Why Jake Ferguson will be the Starting TE1 in 2023 (and Schultz is gone)

[Jumbo075]

There is an advanced analytics statistic call EPA, or Expected Points Added. In 2023, based on receivers who were targets on the Cowboys roster, here is the breakdown of the EPA for each player who caught a pass for the Cowboys during the 2022 season.

Source: https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/202...mb-dak-prescott-michael-gallup-dalton-schultz

Only 5 receivers on the Cowboys roster in 2022 had a positive EPA:

• WR CeeDee Lamb - EPA 84.8 points which was 4th overall for receivers in the entire NFL. Lamb is a top-5 receiver in the NFL, and the Cowboys are fortunate to have him on the team. He is earning the number 88.

It's a huge drop off to the next receiver on the list, which really means that Prescott's only reliable receiver in 2022 was Lamb. Of course, that doesn't automatically excuse all of Dak's interceptions last year, but it does provide some explanation of why the normally reliable Prescott threw so many picks last year.

• WR T.Y. Hilton - EPA 11.0 points. Although he played only a few games at the end of the season, Hilton was the only other Cowboys wide receiver with a positive EPA
• TE Jake Ferguson - EPA - 8 points. This is certainly not great, but he's the only TE with a positive EPA for the Cowboys, and far and away had the best EPA in the tight end room. This was on limited opportunities. As the starter in 2023, his EPA is expected to rise.
• RB Tony Pollard - EPA 7 points. This doesn't include his EPA as a runner, but Pollard was the 4th best receiver on the Cowboys, even though he plays RB
• RB Malik Davis - EPA 6 points. Again, with limited opportunities, Davis produced as a receiver, which is why many see him as the odds on favorite to win the RB2 job in 2023

Three (3) recievers had basically a Zero (0 points) EPA, which while not great, at least they weren't negative in 2022: TE Sean McKeon and WRs Noah Brown and Simi Fehoko. Statistically, Brown was the 2nd best WR on the Cowboys roster last year, which is why Houston was willing to sign him during the offseason. Having spent 7 years on the Cowboys roster, the reality is he was a very good use of their 2016 7th round pick.

There are 8 other players who caught passes during games in 2022. All are slightly negative, but not terrible when it come to the EPA statistic.

• TE Peyton Hendershot, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR James Washington, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR Kavontae Turpin, minus 1.0 EPA
• WR Jalen Tolbert, minus 2.0 EPA
• WR Michael Gallup, minus 2.5 EPA

None of the bottom 3 receivers in EPA are still on the team, including two former starters:

• RB Zeke Elliot - minus 5.0 EPA
• WR Dennis Houston - minus 8.0 EPA
• TE Dalton Schultz - minus 9.0 EPA

Yes, that's right folks. Dalton Schultz costs the Cowboys points by stepping onto the field, and so did Zeke when it comes to receiving passes. That is a big reason why Schultz wasn't resigned. And given that Ferguson was the 3rd best receiver on the team in 2022 as a rookie, that is why he'll be the starter to begin the 2023 season. Of course, Ferguson's EPA, while positive, wasn't anything special; so, Schoonmaker will have every opportunity to leapfrog him on the depth chart if he plays well as a rookie.

EDIT: WR Brandin Cooks is typically around the top 25% in EPA in the NFL, and has approached top 10% on a couple of occasions. He is a tremendous improvement for the Cowboys receivers.

 

[75boyz]

There is an advanced analytics statistic call EPA, or Expected Points Added. In 2023, based on receivers who were targets on the Cowboys roster, here is the breakdown of the EPA for each player who caught a pass for the Cowboys during the 2022 season.

Source: https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/202...mb-dak-prescott-michael-gallup-dalton-schultz

Only 5 receivers on the Cowboys roster in 2022 had a positive EPA:

• WR CeeDee Lamb - EPA 84.8 points which was 4th overall for receivers in the entire NFL. Lamb is a top-5 receiver in the NFL, and the Cowboys are fortunate to have him on the team. He is earning the number 88.

