Who Was The Best WR In The NFL In 2014?

[NeonDeion21]

Throughout the season, I charted every single target for each team’s number one wide receiver. Using this absurd amount of data, I have come up with four major stat categories that will help me come to a conclusion. But before we get into some deeper stats, let’s take a look at the four primary stats that most people use when looking at the receivers. These four stat categories are simply targets, catches, yards and touchdowns. For our purposes, we are going to call them the “POWER FOUR”. Here’s the list of all the number one receivers from each team and their four primary stats from the 2014 season:


Just looking at the POWER FOUR, you could make a pretty good argument that Antonio Brown was the best receiver in 2014. He lead the league in catches, yards, and finished second in touchdowns and targets. So why not Antonio Brown? Because not all offenses are created equal. Allow me to explain.

Read the rest at: http://cover32.com/cowboys/2015/04/09/who-was-the-best-wide-receiver-in-2014/

 

[Joe Realist]

It might be Odell this year.

 

[StarBoyz83]

Id say hes easily one of the best. Top 3 in nfl

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

Nice analysis Neon. I think a few "per target" stats should be thrown into the mix in order to provide a more complete picture. I understand the impetus for using "per pass attempt" stats, but I'm not sure the arguments made by guys like Harstad are all that compelling. There may be all sorts of reasons that a WR is being targeted that have nothing to do with (a) his being open or (b) his being too good to ignore even if he isn't open. The QB may just have a fixation with the WR (the way Cutler sometimes had with Marshall), or the WR may be the primary read most often for a QB that's not all that good at going through his progressions, or it may be that there just aren't any other good options on the team. Accordingly, in my view, using "per pass attempt" stats doesn't do enough to put the players on equal footing. Antonio Brown, for example, seems to be targeted by a disproportionate number of Roethlisberger's pass attempts, and I don't believe it's because he's just that much better than the other receivers on the list.

 

[DFWJC]

Nice analysis Neon. I think a few "per target" stats should be thrown into the mix in order to provide a more complete picture. I understand the impetus for using "per pass attempt" stats, but I'm not sure the arguments made by guys like Harstad are all that compelling. There may be all sorts of reasons that a WR is being targeted that have nothing to do with (a) his being open or (b) his being too good to ignore even if he isn't open. The QB may just have a fixation with the WR (the way Cutler sometimes had with Marshall), or the WR may be the primary read most often for a QB that's not all that good at going through his progressions, or it may be that there just aren't any other good options on the team. Accordingly, in my view, using "per pass attempt" stats doesn't do enough to put the players on equal footing. Antonio Brown, for example, seems to be targeted by a disproportionate number of Roethlisberger's pass attempts, and I don't believe it's because he's just that much better than the other receivers on the list.

I do think the gap between Brown and the next best receiving option on his team is greater than many of those others, and that could help explain the targets. I also don't think Brown got the double teams as much--though that may change this year.

 

[theogt]

Nice analysis Neon. I think a few "per target" stats should be thrown into the mix in order to provide a more complete picture. I understand the impetus for using "per pass attempt" stats, but I'm not sure the arguments made by guys like Harstad are all that compelling. There may be all sorts of reasons that a WR is being targeted that have nothing to do with (a) his being open or (b) his being too good to ignore even if he isn't open. The QB may just have a fixation with the WR (the way Cutler sometimes had with Marshall), or the WR may be the primary read most often for a QB that's not all that good at going through his progressions, or it may be that there just aren't any other good options on the team. Accordingly, in my view, using "per pass attempt" stats doesn't do enough to put the players on equal footing. Antonio Brown, for example, seems to be targeted by a disproportionate number of Roethlisberger's pass attempts, and I don't believe it's because he's just that much better than the other receivers on the list.

