Yakuza Rich
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 18,043
- Reaction score
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- Obviously, I’m glad to see the season finally starting. It was a bit more of a difficult offseason this year due to the lockout. I became less interested in the offseason because we couldn’t see the players on the team progress and it was too difficult to debate aspects of the team while the lockout loomed over our heads. But, it’s back now and I’m glad to see it back. In another folder somebody asked how they should explain 9/11 to their children and I would just celebrate the lives and the bravery of the heroes that shined thru that day. There are too many heroes to count, which speaks volumes of how great this country is. I watched the ESPN piece on Welles Crowther, which can be found here.
http://search.espn.go.com/welles-crowther/videos/6
I would recommend watching that as well.
- As I was explaining to Emperor on the podcast (http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=217587) the NFL is more or less a *system* of parity than anything else.
Meaning, when a team does well one year, they are more likely to get worse the next year and if a team does poorly one year, they are more likely to improve the next year. That doesn’t guarantee making the playoffs or missing the playoffs, but the odds of getting better or getting worse increase depending upon what the team did in the previous year.
- So, we have 12 playoff teams in the NFL each season (6 AFC, 6 NFC). Since 1999, only 48% of the division winners have *returned* to the playoffs the following season. Think about it, it’s saying that if you win the division, you are LESS LIKELY to MAKE the playoffs the following season than you are to return to the playoffs. The common trait of this? Starting QB gets injured. And typically, the starting QB that gets injured is one that has a previous injury history.
- We are also likely to see 4 of the playoff teams being teams who had losing records in 2010. The NFL averages about 4 playoff teams each season that had losing records in the previous year. The most common trait of those teams? A Quarterback who is a veteran who is at least ‘decent.’
- That leaves us with 4 more playoff teams to account for. On average, 3 of the 4 teams will be wildcard teams from the previous season. And on average, the last playoff team will be a team that went .500+, but didn’t make the playoffs.
- Unfortunately for Dallas, Peyton Manning’s injury doesn’t help our cause. That is probably going to take the Colts, a divisional winner last year, out of the playoffs. I also don’t like Cassel being injured. I also think Cutler gets injured (Martz’s QB have a high injury rate) and since Hasselbeck is no longer in Seattle, I don’t like their chances either.
- Thus, my playoffs teams for 2011 are as follows:
New England
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Houston
San Diego
Denver
Philadelphia
Dallas
Green Bay
Atlanta
New Orleans
St. Louis
Thus…I have these division winners returning (NE, PIT, PHI and ATL), these teams with losing records in 2010 (DAL, DEN, STL and HOU), these wildcard teams returning (GB, NO and BAL) and this last team who was .500+, but didn’t make the playoffs in 2010 (SD).
- Yes, I do believe Dallas makes the playoffs because they are the prototypical team that has a losing record that makes the playoffs the following season. The question is ‘how?’ I think that this team will have a very explosive offense and a defense that will not be all that great in 2011, but the offense covers that up. In fact, they remind me a lot of the 2004 Chargers who went from 4-12 to 12-4 and had an offense that revolved around a lot of 2 TE formations and could run the ball really well with Tomlinson.
- It will be interesting for me to see who Revis matches up against because that will tell me that is the WR that the Jets fear more. Personally, I have never been that impressed with Cromartie, but he does make a lot of interceptions. He’ll likely be getting help over the top. My gut tells me that Dez matches up better with Revis than Miles does, mainly because of Dez’s unbelievable strength and ability to get the jump ball. But at this point, Austin is a more refined receiver. If anything, it is an interesting matchup.
- I’m still excited about the O-Line. I think they are much more versatile this year and I think I like the prospects of them come December where the old O-Line guys started to struggle a bit. I think they are a bunch of hard working fighters, even the rookie Tyron Smith (who I believe will play Sunday).
- I’m actually glad we kept 2 kickers. I still think Buehler will be a really good kicker one day. I also think if he’s an automatic on kickoffs (or close to automatic), that’s a huge advantage if a team can’t get past the 20 yard line. Especially with all of the touchbacks which will help prevent injuries.
- I think the surprise player this year will be Barry Church. I think he’s not too flashy, but he’s a ‘football player’ in every sense of the word, which is a good thing at the safety position.
- I think the key players for the Jets game will be Felix and Scandrick. I think the guy that worries me is Holmes. I don’t think Plaxico will be a huge factor. I think Keller is a guy Sanchez loves, but I think we can prevent him from going wild on us. But Holmes…a really good WR that scares me the most. Obviously, Scrandrick won’t have him the entire game, but I think that’s the main matchuup and we need a good game from him.
- The Jets have had a really good defense under Rex, but they don’t quite like defending the run. I think Felix can also provide some matchup issues on passes out of the backfield. I don’t think he has to be great, but he has to be somewhat effective to keep the chains moving early on and open things up downfield.
- I also think if Ware can be effective early on, that would be big as well. Mainly because the statistics I have put together are not all that impressed with D’Brickashaw Ferguson. To Ferguson’s credit, he was a good pass protector last year, but there are just games that Ware has where it doesn’t quite matter who you are, you’re going to get owned by him when he rushes the passer. If Ware shows the Jets early on that he’s going to be a handful, he will effectively ruin their night on the weakside and make them much more one dimensional. It’s a match (Ware vs. Ferguson) that I think favors us 8 out of 10 times.
- I know AdamJT13 showed some stats of Ware’s sacks from last season and how just about all of them came in one-on-one situations or double team situations and almost all of them came against offensive tackles. Conversely, guys like Clay Matthews, James Harrison, etc, got sacks that came against RB’s and tight ends or on plays where they went unblocked.
I think that is extremely telling between Wade’s defense and the other defenses. That being said, I have little issue if Ware continues to have to get his sacks that way. However, it should mean that things get opened up for guys like Ratliff, Butler, Spencer and the ILB’s.
- My prediction, Dallas loses a tough one here. Although if Garrett wants to make a tribute to Landry, he can start by winning the first game of the season as Landry was pretty darn good at doing that : ) I think we then go onto win our next 3 games. At least until I change my mind.
YR
http://search.espn.go.com/welles-crowther/videos/6
I would recommend watching that as well.
- As I was explaining to Emperor on the podcast (http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=217587) the NFL is more or less a *system* of parity than anything else.
Meaning, when a team does well one year, they are more likely to get worse the next year and if a team does poorly one year, they are more likely to improve the next year. That doesn’t guarantee making the playoffs or missing the playoffs, but the odds of getting better or getting worse increase depending upon what the team did in the previous year.
- So, we have 12 playoff teams in the NFL each season (6 AFC, 6 NFC). Since 1999, only 48% of the division winners have *returned* to the playoffs the following season. Think about it, it’s saying that if you win the division, you are LESS LIKELY to MAKE the playoffs the following season than you are to return to the playoffs. The common trait of this? Starting QB gets injured. And typically, the starting QB that gets injured is one that has a previous injury history.
- We are also likely to see 4 of the playoff teams being teams who had losing records in 2010. The NFL averages about 4 playoff teams each season that had losing records in the previous year. The most common trait of those teams? A Quarterback who is a veteran who is at least ‘decent.’
- That leaves us with 4 more playoff teams to account for. On average, 3 of the 4 teams will be wildcard teams from the previous season. And on average, the last playoff team will be a team that went .500+, but didn’t make the playoffs.
- Unfortunately for Dallas, Peyton Manning’s injury doesn’t help our cause. That is probably going to take the Colts, a divisional winner last year, out of the playoffs. I also don’t like Cassel being injured. I also think Cutler gets injured (Martz’s QB have a high injury rate) and since Hasselbeck is no longer in Seattle, I don’t like their chances either.
