Why are fans so afraid of taking a RB early?

[TheMarathonContinues]

The biggest talking point I keep seeing about the whole "don't take a RB early" is because you can get one in later rounds and they don't last long.

Is it not a asset to take a RB in the 1st round?

I get him for 4 years with a option year which is 5 years on a favorable rookie deal.

I can think franchise him for one year at 11-12 million......

I'm getting 6 years of a guys young prime career on a affordable deal and I'm getting one of the better RB prospects in this draft....

Will you get 6 prime years out of any other position not Quarterback? Maybe wide receiver?

I'm just trying to figure out why should I be afraid to take a RB early like others seem to be. If I was the Eagles and had the 10th pick in the draft I for sure would think long and hard about Bijan Robinson.

 

[Wilson]

It's not about being "afraid" it's about making the most of the picks we have. There are plenty of needs. Most of us feel an offensive lineman is needed and are best chosen at the top of the draft. Serviceable runningbacks can be had later.

 

[CATCH17]

I’m not..

I just don’t like paying them 10-15 mill on their 2nd contract.

We have a team that is built where a RB makes sense.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

It's not about being "afraid" it's about making the most of the picks we have. There are plenty of needs. Most of us feel an offensive lineman is needed and are best chosen at the top of the draft. Serviceable runningbacks can be had later.

A offensive linemen is needed but not for next year.....Steele, Tyron, Tyler, Biadicz and Martin are your starters. But alright let's believe that they need a guard....you can get a guard in the 2nd or 3rd. With no issue.

You do not need to use a 1st round pick on offensive linemen every time. No other team builds a roster that way. McCarthy has a history of building good offensive lines without investing high capital in it. He's shown us his eye when he was the only person in the world that had Steele starting week 1 for us a free years ago and we thought it was a mistake.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I’m not..

I just don’t like paying them 10-15 mill on their 2nd contract.

We have a team that is built where a RB makes sense.

This is why you take one in the 1st round...get him for 5 to 6 years...no 2nd contract involved.

 

[Hardline]

I am 100% for drafting a RB early as long as it's Robinson or Gibbs.
The Cowboys have historically had their best success with great RBs. There isn't a DeMarco Murray to be had in later rounds.
Charbonnet is the only RB i would take in the 2nd round. After that Ill take Miller or the Pitt RB in the 3rd.

 

[MonsterD]

If someone had a crystal ball and could tell me that Pollard is going to look like year 5 Elliott out there plodding it for 3 yards I can understand why there is such a need. But we don't need 2 A+ RBs it isn't 1990 with Marcus Allen and Bo Jackson, it is 2023.

No need to go for the best RB possible if you can improve the Oline which is much more valuable in today's NFL.

 

[Wilson]

A offensive linemen is needed but not for next year.....Steele, Tyron, Tyler, Biadicz and Martin are your starters. But alright let's believe that they need a guard....you can get a guard in the 2nd or 3rd. With no issue.

You do not need to use a 1st round pick on offensive linemen every time. No other team builds a roster that way. McCarthy has a history of building good offensive lines without investing high capital in it. He's shown us his eye when he was the only person in the world that had Steele starting week 1 for us a free years ago and we thought it was a mistake.

Totally disagree. An offensive lineman is needed this year. A plug-and-play day-one lineman in the first round is far more likely than one taken in the second and especially the third.
In your title, you said "a" running back "early". The only running back worth taking early would be Bijan Robinson and he won't be there when we're on the board. So no to runningback "early".

 

[bewp7]

because it is 10x easy to get rb production later in the draft or even udfa or cheap vet free agent rb

u are just so much better off taking ol over rb

 

[gtb1943]

A offensive linemen is needed but not for next year.....Steele, Tyron, Tyler, Biadicz and Martin are your starters. But alright let's believe that they need a guard....you can get a guard in the 2nd or 3rd. With no issue.

You do not need to use a 1st round pick on offensive linemen every time. No other team builds a roster that way. McCarthy has a history of building good offensive lines without investing high capital in it. He's shown us his eye when he was the only person in the world that had Steele starting week 1 for us a free years ago and we thought it was a mistake.

Green Bay O linemen get away with more holds then any other team. Hard to transplant that so no McCarthy is not some kind of OL whisperer

 

[gtb1943]

There are not many RBs worthy of a true #1 pick. Bluntly speaking they have to be incredibly special. Robinson could be; but how much of his success was being at Alabama?
Gibbs? I don't think so.
SO this year I see no RB worth a first rd pick.

 

[CATCH17]

Totally disagree. An offensive lineman is needed this year. A plug-and-play day-one lineman in the first round is far more likely than one taken in the second and especially the third.
In your title, you said "a" running back "early". The only running back worth taking early would be Bijan Robinson and he won't be there when we're on the board. So no to runningback "early".

But just because we need something doesn’t mean we should draft it.

Darnell Wright is good value.

Torrence from Florida? Not with pick 26… Sorry.

 

[CATCH17]

There are not many RBs worthy of a true #1 pick. Bluntly speaking they have to be incredibly special. Robinson could be; but how much of his success was being at Alabama?
Gibbs? I don't think so.
SO this year I see no RB worth a first rd pick.

Gibbs played at Georgia Tech and transferred to Alabama. He was awesome at both places.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Green Bay O linemen get away with more holds then any other team. Hard to transplant that so no McCarthy is not some kind of OL whisperer

What? Literally everyone gets way with holds what are you talking about lol? You think the Cowboys don't get away with holds? You tinfoil hat guys know how to jump into a discussion.....McCarthy has a history of finding offensive linemen....true or false? And regardless thats' irrelevant. Teams find linemen all through the draft. You don't have to invest a 1st rounder every time you need a lineman.

