dargonking999
DKRandom
- Messages
- 12,578
- Reaction score
- 2,057
http://nfl.com/news/story/10263285
You talk about intresting
When predictions go wrong
By Dave Gladow
NFL.com
(July 20, 2007) -- It's that time of year again, the time most journalists dread: Prediction time.
Ah yes, prediction time. A magical, wondrous time when scribes around the country get to attempt to make sense of the NFL (an impossible task) and expose themselves to the kind of ridicule not experienced since high school (I might be projecting here). Make your picks, and then face the public's wrath. Survival of the fittest. Darwinism at its best.
Frankly, I don't feel a whole lot of sympathy for the folks who complain about this chore. As a writer of a fantasy football column for the past two years, I have had to make predictions on a daily basis -- predictions that have often decided whether thousands of random strangers would find happiness or not (at least until the following week). I once had a guy beg me to give him a winning starting lineup for a league he had $2,000 invested in. I'm not sure I ever signed up for such a thing, but there it was regardless. A total stranger wanted me to decide the fate of his $2,000. Much hand-wringing was done before responding to that one, I can tell you.
So when we, as journalists, are faced with something as easy and (mostly) harmless as making some playoff picks, I have to scoff at those that protest too much. If you can't take the heat, quit writing about football. It's pretty simple.
Not that the complainers don't have a point. The whole thing is ridiculous. What can honestly be gained by speculating about which teams will do well and which teams will be the Cleveland Browns? I mean, seriously, does this matter in any appreciable way?
All that said, you've gotta give 'em (the fans) what they want. And if there's anything I've learned in the past several years, other than a strong belief that sports writers need to get out more (OK, I'm definitely projecting here), it's that fans love to hear and share opinions about what will happen. I'm not sure any of them are calling Miss Cleo in their spare time, but they are clamoring for something to talk about -- especially in the offseason. Absurd predictions give them that.
So with that in mind, I offer the following guidelines to any writers getting ready to make their NFL picks. Keep these rules in mind, and you'll likely fare much better in 2007 (fewer angry mobs to deal with).
1.) When writing, use words like "probably", "potentially", "could", "might" and "likely". I could say something about the Raiders being the worst team of all time in 2007, but so long as I don't make it a definite, the fans have nothing to nail me on. For example, I might say, "The Raiders have the potential to be the worst team of all time in 2007." See how that works?
Now, this can backfire on you pretty easily with fans accusing you of never saying anything worthwhile or definitive. While they have a point, I'd rather be seen as the guy who chose my words carefully than the guy who guaranteed the Texans would make the playoffs. Try living that one down.
2.) Don't rely too heavily on last year when trying to decide who will win their divisions this year. Just four of eight division-winners from 2005 managed to defend their titles in 2006. The year before, only three out of eight managed to repeat. It's safe to say there will be changes at the top, so make sure you account for that.
3.) Don't put Arizona or Detroit in the playoffs. Just don't do it. I know these two teams look like they might break through with a big season every year, but if you pick them you will be wrong, and more importantly, you will look like an idiot (scroll down to see me looking like an idiot).
4.) The worst team in football is generally not who you think it's going to be. Last year, the primary suspects prior to the season were Houston, Tennessee and Cleveland. Instead, Oakland nabbed the title. This year, most will probably pick Oakland, Cleveland or possibly Tampa Bay, but folks should really look elsewhere for the true flops.
5.) Find a pick you feel good about and then stress the heck out of it. If you're confident about a certain team (and better yet, if you have evidence to back it up), beat it into the ground. Bring it up every chance you get, and don't ever stop talking about it. Make the readers so sick of hearing about it that they can't help but remember when you're right later on ... unless you're wrong. Then pray for a quick death.
6.) Look at the schedule. More than any other factor, a team's schedule can determine its success. I chose to break things down game-by-game, but if you don't have that kind of time, at least try to get a feel for how tough a schedule any individual team might have. It can help.
7.) Write something. Read it. Remark to yourself that you must be out of your mind. Delete. Repeat at least 20 times.
8.) The three teams favored to do the best this season are New England, Indianapolis and San Diego. Chances are, at least one of those teams will have a somewhat disappointing record. I'm not calling for any of them to miss the playoffs, but giving each of them 13 wins probably isn't realistic either. Keep your expectations for the favorites in check.
