dwmyers
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I just calculated this and I'm looking at the numbers and puzzling, because it wasn't what I expected.
These are charts of win advantages versus median point spread advantages, and there are a few elements that are counterintuitive. The charts cover all regular season games from 2001 through 2007 where the teams have already played at least 2 games (otherwise win differences don't amount to much).
The notation A/B means that there are A wins out of B total games in that category.
Some points. Look at the winning percentages for teams that are one win behind, and about evenly matched in median spread, to those that are one game ahead. It seems as if there is some kind of "Catch Up" effect, that gives teams that are a little behind in wins but perhaps equal in skill some advantages.
This does not show up when teams have the same winning record. There, median point spreads almost uniformly influence outcome.
To take some examples from the playoff teams:
Washington is going to play Seattle and Seattle has a 1 game advantage in record and a 2 point advantage in median spread. The record of all teams with those advantages is 6 wins out of 8. So Seattle in theory has an advantage, a 75% chance to win.
Now contrast that with the New York Giants. The Giants have a 1 game advantage over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a 0.5 advantage in point spread. We'll round up in this instance and check the visitor's table for a 1 game advantage with a 1 point advantage in median. And looking we see that only 2 teams out of 12 have won in that situation.
Oops.
The Jacksonville Jags are a visiting team with a one game advantage in wins and no advantage in median going into the Pittsburgh Steelers stadium. 2 teams out of 18 have won there.
Double oops.
The Titans are going to San Diego, one game behind and with a delta median just about 9 or so. If we check a visiting team with at least a 8 point deficit in median and one game behind, the odds of winning are 2 out of 82.
Triple oops.
Ironically, the chart would suggest that Washington/Seattle would be the best of the games to watch, that Washington has more of a chance to win than any underdog in the wild cards.
These are charts of win advantages versus median point spread advantages, and there are a few elements that are counterintuitive. The charts cover all regular season games from 2001 through 2007 where the teams have already played at least 2 games (otherwise win differences don't amount to much).
The notation A/B means that there are A wins out of B total games in that category.
Code:
Global Statistics:
Games Home Wins Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
1784 1020 26.80 15.22 11.58
HOME TEAM - median difference
------- -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
WinDiff
-9.0 : 0/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0
-8.0 : 3/6 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0
-7.0 : 4/13 1/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0
-6.0 : 6/28 0/1 0/0 1/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0
-5.0 : 9/24 0/0 1/3 1/1 0/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/1 1/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0
-4.0 : 15/57 2/3 3/6 0/0 0/0 2/2 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 1/1
-3.0 : 13/73 2/5 3/9 8/9 2/5 6/6 2/2 1/1 1/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 1/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0
-2.0 : 32/103 3/6 5/9 9/18 6/12 7/9 7/9 3/3 1/2 7/9 1/1 0/0 2/2 2/2 2/2 0/0 2/2
-1.0 : 13/60 4/15 1/9 2/12 4/12 5/18 7/10 10/12 16/18 18/19 17/17 8/10 6/6 7/8 3/3 2/3 5/5
0.0 : 3/27 1/5 0/6 0/9 3/14 1/15 2/13 3/5 7/13 6/9 10/12 10/11 18/19 8/8 6/6 4/5 34/34
1.0 : 1/9 2/2 1/1 0/2 1/6 2/6 2/10 3/15 4/17 8/16 6/8 11/15 8/13 16/17 8/9 8/8 80/82
2.0 : 0/2 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/2 0/1 1/4 1/5 0/6 3/10 3/7 3/10 5/9 15/15 11/12 72/82
3.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 1/5 1/1 0/4 4/8 3/3 2/7 61/76
4.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/1 0/2 1/3 3/3 41/51
5.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 1/1 4/6 30/32
6.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 14/18
7.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/1 16/19
8.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 6/6
10.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 2/2
11.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 1/1
13.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 1/1
VISITING TEAM - median difference
------- -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
WinDiff
-8.0 : 0/6 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0
-7.0 : 3/19 1/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0
-6.0 : 4/18 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0
-5.0 : 2/32 2/6 0/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0
-4.0 : 10/51 0/3 2/3 2/2 1/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0
-3.0 : 15/76 5/7 0/3 4/8 4/4 0/1 4/5 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0
-2.0 : 10/82 1/12 0/15 4/9 7/10 4/7 7/10 6/6 4/5 3/4 1/1 2/2 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 2/2
-1.0 : 2/82 0/8 1/9 1/17 5/13 4/15 2/8 8/16 13/17 12/15 8/10 4/6 5/6 2/2 0/1 0/2 8/9
0.0 : 0/34 1/5 0/6 0/8 1/19 1/11 2/12 3/9 6/13 2/5 11/13 14/15 11/14 9/9 6/6 4/5 24/27
1.0 : 0/5 1/3 0/3 1/8 0/6 2/10 0/17 1/19 2/18 2/12 3/10 13/18 8/12 10/12 8/9 11/15 47/60
2.0 : 0/2 0/0 0/2 0/2 0/2 0/0 0/1 2/9 1/2 0/3 2/9 2/9 6/12 9/18 4/9 3/6 71/103
3.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/1 0/1 0/2 0/6 3/5 1/9 6/9 3/5 60/73
4.0 : 0/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/1 0/1 0/1 0/1 0/2 0/0 0/0 3/6 1/3 42/57
5.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/1 1/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 1/1 0/1 2/3 0/0 15/24
6.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/1 0/0 1/1 22/28
7.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/1 9/13
8.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 3/6
9.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 1/1
10.0 : 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 3/5This does not show up when teams have the same winning record. There, median point spreads almost uniformly influence outcome.
To take some examples from the playoff teams:
Code:
Rank Team Median W L T
-------------------------------------
1 NE 21.0 16 0 0
2 IND 12.5 13 3 0
3 DAL 10.0 13 3 0
4 GB 9.0 13 3 0
5 SD 12.0 11 5 0
6 JAC 7.0 11 5 0
7 PIT 7.0 10 6 0
8 CLE 4.5 10 6 0
9 SEA 4.5 10 6 0
10 NYG 4.0 10 6 0
11 TEN 3.5 10 6 0
12 TB 3.5 9 7 0
13 WAS 2.5 9 7 0Now contrast that with the New York Giants. The Giants have a 1 game advantage over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a 0.5 advantage in point spread. We'll round up in this instance and check the visitor's table for a 1 game advantage with a 1 point advantage in median. And looking we see that only 2 teams out of 12 have won in that situation.
Oops.
The Jacksonville Jags are a visiting team with a one game advantage in wins and no advantage in median going into the Pittsburgh Steelers stadium. 2 teams out of 18 have won there.
Double oops.
The Titans are going to San Diego, one game behind and with a delta median just about 9 or so. If we check a visiting team with at least a 8 point deficit in median and one game behind, the odds of winning are 2 out of 82.
Triple oops.
Ironically, the chart would suggest that Washington/Seattle would be the best of the games to watch, that Washington has more of a chance to win than any underdog in the wild cards.