It's a huge drop off to the next receiver on the list, which really means that Prescott's only reliable receiver in 2022 was Lamb. Of course, that doesn't automatically excuse all of Dak's interceptions last year, but it does provide some explanation of why the normally reliable Prescott threw so many picks last year.

• WR T.Y. Hilton - EPA 11.0 points. Although he played only a few games at the end of the season, Hilton was the only other Cowboys wide receiver with a positive EPA
• TE Jake Ferguson - EPA - 8 points. This is certainly not great, but he's the only TE with a positive EPA for the Cowboys, and far and away had the best EPA in the tight end room. This was on limited opportunities. As the starter in 2023, his EPA is expected to rise.
• RB Tony Pollard - EPA 7 points. This doesn't include his EPA as a runner, but Pollard was the 4th best receiver on the Cowboys, even though he plays RB
• RB Malik Davis - EPA 6 points. Again, with limited opportunities, Davis produced as a receiver, which is why many see him as the odds on favorite to win the RB2 job in 2023

Three (3) recievers had basically a Zero (0 points) EPA, which while not great, at least they weren't negative in 2022: TE Sean McKeon and WRs Noah Brown and Simi Fehoko. Statistically, Brown was the 2nd best WR on the Cowboys roster last year, which is why Houston was willing to sign him during the offseason. Having spent 7 years on the Cowboys roster, the reality is he was a very good use of their 2016 7th round pick.

There are 8 other players who caught passes during games in 2022. All are slightly negative, but not terrible when it come to the EPA statistic.

• TE Peyton Hendershot, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR James Washington, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR Kavontae Turpin, minus 1.0 EPA
• WR Jalen Tolbert, minus 2.0 EPA
• WR Michael Gallup, minus 2.5 EPA

None of the bottom 3 receivers in EPA are still on the team, including two former starters:

• RB Zeke Elliot - minus 5.0 EPA
• WR Dennis Houston - minus 8.0 EPA
• TE Dalton Schultz - minus 9.0 EPA

Yes, that's right folks. Dalton Schultz costs the Cowboys points by stepping onto the field, and so did Zeke when it comes to receiving passes. That is a big reason why Schultz wasn't resigned. And given that Ferguson was the 3rd best receiver on the team in 2022 as a rookie, that is why he'll be the starter to begin the 2023 season. Of course, Ferguson's EPA, while positive, wasn't anything special; so, Schoonmaker will have every opportunity to leapfrog him on the depth chart if he plays well as a rookie.

EDIT: WR Brandin Cooks is typically around the top 25% in EPA in the NFL, and has approached top 10% on a couple of occasions. He is a tremendous improvement for the Cowboys receivers.

Yeah,
I can easily see this as well. Did not and still do not see some huge talent disparity of Schoonmaker over Ferguson. So, an older, second round oft injured blocking TE phenom?
It was a hard sell for me to swallow on draft day and still is.

I just hope Schoon is not another addition to the long list of second round duds they've gone through over the years. Fingers crossed.

jmo

 

[shabazz]

Man, I can see the Niners defense already having nightmares over this.

 

[stilltheguru]

Ferguson stans are hilarious and most are so agenda driven

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Ferguson had 19 receptions last season, so that's an awfully small sample size. He does show promise though.

I can't speak to those statistics in the OP about Schultz. It's surprising, because he is widely viewed as one of the top receiving TE's in the NFL. Dallas tried to re-sign Schultz of course, but decided to spend that money elsewhere- creating an immediate need that forced them to use a second round pick to fill. Hopefully Schoon will prove to be an upgrade over time. I doubt he will be an upgrade in his rookie year.

BTW, CBS just ranked Schultz as #9 in the league, and had this to say:

"Dalton Schultz is still in Texas, but no longer has the Cowboys star on the side of his helmet after inking a deal with the Texans in free agency. While his final season in Dallas wasn't as productive as his prior two campaigns, he's still among the top pass-catching tight ends in the league and should be a solid outlet for No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud. He also is an underrated blocker, grading as the fifth-best run-blocking tight end in the league in 2022, per Pro Football Focus."

