jterrell
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I think Dallas fans worried about RB are tilting at windmills in a way only Don Quixote could appreciate.
I could be wrong but I'd bet quite a lot on this one.
RB has quickly become one of the least valuable positions in the league. In part because the difference between good and average is so small. And even when talking great versus below average there's little correlation to actually winning games.
That's not to say running the ball effectively is worthless. It is to say running success is an equation where RB talent is only a small part. TEAMS run the ball well. VERY few players move around carrying success with them. There are simply too many components. And the rare few who are truly special, like Adrian Peterson, are not tied with overall success or winning. As good as AD is or LT was, it didn't equate to rings. I still recall Emmitt Smith being the first ever league's leading rusher to win a SB. Think of how crazy that is given the league's history as a smash mouth contest of wills? And there's a reason Emmitt says adding Murray doesn't make the Eagles favorites. Emmitt remembers being a "diamond surrounded by boo boo".
So I think INDIVIDUAL RB play is being insanely overrated here. Especially DeMarco Murrays. The reality is Murray is almost certainly not a top 5 back. Injury concerns, fumbling, lack of break away speed. All those are very real things. Just as real as Murray being the most effective RUSHING back in football in 2014.
What the numbers say.
Murray ran 392 times for 1845 yards in 2014. That's historically impressive.
But the truth is the 2014 Cowboys were EVEN MORE impressive as a rushing team.
All players other than Murray averaged 4.34 yard per carry. That's DOWN from Murray's 4.7 yards per carry but that total is also misleading. Because that counts sacks and QB sneaks against Dallas rushing totals.
All non-QBs rushing ypc? 5.35.
This is largely because Joseph Randle as the back up ran for 6.7 yards per carry.
I am not suggesting Randle could average 6.7 yard per carry through 400 carries. But how much drop off would he have for 200? He could be 2 yards per carry less and average what Murray did in 2014.
But that leaves 200 more carries and gets us to Darren McFadden.
He sucks, he's a bum, he lost his job....
OK. All those are pretty fair.
But keep in kind he was in Oakland, in a historically awful period for that franchise.
Why do the Cowboys like McFadden given his rushing totals and average are terrible?
Because Will McClay doesn't go to espn dot com or pro football reference to identify talent.
He looks for guys on film who have talent and could excel given the right set of circumstances.
Guys like Laurent Robinson, Rolando McClain. Guys who flash ability on tape. Guys who are likely to out-produce contracts.
McFadden study:
If you look at DMC you see a guy who was drafted by a truly awful team in 2008. He found much success (over 5.0 yards per carry two years in a row) in 2010 and 2011 on mediocre OAK teams and was considered that team's best talent in 2010. But he fell off the face of the earth with terrible averages after that and has never been a workhorse or 16 game guy. From the stat-sheet he looks a bit soft. ((So did Murray before 2014.)) Part of the reason is likely due to the situation in Oakland. He played a couple seasons with a pass happy Carson Palmer but he mostly had Jason Campbell, el busto himself JaMarcus Russell and other vagabond QBs. At WR he had... Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy.
PFR uses a stat called offensive simple rating system. OSRS. Oakland has been below average every year of DMC;s career except 2010 and 2011. In fact in the other seasons of DMC's career they were ranked bottom 5 for offense. When the offense was at least average, DMC ran for a cumulative 5.3 yards per carry.
Add in the Oakland win totals and you can see why comparing Oakland to this current Dallas team is apples and oranges. Why Oakland tried to save DMC a bit then why they moved on when another rebuilding job was in front of them.
So why can DMC succeed?
The biggest thing is talent. McFadden is one of the fastest RBs to ever start an NFL Game. He could lose a few steps and still outrun Murray or any other Cowboys back. He's also 6'2" and 210. So he's basically a slasher like Murray. But one with breakaway speed. He certainly showed vision and quickness and physicality coming out of the SEC as perhaps the highest rated RB since AD.
He's obviously no longer on a star contract and for a RB he is probably only one bad year away from retirement. He's playing for a contender for the first time in his career and it is the team he rooted for growing up in Arkansas. Not sure what other motivations one could have except maybe to prove all the people who say he sucks wrong.
I expect DMC to prove he is the most talented RB in Dallas this year and the stable of backs to prove Murray was just the guy in the right place at the right time last year. I don;t expect Dallas to rush it quite as many times as they did last year but I do expect them to remain a top 5 rushing team and an absolutely scary offense to deal with. With 4 RB all severely motivated to get Murray money and all that ESPN love, I think this team averages even more yards per carry.
