Yakuza Rich
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I think that this year is about as crucial of a season for the Cowboys organization as any because if we don’t at least make the playoffs here (and better yet, win a playoff game or two), I see a long period of struggles for the team.
Last year I predicted that the Eagles would NOT make the playoffs. My reasoning was somewhat simple. The NFL is a SYSTEM of parity.
FACT:
Since 1999, only 48% of the teams that have won their division have made the playoffs the following year.
FACT:
In the last four seasons, only 38% of the teams that have won their division have made the playoffs the following year.
My reasoning against the Eagles for 2011 was that they won the NFC East in 2010 and their QB, was injury prone. And that is typically the difference between those teams that win the division and return to the playoffs the following year and those who win the division and miss the playoffs the following year…injured QB’s. Furthermore, those QB’s with a history of injuries tend to get re-injured again.
For some reason, people just didn’t want to believe and they scoffed at the Eagles missing the playoffs as silliness. Well, they missed it and Vick got injured and had he not gotten injured, they had a chance of making the playoffs.
But, here’s the problem for the Cowboys. The G-Men won the division last year. Eli is their QB and Eli has no pattern of missing games due to an injury. The G-Men may not win the division this year, but from a historical perspective, they look like their odds of making the playoffs are extremely high. Particularly since, IIRC, the last SB champ to not make the playoffs the following season was the ’01 Patriots.
YIKES
And while I dismissed the Eagles last year, the fact is that Andy Reid has never missed the playoffs 2 seasons in a row.
DOUBLE YIKES
I don’t think Jerry is as over-reactionary as the press and fans like to claim. But, I don’t know if he’ll keep Garrett around if we miss the playoffs for the 3rd season in a row (even though 2010 wasn’t his fault).
I am also afraid that we will wind up thinking that Romo can play well into his late 30’s and he may be done with in the next couple of years. And before the Pro-Romo mafia comes out, I still maintain that he’s a ‘pretty good’ Quarterback, no more…no less. But, unless he was one of the all-time greats I’m worried that we’ll risk his effectiveness when he’s too old and it won’t be worth it.
Meanwhile, the Commanders are sorta looking like the Commanders again with the enormous trade-up. However, with the rookie salaries capped this strategy seems much smarter than in years past. And we could wind up with a ‘pretty good QB’ who may be the worst QB in our division.
Still, we need a lot of improvement in other areas.
We need a smarter team, period. As I asked after the last game of the year ‘how many times does Ware have to jump offsides before he learns?’ Essentially, throughout the ENTIRE team we are filled with some very dumb players. Forget about ‘leadership’ because you can’t lead a team to be smart.
Hopefully that was just the residue of the years under Wade, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
We also need to get a lot tougher on both sides of the ball (which is why I favor Finnegan over Carr) and we need a ton more speed on defense. Particularly if the Skins draft RGIII, meaning we will face 2 of the fastest QB’s in the league for a ¼ of the games each season.
On the positive front, I do like that the front office has valued coaching for once between Garrett, Ryan, DeCamillis, Callahan and Woicik. The question is if they are truly good coaches or if they are supposed to be great coaches but never quite meet the expectations we have for them. But at least the attempt to get good, young coaches or ‘gurus’ like Woicik is there.
Also, we are still talking about the Commanders and I do believe that success in the NFL starts with the ownership. There are other things like getting good breaks here and there, but I think if your owner is a joke, it’s going to be hard to sustain success. And while I think the salary cap benefits their move, it wasn’t too long ago that when the salary cap came along people thought that the Cowboys’ strategy of going after FA’s versus the draft was the right move. In other words, I think changes in the salary cap tend to benefit thinking draft first over FA first. I think this may be different, but history does show otherwise.
In the end, we really need to choose wisely in free agency and hopefully get some breaks health wise. If we don’t, I wonder how long Garrett will last here and right or wrong…I wonder about the confidence the players will have in Romo himself. And if it don’t work out in 2012, I could easily see another 5 years of legitimate mediocrity with who knows coaching this team.