 

[TequilaCowboy]

Agree he will be the starter at TE in 2023, but expect the Cowboys to use a lot of two TE formations with not much blocking ability from their backs. Schoon is a big question in my mind based on his foot problems and being a rookie. I don't expect much from him this year.

 

[AmericasTeam81]

He’s definitely a difference maker

 

[Kingofholland]

Whoever is the best player should start, but I think this is going to be a regular rotation of TEs. They may each have similar targets and numbers by the end of the season. No one may catch more than 40 balls. You could see a 30, 30, 20 catch type production each and frankly that's OK as long as they're efficient targets.

 

[Bobhaze]

There is an advanced analytics statistic call EPA, or Expected Points Added. In 2023, based on receivers who were targets on the Cowboys roster, here is the breakdown of the EPA for each player who caught a pass for the Cowboys during the 2022 season.

Source: https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/202...mb-dak-prescott-michael-gallup-dalton-schultz

Only 5 receivers on the Cowboys roster in 2022 had a positive EPA:

• WR CeeDee Lamb - EPA 84.8 points which was 4th overall for receivers in the entire NFL. Lamb is a top-5 receiver in the NFL, and the Cowboys are fortunate to have him on the team. He is earning the number 88.

It's a huge drop off to the next receiver on the list, which really means that Prescott's only reliable receiver in 2022 was Lamb. Of course, that doesn't automatically excuse all of Dak's interceptions last year, but it does provide some explanation of why the normally reliable Prescott threw so many picks last year.

• WR T.Y. Hilton - EPA 11.0 points. Although he played only a few games at the end of the season, Hilton was the only other Cowboys wide receiver with a positive EPA
• TE Jake Ferguson - EPA - 8 points. This is certainly not great, but he's the only TE with a positive EPA for the Cowboys, and far and away had the best EPA in the tight end room. This was on limited opportunities. As the starter in 2023, his EPA is expected to rise.
• RB Tony Pollard - EPA 7 points. This doesn't include his EPA as a runner, but Pollard was the 4th best receiver on the Cowboys, even though he plays RB
• RB Malik Davis - EPA 6 points. Again, with limited opportunities, Davis produced as a receiver, which is why many see him as the odds on favorite to win the RB2 job in 2023

Three (3) recievers had basically a Zero (0 points) EPA, which while not great, at least they weren't negative in 2022: TE Sean McKeon and WRs Noah Brown and Simi Fehoko. Statistically, Brown was the 2nd best WR on the Cowboys roster last year, which is why Houston was willing to sign him during the offseason. Having spent 7 years on the Cowboys roster, the reality is he was a very good use of their 2016 7th round pick.

There are 8 other players who caught passes during games in 2022. All are slightly negative, but not terrible when it come to the EPA statistic.

• TE Peyton Hendershot, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR James Washington, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR Kavontae Turpin, minus 1.0 EPA
• WR Jalen Tolbert, minus 2.0 EPA
• WR Michael Gallup, minus 2.5 EPA

None of the bottom 3 receivers in EPA are still on the team, including two former starters:

• RB Zeke Elliot - minus 5.0 EPA
• WR Dennis Houston - minus 8.0 EPA
• TE Dalton Schultz - minus 9.0 EPA

Yes, that's right folks. Dalton Schultz costs the Cowboys points by stepping onto the field, and so did Zeke when it comes to receiving passes. That is a big reason why Schultz wasn't resigned. And given that Ferguson was the 3rd best receiver on the team in 2022 as a rookie, that is why he'll be the starter to begin the 2023 season. Of course, Ferguson's EPA, while positive, wasn't anything special; so, Schoonmaker will have every opportunity to leapfrog him on the depth chart if he plays well as a rookie.

EDIT: WR Brandin Cooks is typically around the top 25% in EPA in the NFL, and has approached top 10% on a couple of occasions. He is a tremendous improvement for the Cowboys receivers.

With the additions of Jake Ferguson in the ‘22 draft, Brandin Cooks in this spring’s trade, and the acquisition of Luke Schoonmaker in this year’s draft, the Cowboys have upgraded their passing weaponry this off-season.

