Why the draft cannot fix every roster hole

[AstroPilota]

Good post Bobhaze and it seems to make a good argument for just trading away a lot of the excess picks for a blue chip draft pick (1st or high-2nd). I've often had the opinion that I'd rather just have 2 solid picks every year and plug holes via free-agency vs having 7, 8 or whatever "wasted" draft picks. Camp-bodies can be had via the undrafted route if they need the grunt-power to get through Training Camp.
However, last years dynamics are pretty weird, as far as the Cowboys current roster make-up, and I think they actually fared pretty well - last year.

 

[Creeper]

The best NFL organizations have realized the last 10-15 years you cannot build a championship quality roster almost exclusively through the draft. Here is the simplest explanation why:

• The odds of rookies giving us instant roster fixes are low. Even first round picks only have about a 50% success rate as long term starters. Rounds 2-7 drop even more. Big time draft immediate star hits are not that common.
• That is why mixing a few quality veteran FA signings with at least a two year commitment are the best way to plug holes if you want to win NOW.

Look at draft success rates by round:

• Round 1: about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round develop into long term NFL starters (3 years or more)
• Round 2: about 33% of 2nd rounders develop into long term NFL starters.
• Round 3: about 16%
• Round 4: about 8%
• Round 5: about 4%
• Round 6: about 2%
• Round 7: about 1%

So as much as we look forward to the draft this week, a lot of those guys won’t be around that long. Don’t believe me? Look at how many guys we still have on the roster from our last 6 drafts:

• 2020 draft: 1 of 7 picks remains: Cedee Lamb
• 2021 draft: 0 of 10 picks remain
• 2022 draft: 4 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Smith, Sam Williams, Deron Bland and Jake Ferguson
• 2023 draft: 2 of 8 picks remain: Luke Schoonmaker and DeMarvion Overshown
• 2024 draft: 6 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Guyton, Cooper Bebee, Marist Liafau, Caelon Carson, Ryan Flournoy and Nate Thomas
• 2025 draft: 8 of 9: Booker, Ezeiruaku, Revel, Blue, James, Cornelius, Toia and Mafa.

So of the 52 players we drafted the last 6 years, 21 are still with the team (about 40%) Of those 21 players, between 10-12 are starters (just over 20%)

So as we get ready for the big draft this week just remember that maybe 20% of the guys we get are going to work out.

That pretty much explains why if we are ever going to get serious about competing again for a championship, we are going to need more than draft picks.

Thanks, Bob. If you look at the players that have excelled in the NFL - made a pro-bowl or all-pro - you can see that most are top 15 picks. After that the numbers fall off dramatically. That's not to say 7th rounders have no chance, but they are very rare. With each round it gets tougher to find that uncut gem.

 

[fivetwos]

Yeah I’ve been moaning over this for about ever.

This plan wouldn’t even work if they were in the business of stockpiling picks, but they actually trade more premium picks lately than they acquire.

How does that combo add up?

 

[Bobhaze]

Good post Bobhaze and it seems to make a good argument for just trading away a lot of the excess picks for a blue chip draft pick (1st or high-2nd). I've often had the opinion that I'd rather just have 2 solid picks every year and plug holes via free-agency vs having 7, 8 or whatever "wasted" draft picks. Camp-bodies can be had via the undrafted route if they need the grunt-power to get through Training Camp.
However, last years dynamics are pretty weird, as far as the Cowboys current roster make-up, and I think they actually fared pretty well - last year.

I almost always agree - it’s better to have one great player than 3-4 ok players that only backups and STers.

And why this year - IMO - trading down to “getting a bunch more picks” is not a wise option. It’s like saying, “Let’s trade down and pick up some extra guys who could either start in a year or two or make excellent ST players.”

The odds of a late first round pick and a bunch of Day 2 or 3 guys transforming this roster are long.

 

[thunderpimp91]

Good post. As a fan I love the draft, and in a cap league it’s crucial to hit on some of these picks, but the harsh reality is that finding one starter and a role player in a draft class is a decent year for a team.

Draft odds aren’t very good overall and it should be used to supplement your roster, not address immediate needs….especially after the top half of round 1.

 

[Bobhaze]

We have holes at DE, CB, S, and a sink hole at LB. Some will say holes at LT, and TE depth.
This is why they need a few slight trades downs, to fill those holes. They added FA's, but basically replaced players lost that they did not want back. However the ones they brought in, via FA and trades are better than the ones they lost.
I believe all of this in on Parker, as Jerry allowed this, at least for this year.