 

[Typhus]

The biggest talking point I keep seeing about the whole "don't take a RB early" is because you can get one in later rounds and they don't last long.

Is it not a asset to take a RB in the 1st round?

I get him for 4 years with a option year which is 5 years on a favorable rookie deal.

I can think franchise him for one year at 11-12 million......

I'm getting 6 years of a guys young prime career on a affordable deal and I'm getting one of the better RB prospects in this draft....

Will you get 6 prime years out of any other position not Quarterback? Maybe wide receiver?

I'm just trying to figure out why should I be afraid to take a RB early like others seem to be. If I was the Eagles and had the 10th pick in the draft I for sure would think long and hard about Bijan Robinson.

Because they are burnt by taking one 4th overall, I don't understand why people get so hung up on draft round, first round especially.
That is a very general light lazy evaluation, it's always slotting over round.
Peeps get too caught up in "I will never take this or that positional group with first draft pick", its a silly, outdated notion, and urban legend.
Various players/positions will be available in this years draft at 26, there is absolutely zero reason to panic or overreact at 26 in this draft.
IDC who the player is at 26, as long as its a starter with high upside and there will be a couple sitting there when this first day falls to the end of round 1.
I expect to see teams trying to move back to day 2 after pick 20 or so.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

There are not many RBs worthy of a true #1 pick. Bluntly speaking they have to be incredibly special. Robinson could be; but how much of his success was being at Alabama?
Gibbs? I don't think so.
SO this year I see no RB worth a first rd pick.

The hell are you talking about? Robinson went to Texas man you need to be drug tested.....Texas SUCKED...had he went to Alabama he probably would be a top 10 pick...

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Totally disagree. An offensive lineman is needed this year. A plug-and-play day-one lineman in the first round is far more likely than one taken in the second and especially the third.
In your title, you said "a" running back "early". The only running back worth taking early would be Bijan Robinson and he won't be there when we're on the board. So no to runningback "early".

You could be right. But its also too early to tell. Teams seem to be afraid to take one early....I do wonder if Chargers do it with Ekeler.....I see them doing it actually. I see a few teams but not many. A lot of teams either have more pressing needs or have a RB on a cheap deal. Bijan falling is more realistic than I think people want to admit.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

There are 3 major reasons not to consider it, and they all revolve around winning:

1. Positional Value
A running back simply isn’t worth what a lineman or even a receiver is. A huge part of this is the realization over the last 20 years that the QB, scheme, and Oline have more to do with the running game than the actual RB. That’s not saying Derrick Henry won’t outproduce Miles Sanders, but A good RB vs a great RB is one of the smallest margins of variance when it comes to team finish. We can say the best Olines or the best dlines are getting their teams to the CCG and SB, but the finishes of the best running backs have a wide berth of results. LV, CLE, TEN… doesn’t seem to matter if they have one or not. Get the oline for him to maximize his talent, and suddenly like KC or PHI you don’t need him at all.

Add to it that there are no 400 carry RBs anymore, and any team Bijan goes to will employ him as a part time player. We’ve seen it in many crucial situations where Pollard, Zeke, or both are on the sideline. Lineman, particularly offensive lineman, are there every single snap. Get Bijan and you still need 2-3 other RBs to fill the gaps. Get Jamar Chase and he locks down that X position.

2. Alternative Option
You could have signed Miles Sanders this offseason for 6m$ AAV and saved a first round pick. At no other position can you get a pro bowl player in his prime for so cheap. Compare that to DE, or LT, or DT.

Do a comparison exercise: Would you take 1st round superstar Saquon with good non1st DE Dorance, or 1st round superstar Micah with good non1st RB Pollard? The difference in pass rusher talent from good to great is severe. DT from good to great is severe. LT is severe… RB is not. The stats are pretty but the impact is closer when behind similar lines, in similar offenses. Are we seeing a tremendous amount of drop off from 2022 Pollard than we saw from 1300 yard Zeke? Are the Vikings stagnated on potential in the Dalvin Cook era due to everything AP accomplished before him? The RB is less dynamic, but the team overall is regarded similarly from one player to the next.

Additionally, you don’t find as big of value in pass rushers at the highest tier that you do at running back past the first round. Joey Bosa, 1st rounder. Donald, Micah, Reddick, Nick Bosa, 1st rounders. TJ & JJ Watt, Khalil Mack, Deforest Buckner, Daron Payne, Fletcher Cox, Ndamukong, Chandler Jones… all these guys are first rounders. Remember that Micah was available right at that 10 spot you’re giving up for Bijan. So was Donald and so was Cox. This is the prime area for superstar Dline talent right after all the QBs are taken.

3. ROI
Zeke was done by 27. Todd Gurley done by 26. And these were perennial pro bowl guys. If a RB actually makes it to 30 like Adrian, it’s fantastic. But Micah is going to be good for at least 10 years. Zach Martin could play until he’s 35. They’re more expensive, but you don’t see teams disappointed with the fact they have to pay their star lineman. The only teams disappointed are the ones that don’t have these players good enough to pay.

 

[Wilson]

You could be right. But its also too early to tell. Teams seem to be afraid to take one early....I do wonder if Chargers do it with Ekeler.....I see them doing it actually. I see a few teams but not many. A lot of teams either have more pressing needs or have a RB on a cheap deal. Bijan falling is more realistic than I think people want to admit.

Well if he fell, which he won't, I'd take him with our first.

 

[nightrain]

Overall, RBs are not a significant commodity on NFL rosters. They have a short life cycle and are best utilized with a complimentary scheme that includes play calling balance and a stout group up front. I would consider trading a 1st round pick where RB was the BPA and the biggest need. Of course, RB is not the biggest need for the Cowboys since they franchised Pollard and the 26th pick should be utilized accordingly.