With Cooks alongside Lamb and Gallup, defenses will be making tough choices in coverage, and add in the young TE tandem of Ferguson and Schoonmaker- this is as legit a group of receiving weapons as we’ve seen decades.

 

[Jumbo075]

With the additions of Jake Ferguson in the ‘22 draft, Brandin Cooks in this spring’s trade, and the acquisition of Luke Schoonmaker in this year’s draft, the Cowboys have upgraded their passing weaponry this off-season.

With Cooks alongside Lamb and Gallup, defenses will be making tough choices in coverage, and add in the young TE tandem of Ferguson and Schoonmaker- this is as legit a group of receiving weapons as we’ve seen decades.

I don't know about that Mr. Haze. For 5 straight seasons the Cowboys had Dez Bryant in his prime, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley and Jason Witten as their top 4 receiving threats to go along with Demarco Murray and then Ezekiel Elliott leading the league in rushing yards in 3 out of 5 seasons. They also had prime Oline talent with TFred, Tyron and Zack from 2014 - 2018.

 

[Bobhaze]

I don't know about that Mr. Haze. For 5 straight seasons the Cowboys had Dez Bryant in his prime, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley and Jason Witten as their top 4 receiving threats to go along with Demarco Murray and then Ezekiel Elliott leading the league in rushing yards in 3 out of 5 seasons. They also had prime Oline talent with TFred, Tyron and Zack from 2014 - 2018.

That was a great group for sure. But I tend to judge talent based on what they accomplish as a team more than their stats. Not knocking good stats or those players. Loved them. But the bottom line is how talent translates into playoff wins. The Dez, T-Will, Beasley, Murray group collectively won one playoff game.

It’s not all on them of course but they are not in my book in the top 5 stud offensive groups in our history. Witten is a HOFer and that speaks for itself. But even he was only part of 3 playoff wins.

So when I talk about the potential of this year’s group, I will ultimately judge them by how their collective presence on the field contributes to playoff wins.

 

[Jake]

No offense to anyone, but for the love of god bring on football season. These months of talking about nothing...ugh. Double ugh. Bring on September.

 

[buybuydandavis]

There is an advanced analytics statistic call EPA, or Expected Points Added. In 2023, based on receivers who were targets on the Cowboys roster, here is the breakdown of the EPA for each player who caught a pass for the Cowboys during the 2022 season.

Source: https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/202...mb-dak-prescott-michael-gallup-dalton-schultz

Only 5 receivers on the Cowboys roster in 2022 had a positive EPA:

• WR CeeDee Lamb - EPA 84.8 points which was 4th overall for receivers in the entire NFL. Lamb is a top-5 receiver in the NFL, and the Cowboys are fortunate to have him on the team. He is earning the number 88.

It's a huge drop off to the next receiver on the list, which really means that Prescott's only reliable receiver in 2022 was Lamb. Of course, that doesn't automatically excuse all of Dak's interceptions last year, but it does provide some explanation of why the normally reliable Prescott threw so many picks last year.

• WR T.Y. Hilton - EPA 11.0 points. Although he played only a few games at the end of the season, Hilton was the only other Cowboys wide receiver with a positive EPA
• TE Jake Ferguson - EPA - 8 points. This is certainly not great, but he's the only TE with a positive EPA for the Cowboys, and far and away had the best EPA in the tight end room. This was on limited opportunities. As the starter in 2023, his EPA is expected to rise.
• RB Tony Pollard - EPA 7 points. This doesn't include his EPA as a runner, but Pollard was the 4th best receiver on the Cowboys, even though he plays RB
• RB Malik Davis - EPA 6 points. Again, with limited opportunities, Davis produced as a receiver, which is why many see him as the odds on favorite to win the RB2 job in 2023

Three (3) recievers had basically a Zero (0 points) EPA, which while not great, at least they weren't negative in 2022: TE Sean McKeon and WRs Noah Brown and Simi Fehoko. Statistically, Brown was the 2nd best WR on the Cowboys roster last year, which is why Houston was willing to sign him during the offseason. Having spent 7 years on the Cowboys roster, the reality is he was a very good use of their 2016 7th round pick.

