Doomsday101
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As mini-camps roll on this weekend, I continue to issue my preliminary player rankings.
In past columns, I've provided my initial thoughts on quarterbacks and running backs. Yes, I've heard the comments on the omission of Ben Roethlisberger and the placement of Shaun Alexander. I love the debates!
This time out, I'm profiling the elite at the wide receiver position. The list contains a number of longtime fantasy heroes and a couple emerging stars who are likely to become mainstays in this endeavor. At the head of the pack for 2007 is the venerable Marvin Harrison. Fresh off of a Super Bowl win, he's looking to extend a phenomenal streak of productivity.
1. Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts
In an age where wide receivers rule highlight reels as much for their words as their play, Harrison continues to put up monster totals with a quiet profile. He finished the 2006 season with a flurry, hauling in six touchdown passes in the final three weeks of the year to ensure his eighth consecutive season with double-digit touchdown receptions. Harrison has averaged 103 receptions and 1,402 receiving yards during this streak.
Harrison returns to the No. 1 ranking for several reasons. Clearly, his performance speaks to his durability. He's missed only two games in the last eight seasons. Additionally, the defense sustained a number of losses following the Super Bowl win. As such, there is a distinct possibility that the high-flying Colts attack that we've come to know will be in full effect this year. Harrison caught 15 touchdown passes in Manning's record-breaking season of 2004. I believe he can return to the mark this year.
2. Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals
Johnson is a stark contrast to Harrison in his approach, but the results are similar. Both players can flat-out play this position, as evidenced by their mind-boggling numbers. Johnson owns a streak of five seasons with at least 1,100 receiving yards and four years of at least 87 receptions.
The Bengals figure to rank among the league's highest-scoring units once again, with Carson Palmer returning to full health and Rudi Johnson moving the chains on the ground. As the Bengals enter camp, they'll be looking for a third wide receiver to complement Johnson and fellow fantasy favorite T.J. Houshmandzadeh while Chris Henry serves his eight-game suspension. Johnson figures to push back toward the 100-reception mark (average of 94 from 2003-2005) and notch his first double-digit touchdown season since 2003.
3. Torry Holt, St. Louis Rams
The St. Louis offense remains one of the more explosive units in the game, and veteran receiver Holt is at the heart of the action. In 2006, Holt notched his seventh consecutive 1,100-yard season and third double-digit touchdown campaign in the last four years (he scored nine in 2005).
He's positively a machine, having missed only two games in his eight-year NFL career. Holt has also averaged 94 receptions during the past seven seasons. He's about as sure a proposition as you'll find at the position.
4. Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys
Say what you will. Owens produces in-between the white lines. Yes, a reduction in the number of dropped balls would be nice, as Dallas fans would argue most vehemently, but it's hard to argue with 85 receptions, 1,180 receiving yards and 13 scores (five of which came in fantasy playoffs season).
Owens came to life following the promotion of Tony Romo, averaging 5.7 receptions and 80.5 receiving yards in Romo's starts. Of course, he also caught nine of his 13 touchdowns from Romo as well. With that great stretch at the end of the season, Owens has caught 13 or more touchdowns in six of his last nine NFL seasons.
5. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers
Smith missed the first two weeks of the season with an injury, but never looked back once he took the field, immediately posting a 100-yard game in Week 3. He finished with an impressive 1,166 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in spite of missing two weeks and additional three-game stretch without Jake Delhomme. Much to the chagrin of fantasy owners, that occurred in the playoffs.
Delhomme is back with a more established backup in David Carr, and the receiving corps added Dwayne Jarrett in the draft while saying goodbye to Keyshawn Johnson. There's no reason to suspect a drop-off in production.
6. Roy Williams, Detroit Lions
Williams achieved his first 1,000-yard receiving season in the frenetic Mike Martz offense in 2006. He also obliterated his previous reception totals in the new offense, hauling in 82 balls while scoring seven touchdowns. In his three years with the Lions, Williams has averaged 7.7 touchdown receptions with little help opposite him.
