Why are fans so afraid of taking a RB early?

[Typhus]

And I'm gonna be honest with you....I see some special talent that can improve this team RIGHT NOW....a few of those guys are RB's...

Nice solid RB class coming out, if you want the big back there are 2 leading the pack
BR and Charbonnet
The excitement begins when you start looking at the "pollard" types that are very deep in this draft.

 

[CATCH17]

First-round RBs also have one of the highest bust rates in the draft. Unless Bijan comes with a crystal ball, I really don't see how it's smart to spend a first-round pick on the rights to give the seventh-highest RB contract in the league, fully guaranteed, to a guy who has never played an NFL snap before.

Every one of these guys looks like the second coming until they're not. Let someone else be a hero.

So do tight ends. Especially low athlete guys like Mayer but everyone is on board with that.

 

[EenonyMoose]

So do tight ends. Especially low athlete guys like Mayer but everyone is on board with that.

Yup, same thing. The next T.J. Hockenson doesn't move the needle as much as the top OL or DL on the board, and the drop off isn't that huge in the next rounds anyway.

 

[DFWJC]

26th is not severely early

4th on the other hand....

Having said that, with the great depth at RB in this draft, if Bijan is gone at 26 I'm waiting

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

There are 3 major reasons not to consider it, and they all revolve around winning:

1. Positional Value
A running back simply isn’t worth what a lineman or even a receiver is. A huge part of this is the realization over the last 20 years that the QB, scheme, and Oline have more to do with the running game than the actual RB. That’s not saying Derrick Henry won’t outproduce Miles Sanders, but A good RB vs a great RB is one of the smallest margins of variance when it comes to team finish. We can say the best Olines or the best dlines are getting their teams to the CCG and SB, but the finishes of the best running backs have a wide berth of results. LV, CLE, TEN… doesn’t seem to matter if they have one or not. Get the oline for him to maximize his talent, and suddenly like KC or PHI you don’t need him at all.

Add to it that there are no 400 carry RBs anymore, and any team Bijan goes to will employ him as a part time player. We’ve seen it in many crucial situations where Pollard, Zeke, or both are on the sideline. Lineman, particularly offensive lineman, are there every single snap. Get Bijan and you still need 2-3 other RBs to fill the gaps. Get Jamar Chase and he locks down that X position.

2. Alternative Option
You could have signed Miles Sanders this offseason for 6m$ AAV and saved a first round pick. At no other position can you get a pro bowl player in his prime for so cheap. Compare that to DE, or LT, or DT.

Do a comparison exercise: Would you take 1st round superstar Saquon with good non1st DE Dorance, or 1st round superstar Micah with good non1st RB Pollard? The difference in pass rusher talent from good to great is severe. DT from good to great is severe. LT is severe… RB is not. The stats are pretty but the impact is closer when behind similar lines, in similar offenses. Are we seeing a tremendous amount of drop off from 2022 Pollard than we saw from 1300 yard Zeke? Are the Vikings stagnated on potential in the Dalvin Cook era due to everything AP accomplished before him? The RB is less dynamic, but the team overall is regarded similarly from one player to the next.

Additionally, you don’t find as big of value in pass rushers at the highest tier that you do at running back past the first round. Joey Bosa, 1st rounder. Donald, Micah, Reddick, Nick Bosa, 1st rounders. TJ & JJ Watt, Khalil Mack, Deforest Buckner, Daron Payne, Fletcher Cox, Ndamukong, Chandler Jones… all these guys are first rounders. Remember that Micah was available right at that 10 spot you’re giving up for Bijan. So was Donald and so was Cox. This is the prime area for superstar Dline talent right after all the QBs are taken.

3. ROI
Zeke was done by 27. Todd Gurley done by 26. And these were perennial pro bowl guys. If a RB actually makes it to 30 like Adrian, it’s fantastic. But Micah is going to be good for at least 10 years. Zach Martin could play until he’s 35. They’re more expensive, but you don’t see teams disappointed with the fact they have to pay their star lineman. The only teams disappointed are the ones that don’t have these players good enough to pay.

These are fair points but strongly disagree.
1. Positional value....this is where teams hurt themselves and fail. You can't build your roster based on positional value. You can't consistently take the inferior player because he plays a more important position. And the thing about Bijan is he can play all over the field. He's a better version of Deebo Samuel. You could literally play him like you would Deebo. I'm not taking a inferior player with a risk of busting over Bijan. Just couldn't do it.