YR
Last year I predicted that the Eagles would NOT make the playoffs. My reasoning was somewhat simple. The NFL is a SYSTEM of parity.
FACT:
Since 1999, only 48% of the teams that have won their division have made the playoffs the following year.
FACT:
In the last four seasons, only 38% of the teams that have won their division have made the playoffs the following year.
My reasoning against the Eagles for 2011 was that they won the NFC East in 2010 and their QB, was injury prone. And that is typically the difference between those teams that win the division and return to the playoffs the following year and those who win the division and miss the playoffs the following year…injured QB’s. Furthermore, those QB’s with a history of injuries tend to get re-injured again.
For some reason, people just didn’t want to believe and they scoffed at the Eagles missing the playoffs as silliness. Well, they missed it and Vick got injured and had he not gotten injured, they had a chance of making the playoffs.
But, here’s the problem for the Cowboys. The G-Men won the division last year. Eli is their QB and Eli has no pattern of missing games due to an injury. The G-Men may not win the division this year, but from a historical perspective, they look like their odds of making the playoffs are extremely high. Particularly since, IIRC, the last SB champ to not make the playoffs the following season was the ’01 Patriots.
YIKES
And while I dismissed the Eagles last year, the fact is that Andy Reid has never missed the playoffs 2 seasons in a row.
DOUBLE YIKES
I don’t think Jerry is as over-reactionary as the press and fans like to claim. But, I don’t know if he’ll keep Garrett around if we miss the playoffs for the 3rd season in a row (even though 2010 wasn’t his fault).
I am also afraid that we will wind up thinking that Romo can play well into his late 30’s and he may be done with in the next couple of years. And before the Pro-Romo mafia comes out, I still maintain that he’s a ‘pretty good’ Quarterback, no more…no less. But, unless he was one of the all-time greats I’m worried that we’ll risk his effectiveness when he’s too old and it won’t be worth it.
Meanwhile, the Commanders are sorta looking like the Commanders again with the enormous trade-up. However, with the rookie salaries capped this strategy seems much smarter than in years past. And we could wind up with a ‘pretty good QB’ who may be the worst QB in our division.
Still, we need a lot of improvement in other areas.
We need a smarter team, period. As I asked after the last game of the year ‘how many times does Ware have to jump offsides before he learns?’ Essentially, throughout the ENTIRE team we are filled with some very dumb players. Forget about ‘leadership’ because you can’t lead a team to be smart.
Hopefully that was just the residue of the years under Wade, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
We also need to get a lot tougher on both sides of the ball (which is why I favor Finnegan over Carr) and we need a ton more speed on defense. Particularly if the Skins draft RGIII, meaning we will face 2 of the fastest QB’s in the league for a ¼ of the games each season.
On the positive front, I do like that the front office has valued coaching for once between Garrett, Ryan, DeCamillis, Callahan and Woicik. The question is if they are truly good coaches or if they are supposed to be great coaches but never quite meet the expectations we have for them. But at least the attempt to get good, young coaches or ‘gurus’ like Woicik is there.
Also, we are still talking about the Commanders and I do believe that success in the NFL starts with the ownership. There are other things like getting good breaks here and there, but I think if your owner is a joke, it’s going to be hard to sustain success. And while I think the salary cap benefits their move, it wasn’t too long ago that when the salary cap came along people thought that the Cowboys’ strategy of going after FA’s versus the draft was the right move. In other words, I think changes in the salary cap tend to benefit thinking draft first over FA first. I think this may be different, but history does show otherwise.
In the end, we really need to choose wisely in free agency and hopefully get some breaks health wise. If we don’t, I wonder how long Garrett will last here and right or wrong…I wonder about the confidence the players will have in Romo himself. And if it don’t work out in 2012, I could easily see another 5 years of legitimate mediocrity with who knows coaching this team.
YR
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