Detroit found a receiving partner for him last year in surprise breakout performer Mike Furrey, who outperformed former first-round pick Mike Williams for the role. This year, the Lions have added another receiver in the first round, former Georgia Tech star Calvin Johnson. This trio should cause defensive coordinators fits in Martz's scheme. If Jon Kitna can cut down on his turnovers, this unit will be most interesting to watch.
7. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts
Wayne hit the national stage during the Super Bowl run last year, but fantasy owners have been onboard with this talented No. 2 receiver for years. Wayne recorded his third consecutive 1,000-yard season last year and scored nine touchdowns. In the past four years as a starter opposite Marvin Harrison, Wayne has averaged 78.5 receptions and 1,103 receiving yards.
The embarrassment of riches for the Indianapolis receivers should continue in 2007. Peyton Manning and company are hungry for a return run to the Super Bowl in Arizona, and with the depletion of the secondary, this team will rely on Manning's right arm for wins. As such, there's an opportunity for Wayne to equal the astronomical totals of 2004.
8. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
A lingering hamstring injury helped to pull down Fitzgerald's numbers in 2006. However, he still finished with 69 receptions, 946 receiving yards and six scores in spite of missing three games and parts of others. Additionally, the Cardinals were unable to mount a consistent running attack and Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart spent a lot of time retreating from pass rushers.
I expect things to be better with the selection of Levi Brown in the draft and the insertion of blocking schemes from Russ Grimm. He'll offer great value for fantasy owners this season, as some may overlook the time lost to injury and the multitude of changes in Arizona.
9. Javon Walker, Denver Broncos
Walker returned from the lost 2005 season to post his second 1,000-yard season in his first year in Denver. He has the penchant for the big play, having recorded a reception of at least 25 yards in nine different games last season.
The always prolific Denver offense will be revamped somewhat to accommodate the strong arm of Jay Cutler. As such, I expect Walker to ramp up his productivity in 2007. Travis Henry and Mike Bell will no doubt get frequent calls in-between the 20s, but it's all about Walker in the red zone.
10. Randy Moss, New England Patriots
It's the $64 million question of the off-season? Which Randy Moss will put on a Patriots uniform? It is the Moss of 1998-2003 who couldn't be stopped? Or will the oft-injured and disinterested player of 2004-2006 sabotage the Patriots' Super Bowl aspirations?
Based on his lofty position in the rankings here, you can see which Moss I believe will arrive in Foxboro. Moss just turned 30 and Tom Brady openly lobbied for his addition to the roster. With Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker out in patterns as well, opposing defensive coordinators will need to play chess with Brady and Belichick. Suffice it to say, I like the Patriots' chances. I'm looking for Moss to become a red zone monster once again. Will he reach the 100-reception mark again? No, not in this attack under Brady, but a return to 75 receptions and 1,100 yards with double-digit touchdown catches is not unattainable.
11. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals
After two injury-shortened seasons, Boldin played in all 16 games for the Cardinals in 2006 and produced big numbers for fantasy owners in spite of growing pains for young Matt Leinart. Boldin caught four or more passes in 14 of 16 games en route to an 83-reception, 1,203-yard season. The only thing missing was a big touchdown season.
That will change in Leinart's first full season as the starter. The offensive line will be better under Russ Grimm and Ken Whisenhunt, and the ability to establish a running game with Edgerrin James will allow Leinart time to better utilize his potent receivers.
12. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals
Playing the role of "Robin" to Chad Johnson's "Batman," Houshmandzadeh produced another tremendous season for fantasy owners in Cincinnati. Houshmandzadeh established new career marks in all categories with nine touchdowns, 90 receptions and 1,081 receiving yards. He reached these heights in spite of missing two games and parts of others with injury concerns and the accomplishments of his fellow receivers and back Rudi Johnson.
This year, the sky is the limit for Houshmandzadeh. He and Chad Johnson will boost their red zone looks with the loss of Chris Henry to suspension for the first half of the season and a fully healthy Palmer under center.
13. Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers
Barring some last-minute change of heart, fantasy owners will be treated to another season of frequent connections between Brett Favre and his favorite target, Donald Driver. Driver has topped 1,200 receiving yards in three consecutive years in spite of a lack of consistency in the running game and in the receiving corps. He has played in all but one game in the past five seasons. While that doesn't equal the legendary streak of Favre, it does allow owners to draft him with confidence.
The Packers are expecting further development from Greg Jennings to aid in the receiving corps, and there's still a possibility that Keyshawn Johnson ends up in Green Bay (unless Tennessee signs him). The big question in Green Bay is the running back position with the departure of former fantasy hero Ahman Green. Rookie Brandon Jackson from Nebraska will battle in camp for an opportunity to anchor the unit. Their success will determine the ceiling for Driver and the passing game.
14. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints
Had it not been for an injury that slowed him during the second half, Colston might have gone on to the most prolific rookie season for a receiver ever. However, I doubt that the Saints or their seventh-round selection from 2006 are complaining about 70 receptions, 1,038 receiving yards and eight touchdowns (seven in his first eight games). He produced five games with at least 97 receiving yards and averaged six receptions per game before his injury.
Colston is now the anchor of the receiving corps with the departure of Joe Horn for Atlanta, and that's just fine by the second-year man from Hofstra. Drew Brees is back to lead one of the most prolific offenses in the game, and the continued development of Reggie Bush and the introduction of Robert Meachem will only boost Colston's production.
15. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers
There will undoubtedly be growing pains in the new offense being implemented in Pittsburgh, but a more spread out attack is music to the ears of Hines Ward. That isn't to say that Pittsburgh will totally abandon its ground game, but more emphasis will be placed on the strong right arm of Ben Roethlisberger.
The former Super Bowl MVP has seen his role reduced somewhat in recent years with the emphasis on the running game under Bill Cowher, at least in terms of receptions (74.3 receptions per year from 2004-2006). In this new attack, it's possible that Ward returns to the forefront of the playcalling under Mike Tomlin with more routes underneath coverage and scraping across the middle. Ward averaged 100 receptions and 1,165 receiving yards from 2001-2003. He could return to those heights in 2007.
http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/story/6827648
In past columns, I've provided my initial thoughts on quarterbacks and running backs. Yes, I've heard the comments on the omission of Ben Roethlisberger and the placement of Shaun Alexander. I love the debates!
This time out, I'm profiling the elite at the wide receiver position. The list contains a number of longtime fantasy heroes and a couple emerging stars who are likely to become mainstays in this endeavor. At the head of the pack for 2007 is the venerable Marvin Harrison. Fresh off of a Super Bowl win, he's looking to extend a phenomenal streak of productivity.
1. Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts
In an age where wide receivers rule highlight reels as much for their words as their play, Harrison continues to put up monster totals with a quiet profile. He finished the 2006 season with a flurry, hauling in six touchdown passes in the final three weeks of the year to ensure his eighth consecutive season with double-digit touchdown receptions. Harrison has averaged 103 receptions and 1,402 receiving yards during this streak.
Harrison returns to the No. 1 ranking for several reasons. Clearly, his performance speaks to his durability. He's missed only two games in the last eight seasons. Additionally, the defense sustained a number of losses following the Super Bowl win. As such, there is a distinct possibility that the high-flying Colts attack that we've come to know will be in full effect this year. Harrison caught 15 touchdown passes in Manning's record-breaking season of 2004. I believe he can return to the mark this year.
2. Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals
Johnson is a stark contrast to Harrison in his approach, but the results are similar. Both players can flat-out play this position, as evidenced by their mind-boggling numbers. Johnson owns a streak of five seasons with at least 1,100 receiving yards and four years of at least 87 receptions.
The Bengals figure to rank among the league's highest-scoring units once again, with Carson Palmer returning to full health and Rudi Johnson moving the chains on the ground. As the Bengals enter camp, they'll be looking for a third wide receiver to complement Johnson and fellow fantasy favorite T.J. Houshmandzadeh while Chris Henry serves his eight-game suspension. Johnson figures to push back toward the 100-reception mark (average of 94 from 2003-2005) and notch his first double-digit touchdown season since 2003.