There are 8 other players who caught passes during games in 2022. All are slightly negative, but not terrible when it come to the EPA statistic.

• TE Peyton Hendershot, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR James Washington, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR Kavontae Turpin, minus 1.0 EPA
• WR Jalen Tolbert, minus 2.0 EPA
• WR Michael Gallup, minus 2.5 EPA

None of the bottom 3 receivers in EPA are still on the team, including two former starters:

• RB Zeke Elliot - minus 5.0 EPA
• WR Dennis Houston - minus 8.0 EPA
• TE Dalton Schultz - minus 9.0 EPA

Yes, that's right folks. Dalton Schultz costs the Cowboys points by stepping onto the field, and so did Zeke when it comes to receiving passes. That is a big reason why Schultz wasn't resigned. And given that Ferguson was the 3rd best receiver on the team in 2022 as a rookie, that is why he'll be the starter to begin the 2023 season. Of course, Ferguson's EPA, while positive, wasn't anything special; so, Schoonmaker will have every opportunity to leapfrog him on the depth chart if he plays well as a rookie.

EDIT: WR Brandin Cooks is typically around the top 25% in EPA in the NFL, and has approached top 10% on a couple of occasions. He is a tremendous improvement for the Cowboys receivers.

Article:​

Nobody else is on the positive side of the spectrum, and perhaps even more frustratingly, some big investments are hanging out way near the bottom.​

Zeke, Schulz, and Gallup all above 7 figures in cap, all net negative for EPA.

Modesty forbids me from mentioning *who*, but *some* of us were against all those contracts.

The real fun graphic would be Cap Hit vs. EPA.

Shoulda offered another year to Hilton. I like Cook, but Hilton was just great value. He *produced* when given a chance, and cost *nothing*.

Nothing in that EPA data surprised me. I do so love being right.

With Ferguson, I wanted us to run with him as our starter this year. Didn't need to spend a 2nd on a TE.

Hope I'm *not* right about us getting humped by not improving our depth on the oline in the draft.
Hope that they're keeping in touch with Jason Peters. I would have just signed him. He was good at multiple positions. Could probably plug him in anywhere but C. For short term depth for cheap, he's ideal.

 

[Proof]

Man, I can see the Niners defense already having nightmares over this.

w/ cooks in the fold i doubt you see fred warner carry ceedee 30 yards downfield

 

[Stash]

The EPA statistics don’t have much value for individual positions other than quarterback. They’re mainly a team statistic.

“EPA does have its limitations, most notably in its ability to measure individual performance. EPA analysis works for QBs because that position dictates so much of the game. However, football is a team sport, and attributing EPA to other positions like running-back or wide-receiver typically does not yield as much signal. EPA can’t distinguish between a well run route and a well thrown ball.”

Here’s a comprehensive explanation:

https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/e...ects the dots,value for every individual play.

 

[john van brocklin]

There is an advanced analytics statistic call EPA, or Expected Points Added. In 2023, based on receivers who were targets on the Cowboys roster, here is the breakdown of the EPA for each player who caught a pass for the Cowboys during the 2022 season.

Source: https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/202...mb-dak-prescott-michael-gallup-dalton-schultz

Only 5 receivers on the Cowboys roster in 2022 had a positive EPA:

• WR CeeDee Lamb - EPA 84.8 points which was 4th overall for receivers in the entire NFL. Lamb is a top-5 receiver in the NFL, and the Cowboys are fortunate to have him on the team. He is earning the number 88.

It's a huge drop off to the next receiver on the list, which really means that Prescott's only reliable receiver in 2022 was Lamb. Of course, that doesn't automatically excuse all of Dak's interceptions last year, but it does provide some explanation of why the normally reliable Prescott threw so many picks last year.

