Yakuza Rich: Dallas Should Avoid the Giants Blueprint

[Yakuza Rich]

Dallas Should Avoid the Giants Blueprint
By Yakuza Rich
http://yakuzarich.blogspot.com


I don’t want to knock the G-Men for the Super Bowl victory, but things need to be put in perspective. It’s natural for fans and media writers to claim that the Super Bowl champion did things the right way and that other teams need to follow suit in order to win the Super Bowl. But that’s forgetting that the G-Men almost fired Coughlin, they didn’t like their QB until he started to perform in the postseason, Eli Manning did lead all QB’s in turnovers, Michael Strahan contemplated retirement while sitting out almost all of training camp, and Plaxico Burress didn’t practice the entire season due to a nagging ankle injury.

But let’s look at the G-Men from a statistical standpoint. One factor I always take a look at is what I call “QB Rating Differential.” QB rating differential is the team’s QB rating subtracted by the QB rating allowed on defense. The bigger the number, the better. It has the highest correlation to winning in the NFL outside of scoring margin. It even has a higher correlation to winning than turnover margin. 2007 was a perfect example as the correlation coefficient for QB rating differential was a whopping 0.843308 while the correlation coefficient for turnover margin was 0.632695 (which is still a strong correlation, but not nearly as strong as the QB Rating Differential).

When studying the Giants, I saw that they have a very poor QB rating differential of -9.5. But I wanted to see just how poor that was compared to teams that have gone to the last 30 Super Bowls, dating back to 1978. And here’s what I found:

1989 San Francisco 49ers 46.3
1994 San Francisco 49ers 43.3
1999 St. Louis Rams 42.5
1996 Green Bay Packers 40.3
1991 Washington Commanders 39.1
2007 New England Patriots 37.9
2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37.9
1984 Miami Dolphins 37.1
1984 San Francisco 49ers 36.3
1980 Philadelphia Eagles 34.4
1997 Green Bay Packers 32.9
1991 Buffalo Bills 32.4
2001 St. Louis Rams 32.3
1978 Pittsburgh Steelers 29.7
1978 Dallas Cowboys 29.4
1990 New York Giants 28.4
2003 New England Patriots 28.1
1981 San Francisco 49ers 27.5
1988 Cincinnati Bengals 27.4
1983 Washington Commanders 27.4
1985 Chicago Bears 26.1
1990 Buffalo Bills 25
1982 Washington Commanders 24.1
1993 Dallas Cowboys 21.5
2006 Indianapolis Colts 20.6
2004 Philadelphia Eagles 20.6
1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 20.2
2002 Oakland Raiders 19.9
2005 Seattle Seahawks 19.4
1995 Dallas Cowboys 19.4
1992 Dallas Cowboys 18.9
1987 Washington Commanders 17.7
2004 New England Patriots 17.2
2001 New England Patriots 16.7
1998 Atlanta Falcons 15.9
1997 Denver Broncos 15.9
2005 Pittsburgh Steelers 15.4
1982 Miami Dolphins 15.3
1987 Denver Broncos 14.6
1981 Cincinnati Bengals 14.4
1996 New England Patriots 14.3
1985 New England Patriots 13.7
1998 Denver Broncos 13
1983 Oakland Raiders 12.9
1988 San Francisco 49ers 11.3
1993 Buffalo Bills 11
2000 Baltimore Ravens 10.2
1989 Denver Broncos 9.6
2000 New York Giants 9.4
1980 Oakland Raiders 8.2
2006 Chicago Bears 7
1986 New York Giants 6.4
2003 Carolina Panthers 4.8
1992 Buffalo Bills 4.8
1986 Denver Broncos 2.8
1999 Tennessee Titans 0.8
1995 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.2
1994 San Diego Chargers -0.7
1979 Los Angeles Rams -3.3
2007 New York Giants -9.5

Out of the 60 teams that have gone to the Super Bowl in the last 30 years, the 2007 Giants had the worst QB rating margin of them all.

But how about the popular turnover margin?

