NASA predicts that an asteroid buzzing by in 2032 might hit Earth

[Runwildboys]

"A space rock that size would most likely cause local damage but would not pose a threat to the entire planet or humanity".

We don't have its mass but something that size, and I assume it will be smaller as it passes through the atmosphere by the time it impacts the earth's surface depending on its composition - if it impacts the earth's surface - traveling at over 55,000 ft per second would be a very bad day for the people in the vicinity of the impact. Most likely it hits in an unpopulated area or an ocean somewhere. But imagine if it were to impact in a major city like Tokyo or NY, or Paris.

I don't like that the odds of impact moved against us. That makes me think the odds of an impact with continue to grow. I know this is not necessarily true, but that's how I perceive the information. We have plenty of time to prepare or even devise a plan to destroy the object in space long before it comes near earth. But I don't think they will have a precise path of the asteroid until it gets a lot closer.

Destroying it not an option. Meeting it far away and giving it a slight nudge one way or the other is feasible though. IIRC, we've already done that with one, as a test model.

 

[gtb1943]

Destroying it not an option. Meeting it far away and giving it a slight nudge one way or the other is feasible though. IIRC, we've already done that with one, as a test model.

something this small we could hit it dead on if possible and turn it into fragments. Probably cost a few billion to do it.

 

[Runwildboys]

something this small we could hit it dead on if possible and turn it into fragments. Probably cost a few billion to do it.

I'm not sure, maybe. If it's made of iron, I'm not sure how well that would work, or if it would just break pieces off, leaving a large chunk coming, at a more direct impact.

 

[nobody]

Lets say it is 50 meters wide and it does hit. What do you think the size of it will be on impact? A semi? A pickup truck? A couch?

I guess it would depend on what it is made of. If it is solid iron, I imagine barely any burns up…..I don’t know.

Meteor Crater in Arizona was an impact of one about 50 meters across, so about that size crater. 1.2 kilometers in diameter. It would be enough to eradicate a city with the initial impact and shockwave.

 

[Creeper]

I'm not sure, maybe. If it's made of iron, I'm not sure how well that would work, or if it would just break pieces off, leaving a large chunk coming, at a more direct impact.

Interestingly, I found an article that states a 2021 study of this very problem concluded that "a nuke detonated next to an asteroid 100 meters (328 feet) wide, at least two months before impact, could blast 99.9% of the asteroid’s mass out of Earth’s way." While there would be no "fireball" in space like we would see on earth, the heat generated from the nuclear reaction would still vaporize a large part of a small asteroid. At the very least the nuke would create enough thrust to move the rock off it's path.

Obviously, the sooner we take out the asteroid, or the farther away from earth, the safer it would be for our planet. The question is, how far away can we intercept a space rock traveling at 38,000 MPH?

 

[Runwildboys]

Interestingly, I found an article that states a 2021 study of this very problem concluded that "a nuke detonated next to an asteroid 100 meters (328 feet) wide, at least two months before impact, could blast 99.9% of the asteroid’s mass out of Earth’s way." While there would be no "fireball" in space like we would see on earth, the heat generated from the nuclear reaction would still vaporize a large part of a small asteroid. At the very least the nuke would create enough thrust to move the rock off it's path.

Obviously, the sooner we take out the asteroid, or the farther away from earth, the safer it would be for our planet. The question is, how far away can we intercept a space rock traveling at 38,000 MPH?

Right, and do we have spacefaring rockets, with nuclear payloads available, or are we going to wait until we absolutely need them?

 

[Tabascocat]

Right, and do we have spacefaring rockets, with nuclear payloads available, or are we going to wait until we absolutely need them?

Nope, nothing that we know of. I am sure it is being discussed somewhere though.

 

[Creeper]

Nope, nothing that we know of. I am sure it is being discussed somewhere though.

Didn't we successfully intercept an asteroid with some kind of rocket propelled craft already? How hard would it be to adapt that craft to carry a nuke? This is a small asteroid so I assume we only need something in the area of about 1 megaton. Of course if we want to be absolutely certain of destroying the asteroid we could load up a 100 megaton bomb, but I suspect that would be unnecessary, although much cooler.

 

[Tabascocat]

Didn't we successfully intercept an asteroid with some kind of rocket propelled craft already? How hard would it be to adapt that craft to carry a nuke? This is a small asteroid so I assume we only need something in the area of about 1 megaton. Of course if we want to be absolutely certain of destroying the asteroid we could load up a 100 megaton bomb, but I suspect that would be unnecessary, although much cooler.

Yea, the DART mission in 2022. I have no idea if it is difficult to to convert to nuclear.

