Yakuza Rich: Dallas D Needs to Continue to be Stingy

[Yakuza Rich]

Dallas D Needs to Continue to be Stingy
by Yakuza Rich
http://yakuzarich.blogspot.com



One of the things I was happy about last week against the Browns was the defense only allowed 10 points to an offense that was very potent last season. But the big part was the defense actually played well instead of the Browns offense playing terrible, for the most part. Sure, there was the Braylon Edwards dropped TD pass, but you could call that even for the Orlando Scandrick penalty that came after the Browns failed to convert a 3rd down and extended their TD drive.

Last season one of the issues I felt with the defense was even when it played well, it had a propensity to give up more points than it should. Last year, Dallas gave up a QB Rating of 75.1 to opposing defenses, yet they allowed 325 total points (or 20.3 ppg). Seems pretty high to me. So I ran some statistics and found that QB Rating allowed does correlate very strongly with Total Points allowed. Meaning, that in general the lower the QB rating allowed, it's very likely the defense will give up fewer points...and vice versa.

With that strong correlation, I was able to run a regression which gives me a formula for projecting the points allowed based on QB rating. Here's the formula:

Projected Points Allowed (for 16 game season) = (QB Rating Allowed * 6.192366) + (-165.031)

So with that formula, I was able to project that Dallas should've given up 300 total points last season based on their QB rating allowed of 75.1. However, like I stated earlier...they actually gave up 325 points last season, a difference of 25 points. So I wanted to see how that stacked up against the rest of the league last year. Here's what I got.

RNK.....TEAM..............PROJ VS. ACTUAL POINT DIFF

1. Minnesota Vikings 58.3699230959903
2. New Orleans Saints 47.0090053984117
3. New England Patriots 44.5925198054379
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 39.6847337975253
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 36.8270239210417
6. Philadelphia Eagles 32.2157255663178
7. Houston Texans 30.5741967570917
8. San Francisco 49ers 27.6624416137938
9. Indianapolis Colts 26.8691617817
10. Carolina Panthers 14.9390835900558
11. Green Bay Packers 12.1116041680745
12. Chicago Bears 11.4621370880776
13. Washington Commanders 2.40015355049252
14. Cincinnati Bengals 2.32778523533204
15. Jacksonville Jaguars 2.20778729554706
16. Kansas City Chiefs 1.55038194477959
17. New York Giants 0.412060956648702
18. Tennessee Titans -0.699998712365527
19. Seattle Seahawks -3.9885480947836
20. Baltimore Ravens -6.58000077258066
21. New York Jets -8.54183204730771
22. Detroit Lions -9.61023122708298
23. San Diego Chargers -15.5656468596198
24. Buffalo Bills -16.8303814297259
25. Dallas Cowboys -24.9845789593983
26. Denver Broncos -27.2453443941189
27. Miami Dolphins -29.8566427488427
28. Cleveland Browns -30.5879390433513
29. Arizona Cardinals -32.7262600314824
30. Atlanta Falcons -32.8645810196134
31. Oakland Raiders -74.4535871906057
32. St. Louis Rams -76.6801530354387

Dallas wound up with the 8th worst differential last season. And take a look at the teams ranked 20th or worse. If you don't include Dallas, they combined for a 71-121 record.

Last week Dallas allowed a 75 QB rating to the Cleveland Browns. That projects to roughly 18.7 points allowed in a game. So the Cowboys "overachieved" by only allowing 10 points in that game. Let's see if Dallas can continue that pace tonight.






YAKUZA

 

[Real1st]

Yup the defense taking it to the next level is the reason we get to the super bowl or not

 

[DaBoys4Life]

Dallas D Needs to Continue to be Stingy
by Yakuza Rich
http://yakuzarich.blogspot.com



One of the things I was happy about last week against the Browns was the defense only allowed 10 points to an offense that was very potent last season. But the big part was the defense actually played well instead of the Browns offense playing terrible, for the most part. Sure, there was the Braylon Edwards dropped TD pass, but you could call that even for the Orlando Scandrick penalty that came after the Browns failed to convert a 3rd down and extended their TD drive.

