NASA predicts that an asteroid buzzing by in 2032 might hit Earth

They increased the possibility of it hitting Earth. It now has a 2.3% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. This probability has increased from over 1% in January 2025. Astronomers plan to use the James Webb Space Telescope in March to get a better estimate of asteroid 2024 YR4's size and trajectory.

Sometimes it's easy to forget (as we're grabbing coffee, paying bills, and debating if pineapple belongs on pizza) that we’re just chilling on this rock, spinning at 1,000 mph, hurtling around the sun at 67,000 mph, all while dodging space debris, asteroids, and who knows what else flying through the galaxy.

The universe is basically a giant, chaotic pinball machine. The fact that we don’t get smacked by space rocks more often is kind of a miracle. It’s very humbling to think about.
 
SlammedZero said:
They increased the possibility of it hitting Earth. It now has a 2.3% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. This probability has increased from over 1% in January 2025. Astronomers plan to use the James Webb Space Telescope in March to get a better estimate of asteroid 2024 YR4's size and trajectory.

Sometimes it's easy to forget (as we're grabbing coffee, paying bills, and debating if pineapple belongs on pizza) that we’re just chilling on this rock, spinning at 1,000 mph, hurtling around the sun at 67,000 mph, all while dodging space debris, asteroids, and who knows what else flying through the galaxy.

The universe is basically a giant, chaotic pinball machine. The fact that we don’t get smacked by space rocks more often is kind of a miracle. It’s very humbling to think about.
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It really is, and 2.3% when it comes to asteroids isn't exactly a small deal. Looks like we need the crew of Armageddon to get ready in case.
 
Tabascocat said:
Luckily, it isn’t that big.
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90 meters is as big as they think it is at this time. Could be smaller. anyway 40-90 meters wide is the current estimate.
Would supposedly go up in an airburst equivalent to a 8 megaton nuke. of course, they do not know much about its composition. That would have a big effect on what it does.

so basically it could wipe out a city the size of NY.

they have absolutely no idea of where it would hit. Now if it came over open ocean, and remember this planet is two thirds ocean, basically only any ships that were unlucky enough to be close would suffer.
 
gtb1943 said:
90 meters is as big as they think it is at this time. Could be smaller. anyway 40-90 meters wide is the current estimate.
Would supposedly go up in an airburst equivalent to a 8 megaton nuke. of course, they do not know much about its composition. That would have a big effect on what it does.

so basically it could wipe out a city the size of NY.

they have absolutely no idea of where it would hit. Now if it came over open ocean, and remember this planet is two thirds ocean, basically only any ships that were unlucky enough to be close would suffer.
Click to expand...
Big ol' fish fry!
 
armageddon-harry-stamper.gif
 
gtb1943 said:
90 meters is as big as they think it is at this time. Could be smaller. anyway 40-90 meters wide is the current estimate.
Would supposedly go up in an airburst equivalent to a 8 megaton nuke. of course, they do not know much about its composition. That would have a big effect on what it does.

so basically it could wipe out a city the size of NY.

they have absolutely no idea of where it would hit. Now if it came over open ocean, and remember this planet is two thirds ocean, basically only any ships that were unlucky enough to be close would suffer.
Click to expand...


Thanks for this. Sounds like it’ll be similar in damage to the Tunguska event if it does hit earth and hits land.

So all in all, the risks of it impacting any of us is very very low.
 
Lets say it is 50 meters wide and it does hit. What do you think the size of it will be on impact? A semi? A pickup truck? A couch?

I guess it would depend on what it is made of. If it is solid iron, I imagine barely any burns up…..I don’t know.
 
Tabascocat said:
Lets say it is 50 meters wide and it does hit. What do you think the size of it will be on impact? A semi? A pickup truck? A couch?

I guess it would depend on what it is made of. If it is solid iron, I imagine barely any burns up…..I don’t know.
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yeah, they seem to have little idea of what it is actually made of
their GUESS is that it is rocky. Big surprise. Though wiki says they have an idea that it will hit south of the Equator.
not found anything else that makes that claim
 
gtb1943 said:
yeah, they seem to have little idea of what it is actually made of
their GUESS is that it is rocky. Big surprise. Though wiki says they have an idea that it will hit south of the Equator.
not found anything else that makes that claim
Click to expand...
Well, it's either rocky or icy, and if there's no detectable tail, it's probably rocky...I guess.
 
"A space rock that size would most likely cause local damage but would not pose a threat to the entire planet or humanity".

We don't have its mass but something that size, and I assume it will be smaller as it passes through the atmosphere by the time it impacts the earth's surface depending on its composition - if it impacts the earth's surface - traveling at over 55,000 ft per second would be a very bad day for the people in the vicinity of the impact. Most likely it hits in an unpopulated area or an ocean somewhere. But imagine if it were to impact in a major city like Tokyo or NY, or Paris.

I don't like that the odds of impact moved against us. That makes me think the odds of an impact with continue to grow. I know this is not necessarily true, but that's how I perceive the information. We have plenty of time to prepare or even devise a plan to destroy the object in space long before it comes near earth. But I don't think they will have a precise path of the asteroid until it gets a lot closer.
 
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