Why Jake Ferguson will be the Starting TE1 in 2023 (and Schultz is gone)

[Diehardblues]

Can we call Ferguson “ Fergi” ?

 

[Hennessy_King]

There is an advanced analytics statistic call EPA, or Expected Points Added. In 2023, based on receivers who were targets on the Cowboys roster, here is the breakdown of the EPA for each player who caught a pass for the Cowboys during the 2022 season.

Source: https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/202...mb-dak-prescott-michael-gallup-dalton-schultz

Only 5 receivers on the Cowboys roster in 2022 had a positive EPA:

• WR CeeDee Lamb - EPA 84.8 points which was 4th overall for receivers in the entire NFL. Lamb is a top-5 receiver in the NFL, and the Cowboys are fortunate to have him on the team. He is earning the number 88.

It's a huge drop off to the next receiver on the list, which really means that Prescott's only reliable receiver in 2022 was Lamb. Of course, that doesn't automatically excuse all of Dak's interceptions last year, but it does provide some explanation of why the normally reliable Prescott threw so many picks last year.

• WR T.Y. Hilton - EPA 11.0 points. Although he played only a few games at the end of the season, Hilton was the only other Cowboys wide receiver with a positive EPA
• TE Jake Ferguson - EPA - 8 points. This is certainly not great, but he's the only TE with a positive EPA for the Cowboys, and far and away had the best EPA in the tight end room. This was on limited opportunities. As the starter in 2023, his EPA is expected to rise.
• RB Tony Pollard - EPA 7 points. This doesn't include his EPA as a runner, but Pollard was the 4th best receiver on the Cowboys, even though he plays RB
• RB Malik Davis - EPA 6 points. Again, with limited opportunities, Davis produced as a receiver, which is why many see him as the odds on favorite to win the RB2 job in 2023

Three (3) recievers had basically a Zero (0 points) EPA, which while not great, at least they weren't negative in 2022: TE Sean McKeon and WRs Noah Brown and Simi Fehoko. Statistically, Brown was the 2nd best WR on the Cowboys roster last year, which is why Houston was willing to sign him during the offseason. Having spent 7 years on the Cowboys roster, the reality is he was a very good use of their 2016 7th round pick.

There are 8 other players who caught passes during games in 2022. All are slightly negative, but not terrible when it come to the EPA statistic.

• TE Peyton Hendershot, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR James Washington, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR Kavontae Turpin, minus 1.0 EPA
• WR Jalen Tolbert, minus 2.0 EPA
• WR Michael Gallup, minus 2.5 EPA

None of the bottom 3 receivers in EPA are still on the team, including two former starters:

• RB Zeke Elliot - minus 5.0 EPA
• WR Dennis Houston - minus 8.0 EPA
• TE Dalton Schultz - minus 9.0 EPA

Yes, that's right folks. Dalton Schultz costs the Cowboys points by stepping onto the field, and so did Zeke when it comes to receiving passes. That is a big reason why Schultz wasn't resigned. And given that Ferguson was the 3rd best receiver on the team in 2022 as a rookie, that is why he'll be the starter to begin the 2023 season. Of course, Ferguson's EPA, while positive, wasn't anything special; so, Schoonmaker will have every opportunity to leapfrog him on the depth chart if he plays well as a rookie.

EDIT: WR Brandin Cooks is typically around the top 25% in EPA in the NFL, and has approached top 10% on a couple of occasions. He is a tremendous improvement for the Cowboys receivers.

I've been trying to tell the dummies on here about ferguson starting and that schoon bummer was a waste of a pick.

 

[Hennessy_King]

Can we call Ferguson “ Fergi” ?

no

 

[Diehardblues]

no

Why not? Lol

 

[America's Cowboy]

There is an advanced analytics statistic call EPA, or Expected Points Added. In 2023, based on receivers who were targets on the Cowboys roster, here is the breakdown of the EPA for each player who caught a pass for the Cowboys during the 2022 season.

Source: https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/202...mb-dak-prescott-michael-gallup-dalton-schultz

Only 5 receivers on the Cowboys roster in 2022 had a positive EPA:

• WR CeeDee Lamb - EPA 84.8 points which was 4th overall for receivers in the entire NFL. Lamb is a top-5 receiver in the NFL, and the Cowboys are fortunate to have him on the team. He is earning the number 88.

It's a huge drop off to the next receiver on the list, which really means that Prescott's only reliable receiver in 2022 was Lamb. Of course, that doesn't automatically excuse all of Dak's interceptions last year, but it does provide some explanation of why the normally reliable Prescott threw so many picks last year.