9.) Try to be funny. I know, I know, I should practice what I preach. But seriously, a little levity can lighten the mood and soften the impact. If I lash out with hatred at the Dallas Cowboys for seven paragraphs, their fans will attempt to lynch me. If I instead joke about the Dallas Cowboys for seven paragraphs, their fans will merely threaten to lynch me. And give me a cookie. At least I hope so.
10.) Have fun. I think some lose sight of the fact that our jobs are supposed to be enjoyable. Is it really that bad to have to sit around and try to make NFL predictions? Try telling that to the guy who has a mountain of headaches and plenty of reasons to truly hate his job with a passion (Bobby Petrino?).
Anyway, if you're having fun, it will come out in your writing, and maybe your readers will have fun reading it. Everybody wins! Well, everybody except the Dolphins. (Zing!)
So read on for my own (pathetic) attempt at predicting the divisions. Notice some inconsistencies with my advice from above? (hint: Cardinals) Don't get so hung up on things -- after all, this is supposed to be fun, right? Right?
OK, I'm a hypocrite (at least I'm an honest hypocrite). Have fun with that when you lynch me.
2007 PREDICTED STANDINGS
AFC East North South West
Patriots (11-5)* Bengals (12-4)* Colts (13-3)* Chargers (10-6)*
Jets (8-8) Steelers (11-5)*Titans (10-6)* Broncos (8-8)
Bills (8-8) Ravens (10-6) Jaguars (9-7) Chiefs (6-10)
Dolphins (5-11) Browns (4-12) Texans (6-10) Raiders (5-11)
NFC East North South West
Commanders (7-9)* Bears (10-6)* Saints (11-5)* Seahawks (10-6)*
Eagles (7-9) Lions (9-7) Panthers (10-6)* Cardinals (9-7)*
Giants (7-9) Vikings (6-10) Buccaneers (7-9) Rams (7-9)
Cowboys (7-9) Packers (3-13) Falcons (4-12) 49ers (6-10)
WILD CARD: NE over TEN, SD over PIT; CHI over ARI, CAR over WAS
DIVISIONAL: CIN over NE, SD over IND; SEA over CHI, CAR over NO
CHAMPIONSHIP: SD over CIN; SEA over CAR
SUPER BOWL: SD over SEA
If you like what you've read from Dave Gladow (or at least haven't felt the need to pump your stomach), keep an eye out for his work on NOLA.com, where he'll blog Saints and everything Gulf Coast. Hooray!
You talk about intresting
When predictions go wrong
By Dave Gladow
NFL.com
(July 20, 2007) -- It's that time of year again, the time most journalists dread: Prediction time.
Ah yes, prediction time. A magical, wondrous time when scribes around the country get to attempt to make sense of the NFL (an impossible task) and expose themselves to the kind of ridicule not experienced since high school (I might be projecting here). Make your picks, and then face the public's wrath. Survival of the fittest. Darwinism at its best.
Frankly, I don't feel a whole lot of sympathy for the folks who complain about this chore. As a writer of a fantasy football column for the past two years, I have had to make predictions on a daily basis -- predictions that have often decided whether thousands of random strangers would find happiness or not (at least until the following week). I once had a guy beg me to give him a winning starting lineup for a league he had $2,000 invested in. I'm not sure I ever signed up for such a thing, but there it was regardless. A total stranger wanted me to decide the fate of his $2,000. Much hand-wringing was done before responding to that one, I can tell you.
So when we, as journalists, are faced with something as easy and (mostly) harmless as making some playoff picks, I have to scoff at those that protest too much. If you can't take the heat, quit writing about football. It's pretty simple.
Not that the complainers don't have a point. The whole thing is ridiculous. What can honestly be gained by speculating about which teams will do well and which teams will be the Cleveland Browns? I mean, seriously, does this matter in any appreciable way?
All that said, you've gotta give 'em (the fans) what they want. And if there's anything I've learned in the past several years, other than a strong belief that sports writers need to get out more (OK, I'm definitely projecting here), it's that fans love to hear and share opinions about what will happen. I'm not sure any of them are calling Miss Cleo in their spare time, but they are clamoring for something to talk about -- especially in the offseason. Absurd predictions give them that.
So with that in mind, I offer the following guidelines to any writers getting ready to make their NFL picks. Keep these rules in mind, and you'll likely fare much better in 2007 (fewer angry mobs to deal with).
1.) When writing, use words like "probably", "potentially", "could", "might" and "likely". I could say something about the Raiders being the worst team of all time in 2007, but so long as I don't make it a definite, the fans have nothing to nail me on. For example, I might say, "The Raiders have the potential to be the worst team of all time in 2007." See how that works?