Overall a slight improvement, plus what appears to be a better DC.
But they must hit on this draft. And in 2027 as well.
I do not expect any miracles, but for now if they stay healthy for once. I expect a playoff push type team, and could get a WC.
Right now I give the NFCE edge to Philly, since they won it last year. That I always do, unless that team lost a ton of top players.

Jazz, as you said we have tons of holes to fill. And sometimes trading down for more picks is a good option.

Yes, we MUST hit on this draft. But IMO this year is not the year to “trade down to get extra picks”. Because I believe we need an impact defender that can help now and be around as a good starter for years.

The odds of collecting a bunch more of Day 2 picks and then those guys having immediate impact are low. At least according to history. We would have to be very lucky.

 

[gtb1943]

The Cowboys traded for Pickens, Quinnen and Clark last year. I would say all three of those were “hits”. We also traded for other guys last year, that were pretty much a swing and a miss. But I have to say the Cowboys were trying.

The Cowboys always add additional free agents that have already played in the league. Some of these guys hit and some miss. Usually there is some degree of correlation between higher play and better players.

We also usually add quite a few UDFAs. Some of those guys end up to be legit players for us.

The Cowboys usually do exactly what you are saying they don’t do. Lol. They are just sometimes not very good at it.

I realize that you want the Cowboys to add additional higher priced free agents. But Pickens is taking up $28M out of the cap this year. I would say that’s legitimate free agent dollars right there. I’m just sayin’.

show me any SB team that did not have high priced OUTSIDE Free Agents.
Now that is not the only problem but it is the one that has been absolute since Carr.
Our Draft is average; we do fairly well in the early rounds but lousy in the later
We overpay for our own OVER RATED players and refuse to pay better from outside the team
We do OK on trades; I would say above average there and we made some really progress since last mid season.
NONE of our legs are championship caliber
bluntly speaking overall our FO has produced the team that reflects the Front Office like all teams do
BP said it best: you are what your record says you are
MEDIOCRE

 

[thunderpimp91]

I almost always agree - it’s better to have one great player than 3-4 ok players that only backups and STers.

And why this year - IMO - trading down to “getting a bunch more picks” is not a wise option. It’s like saying, “Let’s trade down and pick up some extra guys who could either start in a year or two or make excellent ST players.”

The odds of a late first round pick and a bunch of Day 2 or 3 guys transforming this roster are long.

Plus there are only so many roster spots. Trading down is great in theory but how many roster spots can you fit for rookies on your roster?

On the flip side if you trade up you lose picks but typically you also gain a FA to fill the void.

While I’m typically against trade ups I also believe nothing matters if you come away with a stud from the draft. I’d move my entire draft class if there was 1 can’t miss prospect I liked in the top 5

 

[ghst187]

The Cowboys traded for Pickens, Quinnen and Clark last year. I would say all three of those were “hits”. We also traded for other guys last year, that were pretty much a swing and a miss. But I have to say the Cowboys were trying.

The Cowboys always add additional free agents that have already played in the league. Some of these guys hit and some miss. Usually there is some degree of correlation between higher play and better players.

We also usually add quite a few UDFAs. Some of those guys end up to be legit players for us.

The Cowboys usually do exactly what you are saying they don’t do. Lol. They are just sometimes not very good at it.

I realize that you want the Cowboys to add additional higher priced free agents. But Pickens is taking up $28M out of the cap this year. I would say that’s legitimate free agent dollars right there. I’m just sayin’.

Quite a few instances past 20 years where we draft a player at a position and then an UDFA at the same position from the same draft supplants the draft pick.

 

[morasp]

Looking back to last years draft we added 2 starters and a third competing for a starting role with only 1 first round pick. With 2 this year I expect at least two more starters. Add the possibility of post draft additions and things might not be so bleak.

 

[Nova]

The Cowboys traded for Pickens, Quinnen and Clark last year. I would say all three of those were “hits”. We also traded for other guys last year, that were pretty much a swing and a miss. But I have to say the Cowboys were trying.

The Cowboys always add additional free agents that have already played in the league. Some of these guys hit and some miss. Usually there is some degree of correlation between higher play and better players.

We also usually add quite a few UDFAs. Some of those guys end up to be legit players for us.

The Cowboys usually do exactly what you are saying they don’t do. Lol. They are just sometimes not very good at it.