I could be wrong but I'd bet quite a lot on this one.
RB has quickly become one of the least valuable positions in the league. In part because the difference between good and average is so small. And even when talking great versus below average there's little correlation to actually winning games.
That's not to say running the ball effectively is worthless. It is to say running success is an equation where RB talent is only a small part. TEAMS run the ball well. VERY few players move around carrying success with them. There are simply too many components. And the rare few who are truly special, like Adrian Peterson, are not tied with overall success or winning. As good as AD is or LT was, it didn't equate to rings. I still recall Emmitt Smith being the first ever league's leading rusher to win a SB. Think of how crazy that is given the league's history as a smash mouth contest of wills? And there's a reason Emmitt says adding Murray doesn't make the Eagles favorites. Emmitt remembers being a "diamond surrounded by boo boo".
So I think INDIVIDUAL RB play is being insanely overrated here. Especially DeMarco Murrays. The reality is Murray is almost certainly not a top 5 back. Injury concerns, fumbling, lack of break away speed. All those are very real things. Just as real as Murray being the most effective RUSHING back in football in 2014.
What the numbers say.
Murray ran 392 times for 1845 yards in 2014. That's historically impressive.
But the truth is the 2014 Cowboys were EVEN MORE impressive as a rushing team.
All players other than Murray averaged 4.34 yard per carry. That's DOWN from Murray's 4.7 yards per carry but that total is also misleading. Because that counts sacks and QB sneaks against Dallas rushing totals.
All non-QBs rushing ypc? 5.35.
This is largely because Joseph Randle as the back up ran for 6.7 yards per carry.
I am not suggesting Randle could average 6.7 yard per carry through 400 carries. But how much drop off would he have for 200? He could be 2 yards per carry less and average what Murray did in 2014.
But that leaves 200 more carries and gets us to Darren McFadden.
He sucks, he's a bum, he lost his job....
OK. All those are pretty fair.
But keep in kind he was in Oakland, in a historically awful period for that franchise.
Why do the Cowboys like McFadden given his rushing totals and average are terrible?
Because Will McClay doesn't go to espn dot com or pro football reference to identify talent.
He looks for guys on film who have talent and could excel given the right set of circumstances.
Guys like Laurent Robinson, Rolando McClain. Guys who flash ability on tape. Guys who are likely to out-produce contracts.
McFadden study:
If you look at DMC you see a guy who was drafted by a truly awful team in 2008. He found much success (over 5.0 yards per carry two years in a row) in 2010 and 2011 on mediocre OAK teams and was considered that team's best talent in 2010. But he fell off the face of the earth with terrible averages after that and has never been a workhorse or 16 game guy. From the stat-sheet he looks a bit soft. ((So did Murray before 2014.)) Part of the reason is likely due to the situation in Oakland. He played a couple seasons with a pass happy Carson Palmer but he mostly had Jason Campbell, el busto himself JaMarcus Russell and other vagabond QBs. At WR he had... Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy.
PFR uses a stat called offensive simple rating system. OSRS. Oakland has been below average every year of DMC;s career except 2010 and 2011. In fact in the other seasons of DMC's career they were ranked bottom 5 for offense. When the offense was at least average, DMC ran for a cumulative 5.3 yards per carry.
Add in the Oakland win totals and you can see why comparing Oakland to this current Dallas team is apples and oranges. Why Oakland tried to save DMC a bit then why they moved on when another rebuilding job was in front of them.
So why can DMC succeed?
The biggest thing is talent. McFadden is one of the fastest RBs to ever start an NFL Game. He could lose a few steps and still outrun Murray or any other Cowboys back. He's also 6'2" and 210. So he's basically a slasher like Murray. But one with breakaway speed. He certainly showed vision and quickness and physicality coming out of the SEC as perhaps the highest rated RB since AD.
He's obviously no longer on a star contract and for a RB he is probably only one bad year away from retirement. He's playing for a contender for the first time in his career and it is the team he rooted for growing up in Arkansas. Not sure what other motivations one could have except maybe to prove all the people who say he sucks wrong.
I expect DMC to prove he is the most talented RB in Dallas this year and the stable of backs to prove Murray was just the guy in the right place at the right time last year. I don;t expect Dallas to rush it quite as many times as they did last year but I do expect them to remain a top 5 rushing team and an absolutely scary offense to deal with. With 4 RB all severely motivated to get Murray money and all that ESPN love, I think this team averages even more yards per carry.