3. Torry Holt, St. Louis Rams
The St. Louis offense remains one of the more explosive units in the game, and veteran receiver Holt is at the heart of the action. In 2006, Holt notched his seventh consecutive 1,100-yard season and third double-digit touchdown campaign in the last four years (he scored nine in 2005).
He's positively a machine, having missed only two games in his eight-year NFL career. Holt has also averaged 94 receptions during the past seven seasons. He's about as sure a proposition as you'll find at the position.
4. Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys
Say what you will. Owens produces in-between the white lines. Yes, a reduction in the number of dropped balls would be nice, as Dallas fans would argue most vehemently, but it's hard to argue with 85 receptions, 1,180 receiving yards and 13 scores (five of which came in fantasy playoffs season).
Owens came to life following the promotion of Tony Romo, averaging 5.7 receptions and 80.5 receiving yards in Romo's starts. Of course, he also caught nine of his 13 touchdowns from Romo as well. With that great stretch at the end of the season, Owens has caught 13 or more touchdowns in six of his last nine NFL seasons.
5. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers
Smith missed the first two weeks of the season with an injury, but never looked back once he took the field, immediately posting a 100-yard game in Week 3. He finished with an impressive 1,166 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in spite of missing two weeks and additional three-game stretch without Jake Delhomme. Much to the chagrin of fantasy owners, that occurred in the playoffs.
Delhomme is back with a more established backup in David Carr, and the receiving corps added Dwayne Jarrett in the draft while saying goodbye to Keyshawn Johnson. There's no reason to suspect a drop-off in production.
6. Roy Williams, Detroit Lions
Williams achieved his first 1,000-yard receiving season in the frenetic Mike Martz offense in 2006. He also obliterated his previous reception totals in the new offense, hauling in 82 balls while scoring seven touchdowns. In his three years with the Lions, Williams has averaged 7.7 touchdown receptions with little help opposite him.
Detroit found a receiving partner for him last year in surprise breakout performer Mike Furrey, who outperformed former first-round pick Mike Williams for the role. This year, the Lions have added another receiver in the first round, former Georgia Tech star Calvin Johnson. This trio should cause defensive coordinators fits in Martz's scheme. If Jon Kitna can cut down on his turnovers, this unit will be most interesting to watch.
7. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts
Wayne hit the national stage during the Super Bowl run last year, but fantasy owners have been onboard with this talented No. 2 receiver for years. Wayne recorded his third consecutive 1,000-yard season last year and scored nine touchdowns. In the past four years as a starter opposite Marvin Harrison, Wayne has averaged 78.5 receptions and 1,103 receiving yards.
The embarrassment of riches for the Indianapolis receivers should continue in 2007. Peyton Manning and company are hungry for a return run to the Super Bowl in Arizona, and with the depletion of the secondary, this team will rely on Manning's right arm for wins. As such, there's an opportunity for Wayne to equal the astronomical totals of 2004.
8. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
A lingering hamstring injury helped to pull down Fitzgerald's numbers in 2006. However, he still finished with 69 receptions, 946 receiving yards and six scores in spite of missing three games and parts of others. Additionally, the Cardinals were unable to mount a consistent running attack and Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart spent a lot of time retreating from pass rushers.
I expect things to be better with the selection of Levi Brown in the draft and the insertion of blocking schemes from Russ Grimm. He'll offer great value for fantasy owners this season, as some may overlook the time lost to injury and the multitude of changes in Arizona.
9. Javon Walker, Denver Broncos
Walker returned from the lost 2005 season to post his second 1,000-yard season in his first year in Denver. He has the penchant for the big play, having recorded a reception of at least 25 yards in nine different games last season.
The always prolific Denver offense will be revamped somewhat to accommodate the strong arm of Jay Cutler. As such, I expect Walker to ramp up his productivity in 2007. Travis Henry and Mike Bell will no doubt get frequent calls in-between the 20s, but it's all about Walker in the red zone.