I realize that you want the Cowboys to add additional higher priced free agents. But Pickens is taking up $28M out of the cap this year. I would say that’s legitimate free agent dollars right there. I’m just sayin’.

The problem is that they're bad at resource allocation, and their strategy is not comprehensive.

They're terrible at signing FAs because they lowball in an attempt to preserve money/cap.

But then they'll trade draft resources away for a guy like GP who they're going to have to pay anyway. So instead of paying FAs they double pay on these trades, or just lose the draft pick entirely.

That doesn't make sense.

 

[Bobhaze]

Looking back to last years draft we added 2 starters and a third competing for a starting role with only 1 first round pick. With 2 this year I expect at least two more starters. Add the possibility of post draft additions and things might not be so bleak.

It’s not “bleak” going into this draft. It may turn out to be a good one. I’m just trying to be realistic about what it will render.

 

[blueblood70]

again?? same topic 10 different ways....lol polls etc redundancy..man This is literally the same topic over and over and over There's 5 months left why do we keep talking about the roster before is finished it is nowhere near complete..UGHH

 

[Whirlwin]

The best NFL organizations have realized the last 10-15 years you cannot build a championship quality roster almost exclusively through the draft. Here is the simplest explanation why:

• The odds of rookies giving us instant roster fixes are low. Even first round picks only have about a 50% success rate as long term starters. Rounds 2-7 drop even more. Big time draft immediate star hits are not that common.
• That is why mixing a few quality veteran FA signings with at least a two year commitment are the best way to plug holes if you want to win NOW.

Look at draft success rates by round:

• Round 1: about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round develop into long term NFL starters (3 years or more)
• Round 2: about 33% of 2nd rounders develop into long term NFL starters.
• Round 3: about 16%
• Round 4: about 8%
• Round 5: about 4%
• Round 6: about 2%
• Round 7: about 1%

So as much as we look forward to the draft this week, a lot of those guys won’t be around that long. Don’t believe me? Look at how many guys we still have on the roster from our last 6 drafts:

• 2020 draft: 1 of 7 picks remains: Cedee Lamb
• 2021 draft: 0 of 10 picks remain
• 2022 draft: 4 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Smith, Sam Williams, Deron Bland and Jake Ferguson
• 2023 draft: 2 of 8 picks remain: Luke Schoonmaker and DeMarvion Overshown
• 2024 draft: 6 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Guyton, Cooper Bebee, Marist Liafau, Caelon Carson, Ryan Flournoy and Nate Thomas
• 2025 draft: 8 of 9: Booker, Ezeiruaku, Revel, Blue, James, Cornelius, Toia and Mafa.

So of the 52 players we drafted the last 6 years, 21 are still with the team (about 40%) Of those 21 players, between 10-12 are starters (just over 20%)

So as we get ready for the big draft this week just remember that maybe 20% of the guys we get are going to work out.

That pretty much explains why if we are ever going to get serious about competing again for a championship, we are going to need more than draft picks.

With the right people, I think we can

 

[morasp]

It’s not “bleak” going into this draft. It may turn out to be a good one. I’m just trying to be realistic about what it will render.

Fair enough. Having two firsts and Jerry saying no red shirt players in the draft helps the possibility of getting two starters but there are no sure things.

I'm hoping they may have turned a corner in the draft process last year. The only difference I saw was a new head coach and maybe Jerry stepping back a little. In the past there's a good chance they wouldn't have drafted Ezeiruaku in round 2.

 

[thunderpimp91]

Looking back to last years draft we added 2 starters and a third competing for a starting role with only 1 first round pick. With 2 this year I expect at least two more starters. Add the possibility of post draft additions and things might not be so bleak.

That's the glass half full thought process, and I hope it's right. From a fan perspective I think there is nothing wrong taking that POV, but you'd hope the front office would be more proactive than just expecting two picks to end up as starting caliber players. This is the same math that fans of pretty much all 32 teams are doing right now to gain excitement about their chances.

The Cowboys have two very good looking players from 2025 in Booker/EZ plus guys like Revel/Blue/James that we are hoping can still contribute, if not develop into full time regulars. That said though your draft classes will almost always look best right after the draft and get worse and worse as time goes on simply because NFL careers are typically really short and guys don't always get better.

