Jarv
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http://www.usatoday.com/sports/columnist/zenzone/picks.htm
Arizona (+7) at Atlanta
Kurt Warner. Matt Leinart. It really doesn't matter because the Falcons are not happy after that Monday night debacle in New Orleans. It's probably better that Leinart not get the start. Atlanta's defense is going to terrorize Arizona's offense.
Falcons 24, Cardinals 13
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San Diego (-2½) at Baltimore
It's the game of the week in the AFC. This is a great measuring stick for both teams, and maybe the first real challenge of Chargers QB Philip Rivers' career. After all, the Chargers played the Raiders and Titans in their first two games and didn't play last week. The Chargers have the No. 1 defense in the NFL, and the Ravens are No. 2. Rivers has never been in a game like this and never faced a defense with Ed Reed and Ray Lewis running roughshod. Don't expect many points from either team. Expect the Ravens to have at least one more point than the Chargers.
Ravens 16, Chargers 14
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Minnesota (+1) at Buffalo
Buffalo can't be trusted. Not yet. After almost beating New England, then beating Miami on the road but losing to the Jets at home in Week 3, the Bills just can't play consistently. They are headed in the right direction, but they're still behind the Vikings. Coming off a close home loss to Chicago, Minnesota is good enough to beat the Bills on the road.
Vikings 17, Bills 14
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New Orleans (+7½) at Carolina
I thought the emotion of returning to the Superdome would be too much for the Saints on Monday against the Falcons. I was wrong. But the emotional hangover will hit them against the Panthers. The weight of it all has to hit the Saints sooner or later. New Orleans' two-game road winning streak in Carolina comes to end, and the Panthers start to make people forget about their 0-2 start.
Panthers 24, Saints 20
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Miami (-4) at Houston
Houston needs help on defense. Miami needs help on offense. Which team gets it together for this game? While Houston is not very good, it looks like most people overestimated how good the Dolphins would be.
Texans 21, Dolphins 17
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San Francisco (+7) at Kansas City
Kansas City coach Herm Edwards is struggling to give the Chiefs an identity, and it didn't help when they lost QB Trent Green indefinitely with a concussion. Kansas City's defense should be able to limit an entertaining San Francisco offense, and the Chiefs' offense should be able to string together a few scoring drives against the porous 49ers defense. Plus, no matter who is coaching the Chiefs and no matter who the quarterback is, it's tough to win at Arrowhead.
Chiefs 24, 49ers 20
***
Indianapolis (-9) at New York Jets
As a defensive coach for New England, Eric Mangini was 7-2 against the Colts from 2000-2005. But Mangini's Jets don't have the same caliber of player as the Patriots did. The Jets' defense allows yards, and the Colts will be looking to get their offense going after a rough time moving the ball last week against the Jaguars.
Colts 27, Jets 20
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Dallas (-9½) at Tennessee
Sure has been a quiet week at Cowboys camp, hasn't it?
Cowboys 23, Titans 16
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Detroit (+ 5½) at St. Louis
Looking at Detroit's schedule, I'm having a hard time finding an opponent the Lions can beat. Maybe –maybe– the home games against San Francisco or Miami.
Rams 23, Lions 14
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New England (+6) at Cincinnati
It's a new-world AFC, and while the Patriots might be part of the AFC playoff picture, they are not, at least not right now, one of the best teams in the AFC. There are at least three teams better than the Patriots, and the Bengals are one of them.
Bengals 24, Patriots 16
***
Cleveland (-2½) at Oakland
In two games, Oakland hasn't scored a touchdown. The Browns showed they could go four quarters with the Ravens at home. They should be able to go four quarters with the Raiders on the road and win. They did it last year, winning 9-6 at Oakland.
Browns 20, Raiders 17
***
Jacksonville (-2½) at Washington
The Commanders got a win last week, albeit against the Houston Texans. But they still have plenty of work to do before they can be considered a playoff contender. Beating the Jaguars, even at home, won't be easy. Jacksonville has eight wins in its past eight road games and are coming off a loss to Indy.
Jaguars 20, Commanders 13
***
Seattle (+3½) at Chicago
It's the game of the week in the NFC, if not the NFL. I was leaning toward the Bears, even before news broke of a broken bone in Shaun Alexander's left foot. Along the lines of the Ravens-Chargers game, this should be another fantastic defensive struggle even with that potent Seahawks offense. If the Bears want to be taken seriously as an NFC title contender, they must win a game like this.
Bears 16, Seahawks 14
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Green Bay (+11) at Philadelphia
Brett Favre can throw for three touchdowns and no picks against the Detroit Lions. He can't do it against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Eagles 30, Packers 17
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Last week: 8-6 straight up; 7-6-1 ATS
Overall: 30-16; 25-20-1
***
E-mail Jeff Zillgitt at jzillgitt@usatoday.com.
