CFZ Why “last year” is not as relevant in the NFL

[Bobhaze]

The OP is another reason I ignore it when the NFL talks about each team's "strength of schedule".

At this time in 2022 we were worried about playing the Bengals and Rams but Dallas beat them. We were not worried about the Jaguars in December but the Cowboys lost.

And it happens to every team, every year across the league.

Excellent points.

 

[ArtClink]

Brother Rambo I appreciate the positivity and outlook and I support it 100%. I am very positive about our Cowboys chances this year. But I can also understand why some fans are not as excited or as optimistic. The last 27 years have made some feel that way and they don’t see that as “complaining”. The difference of opinion is what makes an opinion forum fly.

I would argue that we aren’t “contending for a championship“ until we are actually playing in at least an NFC championship. That’s just my opinion. To me, this time of year all NFL rosters are based on paper until at least enough games have been played to form a trend. This year’s Cowboys roster is certainly as good as any I’ve seen since 2007. We will see! Can’t wait.

Great post Hazey.

 

[Diehardblues]

What happened last year in the NFL is usually not that relevant the following year. Obviously a few teams are consistent but not as many as I thought. We as Cowboys fans have to hope the Cowboys in 2023 will make the playoffs for the third straight year for the first time since the mid-90s.

Since 1990 - over 30+ seasons - a minimum of 4 teams that made the playoffs the prior year do not make the playoffs the following year. Sometimes more. In the 2022 season, a whopping 8 of the 14 teams that made the playoffs, were not in the playoffs the year before in 2021. That’s nearly 60%! I’ve been saying for years, the NFL is extremely hard to predict.

When I look at all the preseason rankings and predictions by all the sports media gurus, just remember that it’s very possible that half of the teams they are predicting making the playoffs won’t.

I really like this year’s Cowboys roster. On paper, it’s the best we’ve had since probably 2007. I think we should make the playoffs. But when I look at our schedule before the season even starts, it’s very hard to predict wins and losses. Why? Because we don’t know who the minimum of 4 teams will be that are better than last year, nor do we know which teams will be worse than last year.

Honestly, I LOVE the unpredictability of the NFL! Enjoy the ride. The only guarantee I will make is that there will be surprises. So glad the real season is about to start. GO COWBOYS!

I always look to the professional handicappers. Look at the teams who they are projecting to have better seasons than last year

In the NFC the prominent favorite to improve is Detroit. Surprisingly the Saints are also. Cowboys based on our schedule arent favored to win anymore games than either. And SF and Phil only teams predicted to win more.

AFC is more wide open. KC, Cinn and Buff the favs with several upstarts like Jets and Browns. Along with others like Chargers, Jags and Dolphins.

So that’s a potential of at least 2 new playoff teams in each conference. Which I think is probably fairly accurate pending any major injuries. There is always a surprise or two.

But I think on the most part unless there’s major retirement or personnel moves we can look to last year for the core of playoff teams.

 

[TequilaCowboy]

What happened last year in the NFL is usually not that relevant the following year. Obviously a few teams are consistent but not as many as I thought. We as Cowboys fans have to hope the Cowboys in 2023 will make the playoffs for the third straight year for the first time since the mid-90s.

Since 1990 - over 30+ seasons - a minimum of 4 teams that made the playoffs the prior year do not make the playoffs the following year. Sometimes more. In the 2022 season, a whopping 8 of the 14 teams that made the playoffs, were not in the playoffs the year before in 2021. That’s nearly 60%! I’ve been saying for years, the NFL is extremely hard to predict.

When I look at all the preseason rankings and predictions by all the sports media gurus, just remember that it’s very possible that half of the teams they are predicting making the playoffs won’t.

I really like this year’s Cowboys roster. On paper, it’s the best we’ve had since probably 2007. I think we should make the playoffs. But when I look at our schedule before the season even starts, it’s very hard to predict wins and losses. Why? Because we don’t know who the minimum of 4 teams will be that are better than last year, nor do we know which teams will be worse than last year.

Honestly, I LOVE the unpredictability of the NFL! Enjoy the ride. The only guarantee I will make is that there will be surprises. So glad the real season is about to start. GO COWBOYS!

Which is why i have been saying all along, i will only take it game by game. Looking at the schedule you don't really know which game you will win or lose. Only thing certain is things will change. Right now, the giants are on the schedule, so let's go....

