Who is the Most Clutch Player on the Cowboys?

[DallasEast]

You said this was a Prescott thread....this is correct.

Of course it is correct. I inferred that fact in my initial reply:

I sense something. The umpteenth thread de-evolving into a mess of...

The Fan Forum has been diluted with Prescott-centric threads since 2016. The likelihood that it will turn into a pro Prescott/con Prescott word-fest is extremely likely, which was also inferred in my initial reply.

 

[ItzKelz]

Of course it is correct. I inferred that fact in my initial reply:


The Fan Forum has been diluted with Prescott-centric threads since 2016. The likelihood that it will turn into a pro Prescott/con Prescott word-fest is extremely likely, which was also inferred in my initial reply.

Ummm I did not get that from your initial reply. And then even after that you refused to answer the question because of.....what I perceived as fear lol.

 

[Typhus]

Not trying to change the thread title, no offense OP,, but you already knew the answer to your question..
More interesting would be who is this years up and coming clutch player...
Would love to say Gallup if we were only talking offense, and if this thread was going to curve a bit,, could be good discussion.
So having said that,, its rather vanilla and obvious that Dak has to be the answer, after all, if we don't have Dak as clutch, then this team is going no where, not in this league these days.
Clutch to me is players like Novacek back in the day,, Aikman could always depend on him in critical 3rd down situations.
Some may laugh at me for suggesting Gallup,, but I know that this kid has a very special element to his game, and that is the relationship,, chemistry that he is developing with Dak.
That chemistry is going to shine this season... AB connection.. dang.. I said it here first.
Yes sir,, I will climb out on that limb.. Clutch WR... Michael Gallup.. its coming fellow Cowboys faithful.

 

[erod]

Hmmm. Deion Sanders was not clutch? Ray Lewis was not clutch? They never made big plays in big moments? Only kickers and QBs make big plays in big moments?

No, they were never referred to as "clutch."

That's reserved for quarterbacks, kickers, hitters in baseball, shooters in basketball....

Linebackers and guards don't get that word attached to them.

 

[percyhoward]

Common statics misinterpretation.

Correlation does not mean a metric is good.

The stock market is up more on sunny days than rainy days. Nobody assumes the sun makes stocks go up just as one shouldn't assume a high passer rating means a qb had a good game.

Go back and watch Mariota's perfect passer rating game last year.

That's one game. You criticized Dak's 200+ late-and-close attempts as being too small a sample, then you point to Mariota's one-game sample as if it were proof of something. Over the last three seasons, Mariota ranks 15th in passer rating, 15th in TQBR.

I'm not even saying passer rating is necessarily the better metric. You said it was a "bad metric," so I asked you why those were the top 5 passers over the last three years, and who you'd put in their place. Your avoidance of my question and your subsequent stock market analogy seems to say that you think it's just coincidence that traditional passer rating puts those 5 QB at the top, which itself suggests that you think that they are the top 5.

Both metrics correlate strongly to wins, so they're both good. Neither is perfect.

Regular Season Only 2016-18
ESPN Total QBR
1 Brady 73.5
2 Ryan 71.5
3 Brees 70.0
4 Luck 68.8
5 Prescott 68.4

6 Rodgers 66.4
7 Rthlsbrgr 66.3
8 Rivers 63.3
9 Wentz 63.2
10 Wilson 62.1

11 Cousins 61.5
12 Stafford 61.4
13 Winston 59.9
14 Smith 58.4
15 Mariota 57.8


Traditional Passer Rating
1 Brees 106.4
2 Ryan 105.7
3 Brady 103.5
4 Rodgers 100.3
5 Wilson 98.7

6 Luck 97.5
7 Cousins 97.0
8 Rivers 96.1
9 Prescott 95.9
10 Smith 95.3

11 Rthlsbrgr 94.7
12 Stafford 94.6
13 Wentz 92.4
14 Winston 92.3
15 Mariota 92.1

Beneficiaries of Total QBR
Prescott, Roethlisberger, Wentz

Beneficiaries of Traditional Passer Rating
Wilson, Cousins, Smith

Nobody else moves more than 2 spots.

 

[DallasEast]

Ummm I did not get that from your initial reply. And then even after that you refused to answer the question because of.....what I perceived as fear lol.

Bold> I discerned that was the conversational tool angle you were employing about five replies back.

 

[ItzKelz]

No, they were never referred to as "clutch."

That's reserved for quarterbacks, kickers, hitters in baseball, shooters in basketball....