Last season one of the issues I felt with the defense was even when it played well, it had a propensity to give up more points than it should. Last year, Dallas gave up a QB Rating of 75.1 to opposing defenses, yet they allowed 325 total points (or 20.3 ppg). Seems pretty high to me. So I ran some statistics and found that QB Rating allowed does correlate very strongly with Total Points allowed. Meaning, that in general the lower the QB rating allowed, it's very likely the defense will give up fewer points...and vice versa.

With that strong correlation, I was able to run a regression which gives me a formula for projecting the points allowed based on QB rating. Here's the formula:

Projected Points Allowed (for 16 game season) = (QB Rating Allowed * 6.192366) + (-165.031)

So with that formula, I was able to project that Dallas should've given up 300 total points last season based on their QB rating allowed of 75.1. However, like I stated earlier...they actually gave up 325 points last season, a difference of 25 points. So I wanted to see how that stacked up against the rest of the league last year. Here's what I got.

RNK.....TEAM..............PROJ VS. ACTUAL POINT DIFF

1. Minnesota Vikings 58.3699230959903
2. New Orleans Saints 47.0090053984117
3. New England Patriots 44.5925198054379
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 39.6847337975253
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 36.8270239210417
6. Philadelphia Eagles 32.2157255663178
7. Houston Texans 30.5741967570917
8. San Francisco 49ers 27.6624416137938
9. Indianapolis Colts 26.8691617817
10. Carolina Panthers 14.9390835900558
11. Green Bay Packers 12.1116041680745
12. Chicago Bears 11.4621370880776
13. Washington Commanders 2.40015355049252
14. Cincinnati Bengals 2.32778523533204
15. Jacksonville Jaguars 2.20778729554706
16. Kansas City Chiefs 1.55038194477959
17. New York Giants 0.412060956648702
18. Tennessee Titans -0.699998712365527
19. Seattle Seahawks -3.9885480947836
20. Baltimore Ravens -6.58000077258066
21. New York Jets -8.54183204730771
22. Detroit Lions -9.61023122708298
23. San Diego Chargers -15.5656468596198
24. Buffalo Bills -16.8303814297259
25. Dallas Cowboys -24.9845789593983
26. Denver Broncos -27.2453443941189
27. Miami Dolphins -29.8566427488427
28. Cleveland Browns -30.5879390433513
29. Arizona Cardinals -32.7262600314824
30. Atlanta Falcons -32.8645810196134
31. Oakland Raiders -74.4535871906057
32. St. Louis Rams -76.6801530354387

Dallas wound up with the 8th worst differential last season. And take a look at the teams ranked 20th or worse. If you don't include Dallas, they combined for a 71-121 record.

Last week Dallas allowed a 75 QB rating to the Cleveland Browns. That projects to roughly 18.7 points allowed in a game. So the Cowboys "overachieved" by only allowing 10 points in that game. Let's see if Dallas can continue that pace tonight.






YAKUZA

Do these stats count TD's allowed on ST??? INT returns for TD's and fumbles returned for TD's????

 

[YosemiteSam]

Last week Dallas allowed a 75 QB rating to the Cleveland Browns. That projects to roughly 18.7 points allowed in a game. So the Cowboys "overachieved" by only allowing 10 points in that game. Let's see if Dallas can continue that pace tonight.

The Cowboys didn't overachieve against the Browns. The Browns under-achieved by dropping several balls that should have been caught.

I watched the Steeler / Browns game last night. Braylon Edwards almost looks like he doesn't care. He is dropping stuff left and right. He needs to spend some time with the JUGS machine.

Anderson looked terrible last night, but if he had been just a bit better and Edwards wasn't such a bum at catching the ball, the Browns could have knocked off the Steelers lastnight.

 

[DaBoys4Life]

The Cowboys didn't overachieve against the Browns. The Browns under-achieved by dropping several balls that should have been caught.

I watched the Steeler / Browns game last night. Braylon Edwards almost looks like he doesn't care. He is dropping stuff left and right. He needs to spend some time with the JUGS machine.

Anderson looked terrible last night, but if he had been just a bit better and Edwards wasn't such a bum at catching the ball, the Browns could have knocked off the Steelers lastnight.

I think the Browns aren't going to play till they get a coaching change.