10. Randy Moss, New England Patriots
It's the $64 million question of the off-season? Which Randy Moss will put on a Patriots uniform? It is the Moss of 1998-2003 who couldn't be stopped? Or will the oft-injured and disinterested player of 2004-2006 sabotage the Patriots' Super Bowl aspirations?
Based on his lofty position in the rankings here, you can see which Moss I believe will arrive in Foxboro. Moss just turned 30 and Tom Brady openly lobbied for his addition to the roster. With Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker out in patterns as well, opposing defensive coordinators will need to play chess with Brady and Belichick. Suffice it to say, I like the Patriots' chances. I'm looking for Moss to become a red zone monster once again. Will he reach the 100-reception mark again? No, not in this attack under Brady, but a return to 75 receptions and 1,100 yards with double-digit touchdown catches is not unattainable.
11. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals
After two injury-shortened seasons, Boldin played in all 16 games for the Cardinals in 2006 and produced big numbers for fantasy owners in spite of growing pains for young Matt Leinart. Boldin caught four or more passes in 14 of 16 games en route to an 83-reception, 1,203-yard season. The only thing missing was a big touchdown season.
That will change in Leinart's first full season as the starter. The offensive line will be better under Russ Grimm and Ken Whisenhunt, and the ability to establish a running game with Edgerrin James will allow Leinart time to better utilize his potent receivers.
12. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals
Playing the role of "Robin" to Chad Johnson's "Batman," Houshmandzadeh produced another tremendous season for fantasy owners in Cincinnati. Houshmandzadeh established new career marks in all categories with nine touchdowns, 90 receptions and 1,081 receiving yards. He reached these heights in spite of missing two games and parts of others with injury concerns and the accomplishments of his fellow receivers and back Rudi Johnson.
This year, the sky is the limit for Houshmandzadeh. He and Chad Johnson will boost their red zone looks with the loss of Chris Henry to suspension for the first half of the season and a fully healthy Palmer under center.
13. Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers
Barring some last-minute change of heart, fantasy owners will be treated to another season of frequent connections between Brett Favre and his favorite target, Donald Driver. Driver has topped 1,200 receiving yards in three consecutive years in spite of a lack of consistency in the running game and in the receiving corps. He has played in all but one game in the past five seasons. While that doesn't equal the legendary streak of Favre, it does allow owners to draft him with confidence.
The Packers are expecting further development from Greg Jennings to aid in the receiving corps, and there's still a possibility that Keyshawn Johnson ends up in Green Bay (unless Tennessee signs him). The big question in Green Bay is the running back position with the departure of former fantasy hero Ahman Green. Rookie Brandon Jackson from Nebraska will battle in camp for an opportunity to anchor the unit. Their success will determine the ceiling for Driver and the passing game.
14. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints
Had it not been for an injury that slowed him during the second half, Colston might have gone on to the most prolific rookie season for a receiver ever. However, I doubt that the Saints or their seventh-round selection from 2006 are complaining about 70 receptions, 1,038 receiving yards and eight touchdowns (seven in his first eight games). He produced five games with at least 97 receiving yards and averaged six receptions per game before his injury.
Colston is now the anchor of the receiving corps with the departure of Joe Horn for Atlanta, and that's just fine by the second-year man from Hofstra. Drew Brees is back to lead one of the most prolific offenses in the game, and the continued development of Reggie Bush and the introduction of Robert Meachem will only boost Colston's production.
15. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers
There will undoubtedly be growing pains in the new offense being implemented in Pittsburgh, but a more spread out attack is music to the ears of Hines Ward. That isn't to say that Pittsburgh will totally abandon its ground game, but more emphasis will be placed on the strong right arm of Ben Roethlisberger.
The former Super Bowl MVP has seen his role reduced somewhat in recent years with the emphasis on the running game under Bill Cowher, at least in terms of receptions (74.3 receptions per year from 2004-2006). In this new attack, it's possible that Ward returns to the forefront of the playcalling under Mike Tomlin with more routes underneath coverage and scraping across the middle. Ward averaged 100 receptions and 1,165 receiving yards from 2001-2003. He could return to those heights in 2007.
http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/story/6827648
