Wild Card Tie Breaker Help

[Quarterback Coach]

Why are we ahead of Atlanta now...God willing Washington loses (if Baltimore can hold on to the damn ball)?

 

[The Panch]

We have a better Conference record.

 

[casmith07]

Why are we ahead of Atlanta now...God willing Washington loses (if Baltimore can hold on to the damn ball)?

Atlanta has a worse record against NFC teams than we do. We hold tie-breakers over Tampa Bay and Atlanta, as far as I know no matter what happens. I'll check schedule/records and edit in a sec.

Edit: we have to win out to be safe. It would help drastically if ATL loses to TB next week.

 

[Quarterback Coach]

Atlanta has a worse record against NFC teams than we do. We hold tie-breakers over Tampa Bay and Atlanta, as far as I know no matter what happens. I'll check schedule/records and edit in a sec.

Edit: we have to win out to be safe. It would help drastically if ATL loses to TB next week.

I though we have the same conf record

 

[Smith22]

We are 6-4 in the NFC right now, the Falcons are currently 5-4.

 

[casmith07]

I though we have the same conf record

We're 6-4 with 2 NFC games remaining, they're 5-4 with 3 NFC games remaining. It's not much, but if we beat NYG and PHI we go to 8-4 in the NFC and if ATL loses to TB next week and wins out they'll be 7-5 NFC.

We'd then both have the same record, but we'd be in the playoffs. If ATL wins out we're screwed.

 

[kramskoi]

better conference record 6-4 to 5-4...

Atlanta has 3 NFC games remaining so it is imperative that Dallas wins NYG and PHI at the minimum...and if Atlanta runs the table they need Baltimore also. A tie would go to Dallas in common games [3-1] Dal [2-2/3-2] Atl and Dallas also wins strength of victory...

What Dallas can't do is drop to six losses which introduces a myriad of possibilities for other teams, especially Atl/Philly/Wash/Chi/N.O., to leapfrog them.

I'm afraid that Dallas needs to win out to assure themselves a place at the table

 

[CATCH17]

What if Dallas and Atlanta finish with the same conference record?

 

[Hypnotoad]

What if Dallas and Atlanta finish with the same conference record?

there's a complex list of tie breaking procedures.

The giants game becomes huge.

 

[casmith07]

What if Dallas and Atlanta finish with the same conference record?

It'll go to common victory. So if they beat the Rams, we're done.

They also get St. Louis at home

Edit: Unless TB has beaten them twice, in which case we beat TB, so we get the nod because they also lost to the Iggles and we would have beaten them twice.

It would get complicated if somehow we finish with the same conference record. They'd have to win out and we only lose to Baltimore. I think we'd still get in though.

 

[CATCH17]

What sucks is we play 4 very Physical teams in a row starting with Pitt today.

NYG, BAL, PHI are all very physical.

If we do make the playoffs we're going to be banged up bigtime.

 

[kramskoi]

Atlanta has a worse record against NFC teams than we do. We hold tie-breakers over Tampa Bay and Atlanta, as far as I know no matter what happens. I'll check schedule/records and edit in a sec.

Edit: we have to win out to be safe. It would help drastically if ATL loses to TB next week.

which is likely to happen, though they do get Tampa at the Georgiadome, but if Dallas fouls up against Baltimore, they are back in the same boat...ominously, its starting to look like another cold weather defensive game against a tough NorthEastern division opponent for a chance to play in the postseason.

 

[5Stars]

Madden just said that if the Cowboys cannot beat the remaining teams they should just sit home and eat cheesburgers and watch TV.

I hope the players don't like cheeseburgers!

 

[casmith07]

which is likely to happen, though they do get Tampa at the Georgiadome, but if Dallas fouls up against Baltimore, they are back in the same boat...ominously, its starting to look like another cold weather defensive game against a tough NorthEastern division opponent for a chance to play in the postseason.

Either way, we play I believe Minnesota or Arizona in the first round as it stands now, assuming Minnesota wins the North. Carolina/Tampa Bay and the Midgets have home field/bye week.

 

[Muhast]

What sucks is we play 4 very Physical teams in a row starting with Pitt today.

NYG, BAL, PHI are all very physical.

If we do make the playoffs we're going to be banged up bigtime.

with as many injuries as we have, and seeing players get hurt every 5 minutes tonight, we may not have a team left for the playoffs.

 

[AdamJT13]

What if Dallas and Atlanta finish with the same conference record?

Then it goes to common games -- Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Green Bay.

Right now, we're 3-1 against common opponents, with one more game against the Eagles. The Falcons are 1-2, with games left against Tampa Bay and St. Louis.

It's impossible for us to LOSE the common games tiebreaker with the Falcons, because no matter what happens, the worst we could be (3-2) is the best that they could be.

If both teams win out, we win the tiebreaker 4-1 to 3-2.

If both teams lose one more, we win that tiebreaker unless our only loss is to the Eagles (beat the Giants, beat the Ravens, lose to the Eagles) and the Falcons' only loss is to the Vikings (beat the Bucs, lose to the Vikings, beat the Rams). If that happens, we'd be tied at 3-2 in common games, and it would go to strength of victory (we're ahead in that right now, and we almost certainly would win it easily because our win over the Giants would be far better than their win over the Rams).

If both teams lose two more, we'd automatically win the tiebreaker (they'd be 2-3 or worse in common games), but it likely wouldn't matter because we'd probably both be out of the playoffs at 9-7 anyway.

Mathematically, the ONLY way we can lose any tiebreaker with Atlanta is if all three of these things happen --

1) We beat the Giants and Ravens but lose to the Eagles

and

2) The Falcons beat the Bucs, lose to the Vikings, then beat the Rams

and

3) Out of 27 specific games during the final three weeks, 21 or more of those games go the Falcons' way. If at least seven of the 27 games go our way, we win the strength of victory tiebreaker. And for games to go the Falcons' way, they'd need the 0-13 Lions, 2-11 Chiefs, 2-11 Rams and 3-10 Raiders to start winning games or the 11-2 Giants and 9-4 Ravens to keep losing games in addition to their losses against us. The Falcons have virtually no chance of that possibly happening the way they'd need it.