beware_d-ware
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I've been seeing a lot of mock drafts that had us taking McKinney, but I've heard very little talk about him, so I thought I'd take a look at him myself and do a writeup for the board.
I'll start with the analytics look at scouting for safeties, because it's short and simple.
https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbers/nfl-draft-analytics-def?page=2
The analytics for safeties isn't really clear-cut. No stats translate very well, and no Combine drills translate well outside of the 40. Out of the top 18 safeties in the league, 14 ran at least a 4.52, but there were still plenty of average safeties that made it with slower 40s, so 4.52's not a hard cutoff for success either. It's a position you really need to lean on tape to scout.
So as far as the tape then.... McKinney puts some really good stuff on there.
The biggest things that strikes me about McKinney are how versatile and polished he is. High-round Bama guys virtually always come out pro-ready, and McKinney's no exception. He's an intelligent, exceptionally aware, technically refined athlete who can play box SS, FS, slot corner and even nickel LB interchangeably. His versatility and crimson jersey will inevitably get him Minkah Fitzpatrick comps, but they're not off-base.
When he wants to cover the slot in man, he can backpedal and sit on their break like a CB. When he plays in the box, he can work through trash and has a penchant for big hits. When he plays FS... he's off the screen half the time so I can't see him, but he only gave up 1 deep throw in the two games I watched (0:55 vs Bama, and even then, that was a good throw by Burrow). He can play pretty much anywhere on the back seven and do it at a high level. Heck, he played probably 80% of the snaps at the LSU game between slot CB and LB, and finished with 13 tackles, 1 sack, and a strip on Burrow.
And I want to go back to his awareness for a second, because this guy is AWESOME in zone. He just understands the concepts so easily. When receivers leave his zone, he immediately switches targets to the next guy. If there's no one in his zone, he starts running backwards to cover the deep route he knows is developing behind him. He's comfortable slow-playing things and just sitting there backpedaling and reading, but he triggers as soon as he sees the throw coming. It's all textbook and he makes it look so easy.
His last play of the Auburn game at 9:32 really highlights this awareness. 3rd and 7, he sees the QB rolling out on the boot, and takes a couple steps towards him. As he's moving forward, he sees the TE crossing behind him on a boot-over, so he stops his path to the QB and drops back to cover him, Realizing he's getting set up for a trap, he snaps his head around behind him like a freaking owl to see if he has any help. When he recognizes that he's got a linebacker covering the TE trying to sneak by him, McKinney switches targets again, then closes in and drops the QB.
They're a little more pedestrian, but I also like his pass breakups at 5:25 in the Auburn game (two verticals? no! underneath checkdown? yes!) and 6:41 in the Auburn game (just ninja-senses that deep-over coming).
As far as weaknesses, there's two problems I'm seeing with him.
1 is the lack of a second gear. Even when he hits attack mode and decides to close, he's not overly fast, and doesn't seem to have that kind of burst to instantly close. If you watch Derwin James, for example, he has so much burst that he can virtually teleport across 5 yards of open field and tackle anyone once he closes in on them. McKinney doesn't explode in nearly the same way, and you can see RBs beat his angles for extra yardage. He looks fast enough in a straight line to succeed, but that kind of high-end short area athleticism is missing.
2 is his tackling can get pretty sloppy. For as patient and in-control as he is in coverage, he gets kind of sloppy and aggressive when it comes to tackling. He likes to come in high and go for kill shots, and while that looks cool when it works (check out 6:08 vs Bama when he ends Joe Burrow), he ends up on the wrong end of highlights when he misses. 9:03 vs Auburn, he gets his helmet blown off en route to an Auburn rushing touchdown, 12:36 he gets absolutely victimized by a spin move. I think he's still rolling around on the turf of Bryant-Denney Stadium to this day.
I'm personally really torn about McKinney's evaluation, honestly. Safety is a position that comes down so much to feel and instincts. For DEs, you need to be an athlete. You're one on one with Tyron Smith, get around him. For CBs, you need to be an athlete. Julio Jones wants to run a nine route on you, better be able to turn and run with him. Safety's not a game of mano a mano matchups like that, outside of snaps in man coverage. It tends to be more cerebral.
McKinney has that mental-game part down cold, and as versatile as he is, there's no way he's going to fail. He can start somewhere for almost any team and be productive. In Dallas, he could come in day 1 at either SS or FS and start for 5 years at position we've struggled with for the last 20. But at pick #17, is it not fair to expect a good football player who can also be a game-breaking athlete? I'm going to be watching his Combine closely.
My notepad logs on McKinney I took down while watching him.