• WR T.Y. Hilton - EPA 11.0 points. Although he played only a few games at the end of the season, Hilton was the only other Cowboys wide receiver with a positive EPA
• TE Jake Ferguson - EPA - 8 points. This is certainly not great, but he's the only TE with a positive EPA for the Cowboys, and far and away had the best EPA in the tight end room. This was on limited opportunities. As the starter in 2023, his EPA is expected to rise.
• RB Tony Pollard - EPA 7 points. This doesn't include his EPA as a runner, but Pollard was the 4th best receiver on the Cowboys, even though he plays RB
• RB Malik Davis - EPA 6 points. Again, with limited opportunities, Davis produced as a receiver, which is why many see him as the odds on favorite to win the RB2 job in 2023

Three (3) recievers had basically a Zero (0 points) EPA, which while not great, at least they weren't negative in 2022: TE Sean McKeon and WRs Noah Brown and Simi Fehoko. Statistically, Brown was the 2nd best WR on the Cowboys roster last year, which is why Houston was willing to sign him during the offseason. Having spent 7 years on the Cowboys roster, the reality is he was a very good use of their 2016 7th round pick.

There are 8 other players who caught passes during games in 2022. All are slightly negative, but not terrible when it come to the EPA statistic.

• TE Peyton Hendershot, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR James Washington, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR Kavontae Turpin, minus 1.0 EPA
• WR Jalen Tolbert, minus 2.0 EPA
• WR Michael Gallup, minus 2.5 EPA

None of the bottom 3 receivers in EPA are still on the team, including two former starters:

• RB Zeke Elliot - minus 5.0 EPA
• WR Dennis Houston - minus 8.0 EPA
• TE Dalton Schultz - minus 9.0 EPA

Yes, that's right folks. Dalton Schultz costs the Cowboys points by stepping onto the field, and so did Zeke when it comes to receiving passes. That is a big reason why Schultz wasn't resigned. And given that Ferguson was the 3rd best receiver on the team in 2022 as a rookie, that is why he'll be the starter to begin the 2023 season. Of course, Ferguson's EPA, while positive, wasn't anything special; so, Schoonmaker will have every opportunity to leapfrog him on the depth chart if he plays well as a rookie.

EDIT: WR Brandin Cooks is typically around the top 25% in EPA in the NFL, and has approached top 10% on a couple of occasions. He is a tremendous improvement for the Cowboys receivers.

Love the info!
Thanks for posting!

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

The EPA statistics don’t have much value for individual positions other than quarterback. They’re mainly a team statistic.

“EPA does have its limitations, most notably in its ability to measure individual performance. EPA analysis works for QBs because that position dictates so much of the game. However, football is a team sport, and attributing EPA to other positions like running-back or wide-receiver typically does not yield as much signal. EPA can’t distinguish between a well run route and a well thrown ball.”

Here’s a comprehensive explanation:

https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/expected-points-added-epa-nfl/#:~:text=EPA simply connects the dots,value for every individual play.

Good explanation!

 

[KJJ]

If Ferguson ends up the starter, we made yet another mistake in the second round. However, battling plantar fasciitis could limit Schoonmaker.

 

[quickccc]

- Jake will be the starting TE Game 1, because he has the best combination of block/catch skills along with game experience.

- Schoon is pure rookie that still has to learn the NFL ropes, gain a rapport with the QB, and who knows what the foot problems could become.

- Hendershot has the vertical downfield seam ability they seem to want with their receiving TEs, but he's still a little light in the azz with in-line blocking and his
game leads to costly flags, drops and fumbles at this early point.

- McKeon gets his very limited and rare catches off roll outs and waggles (a design like most of our TEs) - his forte and value comes in blocking.
.both on-line and occasionally as H-Back in backfield.

 

[Diehardblues]

With the additions of Jake Ferguson in the ‘22 draft, Brandin Cooks in this spring’s trade, and the acquisition of Luke Schoonmaker in this year’s draft, the Cowboys have upgraded their passing weaponry this off-season.

With Cooks alongside Lamb and Gallup, defenses will be making tough choices in coverage, and add in the young TE tandem of Ferguson and Schoonmaker- this is as legit a group of receiving weapons as we’ve seen decades.

All assembled for our new Texas Coast offense under new OC and assuming play-calling HC which should be lighting it up thru the air with quite an assault led by our popular QB. What could go wrong ?