2. Miles Sanders ain't Bijan though. None of these backs are. Its why the 49ers traded for McCaffery. They had a fine running game. Always have thanks to Shanahan. But its still Christian McCaffery.

Would I take Saquon and Dorance over Micah and Pollard.....I'd probably take the latter because Micah is better at his position than Saquon is.

This is the would I take Ramsey/Henry over Zeke/Jaylon argument. Of course I'd rather have the first. But this isn't the proposition that teams are finding themselves. Teams are drafting BUSTS in fear of not taking certain positions....because of "positional value"....its funny you bring up Micah. If Micah wasn't considered a linebacker he would've been a top 3 pick. But because he was considered a "middle linebacker" he fell to the Cowboys and got taken after JC Horn of all people. People are making roster decisions based on what the Chiefs and Pats have done. Those are not the standards on how to build teams.

3. In all of your examples you are comparing extremes. There's only ONE Zack Martin. There's only one Micah Parsons. So you saying well would you rather have Zack Martin or Saquon Barkley...of course I'd rather have Zack Martin but how many future hall of fame guards are going top lay until they are 36 at a high level? That's like saying would I take Saquon or Trent Williams who's playing until he's 40. If you guarantee me he will play until 40 then sure.

But that's not how the NFL works does it? Travis Fredericks retired at 30. Patrick Willis and Calvin Johnson left before their prime....Zeke finished at 27...Gurley gone even earlier. Frank Gore, Fred Taylor, AP played into their 30s...

Gonna end on this note.....all teams aren't the same. You're a Eagles fan. I'm not speaking for Eagles fans I'm speaking strictly as someone on the outside. If my team is stacked like the Eagles and the only holes I have aren't available at 10....why would I pass up Bijan because the Pats didn't need a RB to win a SB? Or because he won't play until he's 34? Its the job to win a SB next season or 10 years from now? The answer is simple. NOW.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

26th is not severely early

4th on the other hand....

Having said that, with the great depth at RB in this draft, if Bijan is gone at 26 I'm waiting

Knowing what I know now? Give me Ramsey and Henry but Zeke at 4 did not cripple this team. Running his *** into the ground did.

 

[Rockport]

The biggest talking point I keep seeing about the whole "don't take a RB early" is because you can get one in later rounds and they don't last long.

Is it not a asset to take a RB in the 1st round?

I get him for 4 years with a option year which is 5 years on a favorable rookie deal.

I can think franchise him for one year at 11-12 million......

I'm getting 6 years of a guys young prime career on a affordable deal and I'm getting one of the better RB prospects in this draft....

Will you get 6 prime years out of any other position not Quarterback? Maybe wide receiver?

I'm just trying to figure out why should I be afraid to take a RB early like others seem to be. If I was the Eagles and had the 10th pick in the draft I for sure would think long and hard about Bijan Robinson.

If he’s any good he’ll want to renegotiate after year 3.

 

[CATCH17]

Yup, same thing. The next T.J. Hockenson doesn't move the needle as much as the top OL or DL on the board, and the drop off isn't that huge in the next rounds anyway.

I’m pretty sure Hockenson tested way higher athletically than Mayer.

Mayer is like bottom of the barrel athletically.

So the hope is he’s Witten and if he’s not then you just got awful value with your first rounder.

 

[nightrain]

Pollard is coming off of an injury and he is not an all-around back. We definitely need a running back. If Bijan was available take him, but the fall-off is steep after that. I don't see any being worth a first aside from him. If there's a first-round caliber interior offensive lineman on the board at 26 we should absolutely take him.

They are paying him franchise tag money. he better be an all around back. Agree 100% on OL at 26.

If you don't believe that RB is a need on this team, then you are fooling yourself.

Not 1st round need. Their Scouts surely have other RBs on radar for later rounds.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

These are fair points but strongly disagree.
1. Positional value....this is where teams hurt themselves and fail. You can't build your roster based on positional value. You can't consistently take the inferior player because he plays a more important position. And the thing about Bijan is he can play all over the field. He's a better version of Deebo Samuel. You could literally play him like you would Deebo. I'm not taking a inferior player with a risk of busting over Bijan. Just couldn't do it.

2. Miles Sanders ain't Bijan though. None of these backs are. Its why the 49ers traded for McCaffery. They had a fine running game. Always have thanks to Shanahan. But its still Christian McCaffery.