 

[TellerMorrow34]

We need the defense to step it up a bit and take that next move to the next level. That will help us out a lot. Hopefully that begins tonight.

 

[Clove]

I like stats, but I also like what my eyes tell me, and my eyes tell me that our pass rush needs to be more consistant.

 

[Real1st]

I like stats, but I also like what my eyes tell me, and my eyes tell me that our pass rush needs to be more consistant.

We really didn't bring as much heat as we usually do. But the push up the middle is what will take this defense over the top. Tank and Ratliff need to get it going. I really liked the blitzes up the middle from Zach and Bradie against Cleveland. I noticed the steelers watched the film of us having success from blitzing up the middle against Cleveland and they did it all game last night on the browns.

 

[NoLuv4Jerry]

been saying it all offseason....this team will take the next step when this defense plays up to it's draft status/salary/potential. We have an experienced defensive coaching staff...we have invested high picks....we have given out lots of bonus money....we have lots of speed on defense...and can overcome injury to anyone on that side of the ball except Ware. You cannot say that for the offense....we are in trouble if Romo gets hurt....we are in trouble it TO gets hurt....we are in trouble if Flozell or Davis or Columbo gets hurt. Would we really want to play with a couple of rookie RBs if Barber get's hurt? The defense is where this team should make it's most significant progress this year.

 

[Boyzmamacita]

Turnovers. Turnovers. Turnovers. And pass rush. These are the areas where I want to see improvement. This defense has not been the momentum-changing machine it is built to be. You couple a big play defense with our big play offense, and this watered-down league won't know what hit it.

 

[YosemiteSam]

Turnovers. Turnovers. Turnovers. And pass rush. These are the areas where I want to see improvement. This defense has not been the momentum-changing machine it is built to be. You couple a big play defense with our big play offense, and this watered-down league won't know what hit it.

I want to see 10 sacks, 4 INTs, 3 FF, and less than 100 total yards for Philly.

 

[Yoshimitsu]

This defense will always be below average.

Alot of overrated players on that side of the ball.

 

[jobberone]

It's turnovers and penalties that make the difference although some teams are just too passive on defense.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Do these stats count TD's allowed on ST??? INT returns for TD's and fumbles returned for TD's????

No they do not. I was considering that, but it would take a bit more time.






YAKUZA

 

[fortdick]

Dallas D Needs to Continue to be Stingy
by Yakuza Rich
http://yakuzarich.blogspot.com



One of the things I was happy about last week against the Browns was the defense only allowed 10 points to an offense that was very potent last season. But the big part was the defense actually played well instead of the Browns offense playing terrible, for the most part. Sure, there was the Braylon Edwards dropped TD pass, but you could call that even for the Orlando Scandrick penalty that came after the Browns failed to convert a 3rd down and extended their TD drive.

Last season one of the issues I felt with the defense was even when it played well, it had a propensity to give up more points than it should. Last year, Dallas gave up a QB Rating of 75.1 to opposing defenses, yet they allowed 325 total points (or 20.3 ppg). Seems pretty high to me. So I ran some statistics and found that QB Rating allowed does correlate very strongly with Total Points allowed. Meaning, that in general the lower the QB rating allowed, it's very likely the defense will give up fewer points...and vice versa.

With that strong correlation, I was able to run a regression which gives me a formula for projecting the points allowed based on QB rating. Here's the formula:

Projected Points Allowed (for 16 game season) = (QB Rating Allowed * 6.192366) + (-165.031)

So with that formula, I was able to project that Dallas should've given up 300 total points last season based on their QB rating allowed of 75.1. However, like I stated earlier...they actually gave up 325 points last season, a difference of 25 points. So I wanted to see how that stacked up against the rest of the league last year. Here's what I got.

