CFZ Why Defensive Coordinators stopped blitzing us last year

[noshame]

ok, so now he is accurate but not consistently enough...that's different than not being accurate....so now you moved the goal post or changed the narrative so you can argue differently.

No moving if he was inaccurate all the time he'd be on the sofa Sunday afternoons .
Lord folks.

 

[noshame]

Dak has been considered by many to be among the best at tight window passing. He has threaded needles that most NFL QBs wouldn’t even attempt. Do you even watch the games?

Ok .

 

[Dre11]

It may or may not surprise many Cowboys fans to learn that Dak Prescott is actually one of the most effective QBs against the blitz.

Per Sports Info Solutions, in the 2021 regular season, against the blitz, Dak was 103 of 165 passes for 1,171 yards, 23 touchdowns, with four picks, and a passer rating of 113.2 against the blitz. To put that touchdown total in perspective, Aaron Rodgers was second last year with scoring passes against the blitz — with 15. (Here’s a link to an article written before the WC game last Jan) https://sports.yahoo.com/tried-warn-49ers-don-t-231431436.html

In fact, in 2021, (other than Tampa Bay) the teams that blitzed us the most ended up losing to us. Blitzing the Cowboys offense was not usually an effective defensive strategy because our offense usually made them pay.

However, as we saw in the Denver game and many games thereafter, DCs began to realize that rushing 3-4 players and dropping everyone else into coverage was the way to slow the Cowboys offense.

In the six games we lost last year including the playoff game to SF, defensive teams blitzed less and dared us to run or throw short dink and dunk passes to move the ball. For the most part it was an effective strategy. Let’s look at the games we lost and what % our opponents blitzed: (credit to Bob Sturm for the stats)

• Tampa Bay- L 31-29- they actually blitzed 50% of the offensive plays we ran and we lost. But we racked up a ton of yards and arguably should have won the game if the damn kicker didn’t miss XP and a chip shot FG.
• Denver- L- 30-15- they only blitzed 14% of our snaps. Denver was one of the first teams to recognize that blitzing us was a mistake. They usually rushed 4 and dropped 7 into coverage. Our second worst offensive game of the year.
• Kansas City- L- 19-9- they only blitzed 25% of our snaps. Using mostly the same approach as Denver, they frustrated us all day using mostly a 4 man rush.
  
• Las Vegas- L- 36-33- Amazingly, the raiders only blitzed us 4% of the time. We racked up yards but had loads of mistakes and our defense stunk it up. But again, the low blitz numbers resulted in a L.
• Arizona- L- 25-22- the cards did blitz 35% of the time and was able to frustrate our offense completely until the 4th qtr.
• SF WC game- L- 23-16- the niners only blitzed 18% of the time. Their front 4 were able to put pressure on Dak and also stop the run.

The teams that blitzed us a lot- Carolina, Minnesota, WFT and the Eagles- all got beat consistently. We beat them all. Bottom line- we have made blitzes pay. Now the offense must find a way to make the cover 2 no blitz D pay.

Run the football, if we were able to run the ball , whether they blitzed us or not the offense would've been fine.

 

[Dre11]

Make Dak find the tight windows and he pats the ball. He has to adjust this year or more of the same. Kellen needs to figure it out as well.

Will be fun to watch.

He been 1 of the better tight window passers...lol

 

[Dre11]

It’s not just the running game. The OL must protect better against only a 4 man rush and KMoore needs to find more creative to get the ball to their playmakers- Lamb, Pollard, Zeke, eventually Gallup. The guys who can get YAC need the ball in situations where they can do their thing.

It was a major factor.

 

[Cebrin]

Well Patrick Mahomes has also struggled at times against a 3 man rush 8 man coverage scheme. It’s what most teams who beat the chiefs early last year did to stymie that offense. The chiefs started last year 2-3 while Mahomes struggled to learn how to handle this approach.

He did figure it out. But Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy also made major offensive adjustments to offset what defenses were doing. Mahomes started running more and stopped trying to force deep passes into coverage and just started making defenses pay with shorter passes and his scrambling. I think Dak running more might help with this too.

Not to mention the whole league knew after that nasty injury last year you weren't going to see Dak use his legs much.