• WR T.Y. Hilton - EPA 11.0 points. Although he played only a few games at the end of the season, Hilton was the only other Cowboys wide receiver with a positive EPA
• TE Jake Ferguson - EPA - 8 points. This is certainly not great, but he's the only TE with a positive EPA for the Cowboys, and far and away had the best EPA in the tight end room. This was on limited opportunities. As the starter in 2023, his EPA is expected to rise.
• RB Tony Pollard - EPA 7 points. This doesn't include his EPA as a runner, but Pollard was the 4th best receiver on the Cowboys, even though he plays RB
• RB Malik Davis - EPA 6 points. Again, with limited opportunities, Davis produced as a receiver, which is why many see him as the odds on favorite to win the RB2 job in 2023

Three (3) recievers had basically a Zero (0 points) EPA, which while not great, at least they weren't negative in 2022: TE Sean McKeon and WRs Noah Brown and Simi Fehoko. Statistically, Brown was the 2nd best WR on the Cowboys roster last year, which is why Houston was willing to sign him during the offseason. Having spent 7 years on the Cowboys roster, the reality is he was a very good use of their 2016 7th round pick.

There are 8 other players who caught passes during games in 2022. All are slightly negative, but not terrible when it come to the EPA statistic.

• TE Peyton Hendershot, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR James Washington, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR Kavontae Turpin, minus 1.0 EPA
• WR Jalen Tolbert, minus 2.0 EPA
• WR Michael Gallup, minus 2.5 EPA

None of the bottom 3 receivers in EPA are still on the team, including two former starters:

• RB Zeke Elliot - minus 5.0 EPA
• WR Dennis Houston - minus 8.0 EPA
• TE Dalton Schultz - minus 9.0 EPA

Yes, that's right folks. Dalton Schultz costs the Cowboys points by stepping onto the field, and so did Zeke when it comes to receiving passes. That is a big reason why Schultz wasn't resigned. And given that Ferguson was the 3rd best receiver on the team in 2022 as a rookie, that is why he'll be the starter to begin the 2023 season. Of course, Ferguson's EPA, while positive, wasn't anything special; so, Schoonmaker will have every opportunity to leapfrog him on the depth chart if he plays well as a rookie.

EDIT: WR Brandin Cooks is typically around the top 25% in EPA in the NFL, and has approached top 10% on a couple of occasions. He is a tremendous improvement for the Cowboys receivers.

Awesome stuff, @Jumbo075 ! Thanks for sharing. Looks like Dak should have a much better receiving group to pass to in 2023. That's great news for this team.

 

[baltcowboy]

Did Schoonmaker get his foot amputated in the last two weeks? Ferguson is important know doubt but in the multiple tight end sets but Schoon is expected to be tight end one.

 

[CouchCoach]

Between Pollard and Vaughn, Lamb, Cooks and Gallup and the 3 TE's, there will be plenty of targets. The key is giving the QB time to find them.

 

[DogFace]

Ferguson stans are hilarious and most are so agenda driven

I’ve missed this fight. Tell me why they are hilarious and agenda driven. Please

 

[Hennessy_King]

Ferguson stans are hilarious and most are so agenda driven

whats the agenda. ferguson was better than shultz last year but we had to make sure our overpaid TE was on the field. schoon is a smaller tackle with zero playmaking in the receiving game

 

[xwalker]

There is an advanced analytics statistic call EPA, or Expected Points Added. In 2023, based on receivers who were targets on the Cowboys roster, here is the breakdown of the EPA for each player who caught a pass for the Cowboys during the 2022 season.

Source: https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/202...mb-dak-prescott-michael-gallup-dalton-schultz

Only 5 receivers on the Cowboys roster in 2022 had a positive EPA:

• WR CeeDee Lamb - EPA 84.8 points which was 4th overall for receivers in the entire NFL. Lamb is a top-5 receiver in the NFL, and the Cowboys are fortunate to have him on the team. He is earning the number 88.

It's a huge drop off to the next receiver on the list, which really means that Prescott's only reliable receiver in 2022 was Lamb. Of course, that doesn't automatically excuse all of Dak's interceptions last year, but it does provide some explanation of why the normally reliable Prescott threw so many picks last year.