1983 Washington Commanders 43
2000 Baltimore Ravens 23
1985 Chicago Bears 23
1981 San Francisco 49ers 23
1998 Atlanta Falcons 20
1990 New York Giants 20
1999 Tennessee Titans 18
1991 Washington Commanders 18
2003 New England Patriots 17
2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
2007 New England Patriots 16
1984 San Francisco 49ers 16
1996 Green Bay Packers 15
1990 Buffalo Bills 14
1981 Cincinnati Bengals 13
2002 Oakland Raiders 12
1993 Buffalo Bills 12
1989 San Francisco 49ers 12
1988 San Francisco 49ers 12
1994 San Francisco 49ers 11
1989 Denver Broncos 11
1987 Denver Broncos 11
1986 New York Giants 11
2005 Seattle Seahawks 10
1998 Denver Broncos 10
1997 Denver Broncos 10
2004 New England Patriots 9
1994 San Diego Chargers 9
1988 Cincinnati Bengals 9
1978 Pittsburgh Steelers 9
2006 Chicago Bears 8
1984 Miami Dolphins 8
1982 Washington Commanders 8
1980 Oakland Raiders 8
2006 Indianapolis Colts 7
2005 Pittsburgh Steelers 7
2001 New England Patriots 7
2000 New York Giants 7
1996 New England Patriots 7
1992 Dallas Cowboys 7
1980 Philadelphia Eagles 7
2004 Philadelphia Eagles 6
1993 Dallas Cowboys 6
1986 Denver Broncos 6
1999 St. Louis Rams 5
1985 New England Patriots 5
1982 Miami Dolphins 4
1995 Dallas Cowboys 2
1991 Buffalo Bills 2
1978 Dallas Cowboys 1
1997 Green Bay Packers 0
1995 Pittsburgh Steelers 0
1992 Buffalo Bills -3
1987 Washington Commanders -3
2003 Carolina Panthers -5
1979 Los Angeles Rams -8
2007 New York Giants -10
2001 St. Louis Rams -10
1979 Pittsburgh Steelers -10
1983 Oakland Raiders -13

The 2007 G-Men finished second to last in turnover margin for all 60 teams that went to the last 30 Super Bowls. There were only 8 teams that finished the regular season with a negative turnover margin and the G-Men were one of four teams that won the Super Bowl despite a negative turnover margin.

Again, this is not a knock on the G-Men’s success, but an attempt to glorify the right aspect of the G-Men’s Super Bowl title. The glory belongs in the G-Men overcoming outrageously improbable odds. Not the “blueprint’ they used to get there.



YAKUZA

 

[The Panch]

You seem to forget the fact that they won the turnover battle when it counts the most.....in the playoffs. Eli stopped turning the damn ball over at every other throw and had a QB post season rating in the 90's.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

You seem to forget the fact that they won the turnover battle when it counts the most.....in the playoffs.

Absolutely. But as you can see, teams that don't win the turnover battle in the regular season or win the QB rating differential very, very rarely do that in the playoffs as well. Which is what makes the G-Men's victory even more spectacular.




YAKUZA

 

[The Panch]

Absolutely. But as you can see, teams that don't win the turnover battle in the regular season or win the QB rating differential very, very rarely do that in the playoffs as well. Which is what makes the G-Men's victory even more spectacular.




YAKUZA

The fact is Eli went from being responsible for their regular season inconsistency to being the key responsibility for their post season success and letting the D dominate and make plays when they have to. Whether or not that continues into next season remains to be seen, but the fact is it worked. Plain and simple, you have to get hot at the right time. In week 17, New England created a monster.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

The fact is Eli went from being responsible for their regular season inconsistency to being the key responsibility for their post season success and letting the D dominate and make plays when they have to. Whether or not that continues into next season remains to be seen, but the fact is it worked. Plain and simple, you have to get hot at the right time.

Sure it worked. The fact is that they are the only case of it happening in the last 30 years (and I could've gone into all of the SB's if I wanted to). Chances are if you don't have a positive QB Rating Differential, you're not going to make the playoffs. Chances are if you don't have a positive turnover margin, you're not going to make the playoffs. If you have neither, then the chances of making the playoffs are slimmer.

And if you happen to make the playoffs despite being deficient in one or both of those areas, history has shown that it's almost certain that it's not going to magically change come playoff time.

