Will A Rookie Quarterback Lead His Team To Super Bowl LVII?

[DallasEast]

No rookie quarterback-led team has appeared and/or won a championship in the NFL's modern history, which includes all previous 56 Super Bowls. Two rookies may have that opportunity this postseason due to injuries.

Rookie Brock Purdy has started for the NFC's 2nd seeded San Francisco 49ers since early December when Jimmy Garafolo broke his foot, ironically against the AFC's 7th seeded Miami Dolphins, who will likely start rookie Skylar Thompson in place of concussion plagued Tua Tagovailoa. Thompson's start is likely temporary and contingent of Tagovailoa's return. 8-year journeyman Josh Johnson is Purdy's backup and will unlikely provide any veteran on-the-field leadership.

Will this be the record-setting season? Or will this season end up being another notch in the Super Bowls-Aren't-For-Rookie-Quarterback-Led Teams belt? Stay tuned.

 

[big dog cowboy]

 

[Flamma]

No rookie quarterback-led team has appeared and/or won a championship in the NFL's modern history, which includes all previous 56 Super Bowls. Two rookies may have that opportunity this postseason due to injuries.

Rookie Brock Purdy has started for the NFC's 2nd seeded San Francisco 49ers since early December when Jimmy Garafolo broke his foot, ironically against the AFC's 7th seeded Miami Dolphins, who will likely start rookie Skylar Thompson in place of concussion plagued Tua Tagovailoa. Thompson's start is likely temporary and contingent of Tagovailoa's return. 8-year journeyman Josh Johnson is Purdy's backup and will unlikely provide any veteran on-the-field leadership.

Will this be the record-setting season? Or will this season end up being another notch in the Super Bowls-Aren't-For-Rookie-Quarterback-Led Teams belt? Stay tuned.

It's quite possible. IMO it not happening doesn't have that much to do with quarterbacks being a rookie like many people think. It has everything to do with the lack of opportunities.

Look at this case. It took a 7th round pick playing at a high level to even have this chance. Most quarterbacks drafted high aren't on super bowl caliber teams. Super bowl caliber teams rarely draft QBs in the top 10.

Dallas had a shot with Dak in 2016. But that was a 4th round pick. The Steelers had a shot in 2004. But how often do these opportunities arise? Very rarely. That's why no rookie QB ever started in a SB.

 

[DFWJC]

I think they give the 49ers about a 12% chance. Not sure any team has more than a 15-16% chance.
So its a tossup but odds again any one team (if you are betting)

You can pick Mahomes or Allen or Burrow and they too will be statistically unlikely to win it.
But one of that group probably will

 

[DallasEast]

It's quite possible. IMO it not happening doesn't have that much to do with quarterbacks being a rookie like many people think. It has everything to do with the lack of opportunities.

Look at this case. It took a 7th round pick playing at a high level to even have this chance. Most quarterbacks drafted high aren't on super bowl caliber teams. Super bowl caliber teams rarely draft QBs in the top 10.

Dallas had a shot with Dak in 2016. But that was a 4th round pick. The Steelers had a shot in 2004. But how often do these opportunities arise? Very rarely. That's why no rookie QB ever started in a SB.

Understood but your observation concerning lack of opportunities was also recited by other members back in 2016, when there had been fewer instances of playoff teams previously being led by rookie quarterbacks. That number remains quite small by comparison to teams led by veteran quarterbacks during the modern football era but it has grown since 2016.

Admittedly, I have annually made the counter-argument that (whenever possible) veteran quarterbacks would (unscientifically of course) raise the odds of leading their teams to the championship game over their rookie counterparts. For that specific reason, I have created a thread each postseason that has a playoff team led by a rookie quarterback since 2016, which highlights each additional rare opportunity.

Perhaps this thread will bear witness to the historic change during conference championship weekend this year. Maybe this postseason will be the same as all the ones that preceded it. Who knows? I severely doubt (understatement) the event will happen during my lifetime but nothing is impossible. We'll all see eventually.

 

[DallasEast]

I think they give the 49ers about a 12% chance. Not sure any team has more than a 15-16% chance.
So its a tossup but odds again any one team (if you are betting)

You can pick Mahomes or Allen or Burrow and they too will be statistically unlikely to win it.
But one of that group probably will

San Francisco is a solid team top-to-bottom. If there is a reasonable chance of any rookie-led team breaking the cycle, it would be this season's 49ers. Unlike the professional oddsmakers, I predict their odds at around 0.9%. I am an amateur oddsmaker, so what would I know? lol.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

I think the 49ers are the best team in the NFC.

 

[DallasEast]

I think the 49ers are the best team in the NFC.