Now, this can backfire on you pretty easily with fans accusing you of never saying anything worthwhile or definitive. While they have a point, I'd rather be seen as the guy who chose my words carefully than the guy who guaranteed the Texans would make the playoffs. Try living that one down.
2.) Don't rely too heavily on last year when trying to decide who will win their divisions this year. Just four of eight division-winners from 2005 managed to defend their titles in 2006. The year before, only three out of eight managed to repeat. It's safe to say there will be changes at the top, so make sure you account for that.
3.) Don't put Arizona or Detroit in the playoffs. Just don't do it. I know these two teams look like they might break through with a big season every year, but if you pick them you will be wrong, and more importantly, you will look like an idiot (scroll down to see me looking like an idiot).
4.) The worst team in football is generally not who you think it's going to be. Last year, the primary suspects prior to the season were Houston, Tennessee and Cleveland. Instead, Oakland nabbed the title. This year, most will probably pick Oakland, Cleveland or possibly Tampa Bay, but folks should really look elsewhere for the true flops.
5.) Find a pick you feel good about and then stress the heck out of it. If you're confident about a certain team (and better yet, if you have evidence to back it up), beat it into the ground. Bring it up every chance you get, and don't ever stop talking about it. Make the readers so sick of hearing about it that they can't help but remember when you're right later on ... unless you're wrong. Then pray for a quick death.
6.) Look at the schedule. More than any other factor, a team's schedule can determine its success. I chose to break things down game-by-game, but if you don't have that kind of time, at least try to get a feel for how tough a schedule any individual team might have. It can help.
7.) Write something. Read it. Remark to yourself that you must be out of your mind. Delete. Repeat at least 20 times.
8.) The three teams favored to do the best this season are New England, Indianapolis and San Diego. Chances are, at least one of those teams will have a somewhat disappointing record. I'm not calling for any of them to miss the playoffs, but giving each of them 13 wins probably isn't realistic either. Keep your expectations for the favorites in check.
9.) Try to be funny. I know, I know, I should practice what I preach. But seriously, a little levity can lighten the mood and soften the impact. If I lash out with hatred at the Dallas Cowboys for seven paragraphs, their fans will attempt to lynch me. If I instead joke about the Dallas Cowboys for seven paragraphs, their fans will merely threaten to lynch me. And give me a cookie. At least I hope so.
10.) Have fun. I think some lose sight of the fact that our jobs are supposed to be enjoyable. Is it really that bad to have to sit around and try to make NFL predictions? Try telling that to the guy who has a mountain of headaches and plenty of reasons to truly hate his job with a passion (Bobby Petrino?).
Anyway, if you're having fun, it will come out in your writing, and maybe your readers will have fun reading it. Everybody wins! Well, everybody except the Dolphins. (Zing!)
So read on for my own (pathetic) attempt at predicting the divisions. Notice some inconsistencies with my advice from above? (hint: Cardinals) Don't get so hung up on things -- after all, this is supposed to be fun, right? Right?
OK, I'm a hypocrite (at least I'm an honest hypocrite). Have fun with that when you lynch me.
2007 PREDICTED STANDINGS
AFC East North South West
Patriots (11-5)* Bengals (12-4)* Colts (13-3)* Chargers (10-6)*
Jets (8-8) Steelers (11-5)*Titans (10-6)* Broncos (8-8)
Bills (8-8) Ravens (10-6) Jaguars (9-7) Chiefs (6-10)
Dolphins (5-11) Browns (4-12) Texans (6-10) Raiders (5-11)
NFC East North South West
Commanders (7-9)* Bears (10-6)* Saints (11-5)* Seahawks (10-6)*
Eagles (7-9) Lions (9-7) Panthers (10-6)* Cardinals (9-7)*
Giants (7-9) Vikings (6-10) Buccaneers (7-9) Rams (7-9)
Cowboys (7-9) Packers (3-13) Falcons (4-12) 49ers (6-10)
WILD CARD: NE over TEN, SD over PIT; CHI over ARI, CAR over WAS
DIVISIONAL: CIN over NE, SD over IND; SEA over CHI, CAR over NO
CHAMPIONSHIP: SD over CIN; SEA over CAR
SUPER BOWL: SD over SEA
If you like what you've read from Dave Gladow (or at least haven't felt the need to pump your stomach), keep an eye out for his work on NOLA.com, where he'll blog Saints and everything Gulf Coast. Hooray!