Auburn
LSU
I'll start with the analytics look at scouting for safeties, because it's short and simple.
https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbers/nfl-draft-analytics-def?page=2
The analytics for safeties isn't really clear-cut. No stats translate very well, and no Combine drills translate well outside of the 40. Out of the top 18 safeties in the league, 14 ran at least a 4.52, but there were still plenty of average safeties that made it with slower 40s, so 4.52's not a hard cutoff for success either. It's a position you really need to lean on tape to scout.
So as far as the tape then.... McKinney puts some really good stuff on there.
The biggest things that strikes me about McKinney are how versatile and polished he is. High-round Bama guys virtually always come out pro-ready, and McKinney's no exception. He's an intelligent, exceptionally aware, technically refined athlete who can play box SS, FS, slot corner and even nickel LB interchangeably. His versatility and crimson jersey will inevitably get him Minkah Fitzpatrick comps, but they're not off-base.
When he wants to cover the slot in man, he can backpedal and sit on their break like a CB. When he plays in the box, he can work through trash and has a penchant for big hits. When he plays FS... he's off the screen half the time so I can't see him, but he only gave up 1 deep throw in the two games I watched (0:55 vs Bama, and even then, that was a good throw by Burrow). He can play pretty much anywhere on the back seven and do it at a high level. Heck, he played probably 80% of the snaps at the LSU game between slot CB and LB, and finished with 13 tackles, 1 sack, and a strip on Burrow.
And I want to go back to his awareness for a second, because this guy is AWESOME in zone. He just understands the concepts so easily. When receivers leave his zone, he immediately switches targets to the next guy. If there's no one in his zone, he starts running backwards to cover the deep route he knows is developing behind him. He's comfortable slow-playing things and just sitting there backpedaling and reading, but he triggers as soon as he sees the throw coming. It's all textbook and he makes it look so easy.
His last play of the Auburn game at 9:32 really highlights this awareness. 3rd and 7, he sees the QB rolling out on the boot, and takes a couple steps towards him. As he's moving forward, he sees the TE crossing behind him on a boot-over, so he stops his path to the QB and drops back to cover him, Realizing he's getting set up for a trap, he snaps his head around behind him like a freaking owl to see if he has any help. When he recognizes that he's got a linebacker covering the TE trying to sneak by him, McKinney switches targets again, then closes in and drops the QB.
They're a little more pedestrian, but I also like his pass breakups at 5:25 in the Auburn game (two verticals? no! underneath checkdown? yes!) and 6:41 in the Auburn game (just ninja-senses that deep-over coming).
As far as weaknesses, there's two problems I'm seeing with him.
1 is the lack of a second gear. Even when he hits attack mode and decides to close, he's not overly fast, and doesn't seem to have that kind of burst to instantly close. If you watch Derwin James, for example, he has so much burst that he can virtually teleport across 5 yards of open field and tackle anyone once he closes in on them. McKinney doesn't explode in nearly the same way, and you can see RBs beat his angles for extra yardage. He looks fast enough in a straight line to succeed, but that kind of high-end short area athleticism is missing.
2 is his tackling can get pretty sloppy. For as patient and in-control as he is in coverage, he gets kind of sloppy and aggressive when it comes to tackling. He likes to come in high and go for kill shots, and while that looks cool when it works (check out 6:08 vs Bama when he ends Joe Burrow), he ends up on the wrong end of highlights when he misses. 9:03 vs Auburn, he gets his helmet blown off en route to an Auburn rushing touchdown, 12:36 he gets absolutely victimized by a spin move. I think he's still rolling around on the turf of Bryant-Denney Stadium to this day.
I'm personally really torn about McKinney's evaluation, honestly. Safety is a position that comes down so much to feel and instincts. For DEs, you need to be an athlete. You're one on one with Tyron Smith, get around him. For CBs, you need to be an athlete. Julio Jones wants to run a nine route on you, better be able to turn and run with him. Safety's not a game of mano a mano matchups like that, outside of snaps in man coverage. It tends to be more cerebral.
McKinney has that mental-game part down cold, and as versatile as he is, there's no way he's going to fail. He can start somewhere for almost any team and be productive. In Dallas, he could come in day 1 at either SS or FS and start for 5 years at position we've struggled with for the last 20. But at pick #17, is it not fair to expect a good football player who can also be a game-breaking athlete? I'm going to be watching his Combine closely.
My notepad logs on McKinney I took down while watching him.
Auburn
0:40 spy
0:55 Jesus
1:33 Triggers downhill and gets to the pile from a LONG way out.
1:46 nothing he could really do there.
2:13 put in man coverage against a slot, did pretty well there.
3:45 fumble!