RNK.....TEAM..............PROJ VS. ACTUAL POINT DIFF

1. Minnesota Vikings 58.3699230959903
2. New Orleans Saints 47.0090053984117
3. New England Patriots 44.5925198054379
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 39.6847337975253
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 36.8270239210417
6. Philadelphia Eagles 32.2157255663178
7. Houston Texans 30.5741967570917
8. San Francisco 49ers 27.6624416137938
9. Indianapolis Colts 26.8691617817
10. Carolina Panthers 14.9390835900558
11. Green Bay Packers 12.1116041680745
12. Chicago Bears 11.4621370880776
13. Washington Commanders 2.40015355049252
14. Cincinnati Bengals 2.32778523533204
15. Jacksonville Jaguars 2.20778729554706
16. Kansas City Chiefs 1.55038194477959
17. New York Giants 0.412060956648702
18. Tennessee Titans -0.699998712365527
19. Seattle Seahawks -3.9885480947836
20. Baltimore Ravens -6.58000077258066
21. New York Jets -8.54183204730771
22. Detroit Lions -9.61023122708298
23. San Diego Chargers -15.5656468596198
24. Buffalo Bills -16.8303814297259
25. Dallas Cowboys -24.9845789593983
26. Denver Broncos -27.2453443941189
27. Miami Dolphins -29.8566427488427
28. Cleveland Browns -30.5879390433513
29. Arizona Cardinals -32.7262600314824
30. Atlanta Falcons -32.8645810196134
31. Oakland Raiders -74.4535871906057
32. St. Louis Rams -76.6801530354387

Dallas wound up with the 8th worst differential last season. And take a look at the teams ranked 20th or worse. If you don't include Dallas, they combined for a 71-121 record.

Last week Dallas allowed a 75 QB rating to the Cleveland Browns. That projects to roughly 18.7 points allowed in a game. So the Cowboys "overachieved" by only allowing 10 points in that game. Let's see if Dallas can continue that pace tonight.






YAKUZA

Huh?



Reading Yakuza's stuff make my head hurt.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

The Cowboys didn't overachieve against the Browns. The Browns under-achieved by dropping several balls that should have been caught.

I tend to disagree. The only significant dropped pass was by Edwards on what would've been a long TD pass. I can't remember the exact yardage, but let's say it would've been a 60 yard TD pass had Edwards caught it.

So instead of going 11 for 24 with 114 yards and 1 TD and 0 INT's, Anderson would've gone 12 for 24 with 174 yards, 2 TD's and 0 INT's. That raises Anderson's QB rating from a 74 to a 101.8.

However, the projected points allowed goes way up as well all the way up to 29 points a game. So yeah, Anderson's QB rating would've gone way up and the Browns would've scored 17 points instead of 10 points, but the defense still "overachieved" because they would've projected giving up 29 points and instead only gave up 17 points.

It seemed to me that last year the defense could shut down opposing offenses on the majority of possessions. But when the opposing team started to move the ball a little bit, they would score and usually score TD's. So last week when the Browns started to move the ball a little bit, for the most part they didn't let the Browns score. That's how I came up with the idea for this post and I wanted to see if I was onto something (not to say that I conclude that I'm perfectly correct).






YAKUZA

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I like stats, but I also like what my eyes tell me, and my eyes tell me that our pass rush needs to be more consistant.

I don't necessarily agree with that. We ranked 3rd in sacks last year and 5th in pass attempts per sack. And out of the top pass protecting teams last season, Dallas did extremely well in pass attempts per sack compared to how the rest of the league did (the only team that was the exception was the Commanders).

We seem to get some flak for not bringing down Anderson, a guy that was sacked only 14 times last season, only Tom Brady (whom Dallas sacked 3 times last year) was sacked less. Not to forget that Anderson only threw the ball 24 times against the Cowboys. Nobody denies the Steelers pass rush and they had a whopping 2 sacks against Anderson on 32 throws.






YAKUZA

 

[LeonDixson]

Rich, I may be dense but I'm having trouble understanding the chart. Can you take one line and describe what the numbers mean? Thanks.

 

[percyhoward]

Quote:Originally Posted by DaBoys4Life
Do these stats count TD's allowed on ST??? INT returns for TD's and fumbles returned for TD's????

No they do not. I was considering that, but it would take a bit more time.

I'm gonna try to keep track of defensive points allowed all year, unless somebody knows where there's easy access to that stat. As for last year, Football Outsiders says the Dallas D faced 178 drives and gave up 1.64 points per drive. So I guess that means our points allowed (defense ONLY) was around 290 last year, give or take a couple points.

Someone will know.