bowl team. I thought he was handed a borderline playoff contender without the explosiveness T.O. brought. Wade has delivered us that, and a little more already.

If we happen to be outplayed in the playoffs by, gulp, a better team, I don't necessarily find that to be a fireable offense. Now, if we see a repeat of 44-6, yeah, it's time for Wade to go. But if we look like we belong -- win or lose -- I think Wade has deserved another year and beyond.

Just my two cents. I've bagged on Wade all offseason and many a time throughout the year, but in the end I think he delivered a fine season. The team believes in him and, somehow, he has this franchise headed in the right direction.

Admittedly, I thought that was impossible.

Wow, very interesting and thoughtful take. And, though I'm not a Wade fan, I might just agree with you. I hadn't thought about Jerry making it more of Wade's team, but you might be right.

I do think, however, that one reason Jerry might have done that is to basically put the ball in Wade's court.

i.e., if you fail, it will be on you completely.

So, I guess the only thing left to determine is whether Wade succeeds in Jerry's eyes. And, if you are right about how difficult it might be for someone else to take it over, whether we can afford a change, even if there is someone better out there.

 

[RainMan]

I agree with you about how Wade has taken control of this team and put his stamp on it. HOWEVER, do you really believe that if one of the following happens, Wade will still be the coach:

* We lose to Philly, then lose in the WC game to whomever
* We beat Philly, then lose at home in either the WC game or the divisional round

To me, if either of those scenarios happen, I think Wade is gone. I wouldn't agree with it, but I think he'd be out.

Jerry's recent comments lend me to believe that he's inclined to keep Wade and will get rid of him only if something catastrophic happens. If we fall in the wild-card round in a hard-fought, 20-17 ball game where there weren't any catastrophic, horrific-coaching moments, I think Wade is safe. I really do.

 

[RainMan]

Wow, very interesting and thoughtful take. And, though I'm not a Wade fan, I might just agree with you. I hadn't thought about Jerry making it more of Wade's team, but you might be right.

I do think, however, that one reason Jerry might have done that is to basically put the ball in Wade's court.

i.e., if you fail, it will be on you completely.

So, I guess the only thing left to determine is whether Wade succeeds in Jerry's eyes. And, if you are right about how difficult it might be for someone else to take it over, whether we can afford a change, even if there is someone better out there.

Thanks for the kind words, man. Yeah, this is something I've really been grappling with lately as a fan -- to Wade, or not to Wade? I've long mocked him among friends, but I really do think it's time we give him his due -- again, barring a 44-6-like finish.

You do raise an interesting point about Jerry putting everything on Wade and leaving this all on him. If that's the case and Jerry isn't satisfied with what happens, yeah, he very well could be fired.

I guess my ultimate reasoning for my thought process is based on how I answer this question: Do I like where this franchise is headed right now? Resoundingly, I answer yes. Now, I'll certainly feel less confident if we lose the next two games, but again, I think we need to be prudent not to make a knee-jerk reaction here. And if the season sours, firing Wade might not be knee jerk. But then, based on how we're playing right now, losing the next two games doesn't seem likely. We'll certainly see.

One last point to build onto my rationale behind "liking" where the team is headed. I really like a number of coaches on this staff. I believe DeCamillis and John Garrett have done terrific jobs, as has Sherman. Garrett is up and down with me, but seems to have really found a rhythm of late as a play caller. Campo is doing a nice job with the secondary. From top to bottom, I have actually kind of started to like this coaching staff. I don't know that I want to see them all dismissed.

And by no means if we hire a new coach would I want to see him forcefed an assistant here or there.

All in all, I think we have steadily become a franchise that has a foundation in place -- from the owner, to the GM, to the coach to the QB. I don't know that I want to go all Commander on everything and risk tossing the progress out the window for a sexy, big-name hire who could fizzle.

 

[percyhoward]

I was fuming when we decided to keep Wade this offseason, but I have since come to believe that Jerry was dumb-like-a-fox smart. Barring a complete collapse over the next two games, I think Wade is back -- even if we don't win a playoff game.

