WR Draft Stats

[masomenos]

Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens are both over 30 years old and many people on this forum consider WR to be a significant need to address in this years draft. After the two incumbent starters we have Patrick Crayton, Sam Hurd, Miles Austin, Demarius Bilbo, Jerheme Urban and Jamicia Rector. While some are fine with this "depth" I believe that placing our hope of finding a #1 or #2 WR among the bottom of our current roster is a little foolish. Now, I'm not saying that the guys have no potential and that the can't contribute...I'm just saying that the odds of them developing into a quality starter are relatively low.

Anyways here are the numbers I found in regards to starting WRs and where they were drafted:

Rd 1: 41%
Rd 2: 20%
Rd 3: 13%
Rd 4: 6%
Rd 5: 3%
Rd 6: 0%
Rd 7: 8%
UFA: 5%

The majority of starting WRs in the NFL were drafted in the first two rounds and nearly 3/4 of them were drafted on the first day. It's fairly obvious that the earlier you draft a WR the more likely you are to get a #1 or #2 guy. While it seems like a stupid thing to say, I only bring it up because so many people seem to be fine with the depth we have at WR and the potential the current roster has to replace Glenn and Owens. We already have one 7th Rd WR who contributes significantly to this team in Patrick Crayton, but how many people would really be ok with him moving up to the #2 spot? I, for one, would at least be a little hesitant about the move because I don't think Crayton has ever really shown he has what it takes to be a semi-consistent 1000 yard WR.

Of the top 31 WRs this year, in terms of Rec. yards (basically any WR with 800 or more yards) these are the stats on where they were drafted:

Rd 1: 58%
Rd 2: 13%
Rd 3: 13%
Rd 4: 3%
Rd 5: 0%
Rd 6: 0%
Rd 7: 10 %
UFA: 3%

Again, there's an obvious correlation between where a WR is taken in the draft and their production on the field. If we want to find a guy who is going to be able to take over for Owens and Glenn then it would be prudent for us to draft one as early as possible. With the draft class for WRs as talented as it is, this would be an excellent time for us to bring in another guy. No, he may not contribute significantly right away but he could certainly come in and provide some excellent depth. Even if we do have a #1 or #2 type WR on the bottom of the roster right now, we'll still need another guy and a WR in the first round this year would have a good potential of being that guy.

 

[Chrissyboy]

Thanks for the number crunching Mas. Interesting.

 

[Chuck 54]

I'll be totally shocked if we don't go WR in round 1 and defense, probably CB, in round 2.

 

[THUMPER]

Very nicely done masomenos85 and it confirms what I have been saying all along. Now is the time to draft a WR in the 1st round and it needs to be a guy who is really going to start within the next year or two, not a situational player or a project player (Ginn).

Jarrett, Meachem, or Bowe all fit the mold of what we are looking for and one or more should be available when we select at #22. Guys who can make big plays and consistently move the chains are what we need.

Good research, it is much appreciated.

 

[superpunk]

masomenos...bring me more trends, and the head of a pig.

So far, we have....draft one early, if you're gonna draft one. Stay away from the PAC 10, and focus on the ACC and Big 10. Combine that with your explosiveness numbers, and we should be able to spout out just who we need to pick in a few weeks.

 

[mmillman]

good post, and it supports my position that Dallas should trade up for Johnson.

 

[superpunk]

good post, and it supports my position that Dallas should trade up for Johnson.

I think everyone would support that position.

It just happens to be impossible.

 

[RealCowboyfan]

Dwayne Jarrett or Dwayne Bowe in the first.

But if it's between them two.

DWAYNE JARRETT

 

[masomenos]

masomenos...bring me more trends, and the head of a pig.

So far, we have....draft one early, if you're gonna draft one. Stay away from the PAC 10, and focus on the ACC and Big 10. Combine that with your explosiveness numbers, and we should be able to spout out just who we need to pick in a few weeks.

You know, people always say that the draft isn't a science and while I don't think that you can predict things 100% I do think that you can look at trends and statistics and be able to have a little more success with your draft picks. A lot of people may be willing to ignore trends as coincidence, but I say they exist for a reason and valuable information can be pulled from them. I will bring more trends though, I plan on looking up some info on safeties and CBs soon too, but really I imagine them to be similar. Early picks have a much greater chance of succeeding.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I bet you if you run the #s of all the positions, and who's starting and doing well, and where they were drafted, the #s would all heavily favor 1st round players

I'm just guesstimating, so don't quote me on that

 

[jobberone]

I'll be totally shocked if we don't go WR in round 1 and defense, probably CB, in round 2.

There are more talented WRs available at our second pick than there are CBs.

After Meachum and certainly Bowe there is a third tier of WRs . That's if u accept Ginn and Jarrett belong in that tier which I do. I'm not saying you can't rank that third tier which you obviously can. There is just not as much difference in those in the third tier as there is a difference in the second tier from the third. Again not all believe that.

The probability of drafting a lower first tier CB or S is very good at 22. In fact I think there is a good chance we'll have to decide between Nelson/Griffin/Meriweather and Revis/Ross/Houston. Certainly one of those will be available at 22. Those guys are ranked in the top 25 or better by many. All six will not be gone by 22. And you can throw Meriweather out if you like.

 

[masomenos]

I bet you if you run the #s of all the positions, and who's starting and doing well, and where they were drafted, the #s would all heavily favor 1st round players

I'm just guesstimating, so don't quote me on that

Oddly enough, CB doesn't really follow this trend. It favors 1st rounders, but not very heavily, but that post is coming later tonight.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Oddly enough, CB doesn't really follow this trend. It favors 1st rounders, but not very heavily, but that post is coming later tonight.

I said don't quote me!!

 

[Bob Sacamano]

There are more talented WRs available at our second pick than there are CBs.

I agree w/ that line of thinking, alot of the projected 1st day CB's short-shuttle times are no better than 4.12