Yakuza Rich
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- The Cowboys offense needs to either stop using the shotgun so much on 1st and 2nd downs, run more from the shotgun or both. Like I said here a few times, against the Commanders the Cowboys used the shotgun 37% of the 1st or 2nd downs they had. They only ran the ball twice on 2nd down, so the Commanders knew that shotgun = pass and their pass rushers could go full bore at Romo with no threat of a run. If anything, Garrett needs to understand how to keep defenses honest to some degree much more often throughout the game.
- There’s been talk of Garrett ‘missing Sparano’ along with the lack of points the team scored (7) vs. the yards gained (377). So I did some research on a statistic we’ll call ‘points per yards gained’ (points scored / yards gained). First, this has a pretty strong correlation to winning and losing in the NFL (correlation coefficient of +0.75 over the past 4 seasons). In ’07 (with Sparano and Garrett), the Cowboys finished 4th in PPYG. In 2008 they finished 21st. In 2009, 25th. Since the correlation is statistically very strong, what that means is that had the offense been stronger in this statistic in ’08 or ’09, they would’ve likely won more games those seasons and it could plague us again this season. Now, part of this statistic is influenced by the FG kicking, but remember that Folk was kicking well in ’08 and the team still finished 21st that year.
- We need to get some picks in this game. I wasn’t too worried about the lack of interceptions against the Skins because there wasn’t a lot of opportunity for it and McNabb has a low rate of INT’s per pass attempt in his career. McNabb averages 1 pick per 47.78 pass attempts in his career. However, Cutler isn’t nearly as good with a career average of 1 pick per 28.28 pass attempts. INT’s, particularly from the safeties, have been a problem the past 2 seasons and they are in a position where I’ll believe they can do it when I see it. But this game should net some INT’s.
- Don’t expect fumbles from the Bears since they had some issues with fumbles last week and they will probably focus on protecting the football this week.
- I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Martz really run the ball this game as the ’07 Lions did under his command against the Cowboys that year which really shocked the defense.
- I completely disagree that the Brooking blitzes up the middle were not effective. They penetrate the A gap which throws inside runs out of what and flushed McNabb out of the pocket. I wouldn’t call for them if they need a big play, but they were effective nonetheless. The issue I have with them is that Brooking can take a beating with those blitzes and he’s the 4th oldest Linebacker in the league and our ILB depth isn’t very good right now.
- I re-watched the game a bit and on that Marion Barber pass I think Witten did a poor job of slipping out and going downfield. I think people are way too down on that play (and I’ve been as critical of Garrett as anybody). This team needs to use some more trick plays from time to time when the offense is sputtering and it resulted in an incomplete pass that had no chance of being intercepted. I don’t see a difference in doing that versus Romo dropping back and throwing one away.
- I think if Beuhler miss chip shots in this game, they must start looking for a place kicker. And I think they will because the money isn’t guaranteed after week 2 and they’ll be getting healthier by then.
- If there’s a silver lining about the Garrett problems it’s that I have a gut feeling that Jerry isn’t very happy with Garrett right now. Wade wouldn’t say ‘I need to interject more’ on the offense unless Jerry was okay with it and hearing Jerry talk he still talks about how great Wade is, but you don’t hear much of that in regards to Garrett. Plus, Jerry has said he wants Felix starting and Barber as the ‘closer’, but Garrett wants the opposite and I think he’s a bit unhappy with Felix still not getting enough touches. Of course, people will say ‘who would you replace Garrett with?’ My answer would be Rob Chudzinski.
Chudzinski was the Browns O-Coordinator for 2 years (07-08). In his first year he took the awful Browns offense and made it one of the best in the league with Derrick freaking Anderson, Jamal Lewis, Braylon Edwards and a rookie at left tackle. In his second year they struggled, but still better than what they were before he got there. He was a sharp, thinking outside the box O-Coordinator who wasn’t afraid to run the ball and saw Lewis have his 2nd best year of his career when everybody thought he was done with at the age of 28 years old. He’s now the TE coach for the Chargers, which means he’s worked under Norv Turner and his offensive philosophy.
- I think the Cowboys win here, but it will be closer than people think. I think Cutler will have a good game, just a hunch, and that will keep the Bears in the game. I think Garrett will certainly run the ball, but go in the opposite direction this game and overdo it and just aggravate us some more.
YR
- There’s been talk of Garrett ‘missing Sparano’ along with the lack of points the team scored (7) vs. the yards gained (377). So I did some research on a statistic we’ll call ‘points per yards gained’ (points scored / yards gained). First, this has a pretty strong correlation to winning and losing in the NFL (correlation coefficient of +0.75 over the past 4 seasons). In ’07 (with Sparano and Garrett), the Cowboys finished 4th in PPYG. In 2008 they finished 21st. In 2009, 25th. Since the correlation is statistically very strong, what that means is that had the offense been stronger in this statistic in ’08 or ’09, they would’ve likely won more games those seasons and it could plague us again this season. Now, part of this statistic is influenced by the FG kicking, but remember that Folk was kicking well in ’08 and the team still finished 21st that year.
- We need to get some picks in this game. I wasn’t too worried about the lack of interceptions against the Skins because there wasn’t a lot of opportunity for it and McNabb has a low rate of INT’s per pass attempt in his career. McNabb averages 1 pick per 47.78 pass attempts in his career. However, Cutler isn’t nearly as good with a career average of 1 pick per 28.28 pass attempts. INT’s, particularly from the safeties, have been a problem the past 2 seasons and they are in a position where I’ll believe they can do it when I see it. But this game should net some INT’s.
- Don’t expect fumbles from the Bears since they had some issues with fumbles last week and they will probably focus on protecting the football this week.
- I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Martz really run the ball this game as the ’07 Lions did under his command against the Cowboys that year which really shocked the defense.
- I completely disagree that the Brooking blitzes up the middle were not effective. They penetrate the A gap which throws inside runs out of what and flushed McNabb out of the pocket. I wouldn’t call for them if they need a big play, but they were effective nonetheless. The issue I have with them is that Brooking can take a beating with those blitzes and he’s the 4th oldest Linebacker in the league and our ILB depth isn’t very good right now.
- I re-watched the game a bit and on that Marion Barber pass I think Witten did a poor job of slipping out and going downfield. I think people are way too down on that play (and I’ve been as critical of Garrett as anybody). This team needs to use some more trick plays from time to time when the offense is sputtering and it resulted in an incomplete pass that had no chance of being intercepted. I don’t see a difference in doing that versus Romo dropping back and throwing one away.
- I think if Beuhler miss chip shots in this game, they must start looking for a place kicker. And I think they will because the money isn’t guaranteed after week 2 and they’ll be getting healthier by then.
- If there’s a silver lining about the Garrett problems it’s that I have a gut feeling that Jerry isn’t very happy with Garrett right now. Wade wouldn’t say ‘I need to interject more’ on the offense unless Jerry was okay with it and hearing Jerry talk he still talks about how great Wade is, but you don’t hear much of that in regards to Garrett. Plus, Jerry has said he wants Felix starting and Barber as the ‘closer’, but Garrett wants the opposite and I think he’s a bit unhappy with Felix still not getting enough touches. Of course, people will say ‘who would you replace Garrett with?’ My answer would be Rob Chudzinski.
Chudzinski was the Browns O-Coordinator for 2 years (07-08). In his first year he took the awful Browns offense and made it one of the best in the league with Derrick freaking Anderson, Jamal Lewis, Braylon Edwards and a rookie at left tackle. In his second year they struggled, but still better than what they were before he got there. He was a sharp, thinking outside the box O-Coordinator who wasn’t afraid to run the ball and saw Lewis have his 2nd best year of his career when everybody thought he was done with at the age of 28 years old. He’s now the TE coach for the Chargers, which means he’s worked under Norv Turner and his offensive philosophy.
- I think the Cowboys win here, but it will be closer than people think. I think Cutler will have a good game, just a hunch, and that will keep the Bears in the game. I think Garrett will certainly run the ball, but go in the opposite direction this game and overdo it and just aggravate us some more.
YR
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