4:06 watch that jump when he sees the QB's head turn.
4:32 stoned by RB on a blitz
5:15 gets caught by the over-under concept. Tries to read the QB's eyes and not jump anything, but he is forced into no-man's land.
5:25 very nice job in zone. Doesn't get baited deep by the two verticals, comes back underneath and breaks up the pass.
6:12 like how he starts closing as soon as he sees the throw, likes how he stays inside and uses the sideline as a defender, but you can see a lack of burst here when he tries to finish the RB off.
6:32 doesn't see the cutback coming, can't close on the RB.
6:41 nearly gets a pick. Stays underneath, then realizes the receiver behind him is open and breaks to close that gap. Great awareness.
7:04 gets caught rotating left at the snap, then has to catch up to the running back. Struggles to close.
7:25 slips, nice job getting around the lineman to tackle the screen.
8:16 shows some speed to get out to the flat, funny how he gets stiff-armed on the route by the running back.
8:35 shows some burst when he recognizes the out route
9:03 comes in way too high and gets his helmet taken off.
9:32 VERY nice! Locks on to the quarterback, disengages to cover the TE sneaking behind him, head-checks to make sure his teammate has him, then closes on the QB.
0:55 Jesus
1:33 Triggers downhill and gets to the pile from a LONG way out.
1:46 nothing he could really do there.
2:13 put in man coverage against a slot, did pretty well there.
3:45 fumble!
4:06 watch that jump when he sees the QB's head turn.
4:32 stoned by RB on a blitz
5:15 gets caught by the over-under concept. Tries to read the QB's eyes and not jump anything, but he is forced into no-man's land.
5:25 very nice job in zone. Doesn't get baited deep by the two verticals, comes back underneath and breaks up the pass.
6:12 like how he starts closing as soon as he sees the throw, likes how he stays inside and uses the sideline as a defender, but you can see a lack of burst here when he tries to finish the RB off.
6:32 doesn't see the cutback coming, can't close on the RB.
6:41 nearly gets a pick. Stays underneath, then realizes the receiver behind him is open and breaks to close that gap. Great awareness.
7:04 gets caught rotating left at the snap, then has to catch up to the running back. Struggles to close.
7:25 slips, nice job getting around the lineman to tackle the screen.
8:16 shows some speed to get out to the flat, funny how he gets stiff-armed on the route by the running back.
8:35 shows some burst when he recognizes the out route
9:03 comes in way too high and gets his helmet taken off.
9:32 VERY nice! Locks on to the quarterback, disengages to cover the TE sneaking behind him, head-checks to make sure his teammate has him, then closes on the QB.
LSU
0:00 comes in high and whiffs
0:55 gets beat along the sideline, but Burrow did drop it in there really well.
1:07 gives up a catch again... I'm blaming the under coverage for not getting deep enough
2:36 works through trash
3:18 tries to go up over the RB for a swat
3:23 NICE fill
3:38 slot CB blitzer. Gets blocked but makes the tackle on the far sideline.
3:58 great awareness, but gets faked out by the runner.
4:12 gets body-checked by the slot, but prevents the throw
4:48 gets his head down and fights in trash
5:12 cleanup tackle
6:08 DECKS Burrow on a blitz
7:09 gets off his guy in zone, but not fast enough
8:31 Great play! strips Burrow on blitz.
10:05 W in man coverage
11:08 Look at that close!
11:21 Look at that close again!
12:02 Fake blitz, still takes away the slant
12:28 Fill that hole!
12:36 BAD whiff. Gets put in the spin cycle.
13:22 NICE! Sack on Joe Burrow.
14:03 Comes in high and gets dropped with the stiff arm.
0:55 gets beat along the sideline, but Burrow did drop it in there really well.
1:07 gives up a catch again... I'm blaming the under coverage for not getting deep enough
2:36 works through trash
3:18 tries to go up over the RB for a swat
3:23 NICE fill
3:38 slot CB blitzer. Gets blocked but makes the tackle on the far sideline.
3:58 great awareness, but gets faked out by the runner.
4:12 gets body-checked by the slot, but prevents the throw
4:48 gets his head down and fights in trash
5:12 cleanup tackle
6:08 DECKS Burrow on a blitz
7:09 gets off his guy in zone, but not fast enough
8:31 Great play! strips Burrow on blitz.
10:05 W in man coverage
11:08 Look at that close!
11:21 Look at that close again!
12:02 Fake blitz, still takes away the slant
12:28 Fill that hole!
12:36 BAD whiff. Gets put in the spin cycle.
13:22 NICE! Sack on Joe Burrow.
14:03 Comes in high and gets dropped with the stiff arm.
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