 

[Swagger]

 

[Swagger]

Makes me laugh how people still believe in Dak Prescott. 6 years in and some refuse to accept the truth. 1 play off win with several loaded rosters in a mostly terrible division.

 

[Bobhaze]

Makes me laugh how people still believe in Dak Prescott. 6 years in and some refuse to accept the truth. 1 play off win with several loaded rosters in a mostly terrible division.

I understand that opinion. And the only way I differ is this: It’s not an all or nothing thing or an either/or. Dak is certainly not elite. But he’s certainly not terrible either. It’s possible for multiple things to be true at once.

Saying Dak has had “Loaded rosters” is in my view very debatable. Good rosters? Yes I agree. Great- no. As good as last year’s rams team? As great a roster as the chiefs or Bucs before that? No way. That Bucs D in 2020 carried Brady, not the other way around. People forget Brady threw 3 pics in the NFC championship game vs the pack. His defense saved them. Brady is great but he had a great D in 2020.

Has Dak had as good a HC or OC as Andy Reid, or Sean McVey in his time here? Jason Garrett? Laughable. Mike McCarthy? Better than Garrett but not top shelf. His OC has been either Scott Linehan or Kellen Moore. Not exactly greatness there. I know JJ doesn’t acknowledge this but….Coaching in the NFL matters a ton.

My 2 points are 1. I agree that Dak is not in that elite Brady/Rodgers/Mahomes level. 2. I disagree that Dak is not good enough to win playoff games. He hasn’t won many yet of course. But he’s certainly shown to be in that second tier of QBs that have won SBs- Jim Plunkett, Phil Simms, Mark Rypien, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Eli Manning and others. He’s probably better than several of those guys.

Saying the Cowboys haven’t won a SB because of Dak alone is silly in my view.

 

[plymkr]

I still believe our best offense is the 2 minute drill. I wish we would run a no huddle, 2 minute drill type offense, ala the early 90's Bill's. Dak excels at the 2 minute drill. I'm not a huge Dak fan but he can run the 2 minute drill. I say run it all the time. Do what Dak does best.

 

[beware_d-ware]

When defenses key that heavily on the pass, you have to be able to run it. KC lost a trip to the Super Bowl because they kept passing into the Bengals' 8 man coverage with a 2 score lead. All they have to do is rush for a couple first downs into Charmin soft boxes and that game is sealed. We weren't a whole lot better.

Rushing is more about being assignment-sound than anything. It doesn't hinge on your best player, it hinges on your weakest link. And we had a lot of weak links. Crippled Zeke should never have been on the field, Biadasz struggled, McGovern struggled, Schultz struggled, etc.

Tyron and Martin were studs, but they can only take out one guy each. If Schultz is getting folded up like a lawn chair on your outside zone run, that play is in trouble no matter what your HOFers do.

 

[ondaedg]

When defenses key that heavily on the pass, you have to be able to run it. KC lost a trip to the Super Bowl because they kept passing into the Bengals' 8 man coverage with a 2 score lead. All they have to do is rush for a couple first downs into Charmin soft boxes and that game is sealed. We weren't a whole lot better.

Rushing is more about being assignment-sound than anything. It doesn't hinge on your best player, it hinges on your weakest link. And we had a lot of weak links. Crippled Zeke should never have been on the field, Biadasz struggled, McGovern struggled, Schultz struggled, etc.

Tyron and Martin were studs, but they can only take out one guy each. If Schultz is getting folded up like a lawn chair on your outside zone run, that play is in trouble no matter what your HOFers do.

This killed us multiple times during the season. Schultz let’s his man by pretty much untouched and our RBs get stuffed.

 

[Swagger]

I understand that opinion. And the only way I differ is this: It’s not an all or nothing thing or an either/or. Dak is certainly not elite. But he’s certainly not terrible either. It’s possible for multiple things to be true at once.

Saying Dak has had “Loaded rosters” is in my view very debatable. Good rosters? Yes I agree. Great- no. As good as last year’s rams team? As great a roster as the chiefs or Bucs before that? No way. That Bucs D in 2020 carried Brady, not the other way around. People forget Brady threw 3 pics in the NFC championship game vs the pack. His defense saved them. Brady is great but he had a great D in 2020.

