True. But offensive skill guys rotate all the time, so the idea that defense subs far more than offense isn't true.
At this point I just feel like someone is more concerned with me being wrong than the actual facts being put out there. So here goes....
Common sense should be able to tell you that the offense subs in-and-out much less than the defense, if for no other reason than OVER HALF of the offense does not sub in-or-out unless there is an injury or the player is benched. But if the QB or any of the Offensive Linemen in the game are the true starter, and not a backup playing for an injured starter, then you can all but eliminate the benching half.
- QBs
- Dak has played 99% or better of the offensive snaps every year but his rookie year when he dropped all the way down to 96%
- Even QBs that are fragile like Carson Wentz, plays 99%-100% of the offensive snaps when he is able to play 16 games
- I think we can all agree, this is a no-brainer if you have what is considered a "franchise QB"
- O Line
- Every year Fredbeard played = 100% of the snaps
- Zach Martin has played 99%-100% of the snaps in 5 of his 7 years, with the two other being 96% and 82% (he missed 2 games that year)
- Tyron Smith, in the only 3 years he has played 16 games, 100% of the snaps
- La'el Collins, when he became the starter at RT = 100%, 100%, 89% (missed 1 game that season)
I'm hoping that his is common football knowledge. QBs and OLine RARELY come out of games. The only real non-injury or non-benching situation I can think of is pulling the starters with a big lead or big deficit late in a game.
So right there, you are looking at 99%-100% being the norm for over half the offense if they are at least relatively healthy.
Now on to RBs.
RBs:
- Elliot is a mid-to-high 80's snap count guy with 83%, 84% and 89% in the last 3 seasons following his suspension during year 2, with his rookie and 2nd year being 67% and 55%
- But many believe Zeke subs out a lot, so lets look at some of the the other Top 5 Rushers last year
- Derreck Henry = played only 59% of the offensive snaps last year and has gone, in order with 25%, 40%, 41%, 59% and 74% this year so far
- Nick Chubb = again much lower than Zeke with 36%, 69%, 44%
- Christian McCaffrey = 70%, 91%, 93% and 42% (only has played 2 games this year)
- Chris Carson = 14%, 43%, 65%, 56%
- So outside of Elliot and McCaffrey, RBs only play 50% - 60% of the snaps. I was kind of surprised by this because again, many complain that Zeke subs himself out too often, so I guess that is not the case, like AT ALL
WRs:
- Cooper (* = Dallas) = 86%, 89%, 70%, 31% / 48%* (trade year), 75%, 85%
- Gallup = 69%, 75%, 88%
- Lamb = 75%
- So far this year, our "top 2" WRs are playing 85%+ of the offensive snaps, with the 3rd being in "only" 75% of the time. Clearly we play a lot of 3 WR sets. But lets look around the league
- Michael Thomas = 75%, 82%, 88%, 89% and 21% (1 game this year)
- Julio Jones = 79%, 27%, 80%, 85%, 68%, 75%, 77%, 70% and 48%
- DeAndre Hopkins = 89%, 95%, 97%, 97%, 93%, 99%, 91%, and 95% (WOW!!!)
- Jarvis Landry = 62%, 84%, 94%, 90%, 88%, 94%, and 70%
- Mike Evans = 77%, 79%, 83%, 81%, 84%, 70% and 85%
- So outside of Hopkins who is an absolute monster, if a WR is healthy, I think Mid to High 80% is not out of the question.
TEs:
- Witten (just for old times sake) = 98%, 99%, 99%, 99%, 96%, 98%, 75% and 32%
- * Snap counts only go back to 2012
- I would use another Cowboys TE, but even in the year Witten took off, we did not have a definitive "starting" TE
- Travis Kelce = 0%, 66%, 92%, 87%, 85%, 95%, 92% and 86%
- George Kittle = 54%, 88%, 76%, 49%
- Zach Ertz = 41%, 50%, 68%, 75%, 69%, 92%, 80% and 92%
- So again, if they can stay healthy TEs can hit high 80% to low 90% with relative ease if they are a quality starting TE
So, assuming we play 3 WR sets, with 1 TE and 1 RB most of the time: You are looking at 6 of 11 offensive players playing 99% of the snaps. 1 of 11 playing 55% of snaps. 3 of 11 playing ~80% of the snaps, and 1 of 11 playing ~85% of the snaps. Overall, that means the starters on offense are playing ~ 88% of the total offense stats.
Now a quick breakdown of the defense:
- DE = ~80% of snaps (Lawrence has yet to pass 72%)
- DT = ~75% of snaps (The only DT I looked up that was even semi-consistently over this was Aaron Donald)
- LB = ~85% of snaps
- CB = ~85% of snaps
- S = ~95% of snaps
So when playing nickel defense with 2 DE, 2 DT, 2 LB, 3CB and 2 S, you are looking at your defensive starters playing 84% of the snaps.
So 88% vs 84% isn't huge but it is clearly different. And that is not adding "every down" RBs like Elliot and McCaffery, who by themselves bump the offense up to 91%.
One could even say I was being WAY TO generous with the Defensive Line percentages, but I wanted more of a "best case scenario" with those two positions than the "average" player.
In any case, yes, the defense substitutes in-and-out way more than offensive does. Especially if you don't have RB that only plays half the snaps.