Linebackers and guards don't get that word attached to them.

So only QBs, Kickers, Hitters in Baseball and Basketball shooters are clutch? In all of sports but specially for our team only our QB and Kicker can be clutch?

 

[Mountaineerfan]

Zach Martin. When was the last time he didn't get the job done.

 

[Tangle_Foot]

I'll let you know once we are able to "shift" gears in the playoffs
When I think of clutch players they've all had playoff success, right or wrong it's an element missing from both team and player resume

 

[erod]

So only QBs, Kickers, Hitters in Baseball and Basketball shooters are clutch? In all of sports but specially for our team only our QB and Kicker can be clutch?

It's just not an expression used for other positions.

 

[percyhoward]

Beneficiaries of Total QBR
Prescott, Roethlisberger, Wentz

Beneficiaries of Traditional Passer Rating
Wilson, Cousins, Smith

Cliff's Notes on why:
The best thing about Total QBR is also the worst thing: it's based on EPA. That means it takes game situation into account, but it also treats any non-pass as a designed QB run. The "game situation" aspect helps mobile QB like Wentz (great on 3rd and long), Prescott (great late in close games), and Ben, who's a little of both.

None of that shows in traditional passer rating, which gives a boost to Garbage Time Cousins and the ever-conservative Smith. On the other hand, Total QBR blames all sacks on the QB, which is what hurt Dak in 2018, and what hurts Wilson for all three years.

According to PFF, 80% of all sacks are the fault of someone other than the QB. An improvement to these two metrics would be a hybrid metric that's EPA-based but that only counts sacks that are the fault of the QB.

 

[Rockport]

Hands down Dak.

 

[ItzKelz]

It's just not an expression used for other positions.

Oh I agree. Part of the reason I made this thread is because of the media only saying that certain positions and players can be clutch. But I am3r one that believe that making a sure tackle just short of a 1st down on 4th down would definitely be clutch.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

That's one game. You criticized Dak's 200+ late-and-close attempts as being too small a sample, then you point to Mariota's one-game sample as if it were proof of something. Over the last three seasons, Mariota ranks 15th in passer rating, 15th in TQBR.

I'm not even saying passer rating is necessarily the better metric. You said it was a "bad metric," so I asked you why those were the top 5 passers over the last three years, and who you'd put in their place. Your avoidance of my question and your subsequent stock market analogy seems to say that you think it's just coincidence that traditional passer rating puts those 5 QB at the top, which itself suggests that you think that they are the top 5.

Both metrics correlate strongly to wins, so they're both good. Neither is perfect.

Regular Season Only 2016-18
ESPN Total QBR
1 Brady 73.5
2 Ryan 71.5
3 Brees 70.0
4 Luck 68.8
5 Prescott 68.4

6 Rodgers 66.4
7 Rthlsbrgr 66.3
8 Rivers 63.3
9 Wentz 63.2
10 Wilson 62.1

11 Cousins 61.5
12 Stafford 61.4
13 Winston 59.9
14 Smith 58.4
15 Mariota 57.8


Traditional Passer Rating
1 Brees 106.4
2 Ryan 105.7
3 Brady 103.5
4 Rodgers 100.3
5 Wilson 98.7

6 Luck 97.5
7 Cousins 97.0
8 Rivers 96.1
9 Prescott 95.9
10 Smith 95.3

11 Rthlsbrgr 94.7
12 Stafford 94.6
13 Wentz 92.4
14 Winston 92.3
15 Mariota 92.1

Beneficiaries of Total QBR
Prescott, Roethlisberger, Wentz

Beneficiaries of Traditional Passer Rating
Wilson, Cousins, Smith

Nobody else moves more than 2 spots.

Yes 200 attempts us a small sample suzr

That's one game. You criticized Dak's 200+ late-and-close attempts as being too small a sample, then you point to Mariota's one-game sample as if it were proof of something. Over the last three seasons, Mariota ranks 15th in passer rating, 15th in TQBR.

I'm not even saying passer rating is necessarily the better metric. You said it was a "bad metric," so I asked you why those were the top 5 passers over the last three years, and who you'd put in their place. Your avoidance of my question and your subsequent stock market analogy seems to say that you think it's just coincidence that traditional passer rating puts those 5 QB at the top, which itself suggests that you think that they are the top 5.

Both metrics correlate strongly to wins, so they're both good. Neither is perfect.