Would I take Saquon and Dorance over Micah and Pollard.....I'd probably take the latter because Micah is better at his position than Saquon is.

This is the would I take Ramsey/Henry over Zeke/Jaylon argument. Of course I'd rather have the first. But this isn't the proposition that teams are finding themselves. Teams are drafting BUSTS in fear of not taking certain positions....because of "positional value"....its funny you bring up Micah. If Micah wasn't considered a linebacker he would've been a top 3 pick. But because he was considered a "middle linebacker" he fell to the Cowboys and got taken after JC Horn of all people. People are making roster decisions based on what the Chiefs and Pats have done. Those are not the standards on how to build teams.

3. In all of your examples you are comparing extremes. There's only ONE Zack Martin. There's only one Micah Parsons. So you saying well would you rather have Zack Martin or Saquon Barkley...of course I'd rather have Zack Martin but how many future hall of fame guards are going top lay until they are 36 at a high level? That's like saying would I take Saquon or Trent Williams who's playing until he's 40. If you guarantee me he will play until 40 then sure.

But that's not how the NFL works does it? Travis Fredericks retired at 30. Patrick Willis and Calvin Johnson left before their prime....Zeke finished at 27...Gurley gone even earlier. Frank Gore, Fred Taylor, AP played into their 30s...

Gonna end on this note.....all teams aren't the same. You're an Eagles fan. I'm not speaking for Eagles fans I'm speaking strictly as someone on the outside. If my team is stacked like the Eagles and the only holes I have aren't available at 10....why would I pass up Bijan because the Pats didn't need a RB to win a SB? Or because he won't play until he's 34? Its the job to win a SB next season or 10 years from now? The answer is simple. NOW.

It’s not about taking inferior players. There were players with similar draft grades to Zeke at 4 overall in 2016. You chose to prioritize RB over Dline. At 10 there won’t be a dramatic difference in draft grades. And it’s absolutely possible Bijan is the bust teams are taking over a good DT or DE. To use hindsight to define what and wasnt a bust isn’t going to help for the 2023 draft. Would you take a TE instead of Micah if he had a better draft grade ? A kick returner? A box safety? Position matters. When the player talent is comparable, that has to be considered.

Any player can retire early. But RBs almost Always do. Comparatively, Every single team in the NFL has or recently have had situations where Oline and/or Dline players are playing into their mid 30s.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Sorry I’m using voice text and I meant to reply they do have examples. I believe they do and we can start with our hero ZEEK

We've contended a lot with Zeke though.

 

[Doomsday]

Most running backs last 3 to 5 years before the wear and tear starts to affect their play
If you have a solid offensive line you can find productive running backs throughout the draft
You can't pay every position when there is a salary CAP and it is a passing league for the most part

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

It’s not about taking inferior players. There were players with similar draft grades to Zeke at 4 overall in 2016. You chose to prioritize RB over Dline. At 10 there won’t be a dramatic difference in draft grades. And it’s absolutely possible Bijan is the bust teams are taking over a good DT or DE. To use hindsight to define what and wasnt a bust isn’t going to help for the 2023 draft. Would you take a TE instead of Micah if he had a better draft grade ? A kick returner? A box safety? Position matters. When the player talent is comparable, that has to be considered.

Any player can retire early. But RBs always do. Every single team in the NFL have or recently have had situations where Oline and/or Dline players are playing into their mid 30s.

A kick returner and a box safety wouldn't have a higher grade than Micah though lol. And yes if a TE had a higher grade than Micah I for sure would've taken him. I for sure would've taken Pitts over Micah.

And its not about RB's retiring early. Can I get 5 or 6 prime years out of a running back? That's all I need. That's all you will get out of everyone not named a QB. A guy hits his prime soon as its time for him to become a free agent....at that point you are going to sign him for 4 or 5 years.....he probably won't even see the end of that deal.

This is about getting 5 or 6 prime years out of a player. A RB is going to come into the league in his prime. Other positions won't.

