Why the 2,000 yard rusher is overrated

[Bobhaze]

We can probably thank the advent of fantasy football for a lot of the stat obsession we see today. The 2,000 yard rusher is a stat that is revered by most, but interestingly the team of the 2,000 rusher historically almost never has playoff success.

In my view, the most important stats that matter in football are team oriented. Like red zone efficiency, points allowed, and WINS! Almost all the individual stuff is fun for fantasy football but amazingly those individual stats don’t often lead to your favorite team playing in SBs because it’s teams that have a variety of weapons who tend to win rather than just a team that relies on a stud.

The 2,000 yard rusher
You often hear fans talk about a great RB having a 2,000 yard season. That has become the “holy grail” stat for RBs. But here’s an interesting truth- 7 players in NFL history have rushed for 2,000 yards or more in a season, yet only one of those- Terrell Davis ever had any real success in the playoffs. Let’s look at the years those 7 players had:

1. 1973- OJ Simpson-Buffalo Bills- rushed for 2,003. Team did not make the playoffs.
2. 1984- Eric Dickerson- LA Rams- rushed for 2,105 (record still stands) Rams lost in first round of playoffs.
3. 1997- Barry Sanders- Lions- rushed for 2,053. Lions lost in first round of playoffs.
4. 1998- Terrell Davis- Broncos- rushed for 2,008- Broncos won SB.
5. 2003- Jamal Lewis- Ravens- rushed for 2,066- Ravens did not make the playoffs.
6. 2009- Chris Johnson- Titans- rushed for 2,006- Titans did not make the playoffs.
7. 2012- Adrian Peterson- Vikings- rushed for 2,097- Vikes lost in Wild card game.

So of the 7 rushers with 2,000 yard seasons, 3 didn’t make the playoffs, 3 lost in round one, and one won a Super Bowl.

Why?

Because teams that have a 2,000 yard rusher usually rely too much on that one player, and when the playoffs arrive, you usually see the leagues best defenses, and they just stack up to stop the run. Offenses that can run or pass are almost always the teams who win in the playoffs. That 98 Broncos team with Terrell Davis also had John Elway and the threat of good passing game.

I want Zeke to have a great year rushing. But I want to win some playoff games even more. The fan obsession with stats is probably part of the fantasy football era. If this team is going to have a long awaited deep playoff run, we probably won’t do it with Zeke rushing for 2,000 yards.

 

[glimmerman]

It’s a passing league and balance is necessary to win it all. Along with a Defense to stop the other team. It’s takes a team not a individual effort.

 

[kskboys]

The total number of yards a RB rushes for is almost completely irrelevant regarding team success. Where rushing yds come into play is when a team is lacking in that dept. And even then, it's more important to be able to get the tough yds than to rack up high totals.

 

[superonyx]

Because teams that have a 2,000 yard rusher usually rely too much on that one player, and when the playoffs arrive, you usually see the leagues best defenses, and they just stack up to stop the run. Offenses that can run or pass are almost always the teams who win in the playoffs. That 98 Broncos team with Terrell Davis also had John Elway and the threat of good passing game.

No worries we have Swaim, Hurns, T Will, and a 3rd round rookie to dominate the playoffs when teams stop Zeke.

 

[CATCH17]

What about the team with the 8th year coach who hasn't won anything?

Has it ever turned around for them? Ever?

 

[CATCH17]

No worries we have Swaim, Hurns, T Will, and a 3rd round rookie to dominate the playoffs when teams stop Zeke.

If we had quality coaching then we could get by with those guys but the lack of scheme is going to be more glaring then ever this year.

We will lack big plays through the air and it will be our downfall.

I'm sure Garrett will get a pass though and lack of talent will be blamed but the guy has had talent and still couldn't get it done.





The Cowboys coaches desperately need a star to emerge in our pass game. It will have to be a unknown commodity IMO. Someone like Gallup, Noah Brown, Rico, someone like that will have to make a Miles Austin type of impact from out of nowhere to save them this year.

Another thing that could save them is if the Defense turns into a top 5 unit that causes turnovers.

If not you will see them exposed and questions about the release of Dez and if Dak is any good will be the talking points all year.

 

[kskboys]

No worries we have Swaim, Hurns, T Will, and a 3rd round rookie to dominate the playoffs when teams stop Zeke.

Don't forget Sir Ced!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[kskboys]

Zeke is great at getting the tough yards, making something out of nothing. IMO he'll be stellar this season.

 

[Doomsday101]

We can probably thank the advent of fantasy football for a lot of the stat obsession we see today. The 2,000 yard rusher is a stat that is revered by most, but interestingly the team of the 2,000 rusher historically almost never has playoff success.

In my view, the most important stats that matter in football are team oriented. Like red zone efficiency, points allowed, and WINS! Almost all the individual stuff is fun for fantasy football but amazingly those individual stats don’t often lead to your favorite team playing in SBs because it’s teams that have a variety of weapons who tend to win rather than just a team that relies on a stud.

The 2,000 yard rusher
You often hear fans talk about a great RB having a 2,000 yard season. That has become the “holy grail” stat for RBs. But here’s an interesting truth- 7 players in NFL history have rushed for 2,000 yards or more in a season, yet only one of those- Terrell Davis ever had any real success in the playoffs. Let’s look at the years those 7 players had:

1. 1973- OJ Simpson-Buffalo Bills- rushed for 2,003. Team did not make the playoffs.
2. 1984- Eric Dickerson- LA Rams- rushed for 2,105 (record still stands) Rams lost in first round of playoffs.
3. 1997- Barry Sanders- Lions- rushed for 2,053. Lions lost in first round of playoffs.
4. 1998- Terrell Davis- Broncos- rushed for 2,008- Broncos won SB.
5. 2003- Jamal Lewis- Ravens- rushed for 2,066- Ravens did not make the playoffs.
6. 2009- Chris Johnson- Titans- rushed for 2,006- Titans did not make the playoffs.
7. 2012- Adrian Peterson- Vikings- rushed for 2,097- Vikes lost in Wild card game.