Regular Season Only 2016-18
ESPN Total QBR
1 Brady 73.5
2 Ryan 71.5
3 Brees 70.0
4 Luck 68.8
5 Prescott 68.4

6 Rodgers 66.4
7 Rthlsbrgr 66.3
8 Rivers 63.3
9 Wentz 63.2
10 Wilson 62.1

11 Cousins 61.5
12 Stafford 61.4
13 Winston 59.9
14 Smith 58.4
15 Mariota 57.8


Traditional Passer Rating
1 Brees 106.4
2 Ryan 105.7
3 Brady 103.5
4 Rodgers 100.3
5 Wilson 98.7

6 Luck 97.5
7 Cousins 97.0
8 Rivers 96.1
9 Prescott 95.9
10 Smith 95.3

11 Rthlsbrgr 94.7
12 Stafford 94.6
13 Wentz 92.4
14 Winston 92.3
15 Mariota 92.1

Beneficiaries of Total QBR
Prescott, Roethlisberger, Wentz

Beneficiaries of Traditional Passer Rating
Wilson, Cousins, Smith

Nobody else moves more than 2 spots.

Dak has nearly 1500 passes in his regular season career. Looking at 14% of those is a small sample size. Yes, I stand by it.

Especially to prove a premise...is so and so "clutch"....that is at best overrated and at worst a myth.

And I do believe passer rating is a bad metric. It is trying to objectively measure the worth/performance of a qb and omits many of the things a qb is responsible for and/or ways in which they impact the game. The fact it is also situation agnostic and doesn't try and separate performance of qb and wr and other players surrounding him is what makes it bad. What is worse is people use it as gospel.

 

[Pantone282C]

When you're asking about clutch on just one team, you simply have to go to who plays consistently well in crunch time. The question wasn't who is the most clutch QB in the NFL, that's a different conversation.

Fredsy, DLaw, Zach Martin and LP. Those are prolly the 4 most clutch players on this team. LVE might be, but hard to judge after just one year.

Good list. Pretty close to what I was thinking. I like Amari and our wolf pack LBers, but too soon to judge overall.

 

[Pantone282C]

If Dak's not clutch yet, here's hoping he will be by the time the upcoming season is in the books.
It would undoubtedly be a major blessing if he manages to minimize his inconsistencies.

He has plenty of clutch moments, but needs to be there more consistently.

 

[cowboyec]

offense...Dak,Witt,Tyron,Martin,Frederick,COOOOOOP,Zeke.
defense...Van Jaylon,DLaw,Byron,Awuzie.

 

[Hadenough]

Current players.....My vote is for Dak. Say you?

The long snapper!

 

[percyhoward]

Yes 200 attempts us a small sample suzr

Dak has nearly 1500 passes in his regular season career. Looking at 14% of those is a small sample size. Yes, I stand by it.

Especially to prove a premise...is so and so "clutch"....that is at best overrated and at worst a myth.

And I do believe passer rating is a bad metric. It is trying to objectively measure the worth/performance of a qb and omits many of the things a qb is responsible for and/or ways in which they impact the game. The fact it is also situation agnostic and doesn't try and separate performance of qb and wr and other players surrounding him is what makes it bad. What is worse is people use it as gospel.

What's odd is that you're adamant that certain metrics and sample sizes are misleading, and yet you have no opinion about which QB are being cheated out of the top 5 or top 10 by these unfair sample sizes and unfair metrics, let alone how. You just go strangely quiet on both topics, and instead stick to generalities.

If I thought a certain metric was severely flawed, I'd give specific examples of QB who benefit unfairly, and then go into descriptions of how they benefit. I'd also list the QB whom the metric undervalued, and give examples of how and why. I wonder whether you can do that, and I think it's fair to ask. Again.

Who are the top QB over the last three years that passer rating or Total QBR doesn't show?

 

[Toruk_Makto]

What's odd is that you're adamant that certain metrics and sample sizes are misleading, and yet you have no opinion about which QB are being cheated out of the top 5 or top 10 by these unfair sample sizes and unfair metrics, let alone how. You just go strangely quiet on both topics, and instead stick to generalities.

If I thought a certain metric was severely flawed, I'd give specific examples of QB who benefit unfairly, and then go into descriptions of how they benefit. I'd also list the QB whom the metric undervalued, and give examples of how and why. I wonder whether you can do that, and I think it's fair to ask. Again.

Who are the top QB over the last three years that passer rating or Total QBR doesn't show?

You think I am trying prove or disprove anything. I'm not. I'm saying what you're posting as evidence that Dak is "clutch" is based on a bad metric.

On that we agree no?