Has Dak had as good a HC or OC as Andy Reid, or Sean McVey in his time here? Jason Garrett? Laughable. Mike McCarthy? Better than Garrett but not top shelf. His OC has been either Scott Linehan or Kellen Moore. Not exactly greatness there. I know JJ doesn’t acknowledge this but….Coaching in the NFL matters a ton.

My 2 points are 1. I agree that Dak is not in that elite Brady/Rodgers/Mahomes level. 2. I disagree that Dak is not good enough to win playoff games. He hasn’t won many yet of course. But he’s certainly shown to be in that second tier of QBs that have won SBs- Jim Plunkett, Phil Simms, Mark Rypien, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Eli Manning and others. He’s probably better than several of those guys.

Saying the Cowboys haven’t won a SB because of Dak alone is silly in my view.

I agree with a lot of the above.

But how many teams have won a Superbowl over the past 10-15 years with average QBs? Peyton Manning and Nick Foles spring to mind but they are kind of weird anomalies. Peyton was obviously a great QB so even though he had the body of an 80 year old when winning a Superbowl in Denver, he still had his brain and ability to disect any defensive coverage. But yes, the defense won the game. Foles had gone a season where he threw around 27-2 in terms of TD-Int. He had hinted at the ability to play at an elite level and to his credit he was able to do that in the NFC Championship and Superbowl. He was also playing with house money as a back up. But typically, if a limited QB reaches a Superbowl they will come up short even on very good teams e.g, Goff and Jimmy G and in my view Prescott is in that type of tier of QB. So unless the Cowboys can create a roster that is ridiculously strong in every discipline, then a Superbowl isn't coming to Jerryworld any time soon as Prescott has shown that he is not good enough to cover up any deficiencies.

And as has always been my point along with many others on here, it's exceptionally hard to build that type of roster with a limited QB like Prescott earning the big bucks. Hence why siding with a similar type QB for 30 million a year less would make sense. That's where there's a big disconnect on this forum. Prescott is anywhere in the Top 11-16 QB range in the league to myself and many others, whereas some have him ranked 5-10 and some even in the top 5 which is beyond delusional.

The roster was loaded last year and 2016, certainly good enough to reach the Superbowl in 2016 and actually win it last season with a better QB. The 49ers had the Rams beat until Stafford executed late in the 4th quarter and got the team over the line. He did the same in the Superbowl. Prescott had a similar opportunity against the 49ers and we all know how that movie ended. People will bring in Rodgers and the Packers but Prescott had a far better offensive line given the injuries to the Packers o-line and they effectively lost the game to a boneheaded special teams play in treacherous conditions. Rodgers didn't play well - one of his worst play off games, but he does have a ring and he has carried his team on countless other occasions.

The roster is still good enough to win play off games and given the NFC currently has a weaker conference than the AFC then it would be surprising if the Cowboys are unable to win a play off game this season.

 

[Aven8]

It’s not just the running game. The OL must protect better against only a 4 man rush and KMoore needs to find more creative to get the ball to their playmakers- Lamb, Pollard, Zeke, eventually Gallup. The guys who can get YAC need the ball in situations where they can do their thing.

Moore loves king developing plays just like his former teachers JG and Linny. He still thinks we have this great Oline and that Dak will have 5-7 seconds to work. It’s frustrating as hell to watch. Sending Lamb and Coop on 10 yard comebacks is just ridiculous for players like this.

 

[khiladi]

Heineke, an average QB, against the blitz last year to substantiate what I said earlier:



2017 Dak Prescott, who was awful as a QB that year, was “number 1” rated QB against the blitz:

https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/pla...sley-jason-garrett-michael-gallup-allen-hurns

Teams generally try and blitz rookies, not veteran. Teams for example aren’t going to blitz Mahomes who was the second least blitzed QB per the article I reference. below, because guys like Brady and Mahomes destroy it. On the other hand, teams blitz QBs rookie QBs a lot. What is interests is teams blitz guys like Dak a lot throughout their careers.