They can make a strong argument for being just that, especially against the Eagles stating otherwise in one particular sense. The 49ers did not stumble down the stretch after losing Jimmy Garafolo while the Eagles did after losing Jalen Hurts.

 

[Flamma]

They can make a strong argument for being just that, especially against the Eagles stating otherwise in one particular sense. The 49ers did not stumble down the stretch after losing Jimmy Garafolo while the Eagles did after losing Jalen Hurts.

I think the 49ers can beat the Eagles. But it's close. The Eagles would be at home. But if the 49ers lose, it's not because of Purdy. He's every bit as good as Garoppolo, minus the high pressure situations. Jimmy has been there.

 

[DallasEast]

I think the 49ers can beat the Eagles. But it's close. The Eagles would be at home. But if the 49ers lose, it's not because of Purdy. He's every bit as good as Garoppolo, minus the high pressure situations. Jimmy has been there.

Purdy's performance may not be a direct result of the 49ers getting booted from the playoffs, much as Prescott's rookie performance against the Packers during the 2016 postseason did not directly kick the Cowboys out in my opinion. Perhaps Purdy will make significant mistakes, just as any quarterback, rookie or veteran, is liable of committing. Only time will determine how well the player, his teammates and coaching will perform in the end.

This thread, any my other threads, do not place blame on a single player. Heck. I have posted enough times since 2016 that I place the blame for Romo not replacing Prescott solely on Jerry Jones' shoulders. My belief is that optimum postseason success is dependent upon many interconnecting intangibles, with an important one being veteran experience at the quarterback position.

One day, the magic number of opportunities afforded to rookie quarterback-led teams reaching or winning a Super Bowl will hit its breakeven point. Virtually all records are due to fall at some point. This one will not be an exception. My questions are whether it will be this year? Sometime during the next few years? Before I take a dirt nap? Again. Who knows?

 

[DallasEast]

Either the Philadelphia Eagles go to the Super Bowl next Sunday or San Francisco makes Super Bowl history before even playing the game.

 

[Reverend Conehead]

No rookie quarterback-led team has appeared and/or won a championship in the NFL's modern history, which includes all previous 56 Super Bowls. Two rookies may have that opportunity this postseason due to injuries.

Rookie Brock Purdy has started for the NFC's 2nd seeded San Francisco 49ers since early December when Jimmy Garafolo broke his foot, ironically against the AFC's 7th seeded Miami Dolphins, who will likely start rookie Skylar Thompson in place of concussion plagued Tua Tagovailoa. Thompson's start is likely temporary and contingent of Tagovailoa's return. 8-year journeyman Josh Johnson is Purdy's backup and will unlikely provide any veteran on-the-field leadership.

Will this be the record-setting season? Or will this season end up being another notch in the Super Bowls-Aren't-For-Rookie-Quarterback-Led Teams belt? Stay tuned.

Didn't Ben Roethlisberger do it his rookie year?

 

[DallasEast]

Didn't Ben Roethlisberger do it his rookie year?

No. The Steelers drafted Roethlisberger in the 2004 draft.

Pittsburgh, led by Roethlisberger, faced off with New England in the AFC Championship Game his rookie season. The Patriots beat the Steelers 41-27, advanced and defeated the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX.

I have brought up the topic each year since 2016. Almost every time, someone has mistakenly remembered second year veteran Roethlisberger and the Steelers beating the Seahawks 21-10 in Super Bowl XXXX as his rookie season.

 

[Dakota]

The answer to your question is no. Hurts is not a rookie.

 

[Reverend Conehead]

No. The Steelers drafted Roethlisberger in the 2004 draft.

Pittsburgh, led by Roethlisberger, faced off with New England in the AFC Championship Game his rookie season. The Patriots beat the Steelers 41-27, advanced and defeated the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX.

I have brought up the topic each year since 2016. Almost every time, someone has mistakenly remembered second year veteran Roethlisberger and the Steelers beating the Seahawks 21-10 in Super Bowl XXXX as his rookie season.

My memory couldn't possibly be faulty, could it? I remember Big Ben sneaking the bribery check into the refs pocket before the game and everything, and then after the game, I remember the reporter saying, "The Steelers have bought ... err ... I mean won the Super Bowl."

 

[DallasEast]

The answer to your question is no. Hurts is not a rookie.

lol. Good one. Time will tell if you are right.

 

[Cowpolk]

There is a 1st time for every thing Hope he beats the eaglets

 

[DallasEast]

Would have been extremely interesting seeing Brock Purdy play all four quarters today. Football is football through.

The record remains unbroken at all 57 Super Bowls. Will the upcoming draft match a rookie quarterback with a team worthy of competing for Super Bowl LVIII in Paradise, Nevada next February?

Stay tuned.