Yard per target:
Brown - 9.4
Bryant - 9.7

TDs per target:
Brown - .072
Bryant - .118

Catches per Target:
Brown - 71.3%
Bryant - 64.7%

% of Team Targets:
Brown - 29.6%
Bryant - 28.6%

Team Pass Attempts:
Steelers - 612
Cowboys - 476

Team Pass/Run Ratio:
Steelers - 59/41
Cowboys - 48/52

If you assume (i) Dallas passed the same number of times as Pittsburgh, (ii) the percentage of team targets does not change and (iii) the catches per target, yards per target and TDs per target ratios do not change, Dez's numbers compared to Brown's would look like this:

Targets:
Brown - 181
Bryant - 175

Catches:
Brown - 129
Bryant - 113

Yards:
Brown - 1698
Bryant - 1699

Touchdowns:
Brown - 13
Bryant - 21

 

[blumayne38]

Gimme TDs over yards and catches anyday.... Dez for prez... No argument here

 

[JoeBoBBY]

Impressive....

 

[burmafrd]

Dez has an edge if not a big one in the stats. BUT he is I believe considered more dangerous then Brown by DC's, if rumors and insinuations count

 

[Tabascocat]

I would be happy with anyone in the top eight. That said, Brown and Dez would be my top two. I need to see more of OBJ with teams planning for him now.

 

[Nova]

I do think the gap between Brown and the next best receiving option on his team is greater than many of those others, and that could help explain the targets. I also don't think Brown got the double teams as much--though that may change this year.

Brown gets doubled quite a bit. Very good receiver. Different than Dez in that he gets a bit of "free yardage" underneath, but still is very good and would not have much of an issue of him being called the number 1 guy last year.

 

[blumayne38]

It might be Odell this year.

Or dez again

 

[ufcrules1]

I think it was Brown last year.

 

[blumayne38]

I think it was Brown last year.

If football isnt about scoring points...yup

 

[Nova]

I would either say Dez or Brown, but Julio and DT were no slouches last year either.

Nelson and OBJ are the two guys I question more. Both had great numbers, but did not see the same kind of attention that Dez and Brown received.

 

[DFWJC]

Brown gets doubled quite a bit. Very good receiver. Different than Dez in that he gets a bit of "free yardage" underneath, but still is very good and would not have much of an issue of him being called the number 1 guy last year.

yeah. I wasn't at all arguing how he's ranked. I was just trying offer a possible explanation on the targeting

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

Yard per target:
Brown - 9.4
Bryant - 9.7

TDs per target:
Brown - .072
Bryant - .118

Catches per Target:
Brown - 71.3%
Bryant - 64.7%

% of Team Targets:
Brown - 29.6%
Bryant - 28.6%

Team Pass Attempts:
Steelers - 612
Cowboys - 476

Team Pass/Run Ratio:
Steelers - 59/41
Cowboys - 48/52

If you assume (i) Dallas passed the same number of times as Pittsburgh, (ii) the percentage of team targets does not change and (iii) the catches per target, yards per target and TDs per target ratios do not change, Dez's numbers compared to Brown's would look like this:

Targets:
Brown - 181
Bryant - 175

Catches:
Brown - 129
Bryant - 113

Yards:
Brown - 1698
Bryant - 1699

Touchdowns:
Brown - 13
Bryant - 21

Good stuff, theo. Thanks for this.

 

[VACowboy]

How do we account for Brown's much higher catches per target?

I think that is almost as important as any stat.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

How do we account for Brown's much higher catches per target?

I think that is almost as important as any stat.

I don't watch a lot of Steelers games so I can't comment on Brown, but I know a lot of teams throw short passes nowadays that kind of supplement for their run game. I know the Patriots do this a lot. Brady takes one step back and throws it to some small receiver standing on the line of scrimmage who then runs for 5 yards. Many offensives seem to be going this route. It makes RBs less important, slot receivers more important (who you can acquire later in the draft), and makes up for bad O-lines because the QB gets rid of it immediately. Our offense doesn't do that at all. We still play that 90's style offense. Traditional running team, 50/50 run/pass ratio, big WRs who go for out routes and deep slants, a big TE who goes underneath, and a QB who drops back and waits in the pocket until someone gets open. I imagine if we played more like other teams, our individual players would get more numbers.

Anyway, my point is, it makes QB's completion percentage skyrocket but their yards per pass goes down. Dez doesn't get passes like this so he has to fight for every reception he makes.

 

[Az Lurker]

How do we account for Brown's much higher catches per target?

I think that is almost as important as any stat.

I'm betting he ran more quick short routes that were predicated on the idea of getting lots of YAC while Dez made more of his catches downfield.