This article from 2021 of October from Sharp says:

Perhaps what’s more interesting are the star quarterbacks who aren’t getting this type of treatment, notably Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson. Prescott leads the league in blitz rate (36.1%) and Jackson is not far behind at fourth (32.3%).

So even if Dak is ‘highly rated’ a lot of its is probably influenced by the amount of times teams blitz, meaning trying to bring pressure. While teams are way more selective against legit pocket Progressoion passers.
As far as the success and it obviously hasn’t changed as of this year:

Overall, Prescott is 11th in EPA per dropback against the blitz (0.17). That rate is just a bit below his overall EPA per dropback (0.22), which ranks third. Prescott is beating the blitz this season and allowing plays to develop down the field. Through six weeks, Prescot has 12 completions of 20 or more yards against the blitz, which is second to only Derek Carr (15). Eight of Prescott’s 16 passing touchdowns this season have come on completions of 20 or more yards against the blitz. Those eight touchdowns match the combined number for Prescott from 2018-2020.

21% of Prescott’s attempts against the blitz have traveled at least 20 air yards, the second-highest rate in the league. That’s almost exclusively where his deep shots are coming. Against four or fewer pass rushers, only 5.9% of Prescott’s attempts have traveled 20 or more yards past the line of scrimmage, the lowest rate in the league.

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.c...tzes-mahomes-brady-prescott-jackson-2021/amp/

It’s a telling indicator of Dak in reality. It kills the idea his pass blocking is garbage the last few years, because the blocking against the blitz is allowing downfield plays to develop. But when teams rush 4 or less, he takes zero risks downfield and he’s DEAD LAST IN THE LEAGUE for 20 plus balls.

Of course this was from Oct 2021, but nothing in reality has changed. Like I said, Dak is the same QB in reality. He’s simply not a progression QB and his being risk averse against defenses when they rush 4, play more coverage and so on hides just how average ge is.

 

[Jake]

It may or may not surprise many Cowboys fans to learn that Dak Prescott is actually one of the most effective QBs against the blitz.

Per Sports Info Solutions, in the 2021 regular season, against the blitz, Dak was 103 of 165 passes for 1,171 yards, 23 touchdowns, with four picks, and a passer rating of 113.2 against the blitz. To put that touchdown total in perspective, Aaron Rodgers was second last year with scoring passes against the blitz — with 15. (Here’s a link to an article written before the WC game last Jan) https://sports.yahoo.com/tried-warn-49ers-don-t-231431436.html

In fact, in 2021, (other than Tampa Bay) the teams that blitzed us the most ended up losing to us. Blitzing the Cowboys offense was not usually an effective defensive strategy because our offense usually made them pay.

However, as we saw in the Denver game and many games thereafter, DCs began to realize that rushing 3-4 players and dropping everyone else into coverage was the way to slow the Cowboys offense.

In the six games we lost last year including the playoff game to SF, defensive teams blitzed less and dared us to run or throw short dink and dunk passes to move the ball. For the most part it was an effective strategy. Let’s look at the games we lost and what % our opponents blitzed: (credit to Bob Sturm for the stats)

• Tampa Bay- L 31-29- they actually blitzed 50% of the offensive plays we ran and we lost. But we racked up a ton of yards and arguably should have won the game if the damn kicker didn’t miss XP and a chip shot FG.
• Denver- L- 30-15- they only blitzed 14% of our snaps. Denver was one of the first teams to recognize that blitzing us was a mistake. They usually rushed 4 and dropped 7 into coverage. Our second worst offensive game of the year.
• Kansas City- L- 19-9- they only blitzed 25% of our snaps. Using mostly the same approach as Denver, they frustrated us all day using mostly a 4 man rush.
  
• Las Vegas- L- 36-33- Amazingly, the raiders only blitzed us 4% of the time. We racked up yards but had loads of mistakes and our defense stunk it up. But again, the low blitz numbers resulted in a L.
• Arizona- L- 25-22- the cards did blitz 35% of the time and was able to frustrate our offense completely until the 4th qtr.
• SF WC game- L- 23-16- the niners only blitzed 18% of the time. Their front 4 were able to put pressure on Dak and also stop the run.

