YR's My Meaningless Thoughts, Week 5...

[Yakuza Rich]

- I’m sort of glad the Cowboys had the week off, but I’m also glad to be back to football again. The team is 1-2, nobody else has more than 2 wins right now and I can’t say that any of the NFC East teams look particularly strong. But I’m glad to be back into football instead of Felix Jones, whipping boy or not? debates and videoboard elevation debates, etc.

- However, the videoboard has only been hit in 1 out of 132 punting attempts made by NFL punters in games and exhibitions. That doesn’t include college punters who have missed it as well. That’s a 0.8% rate of being hit (and doesn’t include the college punters). So good job of predicting that one, Mr. Fisher.

- I remember the goofiest statement was BSPN’s John Clayton claiming that an opposing QB could drop back and heave one at the videoboard and hit it to give his team an extra play either before the half or before the game ends. And that would somehow give that team an advantage. Think about that for a few seconds and realize just how stupid that theory is and have a good laugh.

- I’m actually a bit worried about VY. The defense tends to blitz QB’s and then not account for them scrambling. Usually they adapt, but it tends to throw them off a bit. I kind of get the feeling they’ll be on the lookout for that, but with this team you never know.

- Actually I’m probably more worried about the defense’s focus. In the Wade era alone the defense has given up a 78 QB rating on the road, which is really good. But at home they’ve given up an 84 QB rating. I think it’s a loss of focus and something to look out for. Last season they seemed to correct that as the year went along, but it’s already shown up this season.

- I think Jerry isn’t happy with Felix not getting enough touches. I think Wade probably sides with Jerry, but since it’s Garrett’s offense, he gets the call…for now. I had a feeling when the year began that Jerry wanted Felix and Garrett wanted Barber and Jerry would let it slide until he felt there wasn’t enough production and then he would step in.

- Hopefully Romo is calling the plays again and hopefully he calls them like he did against HOU. As I’ve show with stats, last season 71.2% of our penalties came on passing plays. This year it’s at 92%. The O-Line I don’t think is *quite* the main problem, but more or less Garrett’s playcalling doesn’t put them in a good position to play well.

- The playcalling formula is simple. 50-50 balance on first down. Keep Romo’s pass attempts to less than 36. Use shotgun no more than 25% of the time on 1st and 2nd downs. And run out of the shotgun about 3-5 times. Even if the run isn’t quite effective, that’s not the point…staying in the game and keeping the Titans defense honest so you can set up bigger plays in the passing game is, while protecting the football.

- Ought to be interesting to see Dez and Miles go against the physical Titans secondary. People ask if the Titans are dirty. Chuck freaking Cecil is their D-Coordinator. Of course they are dirty. What’s next, asking if Bernie Madoff trained financial managers are crooks?

- The defense forced 3 turnovers against HOU. That’s a good start. I’m afraid that the bye week will let them revert to their old ways. Hopefully I’m wrong on that one.

- I think a big key will be the punt/kickoff coverages and protecting the football on offense. The Titans rank 2nd in yards per point scored. They average 1 point per 11.7 yards gained. The Patriots rank #1 in this category, but you have to remember that they had those points off of special teams and in particular the Dolphins debacle. The Titans don’t have quite the special teams Dallas does, but they more or less make the most out of the yards they do gain. The issue for them is that they haven’t gained a lot of yards so far this year. So if Dallas can win the field position battle, they can win this game easily.

- I thought it was interesting reading Bob Sturm’s blog and hearing Pat Kirwan talk about how you can tell what a team is trying to do by what plays they call on the first play of each drive. So if you run on the first play of every drive (like we did last week) that indicates a commitment to the run. I think this team needs to do that just so they can set the tone that they have come to fight today. Garrett says he likes Barber because he ‘sets the tone’, but then goes around plays a very soft, fancy short passing game. Just another case of Garrett’s logic baffling me.

- I think we’ll win this one because the team is just extremely tough coming off of bye weeks for whatever reason and they really need this victory. If the Cowboys follow my formula of offensive playcalling and the defense communicates well pre-snap, I’ll take the Cowboys against anybody. The question is if they are willing and able to stick with it week in and week out.






YR

 

[jobberone]

Good read. They need to avoid mistakes and turnovers. They do that they should win this game.

 

[CCBoy]

Thanks for the effort as always. I think that Dallas offense beats the Titan defense and controls most of the carpet and time.

 

[Idgit]

Good post, as always YR.

- Hopefully Romo is calling the plays again and hopefully he calls them like he did against HOU. As I’ve show with stats, last season 71.2% of our penalties came on passing plays. This year it’s at 92%. The O-Line I don’t think is *quite* the main problem, but more or less Garrett’s playcalling doesn’t put them in a good position to play well.