 

[Runwildboys]

Didn't we successfully intercept an asteroid with some kind of rocket propelled craft already? How hard would it be to adapt that craft to carry a nuke? This is a small asteroid so I assume we only need something in the area of about 1 megaton. Of course if we want to be absolutely certain of destroying the asteroid we could load up a 100 megaton bomb, but I suspect that would be unnecessary, although much cooler.

Not only have they nudged one to a different course, but they've taken samples from one as well.

 

[Creeper]

Yea, the DART mission in 2022. I have no idea if it is difficult to to convert to nuclear.

The nuke would be a payload, so all it needs is something to attach it to, and a trigger mechanism. Obviously there might be some weight considerations for the initial launch but once in space I would think that the mass becomes less significant. A 1 megaton bomb would weight at least 1,000 lbs. That sounds like a lot if you are trying to lift it into space, but a space shuttle or a space capsule weighs a lot more than that. Probably the hardest part is convincing the public there is no danger of a failed launch becoming a nuclear disaster. That's my simple minded thought on it but I could be totally full of it too.

 

[gtb1943]

I'm not sure, maybe. If it's made of iron, I'm not sure how well that would work, or if it would just break pieces off, leaving a large chunk coming, at a more direct impact.

if we were to hit it and shatter it or break it into pieces, the likelihood of it continuing on the same course is very small.
Certainly better than doing nothing.

 

[SlammedZero]

Maybe we nudge it just enough to put it off course, it misses Earth, and then in 1 million years it hits somebody else's planet because of our nudge.
"Oops!! Sorry about that!!"

 

[Runwildboys]

Maybe we nudge it just enough to put it off course, it misses Earth, and then in 1 million years it hits somebody else's planet because of our nudge.
"Oops!! Sorry about that!!"

Lol.

It'd stay in our solar system until it hits something, just orbiting the sun, or maybe being eventually pulled into it.

 

[Runwildboys]

if we were to hit it and shatter it or break it into pieces, the likelihood of it continuing on the same course is very small.
Certainly better than doing nothing.

Yes, but a controlled push on a different course would be more predictable. If they could be sure that it'd shatter into pieces small enough to disintegrate in our atmosphere, that would probably be optimal. There's still the possibility that those pieces could destroy satellites or space stations.

 

[quickccc]

They increased the possibility of it hitting Earth. It now has a 2.3% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. This probability has increased from over 1% in January 2025. Astronomers plan to use the James Webb Space Telescope in March to get a better estimate of asteroid 2024 YR4's size and trajectory.

Sometimes it's easy to forget (as we're grabbing coffee, paying bills, and debating if pineapple belongs on pizza) that we’re just chilling on this rock, spinning at 1,000 mph, hurtling around the sun at 67,000 mph, all while dodging space debris, asteroids, and who knows what else flying through the galaxy.

The universe is basically a giant, chaotic pinball machine. The fact that we don’t get smacked by space rocks more often is kind of a miracle. It’s very humbling to think about.

or is it that it's secretly not reported if an asteroid hits in an deserted area that they can hide such a mystery.

i believe i've read reports and articles they've found space debris, small space rocks, but nothing like a DEEP IMPACT size asteroid that could caused Monster Catastrophic damage to Earth's Core

 

[Runwildboys]

or is it that it's secretly not reported if an asteroid hits in an deserted area that they can hide such a mystery.

i believe i've read reports and articles they've found space debris, small space rocks, but nothing like a DEEP IMPACT size asteroid that could caused Monster Catastrophic damage to Earth's Core

Well yeah, that's what shooting stars are. Most of them burn up completely, before they hit the ground, but many land. I've seen a few that didn't explode before impact (which I've also seen) and I'm fairly certain those survived.

 

[gtb1943]

Yes, but a controlled push on a different course would be more predictable. If they could be sure that it'd shatter into pieces small enough to disintegrate in our atmosphere, that would probably be optimal. There's still the possibility that those pieces could destroy satellites or space stations.

versus intact and hitting earth? You have to look at reducing the threat as much as possible; it might not be feasible to push it or nudge it. could be spinning or tumbling. You want perfect, it ain't happening, you have to do with what is most likely to work.

 

[gtb1943]

Maybe we nudge it just enough to put it off course, it misses Earth, and then in 1 million years it hits somebody else's planet because of our nudge.
"Oops!! Sorry about that!!"

yo man we just gave it a nudge. I know, we should have destroyed it but we got too fancy.

 

[Runwildboys]

versus intact and hitting earth? You have to look at reducing the threat as much as possible; it might not be feasible to push it or nudge it. could be spinning or tumbling. You want perfect, it ain't happening, you have to do with what is most likely to work.

They've already done it once, though I doubt that one was spinning much. Not sure what they'd do if it was. Personally, if they could guarantee pulverization, I'd prefer that.