87% of the teams that won a Super Bowl in the past 30 years had a postive turnover margin.

97% of the teams that won a Super Bowl in the past 30 years had a positive QB rating differential.

A look at these numbers show that getting hot at the right time rarely happens in the NFL.





YAKUZA

 

[sillycon]

I don't understand what you're trying to say... You think other teams will try to emulate the Giants by turning the ball over more? heh

 

[CATCH17]

They came together and got hot at the right time.

If we would've done that maybe we all would be celebrating.

 

[Tom [Giants fan]]

So, is he saying that the Giants are just that good to overcome these things?

 

[Yakuza Rich]

So, is he saying that the Giants are just that good to overcome these things?

I'm saying that they did something that nobody has done in the past 30 years (and probably longer if I delved into all of the Super Bowls)...win the Super Bowl despite a negative QB rating differential. They also had the lowest QB rating differential of any team that has *gone* to the SB in the last 30 years.

I could see if the G-Men had a good turnover margin to offset their QB rating differential, but the exact opposite was true.

That makes the G-Men's victory even more magnificent.

But it's not likely we'll see another team win the Super Bowl with a negative QB rating differential anytime soon. And with writers like Rick Gosselin claiming that Dallas should follow the G-Men's blueprint, they need to look a little harder at the G-men this year.

This also gives props to Coughlin for somehow bringing a team with this poor of a QB rating differential and turnover margin to the Super Bowl, much less winning the thing.




YAKUZA

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I don't understand what you're trying to say... You think other teams will try to emulate the Giants by turning the ball over more? heh

I'm saying the opposite. There's a lot of fans and writers out there that claim the G-Men have the blueprint to success and winning the Super Bowl. I'm saying that they had the direct opposite and Dallas should avoid this because what the G-Men did, even by making the Super Bowl, was extremely improbable.




YAKUZA

 

[Wolfpack]

Intersting read as always. Thanks.

I think you'd find that these stats are hard to read because the Giants were really three teams this year: 1) a bad defensive team with a hot/cold offense, 2) A solid defensive team with a turnover prone offense, 3) a great defensive team with a ball control offense.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

I think this sums it up best.


The Giants won the games that mattered... the playoff games.

 

[Sarge]

I didn't realize teams were going to try and 'follow suit' with respect to what the Giants did.

Bottom line - they got on a roll and got the job done when it counted.

 

[burmafrd]

Its rare that teams get hot like that just in the playoffs. BUT it can happen and it did. There really is nothing more to it then that.
THE question is: can Manning keep it up next season?

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Its rare that teams get hot like that just in the playoffs. BUT it can happen and it did. There really is nothing more to it then that.
THE question is: can Manning keep it up next season?

I kind of doubt it. He's been in the league for 4 years and can't get his QB rating anywhere near 85. He made quite a few bad decisions in the TB game, was okay in the Dallas game where the coaches did not want him throwing much, was unbelievable in the Packers game and then made almost countless bad decisions in the Pats game. Fortunately for him, his bad decisions worked out for him.

The one thing I noticed with the G-Men was they started to throw more out patterns and hitches for Manning since he seems to do better on those patterns that seems, slants and posts. The Patriots seemed to catch on to that in the Super Bowl and thats why he had a lot of bad decisions. I'm guessing defenses will notice that for next year and those turnovers will start showing up again.

From there the big key is getting some containment on the NYG pass rush and finding ways to limit Jacobs' effectiveness. Those were the two shining points of the Giants this year.



YAKUZA

 

[BAT]

The only blueprint that the Cowboys want to "steal" from the Giants is the pressure generated by their front 7. Giants not only accumulated a plethora of talented pass rushers but figured out how to successfully incorporate all these players so they are able to play on the field together.


The Giants had the best most intimidating pass rush all season long, that includes the regular AND the postseason.


In addition, the Giants were able to maintain their pressure scheme even with practically their entire secondary injured at different points throughout the year. There were no excuses when a starter went down, just plug in another player.


That has always been the beauty of the Jim Johnson scheme.

 

[dogberry]

That's why my obsession is to trade up for Sedric Ellis.