Arizona (+7) at Atlanta
Kurt Warner. Matt Leinart. It really doesn't matter because the Falcons are not happy after that Monday night debacle in New Orleans. It's probably better that Leinart not get the start. Atlanta's defense is going to terrorize Arizona's offense.
Falcons 24, Cardinals 13
***
San Diego (-2½) at Baltimore
It's the game of the week in the AFC. This is a great measuring stick for both teams, and maybe the first real challenge of Chargers QB Philip Rivers' career. After all, the Chargers played the Raiders and Titans in their first two games and didn't play last week. The Chargers have the No. 1 defense in the NFL, and the Ravens are No. 2. Rivers has never been in a game like this and never faced a defense with Ed Reed and Ray Lewis running roughshod. Don't expect many points from either team. Expect the Ravens to have at least one more point than the Chargers.
Ravens 16, Chargers 14
***
Minnesota (+1) at Buffalo
Buffalo can't be trusted. Not yet. After almost beating New England, then beating Miami on the road but losing to the Jets at home in Week 3, the Bills just can't play consistently. They are headed in the right direction, but they're still behind the Vikings. Coming off a close home loss to Chicago, Minnesota is good enough to beat the Bills on the road.
Vikings 17, Bills 14
***
New Orleans (+7½) at Carolina
I thought the emotion of returning to the Superdome would be too much for the Saints on Monday against the Falcons. I was wrong. But the emotional hangover will hit them against the Panthers. The weight of it all has to hit the Saints sooner or later. New Orleans' two-game road winning streak in Carolina comes to end, and the Panthers start to make people forget about their 0-2 start.
Panthers 24, Saints 20
***
Miami (-4) at Houston
Houston needs help on defense. Miami needs help on offense. Which team gets it together for this game? While Houston is not very good, it looks like most people overestimated how good the Dolphins would be.
Texans 21, Dolphins 17
***
San Francisco (+7) at Kansas City
Kansas City coach Herm Edwards is struggling to give the Chiefs an identity, and it didn't help when they lost QB Trent Green indefinitely with a concussion. Kansas City's defense should be able to limit an entertaining San Francisco offense, and the Chiefs' offense should be able to string together a few scoring drives against the porous 49ers defense. Plus, no matter who is coaching the Chiefs and no matter who the quarterback is, it's tough to win at Arrowhead.
Chiefs 24, 49ers 20
***
Indianapolis (-9) at New York Jets
As a defensive coach for New England, Eric Mangini was 7-2 against the Colts from 2000-2005. But Mangini's Jets don't have the same caliber of player as the Patriots did. The Jets' defense allows yards, and the Colts will be looking to get their offense going after a rough time moving the ball last week against the Jaguars.
Colts 27, Jets 20
***
Dallas (-9½) at Tennessee
Sure has been a quiet week at Cowboys camp, hasn't it?
Cowboys 23, Titans 16
***
Detroit (+ 5½) at St. Louis
Looking at Detroit's schedule, I'm having a hard time finding an opponent the Lions can beat. Maybe –maybe– the home games against San Francisco or Miami.
Rams 23, Lions 14
***
New England (+6) at Cincinnati
It's a new-world AFC, and while the Patriots might be part of the AFC playoff picture, they are not, at least not right now, one of the best teams in the AFC. There are at least three teams better than the Patriots, and the Bengals are one of them.
Bengals 24, Patriots 16
***
Cleveland (-2½) at Oakland
In two games, Oakland hasn't scored a touchdown. The Browns showed they could go four quarters with the Ravens at home. They should be able to go four quarters with the Raiders on the road and win. They did it last year, winning 9-6 at Oakland.
Browns 20, Raiders 17
***
Jacksonville (-2½) at Washington
The Commanders got a win last week, albeit against the Houston Texans. But they still have plenty of work to do before they can be considered a playoff contender. Beating the Jaguars, even at home, won't be easy. Jacksonville has eight wins in its past eight road games and are coming off a loss to Indy.
Jaguars 20, Commanders 13
***
Seattle (+3½) at Chicago
It's the game of the week in the NFC, if not the NFL. I was leaning toward the Bears, even before news broke of a broken bone in Shaun Alexander's left foot. Along the lines of the Ravens-Chargers game, this should be another fantastic defensive struggle even with that potent Seahawks offense. If the Bears want to be taken seriously as an NFC title contender, they must win a game like this.
Bears 16, Seahawks 14
***
Green Bay (+11) at Philadelphia
Brett Favre can throw for three touchdowns and no picks against the Detroit Lions. He can't do it against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Eagles 30, Packers 17
***
Last week: 8-6 straight up; 7-6-1 ATS
Overall: 30-16; 25-20-1
***
E-mail Jeff Zillgitt at jzillgitt@usatoday.com.