YR

Though we disagree on Jason Garrett, we can agree that it'd be good to see Romo calling plays again this week. That's a skill I'd like to see him develop, and it might well be the best use of our offensive resources. I'd especially like to see him throw in a little no-huddle on a series or two, because I think that gives us a further advantage. It looked like we had a bit of no-huddle prepared at the end of the first half against the Texans. Maybe we'll see it if we need an offensive jumpstart this weekend.

Re: the passing penalty statistics, those are very interesting. I'd expect penalties to be skewed to passing down for no other reason than we pass the ball more than we run. But that's some skew. Any idea how that compares to other teams or the league in general? My guess is that it's always more likely you'll get a penalty when you pass, but the fact that your yards/play-adjusted for incompletions--in the passing game is typically higher than your rushing average, teams are willing to live with the increased penalty yardage. I'm far too lazy to do that math, though.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Any idea how that compares to other teams or the league in general? My guess is that it's always more likely you'll get a penalty when you pass, but the fact that your yards/play-adjusted for incompletions--in the passing game is typically higher than your rushing average, teams are willing to live with the increased penalty yardage. I'm far too lazy to do that math, though.

It takes me about 20 minutes to do a year's worth of data for a team. I'd be interested in seeing how the lesser penalized teams do.

There are other factors to consider like refereeing crews as they have a tendency to call certain penalties over other penalties. The 92% penalties on pass plays is pretty alarming though, yet Garrett keeps calling for the pass.

Hey, I would love to have confidence in Garrett as an O-Coordinator because then I could have some confidence in him as being the next HC. But, I don't other than he designs plays well. He'd have to give up playcalling and hand it to somebody more capable.

At this moment I think that when Wade is gone my top candidate for HC is Ron Rivera, who finally got his players and full control of the defense in San Diego and has a very tough and exciting defense despite no Jamal Williams, Shawne Merriman being a shell of his former self and making Kevin Burnett look like a Pro Bowler. Then I would hire his fellow TE coach Rob Chudzinski to be the O-Coordinator.







YR

 

[DallasEast]

In their first four games against the Raiders, Steelers, Broncos and Giants, Vince Young and Chris Johnson have combined for five fumbles and lost four of them. If this defense manufactures any turnovers Sunday, we may see them happen moreso in that fashion over interceptions, etc.

 

[jazzcat22]

Good post YR.
So we avoid penalties [hard to do with this team]. Stop Chris Johnson, make Vince throw, we intercept him a few times or more, or at least get some sacks. We are good.

 

[dbair1967]

If we dont have more than 1 turnover and hold Johnson in check (ie, no homerun plays, I dont care so much about yards as long as it doesnt come in big chunks or to the house TD's) I honestly dont see how Tennessee is going to stay close to us.

I think we win comfortably this week.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

-
-
- I’m actually a bit worried about VY. The defense tends to blitz QB’s and then not account for them scrambling. Usually they adapt, but it tends to throw them off a bit. I kind of get the feeling they’ll be on the lookout for that, but with this team you never know.

I doubt if we blitz as much this game, we might rush with 5 and have two spies (Saftey and LB) on VY and Johnson to ensure we contain them. the key is to eliminate the really long runs for CJ and VY getting first down and additional chances with his feet. Expect a very conservative defensive game plan. since they are one dimentional, we don't need to get fancy.

- Actually I’m probably more worried about the defense’s focus. In the Wade era alone the defense has given up a 78 QB rating on the road, which is really good. But at home they’ve given up an 84 QB rating. I think it’s a loss of focus and something to look out for. Last season they seemed to correct that as the year went along, but it’s already shown up this season.

- I think Jerry isn’t happy with Felix not getting enough touches. I think Wade probably sides with Jerry, but since it’s Garrett’s offense, he gets the call…for now. I had a feeling when the year began that Jerry wanted Felix and Garrett wanted Barber and Jerry would let it slide until he felt there wasn’t enough production and then he would step in.

I just think garrett needs not to outsmart himself. sometimes he outthinks himself by trying to cross the opposing defense and go pass happy or run happy. sometimes you just line up and play. trust your players. expect them to produce. don't outthink it.

- Hopefully Romo is calling the plays again and hopefully he calls them like he did against HOU. As I’ve show with stats, last season 71.2% of our penalties came on passing plays. This year it’s at 92%. The O-Line I don’t think is *quite* the main problem, but more or less Garrett’s playcalling doesn’t put them in a good position to play well.

I just hope romo is sharp like the texans game as opposed to the bears game.

- The playcalling formula is simple. 50-50 balance on first down. Keep Romo’s pass attempts to less than 36. Use shotgun no more than 25% of the time on 1st and 2nd downs. And run out of the shotgun about 3-5 times. Even if the run isn’t quite effective, that’s not the point…staying in the game and keeping the Titans defense honest so you can set up bigger plays in the passing game is, while protecting the football.

actually looking back at the texans game, we ran the ball 9 times out of 10 at the end of the game to ice it. before that it was 62% pass and 38% run. its about executions. its keeping the penalties in check so that you are not in a 1st or 2nd and 20 situation. its much easier to make a 3rd 5 instead of a 3rd and 15.