 

[CCBoy]

Brother Rambo I appreciate the positivity and outlook and I support it 100%. I am very positive about our Cowboys chances this year. But I can also understand why some fans are not as excited or as optimistic. The last 27 years have made some feel that way and they don’t see that as “complaining”. The difference of opinion is what makes an opinion forum fly.

I would argue that we aren’t “contending for a championship“ until we are actually playing in at least an NFC championship. That’s just my opinion. To me, this time of year all NFL rosters are based on paper until at least enough games have been played to form a trend. This year’s Cowboys roster is certainly as good as any I’ve seen since 2007. We will see! Can’t wait.

If one's standard is win it all...then state it. That's not my final line. Mine is good and solid football by the Cowboys. I love the team. Not just winning it all for trophy counts.

 

[CCBoy]

Exactly, being a senior citizen, it is also easier for me to read. As as a looooong time Cowboys fans, winning the division was routine, getting to a NFC Conference game was often and entering into the Superbowl was on occasion.
Those are "urban legends" this the 21st Century Cowboys fans and are thrilled with the Cowboys Jason Garrett mediocre Mendoza ( aka: .500 +/-) seasons.

75 here...but still like the Cowboys brand of play. They do commit to team. What is the frustrating part is not being able to always do what is expected. I don't believe that what is missing is a player abusing coach. As to that, leadership and effectiveness has again returned to quality times under Jerry Jones.

 

[CCBoy]

Last Year's NFC Playoff Teams: Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, Vikings, Buccaneers, 49ers, Seahawks.

The Cowboys, Eagles and 49ers are the most likely NFC teams to repeat. The Seahawks had an exceedingly easy schedule last year, and just barely squeaked into the postseason because the Lions beat the Packers. But the Hawks had a good offseason; so, if their QB is not a one-year wonder, they have a chance. For much of the year, the Vikings were challenging for the best record in the NFC. They fell off at the end, but questions remain for the other teams in their division. The most likely NFC playoff teams to miss the playoffs this year are the Giants and Buccaneers. The Bucs are rebuilding with a QB who hasn't been successful in his other 3 stops in the NFL, and the Saints have a better roster especially with the addition of Derek Carr. The Giants may get surpassed by rising teams in the NFC North - either the Lions or Packers.

Last Years AFC Playoff Teams: Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, Ravens, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers.

Many believe that the Chiefs, Bills and Bengals are the 3 best teams in the NFL, so barring catastrophic injuries, they are likely to return to the playoffs this season. The Ravens must contend with Cleveland, who many experts think have an excellent defense. The contentious holdout of the Ravens QB may have lingering effects. But the Ravens are well coached. The Jaguars snuck into the playoffs because of two things: the Cowboys defense fell apart, and the Titans year end losing streak. But the Titans have an old roster, and the Texans and Colts have rookie QB's. The Chargers are up and down, and no one knows how they'll adjust to their new offensive coordinator. The Dolphins are likely to be challenged by the Jets, who have taken a page from the NBA and have tried to construct a Super Team. The Dolphins and Ravens and Chargers are the most likely AFC teams to miss the playoffs this year.

NFL Playoff overview for 2023: There are only 6 teams that seem like surefire locks to make the playoffs in 2023, 3 each in the AFC and NFC. They are the Chiefs, Bengals and Bills in the AFC, and Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys in the NFC.

The Cowboys will play the Bills, Dolphins, Eagles (2x), Giants (2x), Chargers, Lions, 49ers and Seahawks this year. That is 10 games against playoff teams from a year ago. They also must play against the "Super Team" Jets, with Dalvin Cook and Aaron Rodgers. That leaves only 6 games against "perceived" weak teams of the Commanders (2x), Patriots, Raiders, Rams, and Cardinals.

I see the Cowboys finishing the year strong, going 7-1 with an away loss to Buffalo in December. The toughest portion of their schedule is 3 away games in a 4 week span of mid October to early November - all against playoff teams from the 2022 season: 49ers, Chargers and Eagles. Frankly, even with their tough schedule, I believe the Cowboys will win between 12-15 games in the 2023 season, barring catastrophic injuries to the team. My prediction: 13-4.

This weekend Pittsburgh plays San Francisco. I also was watching the Philadelphia vs Kansas City pre-season game, and Philadelphia just looked like NFL players to this fan.

 

[Diehardblues]

The key to our success in playoffs this year is winning the division . Otherwise we will need 3 wins on the road to reach SB. Although reaching champ game would be progress.

2023 is NFCE or Bust IMO. That might make a good thread .