Common Sense
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A couple of years ago we kept hearing about 27 being the age of decline for RBs and the "1,800-carry rule," only to see Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, and even Matt Forte go on to have seasons that they statistically shouldn't have had. There's a good chance that as we make advances in sports medicine and learn more about injury prevention and treatment, the age and carry threshold will continue to creep up, albeit slightly. Which is fine, because no one expects a RB to play into a third long-term contract.
Don't get me wrong. RBs will continue to decline somewhere in their late 20s for the most part, but it still doesn't lend much credence to the idea that they are only valuable in their rookie deals.
If you have a RB whose rookie contract is up at 24 (not counting the option year), you have the opportunity to sign that player to a five-year extension that keeps him until age 29. Even if he has a disappointing season at age 28, no one is going to bat an eye if a player gets cut with a year left on his contract. It happens all the time with no serious cap ramifications.
And if you're scared of the 1,800 carry threshold, consider how you can manage a player's carries over the course of a career, similar to the way you'd manage pitch counts in baseball.
1,800 carries over 9 years = 200 carries / year
1,800 carries over 8 years = 225 carries / year
1,800 carries over 7 years = 257 carries / year
1,800 carries over 6 years = 300 carries / year
1,800 carries over 5 years = 360 carries / year
I personally believe that the 1,800 number will trend upward (so more carries per year, safely) as teams begin to pay more attention to RB longevity and learn how to prolong their careers (carry management, advances in sports medicine, etc.). I don't believe that the position has become permanently devalued. More likely, it was overvalued for a period of time and the market has since corrected itself. Rather than trying to teach rookie RBs how not to get their quarterback killed every four or five years, teams will become more reliant on reasonably priced long-term players and manage their overall health and production in a manner similar to baseball.
Don't get me wrong. RBs will continue to decline somewhere in their late 20s for the most part, but it still doesn't lend much credence to the idea that they are only valuable in their rookie deals.
If you have a RB whose rookie contract is up at 24 (not counting the option year), you have the opportunity to sign that player to a five-year extension that keeps him until age 29. Even if he has a disappointing season at age 28, no one is going to bat an eye if a player gets cut with a year left on his contract. It happens all the time with no serious cap ramifications.
And if you're scared of the 1,800 carry threshold, consider how you can manage a player's carries over the course of a career, similar to the way you'd manage pitch counts in baseball.
1,800 carries over 9 years = 200 carries / year
1,800 carries over 8 years = 225 carries / year
1,800 carries over 7 years = 257 carries / year
1,800 carries over 6 years = 300 carries / year
1,800 carries over 5 years = 360 carries / year
I personally believe that the 1,800 number will trend upward (so more carries per year, safely) as teams begin to pay more attention to RB longevity and learn how to prolong their careers (carry management, advances in sports medicine, etc.). I don't believe that the position has become permanently devalued. More likely, it was overvalued for a period of time and the market has since corrected itself. Rather than trying to teach rookie RBs how not to get their quarterback killed every four or five years, teams will become more reliant on reasonably priced long-term players and manage their overall health and production in a manner similar to baseball.