Look, I think Jerry swallowed his ego and changed his approach more than we thought by what he did this offseason. He took what appeared to be a puppet in Wade and gave him Parcellsian say over personnel and the coaching staff. In come Friends of Wade in Brooking, Olshansky and DeCamillis, plus a Friends of Wade cousin in Sensabaugh. Out go the Jerry projects -- Owens, Pacman and Tank -- whom Jerry hoped would debunk the chemistry theory and work.

In doing that, Jerry fully entrenched this team in Wade's hands. This isn't, IMO, a team that necessarily be easily taken over by someone else without any hiccups. There will be a learning curve, perhaps severe.

This defense is all Wade. We saw what some of these same players looked like under Zimmer and Parcells. We see what the Giants now look like without Spags. Replacing Phillips' defensive prowess won't be easy.

And unless we promote Garrett to head coach -- which is a scenario that baffles me (if we want a change in direction, change the direction; don't hire someone off what you're calling a failed staff IMO) -- our offense could go in an entirely new direction.

Entering the season, I didn't necessarily think Wade was handed a Super Bowl team. I thought he was handed a borderline playoff contender without the explosiveness T.O. brought. Wade has delivered us that, and a little more already.

If we happen to be outplayed in the playoffs by, gulp, a better team, I don't necessarily find that to be a fireable offense. Now, if we see a repeat of 44-6, yeah, it's time for Wade to go. But if we look like we belong -- win or lose -- I think Wade has deserved another year and beyond.

Just my two cents. I've bagged on Wade all offseason and many a time throughout the year, but in the end I think he delivered a fine season. The team believes in him and, somehow, he has this franchise headed in the right direction.

Admittedly, I thought that was impossible.

Great post. I think the leadership that has emerged among the players has made this a team that is more conducive to Wade's style. And that leadership infusion wasn't just spontaneous--Wade was the one who brought Brooking here, so he knew what he was going for. What this team has been able to accomplish this season shows me that people are listening to each other in this organization. I hadn't felt that way before. This group of players isn't going to suffer another 44-6. Just isn't gonna happen.

 

[rcaldw]

Thanks for the kind words, man. Yeah, this is something I've really been grappling with lately as a fan -- to Wade, or not to Wade? I've long mocked him among friends, but I really do think it's time we give him his due -- again, barring a 44-6-like finish.

You do raise an interesting point about Jerry putting everything on Wade and leaving this all on him. If that's the case and Jerry isn't satisfied with what happens, yeah, he very well could be fired.

I guess my ultimate reasoning for my thought process is based on how I answer this question: Do I like where this franchise is headed right now? Resoundingly, I answer yes. Now, I'll certainly feel less confident if we lose the next two games, but again, I think we need to be prudent not to make a knee-jerk reaction here. And if the season sours, firing Wade might not be knee jerk. But then, based on how we're playing right now, losing the next two games doesn't seem likely. We'll certainly see.

One last point to build onto my rationale behind "liking" where the team is headed. I really like a number of coaches on this staff. I believe DeCamillis and John Garrett have done terrific jobs, as has Sherman. Garrett is up and down with me, but seems to have really found a rhythm of late as a play caller. Campo is doing a nice job with the secondary. From top to bottom, I have actually kind of started to like this coaching staff. I don't know that I want to see them all dismissed.

And by no means if we hire a new coach would I want to see him forcefed an assistant here or there.

All in all, I think we have steadily become a franchise that has a foundation in place -- from the owner, to the GM, to the coach to the QB. I don't know that I want to go all Commander on everything and risk tossing the progress out the window for a sexy, big-name hire who could fizzle.

Good thoughts, all of them. I personally like Jason Garrett. I think he gets a lot of criticism that isn't fair. I don't know that we retain him, though, as I wouldn't be surprised, especially if we stay hot, to see him get another opportunity as a HC.

 

[yimyammer]

I think if you have a good QB, better than average coaching and good talent evaluation and development, your window can last years and years in the league as it's currently structured.

In our case, I think our window will be most defined by the length of Romos career.

When it comes to coaching, I don't know if we're better or worse than average. The guys we have aren't idiots (although Wade can sure sound like one at times), they want to win, they have pride & experience and they're competitive, so I do believe we talent in that department. I'm just not sure how well we stack up against the better teams in the league.

When it comes to talent evaluation and player development, I look at Romo, Miles, Choice, Oggletree, Spencer, Jenkins and see good development and talent evaluation.

Then I look at Roy Williams, what we gave up and his contract as well as Hamlin and Barbers contract and TO's contract that we had to eat this year and think, what the hell? WHo drove that decision? Did the scouts completely miss on Roy? Was there even any serious evaluation of Roy?

The first guys I mentioned seem like the result of good scouting and coaches whereas the latter have the feel of someone reaching out of fear which I blame Jerry for. I realize I can't prove this, but they seem like the moves he made when no one was around to try and reign him in so that's what I currently believe drove those decisions.

I think Jerry has gotten better than he was in 1994, but I think he still can't help himself and has to muck up the process, so I think he is always a wild card that can hinder the teams success unless he gets really lucky with some of his wildcatting moves. Given his propensity to have to control everything or at least give the appearance of controlling everything, we may be better off keeping all of our coaches in place as I am not sure what coach would offer a better alternative that would be willing to come here.

In fact, I think Jerry feels Wade has already done enough to return again next year and the only thing I think that would prevent that is another Philly type melt down in our last two games. So my bet is Phillips will be back again next year and in all likelihood Garrett as well.

Given the way Jerry does things, I think this may actually give us the best chance of success and I do think there is something to be said for continuity and giving coaches a chance to improve like we give players a chance to improve. If Garrett can stay here and continue to learn and be groomed into the next coach and if Wade can find a way to get over his past playoff failures, we might finally see some stability around here and hopefully consistently competitive teams in most years.

The reality is we all should really want this team to succeed this year above perhaps any other year in recent history because someone in the building convinced Jerry that the way things were being done and keeping certain players were hindering the teams ability to succeed (thus the release of TO, etc).

Winning this year as a team without the high priced and or risky free agents will prove to Jerry that the tough decisions he made last year were the right course of action. My hope is that he will stay on that course, continue to emphasize the team, player development and building the team from the draft. Maybe the beating he's taking on the Roy trade will convince him once and for all that these are not the kinds of risks you can afford to take if you want to be a consistently competitive team that has a chance of winning the Super Bowl.

I'm still not a Jerry fan, but I'm trying to find some positives and I think he just might be doing a few things differently and for the better, so I want him to be rewarded for it so he'll continue on that path.

 

[Future]

I'll offer my opinion. I think we have until 2013 and then Jerry will have to start thinking about filling some major spots on the roster. I think we all underestimate how much we take for granted on this team right now.

QB spot - Solved
TE spot - Solved
RB spot - Solved (and thankfully we are very young at this spot)
DL - I think we are very strong here


etc.

But in 4 years
QB - Romo -33 years old
TE - Witten - 31
Dware - 31

I think by 2013 Jerry will have to be thinking replacements (at least getting them ready), and that means (if I was right) that we have about a 5 year window INCLUDING this season.

I think 4 years is a good start, but these core players seem like the types that will play at a high level until they are 33/4. I'd say 5-6 year window.

 

[mmohican29]

Great OP. I've been singing this song all season. Wade is the HC of the Dallas Cowboys and is IMO, a playoff victory away from securing that role for at least another season, with Garrett ready to take over the ballclub at some point.

This team is clearly headed in the right direction and shows a competitive stability that I really think will reveal itself in the Cowboys play in the finale vs Philadelphia and on into the postseason.

I still think we're a bit of a longshot for the SB, but this team has pieces of the puzzle in place to be a very dangerous outfit for more than just this season.

Let's think twice before we overreact to a heartbreaking loss if it should occur in a divisional playoff or conference championship game, because it would be a shame to discredit Wade and the staff for piecing together a very enjoyable season with some good moments thus far, and I think:

More coming.

 

[ZeroClub]

The window is fairly large, I think. Franchise QB is a key and Romo is probably good for another half dozen seasons or so. Ware is 27.

Age is becoming an issue on the OL, of course, but with a little luck the team should be able to rebuild the OL over the next few years without losing much momentum.

I don't think "the window" affects Wade's future all that much. Think of what happened the last two times Jerry changed coaches - both of the last two hires (Parcells and Wade) took the team to the playoffs in Year 1.