So of the 7 rushers with 2,000 yard seasons, 3 didn’t make the playoffs, 3 lost in round one, and one won a Super Bowl.

Why?

Because teams that have a 2,000 yard rusher usually rely too much on that one player, and when the playoffs arrive, you usually see the leagues best defenses, and they just stack up to stop the run. Offenses that can run or pass are almost always the teams who win in the playoffs. That 98 Broncos team with Terrell Davis also had John Elway and the threat of good passing game.

I want Zeke to have a great year rushing. But I want to win some playoff games even more. The fan obsession with stats is probably part of the fantasy football era. If this team is going to have a long awaited deep playoff run, we probably won’t do it with Zeke rushing for 2,000 yards.

I agree 2000 yards does not ensure a championship on the other hand throwing for the most yards in a season does not ensure a team will win a championship, heck Drew Brees has lead the league in passing yards in multiple season even when they fail to make post season. As great as Elway was Denver only won back to back with a strong running game from Davis. Clearly you have to be able to put together a good passing game and I think a good running game only makes the offense better because it keeps defense off balance. I would love to see Zeke hit the 2000 mark it is a great individual achievement but of course winning it all is more important than any individual achievement.

 

[kskboys]

I agree 2000 yards does not ensure a championship on the other hand throwing for the most yards in a season does not ensure a team will win a championship, heck Drew Brees has lead the league in passing yards in multiple season even when they fail to make post season. As great as Elway was Denver only won back to back with a strong running game from Davis. Clearly you have to be able to put together a good passing game and I think a good running game only makes the offense better because it keeps defense off balance. I would love to see Zeke hit the 2000 mark it is a great individual achievement but of course winning it all is more important than any individual achievement.

Brees' passing numbers were down in 09, his super bowl winning year. The rushing totals were way up.

08: 5,069
09: 4,388
10: 4,620
11: 5,476

Elway wasn't near as effective any more for those last 2 super bowls.

 

[Bobhaze]

What about the team with the 8th year coach who hasn't won anything?

Has it ever turned around for them? Ever?

Tom Landry. But he is a top 3 all time greatest HC and this is a completely different era.

 

[G2]

Yeah sorry, I'll take a 2,000 yard rusher all day long.

 

[Doomsday101]

Brees' passing numbers were down in 09, his super bowl winning year. The rushing totals were way up.

08: 5,069
09: 4,388
10: 4,620
11: 5,476

Elway wasn't near as effective any more for those last 2 super bowls.

He was also not being asked to carry the entire load. I think anytime a QB is given a running game it takes part of the load off his shoulder. In the end it is about winning championship not about who threw for the most yards or ran for the most yards it is about team playing to a higher level than others.

 

[CATCH17]

Tom Landry. But he is a top 3 all time greatest HC and this is a completely different era.

Yeah but he took over an expansion team and the first Superbowl wasn't until 1967 and he won the Superbowl in 1971. He also had winning seasons before 1967.


Garrett came into the league in the easiest era to turn a team around instantly and he also had a Franchise QB in his prime.

 

[zrinkill]

Of all those guys, only one had a great QB ........ and he won the Superbowl

 

[Bobhaze]

Yeah but he took over an expansion team and the first Superbowl wasn't until 1967 and he won the Superbowl in 1971. He also had winning seasons before 1967.


Garrett came into the league in the easiest era to turn a team around instantly and he also had a Franchise QB in his prime.

Trust me, I’m not defending Garrett or comparing him to TL. I’m just showing how rare it is for a HC to have 8 years and little success then explode into success.

 

[G2]

Yeah but he took over an expansion team and the first Superbowl wasn't until 1967 and he won the Superbowl in 1971. He also had winning seasons before 1967.


Garrett came into the league in the easiest era to turn a team around instantly and he also had a Franchise QB in his prime.

So Landry gets the "expansion team" excuse for 7 seasons?

 

[Bobhaze]

My bigger point with this thread is about individual stats being overrated as opposed to team oriented stats. Here are a couple of team stats that really matter to winning:

1. Point differential- in 2017, the 2 teams with the best point differential played in the Super Bowl. In fact almost every year, Point D is an excellent measure of playoff success. Teams who win a ton of close games are good, but usually not great teams historically. Teams that pancake opponents consistently indicate true strength.

2. Points allowed- in 2017, all 4 teams that made it to the Conference championship games gave up less than 300 points. Everyone who thought Jacksonville was a joke, realize they gave up only 268 points all year. The Cowboys gave up 332 last year, even with a late surge by the D to hold opponent scoring down.

 

[CPanther95]

You need balance. The more dominant the defense you have, the more that balance can skew toward a ball control run-centric offense. When your offense is facing the more dominant defenses you see in the playoffs, the more likely you're going to need a stronger passing game to keep pace. You don't need a 2000 yard rusher, you just need a running game that is very effective in conjunction with your passing game. That can be accomplished with the best RB in the NFL, Zeke , or one of the other Top 10 RBs in the league.

That 1:7 ratio seems about right. That's not a ratio that I'd build an offense around.

 

[CATCH17]

So Landry gets the "expansion team" excuse for 7 seasons?

Lol considering some teams have never even won a Superbowl yeah i'd say he gets the excuse and for 7 of his seasons coaching the team there was no Superbowl.

He couldn't have won the Superbowl because there wasn't one to win.