- Ought to be interesting to see Dez and Miles go against the physical Titans secondary. People ask if the Titans are dirty. Chuck freaking Cecil is their D-Coordinator. Of course they are dirty. What’s next, asking if Bernie Madoff trained financial managers are crooks?

look for witten and bennett to have a breakout game. mostly because of what you said, that romo will go to witten and bennet and felix as his 2nd, 3rd and 4th options.

- The defense forced 3 turnovers against HOU. That’s a good start. I’m afraid that the bye week will let them revert to their old ways. Hopefully I’m wrong on that one.


- I think we’ll win this one because the team is just extremely tough coming off of bye weeks for whatever reason and they really need this victory. If the Cowboys follow my formula of offensive playcalling and the defense communicates well pre-snap, I’ll take the Cowboys against anybody. The question is if they are willing and able to stick with it week in and week out.


YR

this is going to be a tough physical game and its going to come down to penalties and field position. and containing CJ and Vince from running for big plays. its about sticking with your assignments, playing your lanes and gaps and being disciplined. if the defense does that, we will be fine.

 

[jterrell]

Good stuff there.
My own 2 cents.

Ultimately if you are passing to set up more passing in this league you'll eventually be toast. You may win a lot of games by 30 but eventually you'll run into a defense that can pressure you and really hurt you bad. I'd hate to switch offenses with the titans but that is a team that can win ugly. We really struggle unless we truly punish people with big passing plays.

The RB debate to me is moot. None of these guys are that far ahead of the others regardless of what anyone says. I've had enough eyeballs on them thus far to truly believe that is irrefutable. Each has strengths and all three are better than average NFL players. None of them are superstars without any flaws. What we need is to continue to use them ALL and force defenses to deal with tackling Barber, chasing Felix and reading Choice.

Our defense is a heck of a good unit. They aren't invincible but they can really play. Every team in the league has letdown games and when we see Ball in run defense or LBs man covering quick backs we'll have issues. But this defense will really make life tough on opposing offenses 9 times out of 10.

As we come out of this bye my expectations for this team remain high. I believe the early losses were a combination of focus on young kids developing and generally poor play by a team that wasn't ever concerned with winning early. Winning late feels a heck of a lot better so let's hope that is the pattern for 2010. The schedule certainly isn't an easy one and this team isn't above flubbing a game. All that said we are far and away the most talented team in the NFCE. It is time to prove that edge exists on the field and not just paper.

The Titans play a physical and draining style. I am glad we had two weeks to prepare and glad we see this team before similar teams with more talent.. like Baltimore or the Jets.

 

[DallasEast]

Each has strengths and all three are better than average NFL players. None of them are superstars without any flaws. What we need is to continue to use them ALL and force defenses to deal with tackling Barber, chasing Felix and reading Choice.

Well said.

 

[percyhoward]

- I remember the goofiest statement was BSPN’s John Clayton claiming that an opposing QB could drop back and heave one at the videoboard and hit it to give his team an extra play either before the half or before the game ends.

Quote from John Clayton, 2009

"What I'd like to see is a visiting quarterback hit the scoreboard with 30 seconds remaining and no timeouts and see if he can get a dead-ball ruling that is mandated for punts that hit the scoreboard. The quarterback can do this by rolling out of the pocket and firing the ball at the scoreboard. As long as he is outside the pocket and the ball is past the line of scrimmage, there can't be any intentional grounding calls.

In fact, would it not be out of line for a team with no timeouts to just throw to hit the scoreboard after each first down to reset the clock."

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Quote from John Clayton, 2009

"What I'd like to see is a visiting quarterback hit the scoreboard with 30 seconds remaining and no timeouts and see if he can get a dead-ball ruling that is mandated for punts that hit the scoreboard. The quarterback can do this by rolling out of the pocket and firing the ball at the scoreboard. As long as he is outside the pocket and the ball is past the line of scrimmage, there can't be any intentional grounding calls.

In fact, would it not be out of line for a team with no timeouts to just throw to hit the scoreboard after each first down to reset the clock."

I think the poor QB's arm would get tired from heaving the ball at the videoboard on every first down.





YR

 

[adbutcher]

Quote from John Clayton, 2009

"What I'd like to see is a visiting quarterback hit the scoreboard with 30 seconds remaining and no timeouts and see if he can get a dead-ball ruling that is mandated for punts that hit the scoreboard. The quarterback can do this by rolling out of the pocket and firing the ball at the scoreboard. As long as he is outside the pocket and the ball is past the line of scrimmage, there can't be any intentional grounding calls.

In fact, would it not be out of line for a team with no timeouts to just throw to hit the scoreboard after each first down to reset the clock."

:laugh2: