Gryphon
Merge Ahead
- Messages
- 3,407
- Reaction score
- 31
Thought I would post this from ESPN's Insider
Which quarterback was the NFL's best deep passer in 2005? There are many ways to approach this question, but I've chosen to focus on three main criteria.
The first is a quarterback's yards per attempt. As I have detailed in previous articles, the yards-per-attempt metric is good because it tends to put a quarterback's productivity in perspective. Here are the top 10 quarterbacks in deep yards per attempt from 2005, with a minimum of 150 total passes needed to qualify:
1. Kelly Holcomb -- 15.6
2. Kurt Warner -- 15.6
3. Ben Roethlisberger -- 15.2
4. Trent Green -- 15.0
5. Chris Simms -- 14.9
6. Jamie Martin -- 14.7
7. Carson Palmer -- 14.4
8. Brian Griese -- 14.2
9. Peyton Manning -- 13.2
10. Mark Brunell -- 12.9
There are a few surprises on this list, but they are due mostly to statistical anomalies. Kelly Holcomb, Chris Simms, Jamie Martin and Brian Griese all had 20 or fewer deep pass attempts, or less than half the number of deep passes thrown by every other quarterback on this list. In the future, this type of wide attempt variance might lead me to place minimum attempt qualifying numbers on each of the route depth levels.
The second criterion I use is success percentage. Success percentage is the most effective single metric in measuring a quarterback's efficiency. The formula for determining the success percentage of a quarterback is quite simple. Just add the quarterback's completions and passing plays that resulted in positive penalties (i.e., pass interference, defensive holding, illegal contact, etc.), and divide that number by the total number of pass attempts. The total number of pass attempts is the combination of incomplete passes and plays that resulted in negative penalties (i.e. offensive pass interference).
Here are the top 10 quarterbacks in deep pass success percentage:
1. Drew Brees -- 52.2%
2. Kurt Warner -- 51.4%
3. Ben Roethlisberger -- 51.0%
4. Jamie Martin -- 45.0%
5. Trent Green -- 44.4%
6. Carson Palmer -- 44.3%
7. Matt Hasselbeck -- 43.8%
8. Kelly Holcomb -- 42.9%
9. Chris Simms -- 42.9%
10. Marc Bulger -- 42.0%
The method I am using this year to generate the final player grades is a weighted yards-per-attempt system that factors yards per attempt by success percentage. This works well for most player positions, but a quarterback's decision-making is so vital to his success that this has to be included, as well.
Finally, I use the bad-decision metric to measure a quarterback's decision-making skills. This system was quite subjective in 2004, so I made some revisions this past season in an effort to reduce the subjectivity.
A quarterback was assigned a bad decision when he made a mistake with the ball that could have led to a turnover. If the mistake didn't lead to a turnover (i.e., a dropped interception, a recovered fumble, etc.), it was given only one point. If the mistake led to a turnover, it was given two mistake points and was also subject to a graduating scale of points based on how damaging the turnover was.
For example, if the turnover killed a scoring drive or put the opponent in scoring position, it was given a third point. I will place a full list of the mistake and point assignments in "Scientific Football 2006" (available for preorder now at www.TheFootballScientist.com).
Bad-decision rankings are based on a percentage basis. I take the number of bad-decision points a quarterback generated and divide it by the total number of attempts. Here are the top 10 quarterbacks in bad decision percentage:
1. Brooks Bollinger -- 0.0
2. Chris Simms -- 0.0
3. Donovan McNabb -- 2.3
4. J.P. Losman -- 3.1
5. Tom Brady -- 3.9
6. David Garrard -- 4.2
7. Joey Harrington -- 4.7
8. Matt Hasselbeck -- 4.7
9. Mark Brunell -- 5.5
10. Marc Bulger -- 6.0
I believe the best way to combine all three of these criteria is to take the yards per attempt and factor it by the success percentage and bad-decision percentage. Let's say a quarterback averaged 10 yards per attempt and had a 50 percent success percentage and a 10 percent bad-decision percentage. Multiplying the 10 yards per attempt by the 50 percent gives you five yards.
To properly factor in the bad-decision percentage, you have to reduce the five yards by 10 percent. This will mean a final total of 4.5 yards.
Using this method, here are the top 10 deep passers from 2005:
1. Kurt Warner -- 7.2
2. Drew Brees -- 6.3
3. Chris Simms -- 6.2
4. Trent Green -- 6.2
5. Ben Roethlisberger -- 5.7
6. Matt Hasselbeck -- 5.5
7. Jamie Martin -- 5.4
8. Carson Palmer -- 5.3
9. Kelly Holcomb -- 5.2
10. Mark Brunell -- 5.2
Warner threw 36 deep passes, which accounted for only 9 percent of his total passes. That percentage is so low that only two other passers had a lower percentage. This chart shows that despite this scarcity of attempts, Warner was nearly one yard per attempt better than any other quarterback in deep passing. If Edgerrin James can provide the Cardinals with a running game, Denny Green may just give Warner the green light to pass deep even more often.