The teams that blitzed us a lot- Carolina, Minnesota, WFT and the Eagles- all got beat consistently. We beat them all. Bottom line- we have made blitzes pay. Now the offense must find a way to make the cover 2 no blitz D pay.

When the Cowboys were running the ball early in the season it forced teams to commit more men closer to the line of scrimmage. We got run blitzes, etc., and it opened up the passing game.

As Zeke's knee worsened and the offensive line broke down, teams could play cover 2 and still control the running game. San Francisco controlled the game with their front four on defense.

Want to get the passing game going again, get the running game going again.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

Makes me laugh how people still believe in Dak Prescott. 6 years in and some refuse to accept the truth. 1 play off win with several loaded rosters in a mostly terrible division.

 

[khiladi]

Heineke, an average QB, against the blitz last year to substantiate what I said earlier:



2017 Dak Prescott, who was awful as a QB that year, was “number 1” rated QB against the blitz:

https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/pla...sley-jason-garrett-michael-gallup-allen-hurns

Teams generally try and blitz rookies, not veteran. Teams for example aren’t going to blitz Mahomes who was the second least blitzed QB per the article I reference. below, because guys like Brady and Mahomes destroy it. On the other hand, teams blitz QBs rookie QBs a lot. What is interests is teams blitz guys like Dak a lot throughout their careers.

This article from 2021 of October from Sharp says:



So even if Dak is ‘highly rated’ a lot of its is probably influenced by the amount of times teams blitz, meaning trying to bring pressure. While teams are way more selective against legit pocket Progressoion passers.
As far as the success and it obviously hasn’t changed as of this year:



https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.c...tzes-mahomes-brady-prescott-jackson-2021/amp/

It’s a telling indicator of Dak in reality. It kills the idea his pass blocking is garbage the last few years, because the blocking against the blitz is allowing downfield plays to develop. But when teams rush 4 or less, he takes zero risks downfield and he’s DEAD LAST IN THE LEAGUE for 20 plus balls.

Of course this was from Oct 2021, but nothing in reality has changed. Like I said, Dak is the same QB in reality. He’s simply not a progression QB and his being risk averse against defenses when they rush 4, play more coverage and so on hides just how average ge is.

Also I want to add, minus the hyperbole:

1. Dak IS a pocket passer, even if he’s not other worldly. He CAN throw from the pocket, but what he is NOT is a good progression pocket passer. He simply is way too slow processing the field. I think that’s what creates a lot of his accuracy issues.

2. His mechanics are inconsistent and he’s robotic at times. This starts happening when he starts feeling pocket pressure, even when it’s not there. This leads to many of his accuracy issues. When you look at a guy like Lamar Jackson, even with his limitation on certain throws, he CAN throw from the pocket or on the run, while his release is incredibly quick. This makes Lamar incredibly unique, plus unlike Dak, he’s nimble on the field and doesn’t simply “out muscle” defenders, the doesn’t bode well in the long run. Dak is choppy and robotic.

3. What has hidden Dak’s warts is how good the OL and RG have been, besides all the weapons he’s had and an offense that has been tailored to his skill-set for 7 years running to hide his warts. Guys like Herbert on the other hand, OCs put the games in their hands and design offenses on the assumption that the QB isn’t limited. In cases like Herbert, it’s normally the OC and the personnel that suck, which is why they don’t win for years.

4. When Dak has time to set his feet and make a certain sub-set of throws, he can be accurate which is often displayed on his deep throws. But if you put him in the situation a majority of QBs in the league face, then it’s a different story. But you also see the accuracy issues when he’s throwing to WRs that are open by the measure of NFL WRs and Dak leaves yards in the field, because the WRs have to adjust it are catching it behind them.

5. Like I said, he takes the checkdown often, meaning he plays it safe, for whatever the reason. If it’s because he’s slow at processing the field, expecting even further development is fool’s gold IMO. These are the things you really can’t change and when the personnel that surrounds him becomes less and less talents the warts get exposed more. You won’t see a Dak throwing like Winston in those situations, you’ll just see a very passive QB who will be very boring to watch and holding on to the ball too long.