- Thus, my playoffs teams for 2011 are as follows:
New England
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Houston
San Diego
Denver
Philadelphia
Dallas
Green Bay
Atlanta
New Orleans
St. Louis
Thus…I have these division winners returning (NE, PIT, PHI and ATL), these teams with losing records in 2010 (DAL, DEN, STL and HOU), these wildcard teams returning (GB, NO and BAL) and this last team who was .500+, but didn’t make the playoffs in 2010 (SD).
- Yes, I do believe Dallas makes the playoffs because they are the prototypical team that has a losing record that makes the playoffs the following season. The question is ‘how?’ I think that this team will have a very explosive offense and a defense that will not be all that great in 2011, but the offense covers that up. In fact, they remind me a lot of the 2004 Chargers who went from 4-12 to 12-4 and had an offense that revolved around a lot of 2 TE formations and could run the ball really well with Tomlinson.
- It will be interesting for me to see who Revis matches up against because that will tell me that is the WR that the Jets fear more. Personally, I have never been that impressed with Cromartie, but he does make a lot of interceptions. He’ll likely be getting help over the top. My gut tells me that Dez matches up better with Revis than Miles does, mainly because of Dez’s unbelievable strength and ability to get the jump ball. But at this point, Austin is a more refined receiver. If anything, it is an interesting matchup.
- I’m still excited about the O-Line. I think they are much more versatile this year and I think I like the prospects of them come December where the old O-Line guys started to struggle a bit. I think they are a bunch of hard working fighters, even the rookie Tyron Smith (who I believe will play Sunday).
- I’m actually glad we kept 2 kickers. I still think Buehler will be a really good kicker one day. I also think if he’s an automatic on kickoffs (or close to automatic), that’s a huge advantage if a team can’t get past the 20 yard line. Especially with all of the touchbacks which will help prevent injuries.
- I think the surprise player this year will be Barry Church. I think he’s not too flashy, but he’s a ‘football player’ in every sense of the word, which is a good thing at the safety position.
- I think the key players for the Jets game will be Felix and Scandrick. I think the guy that worries me is Holmes. I don’t think Plaxico will be a huge factor. I think Keller is a guy Sanchez loves, but I think we can prevent him from going wild on us. But Holmes…a really good WR that scares me the most. Obviously, Scrandrick won’t have him the entire game, but I think that’s the main matchuup and we need a good game from him.
- The Jets have had a really good defense under Rex, but they don’t quite like defending the run. I think Felix can also provide some matchup issues on passes out of the backfield. I don’t think he has to be great, but he has to be somewhat effective to keep the chains moving early on and open things up downfield.
- I also think if Ware can be effective early on, that would be big as well. Mainly because the statistics I have put together are not all that impressed with D’Brickashaw Ferguson. To Ferguson’s credit, he was a good pass protector last year, but there are just games that Ware has where it doesn’t quite matter who you are, you’re going to get owned by him when he rushes the passer. If Ware shows the Jets early on that he’s going to be a handful, he will effectively ruin their night on the weakside and make them much more one dimensional. It’s a match (Ware vs. Ferguson) that I think favors us 8 out of 10 times.
- I know AdamJT13 showed some stats of Ware’s sacks from last season and how just about all of them came in one-on-one situations or double team situations and almost all of them came against offensive tackles. Conversely, guys like Clay Matthews, James Harrison, etc, got sacks that came against RB’s and tight ends or on plays where they went unblocked.
I think that is extremely telling between Wade’s defense and the other defenses. That being said, I have little issue if Ware continues to have to get his sacks that way. However, it should mean that things get opened up for guys like Ratliff, Butler, Spencer and the ILB’s.
- My prediction, Dallas loses a tough one here. Although if Garrett wants to make a tribute to Landry, he can start by winning the first game of the season as Landry was pretty darn good at doing that : ) I think we then go onto win our next 3 games. At least until I change my mind.
YR
