Which Trade-Down Do You Take?

[Leadbelly]

The first half of RD1 goes like this...

HOU Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
TB Khalil Mack, DE/OLB, Buffalo ***trade w. STL
JAX Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida
CLE Jake Matthews, T, Texas A&M
OAK Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
ATL Greg Robinson, T, Auburn
STL Sammie Watkins, WR, Clemson ***trade w. TB
MIN Derek Carr, QB, Fresno St
BUF Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
DET Darqueze Denard, CB, Michigan St
TEN Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA
NYG C J Mosley, LB, Alabama
STL Zach Martin, G, Notre Dame
CHI Aaron Donald, DT, Chicago
PIT Mike Evans, WR, Texas​

MIN shocks the board and takes Derek Carr, a better fit for Norv. Manziel makes it to our pick and several teams are calling (ARI at 1/20, CLE at 1/26, HOU at 2/33) for 1/16 (1000 value).

ARI offers 1/20 (850) and 3/84 (175) for 1/16 (1000).

CLE offers 1/26 (700), 2/35 (550) and 3/83 (175) for 1/16 (1000), 2/47 (430).

HOU offers 2/33 (580), 3/65 (265) and a 2nd in 2015 (200) for 1/16 (1000).

Which trade do you make? Or make the pick at 1/16.

** To determine the HOU 2015 pick, I used an average of HOU draft slot for the last three years, which is 18th overall. As it's a pick next year, the value is discounted 50% of its 2014 value.

 

[DFWJC]

I'd lean towards door #2 because I think we could get two players with 1st round value at 26 and 35...and still add that extra 3rd rounder. Sweet deal.
Plus if things look dicey and they feel they have to move up from 26, they can still pull that off.

 

[xwalker]

The first half of RD1 goes like this...

HOU Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
TB Khalil Mack, DE/OLB, Buffalo ***trade w. STL
JAX Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida
CLE Jake Matthews, T, Texas A&M
OAK Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
ATL Greg Robinson, T, Auburn
STL Sammie Watkins, WR, Clemson ***trade w. TB
MIN Derek Carr, QB, Fresno St
BUF Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
DET Darqueze Denard, CB, Michigan St
TEN Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA
NYG C J Mosley, LB, Alabama
STL Zach Martin, G, Notre Dame
CHI Aaron Donald, DT, Chicago
PIT Mike Evans, WR, Texas​

MIN shocks the board and takes Derek Carr, a better fit for Norv. Manziel makes it to our pick and several teams are calling (ARI at 1/20, CLE at 1/26, HOU at 2/33) for 1/16 (1000 value).

ARI offers 1/20 (850) and 3/84 (175) for 1/16 (1000).

CLE offers 1/26 (700), 2/35 (550) and 3/83 (175) for 1/16 (1000), 2/47 (430).

HOU offers 2/33 (580), 3/65 (265) and a 2nd in 2015 (200) for 1/16 (1000).

Which trade do you make? Or make the pick at 1/16.

** To determine the HOU 2015 pick, I used an average of HOU draft slot for the last three years, which is 18th overall. As it's a pick next year, the value is discounted 50% of its 2014 value.

Trade #1 is fine. You always have the possibility of trading down again from #20.

I would prefer to just get 1-26 and 2-35 for 1-16 straight up.

 

[DBOY3141]

I take Manziel, but if I had to take a trade I would go with Option 2.

 

[ABQcowboyJR]

The Cleveland trade is the one I would take, but like Walker said you can trade down again. In this situation we are taking Johnny Football though. You have both HaHa and Pryor and even Nix. You could sit there and make a pick, which is probably what I would do.

 

[tm1119]

Keep it simple and pick up an extra 3rd while most likely still getting the guy we wanted at 16 anyway.

 

[reddyuta]

I will take manziel and so will jerry.

 

[packpitts]

ARI

 

[kiheikiwi]

Yup, take the ARI deal. Dont want Manziel at all.

 

[Western]

Given the talent level in the first half of the 1st round, if Manziel becomes available at 16, take Manziel.

Given Romo's age and health issues, Dallas would be fortunate in having a potential franchise QB slide to them (the percentages of finding a franchise QB in the 1st round is much higher than getting lucky with a later round selection or free agent pick up).

Absent Dallas tanking the season in 14' & drafting in the top 3 in 2015 (taking either Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, or Brett Hundley), the front office needs to determine whether Manziel at 16 in 2014 is a solid investment as opposed to a unknown draft position in 2015.

If Manziel is graded higher or similar to Mariota, Winston, or Hundley, take Manziel now if available.

Winston may not choose to go pro in 2015 & Mariota or Hundley may suffer a significant injury during upcoming collegiate season.

If Manziel is available at 16, take him and don't look back.

 

[DFWJC]

Given the talent level in the first half of the 1st round, if Manziel becomes available at 16, take Manziel.

Given Romo's age and health issues, Dallas would be fortunate in having a potential franchise QB slide to them (the percentages of finding a franchise QB in the 1st round is much higher than getting lucky with a later round selection or free agent pick up).

Absent Dallas tanking the season in 14' & drafting in the top 3 in 2015 (taking either Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, or Brett Hundley), the front office needs to determine whether Manziel at 16 in 2014 is a solid investment as opposed to a unknown draft position in 2015.

If Manziel is graded higher or similar to Mariota, Winston, or Hundley, take Manziel now if available.

Winston may not choose to go pro in 2015 & Mariota or Hundley may suffer a significant injury during upcoming collegiate season.

If Manziel is available at 16, take him and don't look back.

This would depend on how highly they rank Manziel. The range is fairly large right now. Mayock actually has moved him up to his top QB, while Jaws does not even rate him a 1st round talent.
If they have no player of greater need rated as highly as him if he was there at 16, then yes, they should consider it. No way of knowing that though, so the thread asked about trade downs and did not entertain the option of taking JFB.
Plus, how can you grade a guy right now vs players not coming out for another year? Maybe you add an improvement arc? I assume they would do something.

 

[9darter]

ARI deal.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Arizona. I would never move down 10 picks in the 1st round so I could move up 12 picks in the 2nd and just gain a 3rd. That, to me, would be a terrible trade.

 

[ceerrece]

Take Manziel, definitely; even Bridgewater if he falls.

 

[Leadbelly]

I'd lean towards door #2 because I think we could get two players with 1st round value at 26 and 35...and still add that extra 3rd rounder. Sweet deal.
Plus if things look dicey and they feel they have to move up from 26, they can still pull that off.

This is the way I was leaning as well. We could pick up two starters for the defense and use the extra 3rd to flesh out one of the skill positions. Some combination of Stephon Tuitt, Scott Crichton, ReShede Hageman, Trent Murphy, Kyle Van Noy, Ryan Shazier, Jimmie Ward, Calvin Pryor, or Kyle Fuller (who I think could be great at FS) would be possible.

If we stay at 2/47, I think only Trent Murphy might still be around and the group includes prospects more along the lines of Kareem Martin, Lamarcus Joyner, Will Sutton, Dom Easley, Marcus Smith, Jeremiah Attaochu…a lot of question marks there. Realistically, most of these guys will take a year to acclimate.

 

[Fredd]

I likely take option #1, move down only 4 spots and grab a 3rd

but, if the #2 option was their 1/26 and 2/35 with nothing else involved, I go there
and, if the 3rd option was the 2 & 3 in 2014 AND a first in the 2015 draft instead of the 2nd, then my interest is piqued

 

[AmishCowboy]

I would take the Arizona deal easily

The first half of RD1 goes like this...

HOU Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
TB Khalil Mack, DE/OLB, Buffalo ***trade w. STL
JAX Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida
CLE Jake Matthews, T, Texas A&M
OAK Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
ATL Greg Robinson, T, Auburn
STL Sammie Watkins, WR, Clemson ***trade w. TB
MIN Derek Carr, QB, Fresno St
BUF Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
DET Darqueze Denard, CB, Michigan St
TEN Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA
NYG C J Mosley, LB, Alabama
STL Zach Martin, G, Notre Dame
CHI Aaron Donald, DT, Chicago
PIT Mike Evans, WR, Texas​

MIN shocks the board and takes Derek Carr, a better fit for Norv. Manziel makes it to our pick and several teams are calling (ARI at 1/20, CLE at 1/26, HOU at 2/33) for 1/16 (1000 value).

ARI offers 1/20 (850) and 3/84 (175) for 1/16 (1000).

CLE offers 1/26 (700), 2/35 (550) and 3/83 (175) for 1/16 (1000), 2/47 (430).

HOU offers 2/33 (580), 3/65 (265) and a 2nd in 2015 (200) for 1/16 (1000).

Which trade do you make? Or make the pick at 1/16.

** To determine the HOU 2015 pick, I used an average of HOU draft slot for the last three years, which is 18th overall. As it's a pick next year, the value is discounted 50% of its 2014 value.

I

 

[jnday]

I can't believe the fans that have faith in Jerry with the trade down. He got it right last year, but he still could have got better value for the pick. In the past, trading down hasn't worked so well for this team. I would stay at 16 and get Johnny Football.

 

[Va_BoysFan4 Life]

The first half of RD1 goes like this...

HOU Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
TB Khalil Mack, DE/OLB, Buffalo ***trade w. STL
JAX Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida
CLE Jake Matthews, T, Texas A&M
OAK Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
ATL Greg Robinson, T, Auburn
STL Sammie Watkins, WR, Clemson ***trade w. TB
MIN Derek Carr, QB, Fresno St
BUF Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
DET Darqueze Denard, CB, Michigan St
TEN Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA
NYG C J Mosley, LB, Alabama
STL Zach Martin, G, Notre Dame
CHI Aaron Donald, DT, Chicago
PIT Mike Evans, WR, Texas​

MIN shocks the board and takes Derek Carr, a better fit for Norv. Manziel makes it to our pick and several teams are calling (ARI at 1/20, CLE at 1/26, HOU at 2/33) for 1/16 (1000 value).

ARI offers 1/20 (850) and 3/84 (175) for 1/16 (1000).

CLE offers 1/26 (700), 2/35 (550) and 3/83 (175) for 1/16 (1000), 2/47 (430).

HOU offers 2/33 (580), 3/65 (265) and a 2nd in 2015 (200) for 1/16 (1000).

Which trade do you make? Or make the pick at 1/16.

** To determine the HOU 2015 pick, I used an average of HOU draft slot for the last three years, which is 18th overall. As it's a pick next year, the value is discounted 50% of its 2014 value.

Question
In the Cleveland trade, why would you give up your #47 pick for their #87. IMO, this is a "they need us to get the player they want" trade so I would keep my 2nd. I see that your trying to match value, but if anything I will use my 3rd in this trade.

 

[arglebargle]

I'd go with Arizona. But on any of these deals I'd make 'em throw in a 6th rounder as well, maybe kick in a 7th in return. Not keen on Manziel, so that makes it easier for me. Spend one of those 3rd rounders on a developmental QB if need be. There appear to be a few in that range. There's a lot of decent players in the third round range though.