He’s over-rated. He’s not a great QB. He’s basically a decent QB that made it to the NFL, of which plenty exist, who happened to fall in the best of circumstances to stay relevant and carve out a career for himself, of which there are few that ever had this fortune. And this has been at expense of fielding a SB competitive football team.

 

[Cboyfan4ever]

It may or may not surprise many Cowboys fans to learn that Dak Prescott is actually one of the most effective QBs against the blitz.

Per Sports Info Solutions, in the 2021 regular season, against the blitz, Dak was 103 of 165 passes for 1,171 yards, 23 touchdowns, with four picks, and a passer rating of 113.2 against the blitz. To put that touchdown total in perspective, Aaron Rodgers was second last year with scoring passes against the blitz — with 15. (Here’s a link to an article written before the WC game last Jan) https://sports.yahoo.com/tried-warn-49ers-don-t-231431436.html

In fact, in 2021, (other than Tampa Bay) the teams that blitzed us the most ended up losing to us. Blitzing the Cowboys offense was not usually an effective defensive strategy because our offense usually made them pay.

However, as we saw in the Denver game and many games thereafter, DCs began to realize that rushing 3-4 players and dropping everyone else into coverage was the way to slow the Cowboys offense.

In the six games we lost last year including the playoff game to SF, defensive teams blitzed less and dared us to run or throw short dink and dunk passes to move the ball. For the most part it was an effective strategy. Let’s look at the games we lost and what % our opponents blitzed: (credit to Bob Sturm for the stats)

• Tampa Bay- L 31-29- they actually blitzed 50% of the offensive plays we ran and we lost. But we racked up a ton of yards and arguably should have won the game if the damn kicker didn’t miss XP and a chip shot FG.
• Denver- L- 30-15- they only blitzed 14% of our snaps. Denver was one of the first teams to recognize that blitzing us was a mistake. They usually rushed 4 and dropped 7 into coverage. Our second worst offensive game of the year.
• Kansas City- L- 19-9- they only blitzed 25% of our snaps. Using mostly the same approach as Denver, they frustrated us all day using mostly a 4 man rush.
  
• Las Vegas- L- 36-33- Amazingly, the raiders only blitzed us 4% of the time. We racked up yards but had loads of mistakes and our defense stunk it up. But again, the low blitz numbers resulted in a L.
• Arizona- L- 25-22- the cards did blitz 35% of the time and was able to frustrate our offense completely until the 4th qtr.
• SF WC game- L- 23-16- the niners only blitzed 18% of the time. Their front 4 were able to put pressure on Dak and also stop the run.

The teams that blitzed us a lot- Carolina, Minnesota, WFT and the Eagles- all got beat consistently. We beat them all. Bottom line- we have made blitzes pay. Now the offense must find a way to make the cover 2 no blitz D pay.

KC and Mahomes seemed to eventually figure out the 2 deep cover 2 look, except for 2nd half of Cinn playoff game.Hopefully Kellen and Dak will too.A good start to that would be to effectively run the ball and pass of of that.

 

[jterrell]

No it's called goalpost moving, and you have it all the time. Dak had one of the lowest off target throw percentages in the NFL in 2021.. and that was DESPITE the so called slump down the stretch. People can make up all the narratives they want about the guy and they will all make zero sense when looking at the reality. This is like the people who claim he "sucks in the red zone" except his numbers in the red zone were insanely good.. Like 26 TDs to 1 interception good. He's even more deadly on 10 and in.. 21 TDs to ZERO INTs in close. But he "struggles to make tight window throws when the field gets compressed" according to the narratives. And again.. it's the narratives that matter.. to hell with the facts..

Dak's accuracy has been graded out above average every year of his career.
His middle depth is consistently in the top half of the league and generally in the top 10.
His deep passing has been top 5 twice and top 10 two other times. He is an elite deep passer. --Dallas added Tolbert and Washington because of this.
The only accuracy concerns he has are on passes less than 5 yards off the line of scrimmage which is really more an issue of execution because it is weighted heavily on screens/hitches.
He is a big ole boy and that swivel hips stuff and fake right throw quick left are kinda ugly.
But when he sets his feet or he is moving in one direction he is outstanding with accuracy up to about 50 yards out.