The last 10 1st round picks I think we would all mostly agree the Cowboys hit on Booker/Smith/Lamb/Parson/Zeke, missed on Guyton(so far)/Mazi/Taco, LVE/Byron Jones were sort of OK picks you can live with but would probably have a redo. Taking hope and fandom out of the equation all the data both for the Cowboys and league wide suggests that two mid 1st round picks like the Cowboys have this year should have us counting on 1 plug and player starter that can be at least league average year 1 and 1 developmental player who may or may not ever make it.

 

[Rayman70]

Good post Bobhaze and it seems to make a good argument for just trading away a lot of the excess picks for a blue chip draft pick (1st or high-2nd). I've often had the opinion that I'd rather just have 2 solid picks every year and plug holes via free-agency vs having 7, 8 or whatever "wasted" draft picks. Camp-bodies can be had via the undrafted route if they need the grunt-power to get through Training Camp.
However, last years dynamics are pretty weird, as far as the Cowboys current roster make-up, and I think they actually fared pretty well - last year.

You are correct but dont we come to this conclusion every draft time? Lol. At some point when is it gonna be enough?

 

[LouBrown]

No, but it will inform the post June-1 guys they do/don't sign.

 

[thunderpimp91]

again?? same topic 10 different ways....lol polls etc redundancy..man This is literally the same topic over and over and over There's 5 months left why do we keep talking about the roster before is finished it is nowhere near complete..UGHH

Because we are just days away from the last big offseason event that will leave 90% of the roster complete and the last major opportunity to add value to your organization without giving up anything other than money has already happened.

There are still some FAs available that would be noteworthy, but the list is getting slim. There will also be some trade options available, but now you're giving up equal value back to another team as well.

Completely understand that there are still levers Jerry can pull, but the passive approach is what has let this team down for years now. Get your roster mostly set so your coordinators can fill out their playbooks. Get players in here who can start to get to know their teammates and learn the system. Last year it was "dont worry we have guys like Gilmore and Kendricks on speed dial"...but neither happened and both the LB and CB units were disasters with no answers.

While there is still time, I'm not sure Jerry/Stephen deserve benefit of the doubt from fans.....especially considering that they seem to be making some of the same mistakes as years past (non aggressive FA, letting a tag/contract dispute possibly drag into camp, etc.)

 

[JoeKing]

The best NFL organizations have realized the last 10-15 years you cannot build a championship quality roster almost exclusively through the draft. Here is the simplest explanation why:

• The odds of rookies giving us instant roster fixes are low. Even first round picks only have about a 50% success rate as long term starters. Rounds 2-7 drop even more. Big time draft immediate star hits are not that common.
• That is why mixing a few quality veteran FA signings with at least a two year commitment are the best way to plug holes if you want to win NOW.

Look at draft success rates by round:

• Round 1: about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round develop into long term NFL starters (3 years or more)
• Round 2: about 33% of 2nd rounders develop into long term NFL starters.
• Round 3: about 16%
• Round 4: about 8%
• Round 5: about 4%
• Round 6: about 2%
• Round 7: about 1%

So as much as we look forward to the draft this week, a lot of those guys won’t be around that long. Don’t believe me? Look at how many guys we still have on the roster from our last 6 drafts:

• 2020 draft: 1 of 7 picks remains: Cedee Lamb
• 2021 draft: 0 of 10 picks remain
• 2022 draft: 4 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Smith, Sam Williams, Deron Bland and Jake Ferguson
• 2023 draft: 2 of 8 picks remain: Luke Schoonmaker and DeMarvion Overshown
• 2024 draft: 6 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Guyton, Cooper Bebee, Marist Liafau, Caelon Carson, Ryan Flournoy and Nate Thomas
• 2025 draft: 8 of 9: Booker, Ezeiruaku, Revel, Blue, James, Cornelius, Toia and Mafa.

So of the 52 players we drafted the last 6 years, 21 are still with the team (about 40%) Of those 21 players, between 10-12 are starters (just over 20%)

So as we get ready for the big draft this week just remember that maybe 20% of the guys we get are going to work out.

That pretty much explains why if we are ever going to get serious about competing again for a championship, we are going to need more than draft picks.

Bob? Who is thinking the draft could fix every roster hole? I don't think anyone is thinking that. We have free agency to assist in filling those deficiencies. The trick is getting the FO to properly utilize that option. We also have to continue developing the talent we have through superior training and mentoring. Leaning so heavily on the draft as we have in years past needs to end. I think you were pretty much saying this much.