I guess it depends on who you are because I hated having the 4th overall that year. I knew Bosa would be gone and I didn't want a CB at 4. Think Deforest Bucker was a option...Maranelli was never drafting him though. It became Bosa or nothing...its funny though...the year prior won 4 games....next season Romo gets hurt...lean on Dak and Zeke...win 13...Zeke made more of a impact than anyone at #4 could've. Especially Buckner.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Most running backs last 3 to 5 years before the wear and tear starts to affect their play
If you have a solid offensive line you can find productive running backs throughout the draft
You can't pay every position when there is a salary CAP and it is a passing league for the most part

It may be a passing league but when it came down to winning a SB....Mahomes leaned on that run game. You still need one. And he did it with a 7th round rookie. They also invested a 1st round pick in a RB.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Nice solid RB class coming out, if you want the big back there are 2 leading the pack
BR and Charbonnet
The excitement begins when you start looking at the "pollard" types that are very deep in this draft.

Man....I don't know how creative Mike wants to get but he really could with Gibbs and Pollard especially in the passing game. Shanahan knows how with McCaffery and Deebo.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

First-round RBs also have one of the highest bust rates in the draft. Unless Bijan comes with a crystal ball, I really don't see how it's smart to spend a first-round pick on the rights to give the seventh-highest RB contract in the league, fully guaranteed, to a guy who has never played an NFL snap before.

Every one of these guys looks like the second coming until they're not. Let someone else be a hero.

Let's be honest though. The 1st round bust rates typically go to poor teams. The rate of RB's busting can't be any worse than any other position. You seen the list of tight ends that have gone in the 1st? Its a embarrassing list and I remember fondly people hyping a lot of those guys up to be the next great ones.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

A kick returner and a box safety wouldn't have a higher grade than Micah though lol. And yes if a TE had a higher grade than Micah I for sure would've taken him. I for sure would've taken Pitts over Micah.

And its not about RB's retiring early. Can I get 5 or 6 prime years out of a running back? That's all I need. That's all you will get out of everyone not named a QB. A guy hits his prime soon as its time for him to become a free agent....at that point you are going to sign him for 4 or 5 years.....he probably won't even see the end of that deal.

This is about getting 5 or 6 prime years out of a player. A RB is going to come into the league in his prime. Other positions won't.

I guess it depends on who you are because I hated having the 4th overall that year. I knew Bosa would be gone and I didn't want a CB at 4. Think Deforest Bucker was a option...Maranelli was never drafting him though. It became Bosa or nothing...it’s funny though...the year prior won 4 games....next season Romo gets hurt...lean on Dak and Zeke...win 13...Zeke made more of an impact than anyone at #4 could've. Especially Buckner.

So your argument is you devalue what Micah is doing because you can’t call it his prime? That’s an argument in semantics. A RB “in his prime” is still significantly less valuable than what Micah is doing right now.

Mark Barron in 2012 was a slam dunk top 10 pick. No one expected Kyle Pitts to fall out of the top 5. Micah didn’t even go top 10. Yes Box safeties and TE’s can have higher valuations than Micah coming out of college.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

pollard proved he's a starting RB.

we have one. why take another just to replace the "star" RB who isn't a "star" anymore?

seems to be replacing player with player "just because".

Because Pollard is injured and on a tag. You are a Pollard injury away from having Ronald Jones starting for you. If that's not a need then I dont' know what is. Same goes for the Eagles. They know damn well they can't go into the season with Boston Scott and Gainwell as their main backs.

 

[Wilson]

They are paying him franchise tag money. he better be an all around back. Agree 100% on OL at 26.

He's not an "all-around back" due to his weakness at pass protection. He hasn't proven that he can be an ever-down back either. He's coming off an injury as well. We need a runningback that is more of a bruiser/pass-blocking type that is also explosive due to his youth coming out of the draft. This type of back can be had in the third or fourth rounds. They just need to be serviceable as part of a committee.

If we get the offensive lineman we need, then Tony Pollard, Ronald Jones, and said draft pick should be able to move the ball on the ground at will. I'm hoping that Pollard isn't set back this season by his injury. With Smith being prone to injury as well, that day-one starter at the offensive line is necessary.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

So your argument is you devalue what Micah is doing because you can’t call it his prime?

That’s an argument in semantics. A RB “in his prime” is still significantly less valuable than what Micah is doing right now.

Once again, you're using EXTREMES. The chances of arookie coming in doing what Micah did is slim. The Commanders are STILL waiting for Chase Young to have the impact Micah has had. You guys have the 10th pick in the draft. You are aware that pick has a 50% chance to bust? And has a 90% chance of not being what Micah is/was his rookie year? Micah is not the bar. He's the miracle you wish for and you never get. You think if you go corner they will do what Sauce Gardner did? Its funny...I heard about a lot of Micah clones last draft...haven't heard nothing from them since.