• WR T.Y. Hilton - EPA 11.0 points. Although he played only a few games at the end of the season, Hilton was the only other Cowboys wide receiver with a positive EPA
• TE Jake Ferguson - EPA - 8 points. This is certainly not great, but he's the only TE with a positive EPA for the Cowboys, and far and away had the best EPA in the tight end room. This was on limited opportunities. As the starter in 2023, his EPA is expected to rise.
• RB Tony Pollard - EPA 7 points. This doesn't include his EPA as a runner, but Pollard was the 4th best receiver on the Cowboys, even though he plays RB
• RB Malik Davis - EPA 6 points. Again, with limited opportunities, Davis produced as a receiver, which is why many see him as the odds on favorite to win the RB2 job in 2023

Three (3) recievers had basically a Zero (0 points) EPA, which while not great, at least they weren't negative in 2022: TE Sean McKeon and WRs Noah Brown and Simi Fehoko. Statistically, Brown was the 2nd best WR on the Cowboys roster last year, which is why Houston was willing to sign him during the offseason. Having spent 7 years on the Cowboys roster, the reality is he was a very good use of their 2016 7th round pick.

There are 8 other players who caught passes during games in 2022. All are slightly negative, but not terrible when it come to the EPA statistic.

• TE Peyton Hendershot, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR James Washington, minus 0.5 EPA
• WR Kavontae Turpin, minus 1.0 EPA
• WR Jalen Tolbert, minus 2.0 EPA
• WR Michael Gallup, minus 2.5 EPA

None of the bottom 3 receivers in EPA are still on the team, including two former starters:

• RB Zeke Elliot - minus 5.0 EPA
• WR Dennis Houston - minus 8.0 EPA
• TE Dalton Schultz - minus 9.0 EPA

Yes, that's right folks. Dalton Schultz costs the Cowboys points by stepping onto the field, and so did Zeke when it comes to receiving passes. That is a big reason why Schultz wasn't resigned. And given that Ferguson was the 3rd best receiver on the team in 2022 as a rookie, that is why he'll be the starter to begin the 2023 season. Of course, Ferguson's EPA, while positive, wasn't anything special; so, Schoonmaker will have every opportunity to leapfrog him on the depth chart if he plays well as a rookie.

EDIT: WR Brandin Cooks is typically around the top 25% in EPA in the NFL, and has approached top 10% on a couple of occasions. He is a tremendous improvement for the Cowboys receivers.

Sample size...too small to be statically relevant for Ferguson, Malik Davis, etc..

Davis played 79 total snaps on offense and was targeted times as a receiver.

Schultz was not re-signed because his blocking sucked.

 

[xwalker]

Yeah,
I can easily see this as well. Did not and still do not see some huge talent disparity of Schoonmaker over Ferguson. So, an older, second round oft injured blocking TE phenom?
It was a hard sell for me to swallow on draft day and still is.

I just hope Schoon is not another addition to the long list of second round duds they've gone through over the years. Fingers crossed.

jmo

Schoonmaker missed 3 games in 5 years due to injuries...

Schoonmaker's RAS score is 16th of 1105 TEs drafted since 1989...

Ferguson's RAS ranked 326th..

 

[Jumbo075]

Schoonmaker missed 3 games in 5 years due to injuries...

Schoonmaker's RAS score is 16th of 1105 TEs drafted since 1989...

Ferguson's RAS ranked 326th..

Schoonmaker may well pass Ferguson on the depth chart during the course of the year. I did mention that Ferguson’s production, while not negative, was also not impressive. But I believe Ferguson will open the year as the starter. I believe the Cowboys ranked him higher than a 4th round player a year ago, and drafted him specifically to replace Schultz this season.

Having said that, I expect BOTH Ferguson and Schoonmaker to see a lot of time on the field. Even as a rookie TE2, Ferguson started 8 games last year. While Schultz was certainly targeted more often, Ferguson was still on the field a lot - 480 (41.3%) snaps compared to Schultz at 938 snaps (80.7%).

Ferguson earned the chance to be the starter at the beginning of the 2023 season by how he played as a rookie. Certainly, Schoonmaker will get a chance to beat out Ferguson. And he may well displace Ferguson as TE1 by the end of 2023. But it would take a great training camp by Schoonmaker to jump ahead of Ferguson this summer to become the TE1 to start the season, IMO.

As for RAS score, Schoonmaker’s is elite putting him in the top 1.5% for Tight Ends drafted since 1989. But Ferguson is still in the top 30% overall, which is well above average. And I’m sure there are plenty of examples of players with elite RAS scores who became busts.

Not that I’m hoping for Schoonmaker to bust. I honestly don’t have a personal favorite between Ferguson and Schoonmaker as far as their futures with the Cowboys. The Cowboys need BOTH to become really good tight ends. But based on NFL experience, the fact that Ferguson played well last year, I think it will take more than a single training camp for Schoonmaker to win the top job.