Which quarterback was the NFL's best deep passer in 2005? There are many ways to approach this question, but I've chosen to focus on three main criteria.
The first is a quarterback's yards per attempt. As I have detailed in previous articles, the yards-per-attempt metric is good because it tends to put a quarterback's productivity in perspective. Here are the top 10 quarterbacks in deep yards per attempt from 2005, with a minimum of 150 total passes needed to qualify:
1. Kelly Holcomb -- 15.6
2. Kurt Warner -- 15.6
3. Ben Roethlisberger -- 15.2
4. Trent Green -- 15.0
5. Chris Simms -- 14.9
6. Jamie Martin -- 14.7
7. Carson Palmer -- 14.4
8. Brian Griese -- 14.2
9. Peyton Manning -- 13.2
10. Mark Brunell -- 12.9
There are a few surprises on this list, but they are due mostly to statistical anomalies. Kelly Holcomb, Chris Simms, Jamie Martin and Brian Griese all had 20 or fewer deep pass attempts, or less than half the number of deep passes thrown by every other quarterback on this list. In the future, this type of wide attempt variance might lead me to place minimum attempt qualifying numbers on each of the route depth levels.
The second criterion I use is success percentage. Success percentage is the most effective single metric in measuring a quarterback's efficiency. The formula for determining the success percentage of a quarterback is quite simple. Just add the quarterback's completions and passing plays that resulted in positive penalties (i.e., pass interference, defensive holding, illegal contact, etc.), and divide that number by the total number of pass attempts. The total number of pass attempts is the combination of incomplete passes and plays that resulted in negative penalties (i.e. offensive pass interference).
Here are the top 10 quarterbacks in deep pass success percentage:
1. Drew Brees -- 52.2%
2. Kurt Warner -- 51.4%
3. Ben Roethlisberger -- 51.0%
4. Jamie Martin -- 45.0%
5. Trent Green -- 44.4%
6. Carson Palmer -- 44.3%
7. Matt Hasselbeck -- 43.8%
8. Kelly Holcomb -- 42.9%
9. Chris Simms -- 42.9%
10. Marc Bulger -- 42.0%
The method I am using this year to generate the final player grades is a weighted yards-per-attempt system that factors yards per attempt by success percentage. This works well for most player positions, but a quarterback's decision-making is so vital to his success that this has to be included, as well.
Finally, I use the bad-decision metric to measure a quarterback's decision-making skills. This system was quite subjective in 2004, so I made some revisions this past season in an effort to reduce the subjectivity.
A quarterback was assigned a bad decision when he made a mistake with the ball that could have led to a turnover. If the mistake didn't lead to a turnover (i.e., a dropped interception, a recovered fumble, etc.), it was given only one point. If the mistake led to a turnover, it was given two mistake points and was also subject to a graduating scale of points based on how damaging the turnover was.
For example, if the turnover killed a scoring drive or put the opponent in scoring position, it was given a third point. I will place a full list of the mistake and point assignments in "Scientific Football 2006" (available for preorder now at www.TheFootballScientist.com).
Bad-decision rankings are based on a percentage basis. I take the number of bad-decision points a quarterback generated and divide it by the total number of attempts. Here are the top 10 quarterbacks in bad decision percentage:
1. Brooks Bollinger -- 0.0
2. Chris Simms -- 0.0
3. Donovan McNabb -- 2.3
4. J.P. Losman -- 3.1
5. Tom Brady -- 3.9
6. David Garrard -- 4.2
7. Joey Harrington -- 4.7
8. Matt Hasselbeck -- 4.7
9. Mark Brunell -- 5.5
10. Marc Bulger -- 6.0
I believe the best way to combine all three of these criteria is to take the yards per attempt and factor it by the success percentage and bad-decision percentage. Let's say a quarterback averaged 10 yards per attempt and had a 50 percent success percentage and a 10 percent bad-decision percentage. Multiplying the 10 yards per attempt by the 50 percent gives you five yards.
To properly factor in the bad-decision percentage, you have to reduce the five yards by 10 percent. This will mean a final total of 4.5 yards.
Using this method, here are the top 10 deep passers from 2005:
1. Kurt Warner -- 7.2
2. Drew Brees -- 6.3
3. Chris Simms -- 6.2
4. Trent Green -- 6.2
5. Ben Roethlisberger -- 5.7
6. Matt Hasselbeck -- 5.5
7. Jamie Martin -- 5.4
8. Carson Palmer -- 5.3
9. Kelly Holcomb -- 5.2
10. Mark Brunell -- 5.2
Warner threw 36 deep passes, which accounted for only 9 percent of his total passes. That percentage is so low that only two other passers had a lower percentage. This chart shows that despite this scarcity of attempts, Warner was nearly one yard per attempt better than any other quarterback in deep passing. If Edgerrin James can provide the Cardinals with a running game, Denny Green may just give Warner the green light to pass deep even more often.
